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George Phillies
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Looking at the Bremen map, there appears to be a larger than typical for this season polyna south of the Nares strait. But perhaps I misremember. Is the ice bridge still in place?
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
The film The Deadly Mantis used encapsulation in a glacier that finally calved. The plot assumed that there has been continuous ice in the Arctic for the last 60 million years. Minor technical issues with the laws of aerodynamics might also be queried. The center of Greenland two miles up, was in the year 1800 challenging to reach, and might have been viewed as a good choice for hiding that which man was not meant to know.
Toggle Commented Apr 7, 2014 on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
The hard part is the 'gets there in the year 1800', with 2 points for creativity to the 1800 hours interpretation. Without knowing the type of novel, one notes as transport methods 'dedicated traveller, plans trip as one way to deliver box, return certainly not', Frankenstein, witch with broomstick. I believe period hydrogen balloons were not up to free ballooning trips of that length, even assuming freakish winds. However, given that the author has a solution,with extreme luck the object might make a few cycles through the ice and appear in -- your mileage may vary -- 1830.
Toggle Commented Apr 7, 2014 on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
It is perhaps noteworthy that the Bremen map is showing incomplete ice cover almost up to the pole, in late February. That strikes me as being a bit radical relative to years past, but perhaps I misremember.
Net worth of the world: Full cost of replacing everything. It's a considerable multiple of the GDP of the world, but I do not know which multiple. For example, the city in which I live has a considerable number of structures going back a century, and some going back two centuries; that's a lot of investment, which would need to be replaced using current costs. I do not know where this number has been computed, though.
Toggle Commented Jul 26, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
Clathrate release is a phase transition. Depending on T,P clathrates either are or are not stable.
Toggle Commented Jul 26, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
" “extra $60 trillion (net present value) of mean climate change impacts” — comparable to total global GDP at present" The comparison is invalid, because the units are completely different. One is in dollars, the others is in dollars per year. A rational comparison would be between the cost and the current net worth of the world, or between the cost and the total national product over the years that the damage was inflicted.
Toggle Commented Jul 26, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
A-team Beautiful reconstruction. For the benefit of the graphically feeble, such as myself, which way is north in those pictures? I had assumed top of frame, meaning the thing is breaking off and heading north, but perhaps I am upside down. Why north? Incidentally, as that thing is huge, it is not moving that slowly; over the days you cover it moves something like a quarter of its length or around 20 kilometers. On a slightly different note, the ice cube count is falling. The cryosphere sea ice area has fallen a half-million square kilometers in three days.
Toggle Commented Jul 20, 2013 on Ice pack in full at Arctic Sea Ice
For those of us not expert in photographic reconnaissance, is there a current update on the scenic Nares Strait?
Toggle Commented Jul 17, 2013 on Nares Express is ready to leave at Arctic Sea Ice
The current IJIS graph http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm appears to be showing the extent starting to fall off the cliff. It started higher than last year, but is currently matching last year both in extent and in slope (first derivative). However, the period of the cliff fall is sufficiently short that it might be a fluctuation.
Toggle Commented Jun 8, 2013 on PIOMAS June 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Climate Fiction from the 1950s, some really odd, all from memories of the epoch: J G Ballard, multiple novels The Wind from Nowhere The Drowned Earth Neville Shute (? so my memory says) We Who Survived...the 5th(iirc) Ice Age The Storm At least one episode of Science Fiction Theater ... meteor strikes hurricane, really spins it up, to an otherwise impossible iirc 230 MPH. George Phillies ...former librarian, MIT Science Fiction Society
Toggle Commented May 24, 2013 on Russia abandoning ice station at Arctic Sea Ice
Readers who examine the Point Barrow view camera http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/webcam-uaf-barrow-seaice-images/current/image will note that the ocean is still frozen solid -- at least, I am fairly sure that is ice, not big waves -- but if you look at the lower left of the photo you may be able to spot the melt pond with shallow liquid water in it. That's at least somewhat warm.
Toggle Commented May 22, 2013 on When the Arctic was 8 °C warmer at Arctic Sea Ice
Readers may find of interest the analysis of historian Corelli Barnett, his Pride and Fall sequence on the century+ collapse of England, on the Liberal Arts education, not to be confused with the trivium or quadrivium. He viewed it as a major cause of the collapse of the English, not least because you ended up with managers few of whom had scientific engineering training. The US has had the same problem, leading, e.g., to the relative dates of adoption of the basic oxygen steelmaking process here and in Europe. The medieval liberal arts included, as an aside, the most advanced mathematics known at the time. OK, all you liberal arts majors, do you measure up? Are you familiar the theory of rings and fields, complex analysis, and differential geometry at the proof level? Yes, I do think it is reasonable to have history as a major. The number of history majors should be a reasonable multiple of the number of professional historians that we add each year.
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"...the graduate who has memorized some rote procedures to perform on preset challenges..." The gentleman's defense of the liberals arts consists of slandering engineering, the sciences, mathematics, economics,... Let me suggest that to the contrary it is the people who work in the challenging disciplines who must learn to attack matters in an open-ended way, and the undergraduate majors in the liberal arts who get by with, well, whatever. If the useful disciplines were so much "... memorized some rote procedures to perform on preset challenges..." rather than learning how to think hard, a task so challenging that some people choose to die instead, then why do we not see more students dropping out of Feminist Theology to major in Physics? George Phillies Professor of Physics and Associated Biochemistry Faculty and Interactive Media and Game Development Associated Faculty (and yes I have published in all three areas) Worcester Polytechnic Institute
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Going up to the first graph here, some of those empirical fits are subject to empirical confirmation or falsification very soon. For example, the log fit shows a zero this coming summer. The next fit hits zero two years later. Etc.
Toggle Commented Dec 23, 2012 on The real AR5 bombshell at Arctic Sea Ice
Antarctic melting, absolute worst case analysis: Suppose the entirety of our solar power input became available for melting the Antarctic, in the sense that the temperature over the globe dropped to 0.1 C and all excess solar energy were magically transported to Antarctica to melt ice; what is the upper limit on how fast the ice melts? You have to supply the heat of fusion, and Sol only supplies so much a year, of which a certain part in the end does not melt ice and re-radiates into space. Times much shorter than this are wrong via energy conservation. I infer that this time is not the time mentioned above, which was the time given that the energy has to reach Antarctica to make it melt. Comments?
Accuracy of these numbers? See the popular science report http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2012/sep/13/less-arctic-sea-ice-satellites proposing that the amount of ice may be being overstated by satellite reconnaissance, to that there is actually a bit less ice than some numbers indicate.
The radioactive isotope is carbon fourteen. Carbon thirteen is the rarer stable isotope.
and based on the last few years, the anomaly will likely heal up to -7 or-7.5 thousand, and then flatten out until next year, when it will fall again.
Toggle Commented Sep 8, 2012 on Cycle plots of Arctic sea ice at Arctic Sea Ice
I may have missed the prior announcement but the new 9/2 PSC ice volume curve is up http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/ showing progressive recovery of the anomaly.
Toggle Commented Sep 7, 2012 on Cycle plots of Arctic sea ice at Arctic Sea Ice
September 2 AM early. There is some divergence of the trend on DMI and IJIS namely DMI seems to be leveling out, and IJIS is falling rapidly, no matter what you say about the final pixels. You could say that what is left is almost all quite substantial if thinner and thinner, except for the Laptev area, but it is a bit different that what was seen last month.
Looking at IJIS measurements from past years, one might convince oneself that a normal behavior seen in some years, looking back a while and forward for some weeks, is that the ice amount declines roughly linearly in time. The end comes at different dates in different years. That pattern appears to be repeating this year as the JIS ice quantity appears to be falling close to linearly with time, just at a (much) steeper slope than in other years. Of course, if you believed that, you would conclude that IJIS will bottom someplace near 2-2.5 million square kilometers sometime mid-to-later part of the month.
Toggle Commented Aug 30, 2012 on ASI 2012 update 10: (wh)at a loss at Arctic Sea Ice
With respect to mountain snow, recall that if it falls as rain, or melts sooner, it still flows downhill. Indeed, if the precipitation in depth of water does not change, if it falls as rain rather than snow more of it flows downhill because it does not spend months ablating first. Only if precipitation amounts change does the water flow down local rivers change a great deal.
Indeed, while there are day to day wiggles and this first day issue, the slopes on dmi and ijis appear to be getting steeper rather than shallower,though not by a great deal.
It is perhaps noteworthy that the DMI graph at http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php has resumed the remarkably rapid drop that it was showing when the Great Arctic Cyclone descended. The amount of recent steep drop seems larger than 'hiccup without significance'. Extrapolating that rate through to the end of August, even though we are in a period when in past years the rate of decay of 30% ice cover seems to have been fairly constant over the month, appears optimistic; trending below the 2 million level. The rate of decline of the DMI 30% ice is still impressive.