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Glen B. Alleman
Boulder, Colorado
Performance-Based Project Management®
Interests: Earned Value, Risk, Cost, Program Performance, Integrated Master Plan, Integrated Master Schedule.
Recent Activity
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To achieve great things, two things are needed; a plan, and not quite enough time. − Leonard Bernstein The notion that planning is a waste is common in domains where mission critical, high risk - high reward, must work, type... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Herding Cats
If we were setting out to build a home, we would first lay out the floor plans, grouping each room by function and placing structural items within each room according to their best utility. This is not an arbitrary process... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Herding Cats
We gave a recent College of Performance Management webinar on using techncial progress to inform Earned Value. Here's the annotated charts. Continue reading
Posted 5 days ago at Herding Cats
After working with Ed it was a life changing experience. From that came the next step - the Irreducible and Reducible risk management paradigm. We're making progress at our client in getting those concepts into policy for the Integrated Baseline Review and EV reporting for "risk adjusted EAC." Handbook due out in Feb of 15.
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In a recent post to “Who Is Ed Conrow?” a responder asked about the differences between the PMBOK® Risk approach and the DoD PMBOK risk approaches as well as a summary of the book Effective Risk Management: Some Keys to... Continue reading
Posted 6 days ago at Herding Cats
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Scott Adams provides cartons of what not to do for most things technical. Software and Hardware. I actually saw him once, when he worked for PacBell in Pleasanton, CA. I was on a job at major oil company deploying document... Continue reading
Posted 7 days ago at Herding Cats
It seems lately there is an intentional disregard of the core principles of business development of software intensive systems. The #Noestimates community does, but other collections of developers do as well. We'd rather be writing code than estimating how much... Continue reading
Posted Oct 12, 2014 at Herding Cats
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Principles, Practices, and Processes are the basis of successful project management. It is popular in some circles to think that practices come before Principles. The principles of management, project management, software development and its management, product development management are immutable.... Continue reading
Posted Oct 11, 2014 at Herding Cats
In recent discussion (of sorts) about estimating - Not Estimating actually - I realized something that should have been obvious. I travel in a world not shared by the staunch advocates of #NoEstimates. They appear to be sole contributors. I... Continue reading
Posted Oct 10, 2014 at Herding Cats
Peter Kretzman has a nice post in his series on #NoEstimates. Peter and I share a skepticism of "making decisions in the absence of estimating the cost and impact" of those decisions. In Peter's current post there is a quote... Continue reading
Posted Oct 9, 2014 at Herding Cats
There is a popular quote used by many in the #NoEstimates community, that is sadly misinformed. Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge. − Lao Tseu This of course was from a 6th Century BC... Continue reading
Posted Oct 8, 2014 at Herding Cats
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The unassisted hand, and the understanding left to itself, posses but little power. Effects are produced by the means of instruments and helps, which the understanding requires no less than the hand. And as instruments either promote or regulate the... Continue reading
Posted Oct 6, 2014 at Herding Cats
Nothing is too wonderful to be true, if it is consistent with the laws of nature, and in such things as these, experiment is the best test of such consistency − Michael Faraday's Diary, March 19, 1849 When we hear... Continue reading
Posted Oct 5, 2014 at Herding Cats
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The are numerous conjectures about waste of software project estimates. Most are based on personal opinion divorced from the business processes of writing sofwtare for money. From the Introduction of the book to the left. Good estimates are key to... Continue reading
Posted Oct 3, 2014 at Herding Cats
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Complex and unstable environments encountered in project work - especially software development project work - calls for critical thinking by all participants. Complexity comes in part from technical uncertainties, starting with requirements for software capabilities. If there is uncertainty in... Continue reading
Posted Oct 2, 2014 at Herding Cats
We shall not cease from exploration We shall not cease from exploration and the end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started and be to arrive where we started and know the place for the first... Continue reading
Posted Oct 2, 2014 at Herding Cats
For all the words written and posted around estimating or not estimating - and I've contributed my share - the basis of estimates has yet to be addressed outside of a few people. @PeterKretzman @aritanninen @kalapaistos@fscavo come to mind. The... Continue reading
Posted Oct 1, 2014 at Herding Cats
The Lean Aerospace Initiative and the Lean Aerospace Initiative Consortium define processes applicable in many domains for applying lean. At first glance there is no natural connection between Lean and System Engineering. The ideas below are from a paper Igave... Continue reading
Posted Sep 30, 2014 at Herding Cats
Daniel Kahneman's and Amos Tversky's paper On The Reality of Cognitive Illusion. ‡ They suggest, through their research, that intuitive predictions and judgements are often mediated by a small number of distinctive mental operations, called judgement heuristics. These heuristics often... Continue reading
Posted Sep 29, 2014 at Herding Cats
Don Yeager has a small book mark sized card on 16 Consistent Characteristics of Greatness. I got my card at a PMI conference where he spoke. I'm repeating them here. Don's talk was about sports people he interviewed for magazines... Continue reading
Posted Sep 28, 2014 at Herding Cats
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Decision making in the presence of uncertainty is a normal business function as well as a normal technical development process. The world is full of uncertainty. Those seeking certainty will be woefully disappointed. Those conjecturing that decisions can't be made... Continue reading
Posted Sep 27, 2014 at Herding Cats
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WARNING RANT AGAINST INTENTIONAL IGNORANCE FOLLOWS This is one of those pictures tossed out at some conference that drives me crazy. It's uninformed, ignores the disciplines of developing software for money, and is meant to show how smart someone is,... Continue reading
Posted Sep 26, 2014 at Herding Cats
Most problems are self imposed and usually can be traced to lack of discipline. The foremost attribute of successful programs is discipline: Discipline to evolve and proclaim realistic cost goals; discipline to forego appealing but nonessential features; discipline to minimize... Continue reading
Posted Sep 25, 2014 at Herding Cats
A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing. − Oscar Wilde The inverse is true as well, we can't know the value of something until we know it's cost. Both the cost... Continue reading
Posted Sep 24, 2014 at Herding Cats
Toby, sorry for the delay. Let's start with some other's opinions on the Standish Report, http://goo.gl/Y0SqYV The core issue with the Standish report from a statistical analysis is the "self-selected" population. To infer outcomes from any sample we need to know things about the sample population. The Standish report doesn't say what the population is in total, how many of this total population responded, and what inferences can be statistically inferred from the respondents to the actual population. An example would be to go to a fast food restaurant and sample the number of people eating deep fried food at a very low price and infer how many people in the town do the same outside of that self-selected sample. The problem with the Standish approach is the survey processes itself. If they had selected a population of firms - a large enough population to be representative of the IT space they are trying to infer behaviours about, then asked a representative sample - and their techniques for selecting the sub-set of population - the sample population from the total population - and then asked for a response. From this response rate, they can then express the confidence that the answers are representative of the sample population and the total population. With this an error band on the reported number would be added to their report. This would then say 47% of projects are "challenged" with a ±15% confidence and 7% error on the confidence. Then a test of "randomness" - meaning the results are not actually correlated, but a random - and therefore meaningless for decision making. I'm saying this from a statistical decision making point of view. Standish I suspect publishes those numbers for marketing, since they provide "corrective services." It's the diet pill providers and the example of the before and after and the "small print" saying "your results may vary."
Toggle Commented Sep 24, 2014 on Statistical Significance at Herding Cats
1 reply