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Glen B. Alleman
Performance-Based Project Management® in software intensive system of system
Interests: Earned Value, Risk, Cost, Program Performance, Integrated Master Plan, Integrated Master Schedule.
Recent Activity
A skeptic will question claims, then embrace the evidence. A denier will question claims, then reject the evidence. - Neil deGrase Tyson Think of this whenever there is a conjecture that has no testable evidence of the claim. And think... Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Herding Cats
Avoid software project horror stories - check the reality value of the estimate first from Harold van Heeringen Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Herding Cats
A common assertion in the Agile community is we focus on Value over Cost. Both are equally needed. Both must be present to make informed decisions. Both are random variables. As random variables, both need estimates to make informed decisions.... Continue reading
Posted 5 days ago at Herding Cats
Where You Stand Depends On Where You Sit This notion of the basis of all good discussions. It is also the basis of discussions that get us in trouble. For example, I sit in a FAR 34.2/DFARS 234.2 Federal Procurement... Continue reading
Posted 7 days ago at Herding Cats
On our morning ride, the conversation came around to Systems. Some of our group or like me - a techie - a few others are business people in finance and ops. The topic was what's a system and how does... Continue reading
Posted 7 days ago at Herding Cats
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There is a popular graph showing project performance versus the estimated project performance in "Schedule Estimation and Uncertainty Surrounding the Cone of Uncertainty," Todd Little, IEEE Software, May/June 2006. This chart (above) shows data from samples of software development projects... Continue reading
Posted Jul 17, 2016 at Herding Cats
The question of the viability of #NoEstimates starts with a simple principles based notion. Can you make a non-trivial (NOT de minimis) decision in the presence of uncertainty without estimating? The #NoEstimates advocates didn’t start there. They started with “Estimates... Continue reading
Posted Jul 10, 2016 at Herding Cats
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Sitting in our seats at last night's Rockie v. Phillies game and dawned on me the analogy between Moneyball strategy and good management of software development. In Moneyball, Billy Beane was faced with a limited budget for players. He hired... Continue reading
Posted Jul 9, 2016 at Herding Cats
There appears to be a resurgence in the No Projects conversation, similar to the No Estimates notion that has been around for awhile. I’m going to suggest that most of the disconnects around ideas of software development ‒ from No... Continue reading
Posted Jul 8, 2016 at Herding Cats
I work on Agile software development programs. Most everyone in Boulder Colorado works on Agile development programs. We meet once a month or so for coffee and talk about Agile. We have formal MeetUps hosted by local vendors - Rally,... Continue reading
Posted Jul 7, 2016 at Herding Cats
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It's popular in the #NoEstimates community to claim Forecasting is not Estimating. Using English Dictionaries, they build a case using logical like this. It's been repeating nearly continuously since the start of the discussion about how to make decisions in... Continue reading
Posted Jul 6, 2016 at Herding Cats
The misuse of Hofstadter's Law is common in many agile development domains. The quote is ... It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law This quote is misused to suggest that estimating can't... Continue reading
Posted Jul 5, 2016 at Herding Cats
Alfonso, Thanks for the read. The core starting point with #Noestimates is that somehow, by some unstated processes, "estimating is the smell of dysfunction." There of course is not evidence presented to support this conjecture. As well there is no evidence that "Not Estimating" will corrective this unnamed dysfunction. It's just that an unsubstantiated conjecture puit forward by a group of developers. developers who spend other people's money, work in non-governance based business, speak at conferences and have a "following" of like minded developers. Attempts to engage in a open debate of the Principles of"making decision in the presence of uncertanty without estimates" is not possible, since the NE advocates block any and all who ask for evidence that their conjecture is based on any principle of business management. Our continued presentation of good software development processes seems to be the only counter argument toi the willfully ignorance of the principles of microeconomics of decisions making needed for credible managerial finance. Thanks for the follow BTW is this you? https://www.linkedin.com/in/alfonsofigueroa
1 reply
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There's another rash of Twitter posters supporting the conjecture that decisions can be made about how to spend other people's money without estimating the impact and outcome of that decision. This is a core premise of #NoEstimates from the Original... Continue reading
Posted Jun 25, 2016 at Herding Cats
The book is an easy text to write critique against. Nealry every paragraph so far has some nonsense ideas, naive concept or personal anecdote that could on;y be applicable to a small group pf coders spending their own money to develop a personal products. For $9 it's good entertainment on what not to do on most anything having to do when spending other people's money. I think I'll syndicate it out in chapters
Toggle Commented Jun 25, 2016 on #NoEstimates Book Review - Part 1 at Herding Cats
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Every paragraph has some cockamammy idea that is over the reservation in any normal business. Chapter 1 opens with (Carmen’s been asked to work a new project) “Is it twice as big as the Telemark project?” She asked, but her boss didn’t reply. “Five times bigger?” Still no comment. “Ten times bigger?” “Actually, it is a public sector project, so I guess you could say that it’s several orders of magnitude bigger than your Telemark project….” He finally admitted. Several orders of magnitude means 100 to 1,000 times bigger. And Order of Magnitude is 10x, where X is the order of the magnitude. This seems common for #NoEstimates advocates to confuse what this means. Vasco has suggested that not estimating can improve project performance by orders of magnitude - 10’s to 100’s to 1,00’s of times bigger. All of this by the way with no testable evidence, other than anecdotes (unverified anecdotes). “Oh…” Carmen was speechless. This could potentially be the largest software project in the country, and she was being lined up to manage that project. So the boss is giving a project to a manager that is several (I’ll assume 2 or 3 is several) orders of magnitude larger ‒ and a project that is the largest in the country ‒ and it’s a public sector project ‒ spending a sovereign’s money ‒ to a PM that has no experience with this size? This would be unfathomable in any non-trivial domain, where a sovereign issues contracts for software intensive systems, with strict contract performance items in the Statement of work. The example is not only notional, it is not credible. It’s an indication that Vasco has little understanding of how working for a sovereign actually takes place. “And we’ll need to present a bid by the end of next week!” Her boss looked excited. “So get your team on it. We need to close this deal now Carmen; it could change our company’s future! We need to submit our proposal as soon as possible!” Prepare a proposal for the largest project in the country in a week ‒ Preposterous!! I work proposals for Federal Agencies (sovereigns) for software intensive system of systems. Either Vasco has zero experience in this domain, or his readers are clueless about how large complex software system are procured by public sector firms ‒ most likely both. If this is an indicator of how naïve the book content is, this review is going to be short and sweet.
Toggle Commented Jun 24, 2016 on #NoEstimates Book Review - Part 1 at Herding Cats
1 reply
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I've started reading Vasco's book #NoEstimates and will write a detailed deconstruction. I got the Kindle version, so I have a $10 investment at risk. Let's start with some graphs that have been around and their misinformation that forms the... Continue reading
Posted Jun 24, 2016 at Herding Cats
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When riding a single track like this one behind our neighborhood, I came to an understand of the tradeoffs between stability and control. In our conference sessions, we speak about how the Wright Brothers learned this concept as well. Here's... Continue reading
Posted Jun 21, 2016 at Herding Cats
There's lots of misinformation going around again in the #NoEstimates community We can't estimate things we've never done before - this is simply not true. There is not much that hasn't been done before in some form. If you truly... Continue reading
Posted Jun 20, 2016 at Herding Cats
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When we hear about all the suggested ways to improve the effectiveness of our development effort, if we're to going work on improvements, let's go where the REAL money is. Here's the IT budget for the Federal Government. This is... Continue reading
Posted Jun 15, 2016 at Herding Cats
The latest thread in agile is ... the continued paradigm of deadline-driven development is killing the benefits that Agile Software Development can bring. It is suggested by Neil Killick that ... ... using genuine time constraints as a factor in... Continue reading
Posted Jun 14, 2016 at Herding Cats
Here's some thoughts on the economics of software development using other people's money, after 3 weeks of working a proposal for a major software intensive system of systems using Agile. With the advent of Agile, the linear spend planning and... Continue reading
Posted Jun 13, 2016 at Herding Cats
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It's common to misquote famous quotes. The #NoEstimates advocates love to use a Deming quote It is wrong to suppose that if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it – a costly myth. This is used in support of... Continue reading
Posted Jun 4, 2016 at Herding Cats
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If we don't remember those who have died, they died for nothing From 1775 to Present - 2,852,901 Continue reading
Posted May 30, 2016 at Herding Cats