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Glen B. Alleman
Boulder, Colorado
Performance-Based Project Management®
Interests: Earned Value, Risk, Cost, Program Performance, Integrated Master Plan, Integrated Master Schedule.
Recent Activity
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One suggestion from the #NoEstimates community is the use of empirical data of past performance. This is many time called yesterdays weather. First let's make sure we're not using just the averages from yesterdays weather. And even adding the variance... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Herding Cats
I know. It''s because the World Scientific publisher arrangements I sure.
1 reply
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The continued lack of understanding of the underlying probability and statistics of making decisions in the presence of uncertainty to plague the discussion of estimating software. All elements of all projects are statistical in nature. This statistical behaviour - reducible... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Herding Cats
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The Estimation problem in enterprise IT and Software Intensive System has been with us for decades if not from the beginning of time in the software business. While not software, but a hardware implementation of an algorithm, Alan Turing's problem... Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Herding Cats
I have a card on my desk with a cute quote May the Sun Always Shine Down on You ...as a constant reminder that there is a giant nuclear-powered fireball in the sky just barely holding it together. Simply said... Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Herding Cats
The ARIMA approach is of course sensitive to three parameters - A, R, MA, but a default 0,1,1 gives a sense of possible outcomes. The time series provided by the No Estimates advocates are not likley "random"in the stochastic sense, but are driven by som,e underlying process. The core point is that suggesting past performance is an indicator of the future in the absence of assessing the dynamic behaviours of the past and of course "risk adjusting"the future for it's underlying uncertainties is required for any credible estimate to complete and estimate at completion. R's FORECAST function provide tuning as well. I sue Sumway's Time Series Anlaysis and Its Applications, - Chap 3 ARIMA models; Brockwell and Davis Intro to Time Series and Forecasting, as a starting point for our cost and schedule forecasting. PCA is another tool we've applied to determine the "drivers"of the variances in the project structure that's be explored.
Toggle Commented 4 days ago on Flaw of Averages at Herding Cats
1 reply
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There is a popular notion in agile that incremental delivery of Features allows the project to stop at any time and deliver value to those paying for the work. This is another concept of agile, in the absence of a... Continue reading
Posted 5 days ago at Herding Cats
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There is a popular notion in agile estimating that a time series of past performance can be used to forecast the future performance of the project. Here's a clip of that time series.It is conjectured that data like this can... Continue reading
Posted 6 days ago at Herding Cats
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Software can provide increased benefits to internal users, with the firm paying for the development or acquisition of that software. Software can also reduce costs to the users in exchange for the cost of development or acquisition of the software.... Continue reading
Posted 7 days ago at Herding Cats
Science is the great antidote to the poison of enthusiasm and superstition. - Adam Smith Wealth of Nations If you hear a conjecture or a claim that sounds like it is not what you were taught in school, doesn't seem... Continue reading
Posted Mar 22, 2015 at Herding Cats
When I hear about requirements churn, bad requirements management - which is really bad business management, emergent requirements that turn over 20% a month for a complete turnover in 4 months - it's clear there is a serious problem in... Continue reading
Posted Mar 22, 2015 at Herding Cats
The quote in the title is from Tim Lister. It says volumes about project management and project failure. It also means that managing risk is managing in the presence of uncertainty. And managing in the presence of uncertainty means making... Continue reading
Posted Mar 22, 2015 at Herding Cats
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Microeconomics is a branch of economics that studies the behavior of individuals and small impacting organizations in making decisions on the allocation of limited resources. All engineering is constrained optimization. How do we take the resources we've been given and... Continue reading
Posted Mar 21, 2015 at Herding Cats
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The Feynman Lectures were a staple of my education, including have Feynman come to UC Irvine a speak to the Student Physics Society on his current work in Quantum Electrodynamics (QED). The 3 volume set is still in our library.... Continue reading
Posted Mar 21, 2015 at Herding Cats
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Jim Benson has a thought provoking post on the Five Pathologies of estimating. Each is likely present in an organization that has not moved up the maturity scale. Maturity levels in the CMMI paradigm. The post, like many notions in... Continue reading
Posted Mar 20, 2015 at Herding Cats
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After a conversation of sorts about release early and release often it's clear that without a domain this notion is a very nice platitude with no way to test its applicability in an actual business and technical environment. Like many... Continue reading
Posted Mar 20, 2015 at Herding Cats
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On twitter there are several threads which speak to an underlying issue of managing in the presence of uncertainty. Ranging from we can make decisions without estimating to you can't possibly estimate the outcomes that occur in the future to... Continue reading
Posted Mar 19, 2015 at Herding Cats
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There is a phrase in agile deliver early and deliver often. Let's test this potential platitude in the enterprise and software intensive systems business Let's look at Delivery Often. Often needs to match the business rhythm of the project or... Continue reading
Posted Mar 18, 2015 at Herding Cats
It's not so much about the creativity of the work, it's about emoting on an economically based schedule. - Sean Penn talking with John Krakauer At the end of the day all the work we do is about converting money... Continue reading
Posted Mar 17, 2015 at Herding Cats
I have not misunderstood the nature of FN's I'd like research that says geometric progress encourages linear scaling in ways FN's don't from a statistically significant sample of estimates versus actuals. Geometric progression follows closely the very large database of estimates and actual found at NASA and CR (Central Repository) at PARCA (Performance Assessment and Root Cause Analyses) and the bayesian network model of coupled tasks. As one who leads "basis of estimate" work in Software Intensive Software in space and defense, once you reach the 16 or 23 level, you've got no confidence in anything - stop estimating, you're guessing. The notion in agile of the Cone of Uncertainty is misused in ways that make my head spin. Projects are started with zero clue of what done looks like. It's simply bad management.
1 reply
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When we hear we don't need deadlines; we don't need estimates; we can slice work small enough to have each and every activity be the same size, with no variance; we can use small samples with ±30% variance to forecast... Continue reading
Posted Mar 15, 2015 at Herding Cats
March 14, 2015 3/14/15 at 9:26:53 AM π=3.141592653 Continue reading
Posted Mar 14, 2015 at Herding Cats
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At a client site in Sacramento, CA off and on since last December. Driving back to hotel tonight, there was a radio show on the current Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (Version 3). A former Colorado neighbor is an earthquake... Continue reading
Posted Mar 13, 2015 at Herding Cats
Trevor. Yes that is a direct quote from one of the 4 recognized #NoEstimates "thought leaders." It seems there is a lack of understanding of the basic mathematics of estimates or the forecasts those processes produce. It seems more than just not understanding, there is willful intent to not understand.
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Came across this puzzling tweet today ... real empirical data & using probability to forecast are worlds apart. I don't buy "estimation uses data" argument. This is always reminds me of Wolfgang Pauli's remark to a colleague who showed him... Continue reading
Posted Mar 12, 2015 at Herding Cats