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Glen B. Alleman
Boulder, Colorado
Performance-Based Project Management®
Interests: Earned Value, Risk, Cost, Program Performance, Integrated Master Plan, Integrated Master Schedule.
Recent Activity
A metaphor in agile development of building a transportation device in the picture below. The logic goes like this: In the end I want a Panel Van to deliver groceries for my door-to-door organics company. I want vehicle for a... Continue reading
Posted 4 hours ago at Herding Cats
In a CrossTalk article Risk Management for Dummies, Tom DeMarco speaks about late software projects and the approaches for the solution. The notion of early start as the solution for late finish needs to address the core question, but fails... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Herding Cats
When I hear "we suck at estimating," or "we can't make good estimates, because people take them as commitments," I wonder what would be the answer if those statements were restated as... "We suck at designing good database schemas." "I... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Herding Cats
Risk Management is about many things - but it is first and foremost about estimating future outcomes. Suppose one of you wants to build a tower. Will he not first sit down and estimate the cost to see if he... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Herding Cats
Plans are critical, a schedule to implement that plan comes next. With the Plan, the sequence of the work is needed to assure the value to the customer is delivered in the proper order. That order is an order because... Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Herding Cats
Thanks for the QA, try again.
1 reply
When we read about a big IT problem, like... The first impulse is to use this information to support some or other position, like here's an example of estimate driven bad management. Without the logical conclusion of finding the actual... Continue reading
Posted 6 days ago at Herding Cats
Glen B. Alleman added a favorite at Everything Typepad
Jan 22, 2015
Many times I hear about Cost of Delay, Deliver Value, Measure story points, or Measure Stories. And a myriad of other assessments of project performance, all of which - OK, most of which are examples of Open Loop Control. Back... Continue reading
Posted Jan 21, 2015 at Herding Cats
In project work we're looking to create or change something, in some defined period of time, for a defined cost. This means we're going to spend money now for some future outcome. The elements that go into this effort to... Continue reading
Posted Jan 19, 2015 at Herding Cats
When we hear descriptons of Dilbert style management, with posting and reposting Dilbert cartons showing pointy haired bosses Doing Stupid Things on Purpose and no actionable advice on how to take corrective actions - then you know for sure the... Continue reading
Posted Jan 18, 2015 at Herding Cats
The use of Bayesian Statistics in project work is well developed. Here's an example of the approach. The drivers for each uncertainty can be modeled to produce on estimate of the risk of the project not producing the desired outcomes.... Continue reading
Posted Jan 18, 2015 at Herding Cats
When I hear what are the odds of success for a project, it tells me there is an undertstanding gap in how statistical processes are used in projects to produce probabilistic estimates of three things: The probability of completing on... Continue reading
Posted Jan 17, 2015 at Herding Cats
Qualitative risk analysis includes methods for prioritizing the identified risks for further action, such as risk response. The project members must revisit qualitative risk analysis during the project’s lifecycle. When the team repeats qualitative analysis for individual risks, trends may... Continue reading
Posted Jan 16, 2015 at Herding Cats
When we hear about making decisions in the absence of estimates of the impact from that decision, the cost of making that decision - the opportunity cost, which is the basis of Microeconomics, or best of all the possible alternatives... Continue reading
Posted Jan 14, 2015 at Herding Cats
Planning for an uncertain future calls for a shift in information management — from single numbers to probability distributions — in order to correct the "flaw of averages." This, in turn, gives rise to the prospect of a Chief Probability... Continue reading
Posted Jan 13, 2015 at Herding Cats
When we hear ... "Don't fall in love with your plan, it is almost certainly wrong " let's reflect on advice from IEEE Std 730-2014 Plan Management: It is obvious that the project must be managed during its execution, but... Continue reading
Posted Jan 12, 2015 at Herding Cats
When we hear about some new fangled way of writing software for money, first ask in what domain has this new idea been applied, and what were the measures of effectiveness and measures of performance for that approach? Then ask... Continue reading
Posted Jan 11, 2015 at Herding Cats
Another twitter conversation - of sorts - prompted a thought about the purpose of planning, from the Quote of the Day post. In the enterprise IT world, planning and plans provide the road map for development and deployment of systems... Continue reading
Posted Jan 10, 2015 at Herding Cats
It was overheard on Twitter "Don't fall in love with your plan, it is almost certainly wrong " A plan is a strategy for success. Strategies are hypothesise . Hypothesise need tests to verify - just like you learned in... Continue reading
Posted Jan 9, 2015 at Herding Cats
For any model, you'll need to create a mechanism for the underlying statistical processes of the "variable of interest." In this case the probability that a hacker will appear. That data may be available outside in a database. But as well a model for that actual vulnerability. There are tools we use to assess those by looking at all the access points and other external facing systems.. With that information - and I know that's hard to come by - a probability distribution function can be generated from which you can sample data and performance analysis. Google "modeling security of software systems" as a start. I'll ask our cyber team what the tool is they use for assessing external threats.
1 reply
Decision theory is concerned with the problem of making decisions. Statistical decision theory is decision making in the presence of statistical knowledge, by understanding some of the uncertainties involved in the problem. Decision theory deals with the situations where decisions... Continue reading
Posted Jan 8, 2015 at Herding Cats
It has been conjectured that ... What in the begining you thought you needed is never what you actually need Fails to realize several critical success factors for project success... Without stating what capabilities we need from the project, we... Continue reading
Posted Jan 7, 2015 at Herding Cats
When we hear something like estimates are the smell of dysfunction. That's a logical fallacy. Estimating is a business and engineering activities that produces numbers, confidence intervals on those numbers, and confidence interval on the confidence intervals. We have an... Continue reading
Posted Jan 4, 2015 at Herding Cats
There is a popular notion - and a fundamentally false one - that we can't estimate, forecast, or plan something we haven't done before. Research supports the hypothesis that there are universal principles of creativity that are the basis for... Continue reading
Posted Jan 3, 2015 at Herding Cats