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Glen B. Alleman
Boulder, Colorado
Performance-Based Project Management® in software intensive system of system
Interests: Earned Value, Risk, Cost, Program Performance, Integrated Master Plan, Integrated Master Schedule.
Recent Activity
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There's another rash of Twitter posters supporting the conjecture that decisions can be made about how to spend other people's money without estimating the impact and outcome of that decision. This is a core premise of #NoEstimates from the Original... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Herding Cats
The book is an easy text to write critique against. Nealry every paragraph so far has some nonsense ideas, naive concept or personal anecdote that could on;y be applicable to a small group pf coders spending their own money to develop a personal products. For $9 it's good entertainment on what not to do on most anything having to do when spending other people's money. I think I'll syndicate it out in chapters
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on #NoEstimates Book Review - Part 1 at Herding Cats
1 reply
Every paragraph has some cockamammy idea that is over the reservation in any normal business. Chapter 1 opens with (Carmen’s been asked to work a new project) “Is it twice as big as the Telemark project?” She asked, but her boss didn’t reply. “Five times bigger?” Still no comment. “Ten times bigger?” “Actually, it is a public sector project, so I guess you could say that it’s several orders of magnitude bigger than your Telemark project….” He finally admitted. Several orders of magnitude means 100 to 1,000 times bigger. And Order of Magnitude is 10x, where X is the order of the magnitude. This seems common for #NoEstimates advocates to confuse what this means. Vasco has suggested that not estimating can improve project performance by orders of magnitude - 10’s to 100’s to 1,00’s of times bigger. All of this by the way with no testable evidence, other than anecdotes (unverified anecdotes). “Oh…” Carmen was speechless. This could potentially be the largest software project in the country, and she was being lined up to manage that project. So the boss is giving a project to a manager that is several (I’ll assume 2 or 3 is several) orders of magnitude larger ‒ and a project that is the largest in the country ‒ and it’s a public sector project ‒ spending a sovereign’s money ‒ to a PM that has no experience with this size? This would be unfathomable in any non-trivial domain, where a sovereign issues contracts for software intensive systems, with strict contract performance items in the Statement of work. The example is not only notional, it is not credible. It’s an indication that Vasco has little understanding of how working for a sovereign actually takes place. “And we’ll need to present a bid by the end of next week!” Her boss looked excited. “So get your team on it. We need to close this deal now Carmen; it could change our company’s future! We need to submit our proposal as soon as possible!” Prepare a proposal for the largest project in the country in a week ‒ Preposterous!! I work proposals for Federal Agencies (sovereigns) for software intensive system of systems. Either Vasco has zero experience in this domain, or his readers are clueless about how large complex software system are procured by public sector firms ‒ most likely both. If this is an indicator of how naïve the book content is, this review is going to be short and sweet.
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on #NoEstimates Book Review - Part 1 at Herding Cats
1 reply
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I've started reading Vasco's book #NoEstimates and will write a detailed deconstruction. I got the Kindle version, so I have a $10 investment at risk. Let's start with some graphs that have been around and their misinformation that forms the... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Herding Cats
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When riding a single track like this one behind our neighborhood, I came to an understand of the tradeoffs between stability and control. In our conference sessions, we speak about how the Wright Brothers learned this concept as well. Here's... Continue reading
Posted 6 days ago at Herding Cats
There's lots of misinformation going around again in the #NoEstimates community We can't estimate things we've never done before - this is simply not true. There is not much that hasn't been done before in some form. If you truly... Continue reading
Posted 7 days ago at Herding Cats
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When we hear about all the suggested ways to improve the effectiveness of our development effort, if we're to going work on improvements, let's go where the REAL money is. Here's the IT budget for the Federal Government. This is... Continue reading
Posted Jun 15, 2016 at Herding Cats
The latest thread in agile is ... the continued paradigm of deadline-driven development is killing the benefits that Agile Software Development can bring. It is suggested by Neil Killick that ... ... using genuine time constraints as a factor in... Continue reading
Posted Jun 14, 2016 at Herding Cats
Here's some thoughts on the economics of software development using other people's money, after 3 weeks of working a proposal for a major software intensive system of systems using Agile. With the advent of Agile, the linear spend planning and... Continue reading
Posted Jun 13, 2016 at Herding Cats
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It's common to misquote famous quotes. The #NoEstimates advocates love to use a Deming quote It is wrong to suppose that if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it – a costly myth. This is used in support of... Continue reading
Posted Jun 4, 2016 at Herding Cats
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If we don't remember those who have died, they died for nothing From 1775 to Present - 2,852,901 Continue reading
Posted May 30, 2016 at Herding Cats
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The basis of #Noestimates is that decisions can be made in the presence of uncertainty without having to estimate the impact of those decisions Here's a research paper that hopefully will put an end to the nonsensical idea of #NoEstimates.... Continue reading
Posted May 27, 2016 at Herding Cats
Here's a straightforward approach to estimating on agile projects. This is an example of the estimating profession found on many domains. Continue reading
Posted May 26, 2016 at Herding Cats
Uncertainty is all around us. In the project world, uncertanty comes in two forms: Aleatory Uncertainty - the naturally occurring variances due to the underlying statistical processes of the project. These can be schedule variances, cost variances, and technical variances... Continue reading
Posted May 25, 2016 at Herding Cats
Wise men profit more from fools than fools from wise men; for the wise men shun the mistakes of fools, but fool do not imitate the success of the wise - Cato the Elder Any conjecture not based on testable... Continue reading
Posted May 24, 2016 at Herding Cats
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Estimating is part of all decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Accuracy and precision are two primary attributes of all estimates. We all know estimates are hard. But there are lots of hard things in the development of enterprise... Continue reading
Posted May 23, 2016 at Herding Cats
The on-going discussions that Decisions can be made in the absence of estimates reminds me of this concept. The conjecture that we can manage in the presence of uncertanty without estimating the impacts of our decisions, willfully ignores uncertainties in... Continue reading
Posted May 23, 2016 at Herding Cats
"It is the mark of an instructed mind to rest satisfied with the degree of precision that the nature of the subject admits, and not to seek exactness when only an approximation of the truth is possible." Aristotle Continue reading
Posted May 22, 2016 at Herding Cats
Do not deny the classical approach, simply as a reaction, or you will have created another pattern and trapped yourself there. — Bruce Lee Any new innovative or revolutionary suggestion in the software development world, needs to be anchored on... Continue reading
Posted May 19, 2016 at Herding Cats
A primary learning process is research. This process is part of all science, engineering, management processes. Here's a starting point for learning how to estimate in the presence of uncertainty on agile projects. This is the start of a literature... Continue reading
Posted May 15, 2016 at Herding Cats
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The conjecture of #NoEstimates starts with the first Tweet This conjectures - (there are) ... ways to make decisions with No Estimates ... is not founded on any principle of business management, microeconomics of decision making, or principles of probability... Continue reading
Posted May 8, 2016 at Herding Cats
Predictions are always difficult - especially about the future ― Niels Bohr ― Neandertal's Guide to Cost Estimating, Naval Aviation Systems This is a quote often used by those conjecturing that estimating is a waste. The quote is true of... Continue reading
Posted May 4, 2016 at Herding Cats
Guess: a conjecture based on little or no evidence Estimate: a guess made by an expert ― Neandertal's Guide to Cost Estimating, Naval Aviation Systems All project work is based on probabilities driven by statistical processes. All decisions made on... Continue reading
Posted May 2, 2016 at Herding Cats
All successful projects adhere to these five immutable principles during the lifecycle of the design, development, deployment, and operation. These principles are independent of any project or program domain or context in that domain. They are also independent of any... Continue reading
Posted May 1, 2016 at Herding Cats
The answer to this question starts with a simple principle based notion. Can you make a non-trivial (not de minimis) decision in the presence of uncertainty? The #Noestimates advocates didn’t start there. They started with “Estimates are a waste, stop... Continue reading
Posted Apr 26, 2016 at Herding Cats