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Glen B. Alleman
Performance-Based Project Management® in software intensive system of system
Interests: Earned Value, Risk, Cost, Program Performance, Integrated Master Plan, Integrated Master Schedule.
Recent Activity
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There's a notion going around that ... “I don’t believe you can make a model of a possible future.” This ignores the principles of predictive analytics, and the direct management actions taken to produce outcomes from those analytical models found... Continue reading
Posted 8 hours ago at Herding Cats
This is a new Category on Herding Cats that comes from my finishing of the book Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data, and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics, Gary Smith. Of late I've encountered many people on the web... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Herding Cats
Just because you don't understand it, does mean it isn't so – Lemony Snicket Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Herding Cats
If you're working a project and haven't determined the "value at risk" for NOT knowing the cost, schedule and probability that the produced outcomes meet the needs of those paying, then I'd accept that you can't assign a "value" to estimating. You're examples of NE are not actually what NE advocates say. They say - with clarity - that estimates are waste and should be stopped. "time consuming careful estimates" start with Value at Risk If you're VAR is de minimis then spending more than that VAR is foolish. But if that VSAR is significant, you'd be foolish to not estimate and develop mitigation plans to protect that VAR. NE advocates start with the fallacy that assessment VAR is not needed, therefore estimates are waste You example needs to be adjusted for the uncertainties presence in that assessment. What are the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties that drive the risk? Without knowing those you can't make an informed decision of how much effort to put into estimating. You've described a symptom but not identified the cause of why your estimate was wrong. All successful projects evaluate the investment in correcting and preventing undesirable outcomes. To do that estimates must be made of the impacts of that risk, the cost to assess those impacts, the efficacy of the corrective and preventive actions needed to "Increase the probability of project success" Estimating is a tool that can provide those actionable outcomes of "keeping the project Green" So before making any decisions about estimating, determine the "value at risk." Then the answer to "how much effort should we invest" will be crystal clear. de minimis project? No estimates needed Betting the future of your company? Might want to invest the amount needed to assure you still have a job at the end
1 reply
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It's been said by an agile voice that ... Progress and value delivery are not the same thing. In the end, of course, value (to someone) is important. And in the standard-for-today structure of programming for money, we divide what... Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Herding Cats
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If you click on the link to the right, you'll get an HTML interactive chart Things I know about and practice Continue reading
Posted 5 days ago at Herding Cats
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The introduction to the #NoEstimates paradigm started with This statement is an ontological fallacy. An Ontological Fallacy is a statement of being or existing with an a priori theory about the organization of some paradigm. There is no principle on... Continue reading
Posted 5 days ago at Herding Cats
“We trained hard, but it seemed that every time we were beginning to form up into teams, we would be reorganized. I was to learn later in life that we tend to meet any new situation by reorganizing; and a... Continue reading
Posted 5 days ago at Herding Cats
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The Cone of Uncertainty is a useful approach to defining the expected range of uncertainty at specific stages in a project. The primary purpose of software estimation is not to predict a project’s outcome; it is to determine whether a... Continue reading
Posted Oct 5, 2018 at Herding Cats
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I met Hussain Bandukwaia recently and he is providing a Virtual PMO Summit. Here are the details And the one pager for the background Download PMO Virtual Summit - One Pager (Speakers-Promo Partners) Continue reading
Posted Oct 5, 2018 at Herding Cats
I am not much given to regret, so I puzzled over this one a while. Should have taken much more statistics in college, I think - Max Levchin, Paypal Co-Founder Probability and statistics is the basis of all decision making... Continue reading
Posted Oct 4, 2018 at Herding Cats
Never bring the problem-solving stage into the decision-making stage. Otherwise, you surrender yourself to the problem rather than the solution. — Robert Schuller No problem can be solved until we know the root cause of the problem. If you start... Continue reading
Posted Oct 3, 2018 at Herding Cats
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The unicorn is a magical creature with a fantastically perverted history. The myth of the Unicorn started with the Roman naturalist Pliny the Elder. Pliny wasn’t the most credible of writers (this was long before the Columbia School of Journalism).... Continue reading
Posted Oct 3, 2018 at Herding Cats
No sensible decision can be made without taking into account not only the world as it is, but the world as it might be — Isaac Asimov To make sensible decisions, in the presence of uncertainty - reducible and irreducible... Continue reading
Posted Oct 1, 2018 at Herding Cats
From "Facets of Uncertainty: Epistemic Uncertainty, non-Stationarity, Likelihood, Hypothesis Testing, and Communication," Keith Beven, Hydrological Sciences Journal, Volume 61, No. 9, pp. 1625-1665. Type of uncertainty Description Aleatory Uncertainty with stationary statistical characteristics. May be structured (bias, autocorrelation, long-term persistence)... Continue reading
Posted Sep 27, 2018 at Herding Cats
Probabilities are nothing but common sense reduced to calculation - Pierre-Simon LaPlace We should be cautious about calculating without thinking. Calculations are the easy part. The thinking is the hard part. The important question is whether the calculations make sense.... Continue reading
Posted Sep 27, 2018 at Herding Cats
Project failure starts when we can’t tell what “done” looks like in any meaningful way. Without some agreement on our vision of “done”, we’ll never recognize it when it arrives, except when we’ve run out of time or money or... Continue reading
Posted Sep 26, 2018 at Herding Cats
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The standard way of thinking about decisions is backward, says Ralph Keeney: People focus first on identifying alternatives rather than on articulating values. A problem arises and people react, placing the emphasis on mechanics and fixed choices instead of the... Continue reading
Posted Sep 25, 2018 at Herding Cats
Observational studies are inherently challenging because of the potential for self-selection bias and confounding factors. Always be wary of studies the use the data to discover the theory. - Standardd Deviations: Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data, and Other Ways to Lie... Continue reading
Posted Sep 24, 2018 at Herding Cats
Provocative assertions are provactive precisely because they are counterintuitive - which is a very good reason for skepticism. When you hear such an assertation, don't be easily persuaded that you are wrong. It may well be that the provocative assertation... Continue reading
Posted Sep 23, 2018 at Herding Cats
The systems approach is a technique for the application of a scientific approach to complex problems. It concentrates on the analysis and design of the whole, as distinct from the components or the parts. It insists upon looking at a... Continue reading
Posted Sep 22, 2018 at Herding Cats
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Estimation is part of project management. The most important estimates for the project manager are related to time and cost. And remember you're High School Economics class - The Value of something cannot be determined alone, you need to know... Continue reading
Posted Sep 19, 2018 at Herding Cats
And I think that still is true of this business - which is basically research and development - that you probably spend more time planning and training and designing for things to go wrong, and how you cope wth them,... Continue reading
Posted Sep 17, 2018 at Herding Cats
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Here's a paper that has been under constant development for several years now and is headed to a Journal and part of an upcoming book chapter. The motivation for the paper started when there were claims made the somehow agile... Continue reading
Posted Sep 16, 2018 at Herding Cats
It's popular in the agile community and especialy the #NoEstimates community to consider Beyond Budgeting to mean No Budgeting. Here are the actual principles of Beyond Budgeting Governance and Transparency Values - Bind people to a common cause; not a... Continue reading
Posted Sep 15, 2018 at Herding Cats