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George Phillies
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There was indeed telephone in that period. Returning to a century ago, my late grandfather had just finished the local equivalent of High School, near Pecs, Hungary, and was about to enroll as an undergraduate in the Royal Hungarian Polytechnic Institute in Budapest. (He finished in 1919 in Mechanical Engineering, exactly 50 years before I completed my undergraduate degrees). He was on vacation with relatives someplace near the Serbian border. The day after the assassination of the Archduke, my greatgrandfather telephoned him to report that the assassination had occurred, there would surely be war, so he should come home as soon as possible.
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Antarctic ice cap volume is declining markedly. When the fresh water of the melt hits the Antarctic Sea, which is very cold, it tends to freeze, and about half the volume outflow shows up in winter as extra sea area...that will melt next summer. The exact details of the process have not been completely modelled...it mostly goes away in the summer...but the increase in antarctic winter ice volume is about a tenth the arctic volume loss. The proposal that there is a simple cycle between the two hemispheres, or that Antarctic ice is progressively increasing in the last two decades, is dramatically rejected by the 2012 data, where ice coverage was remarkably low in both hemispheres.
Toggle Commented Jul 15, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
The 6/23 AQUA setting on the Kane block at http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/kane.uk.php appears to show a very substantial number of blocks of ice that have broken free and are moving equatorward at the Nares Ice Bridge.
6/22 evening Nares is now hiding under cloud. However, the IJIS SIE is showing a marked steepening in the last couple of days.
Once again, having been wrong several times before, I shall propose that I see a chunk of ice breaking off from the Nares ice bridge and heading equatorward, visible in the 6/21 images at DMI as a white triangle. Once again I expect that I will not be convincing in my report.
Based on a casual reading, an obvious question becomes: What is the North Atlantic Oscillation doing this year?
Toggle Commented May 25, 2014 on Greenland 2013 in review at Arctic Sea Ice
If you look hard at the picture of the Nares ice bridge for 5/22, as seen at the dmi site, you note at the northeasternmost part of the polyna a long very pointy trail of what appears to be ice fragments headed off into the polyna in about the 8 o'clock direction...a trail not there in the past, and advancing into the ice in about the two-o'clock direction a rumpled appearance. It might be proposed that the Nares ice bridge is contemplating letting go.
Toggle Commented May 23, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 1: melt pond May at Arctic Sea Ice
Readers interested in seeing melt ponds, open water, floating ice, landfast ice, and melting frozen soil, all in one picture in which you can see small details, may find the Barrow webcam http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/webcam-uaf-barrow-seaice-images/current/image to be of some interest.
Toggle Commented May 4, 2014 on More on melt ponds at Arctic Sea Ice
Depending on whose algorithm you trust, sea ice are is now approximately as low as it has ever been for this date, more or less tied with a couple of years ago. Note the IJIS graph in particular.
Toggle Commented Apr 24, 2014 on Miscellanea at Arctic Sea Ice
Looking at the Bremen map, there appears to be a larger than typical for this season polyna south of the Nares strait. But perhaps I misremember. Is the ice bridge still in place?
Toggle Commented Apr 15, 2014 on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
The film The Deadly Mantis used encapsulation in a glacier that finally calved. The plot assumed that there has been continuous ice in the Arctic for the last 60 million years. Minor technical issues with the laws of aerodynamics might also be queried. The center of Greenland two miles up, was in the year 1800 challenging to reach, and might have been viewed as a good choice for hiding that which man was not meant to know.
Toggle Commented Apr 7, 2014 on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
The hard part is the 'gets there in the year 1800', with 2 points for creativity to the 1800 hours interpretation. Without knowing the type of novel, one notes as transport methods 'dedicated traveller, plans trip as one way to deliver box, return certainly not', Frankenstein, witch with broomstick. I believe period hydrogen balloons were not up to free ballooning trips of that length, even assuming freakish winds. However, given that the author has a solution,with extreme luck the object might make a few cycles through the ice and appear in -- your mileage may vary -- 1830.
Toggle Commented Apr 7, 2014 on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
It is perhaps noteworthy that the Bremen map is showing incomplete ice cover almost up to the pole, in late February. That strikes me as being a bit radical relative to years past, but perhaps I misremember.
Net worth of the world: Full cost of replacing everything. It's a considerable multiple of the GDP of the world, but I do not know which multiple. For example, the city in which I live has a considerable number of structures going back a century, and some going back two centuries; that's a lot of investment, which would need to be replaced using current costs. I do not know where this number has been computed, though.
Toggle Commented Jul 26, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
Clathrate release is a phase transition. Depending on T,P clathrates either are or are not stable.
Toggle Commented Jul 26, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
" “extra $60 trillion (net present value) of mean climate change impacts” — comparable to total global GDP at present" The comparison is invalid, because the units are completely different. One is in dollars, the others is in dollars per year. A rational comparison would be between the cost and the current net worth of the world, or between the cost and the total national product over the years that the damage was inflicted.
Toggle Commented Jul 26, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
A-team Beautiful reconstruction. For the benefit of the graphically feeble, such as myself, which way is north in those pictures? I had assumed top of frame, meaning the thing is breaking off and heading north, but perhaps I am upside down. Why north? Incidentally, as that thing is huge, it is not moving that slowly; over the days you cover it moves something like a quarter of its length or around 20 kilometers. On a slightly different note, the ice cube count is falling. The cryosphere sea ice area has fallen a half-million square kilometers in three days.
Toggle Commented Jul 20, 2013 on Ice pack in full at Arctic Sea Ice
For those of us not expert in photographic reconnaissance, is there a current update on the scenic Nares Strait?
Toggle Commented Jul 17, 2013 on Nares Express is ready to leave at Arctic Sea Ice
The current IJIS graph http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm appears to be showing the extent starting to fall off the cliff. It started higher than last year, but is currently matching last year both in extent and in slope (first derivative). However, the period of the cliff fall is sufficiently short that it might be a fluctuation.
Toggle Commented Jun 8, 2013 on PIOMAS June 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Climate Fiction from the 1950s, some really odd, all from memories of the epoch: J G Ballard, multiple novels The Wind from Nowhere The Drowned Earth Neville Shute (? so my memory says) We Who Survived...the 5th(iirc) Ice Age The Storm At least one episode of Science Fiction Theater ... meteor strikes hurricane, really spins it up, to an otherwise impossible iirc 230 MPH. George Phillies ...former librarian, MIT Science Fiction Society
Toggle Commented May 24, 2013 on Russia abandoning ice station at Arctic Sea Ice
Readers who examine the Point Barrow view camera http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/webcam-uaf-barrow-seaice-images/current/image will note that the ocean is still frozen solid -- at least, I am fairly sure that is ice, not big waves -- but if you look at the lower left of the photo you may be able to spot the melt pond with shallow liquid water in it. That's at least somewhat warm.
Toggle Commented May 22, 2013 on When the Arctic was 8 °C warmer at Arctic Sea Ice
Readers may find of interest the analysis of historian Corelli Barnett, his Pride and Fall sequence on the century+ collapse of England, on the Liberal Arts education, not to be confused with the trivium or quadrivium. He viewed it as a major cause of the collapse of the English, not least because you ended up with managers few of whom had scientific engineering training. The US has had the same problem, leading, e.g., to the relative dates of adoption of the basic oxygen steelmaking process here and in Europe. The medieval liberal arts included, as an aside, the most advanced mathematics known at the time. OK, all you liberal arts majors, do you measure up? Are you familiar the theory of rings and fields, complex analysis, and differential geometry at the proof level? Yes, I do think it is reasonable to have history as a major. The number of history majors should be a reasonable multiple of the number of professional historians that we add each year.
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"...the graduate who has memorized some rote procedures to perform on preset challenges..." The gentleman's defense of the liberals arts consists of slandering engineering, the sciences, mathematics, economics,... Let me suggest that to the contrary it is the people who work in the challenging disciplines who must learn to attack matters in an open-ended way, and the undergraduate majors in the liberal arts who get by with, well, whatever. If the useful disciplines were so much "... memorized some rote procedures to perform on preset challenges..." rather than learning how to think hard, a task so challenging that some people choose to die instead, then why do we not see more students dropping out of Feminist Theology to major in Physics? George Phillies Professor of Physics and Associated Biochemistry Faculty and Interactive Media and Game Development Associated Faculty (and yes I have published in all three areas) Worcester Polytechnic Institute
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Going up to the first graph here, some of those empirical fits are subject to empirical confirmation or falsification very soon. For example, the log fit shows a zero this coming summer. The next fit hits zero two years later. Etc.
Toggle Commented Dec 23, 2012 on The real AR5 bombshell at Arctic Sea Ice
Antarctic melting, absolute worst case analysis: Suppose the entirety of our solar power input became available for melting the Antarctic, in the sense that the temperature over the globe dropped to 0.1 C and all excess solar energy were magically transported to Antarctica to melt ice; what is the upper limit on how fast the ice melts? You have to supply the heat of fusion, and Sol only supplies so much a year, of which a certain part in the end does not melt ice and re-radiates into space. Times much shorter than this are wrong via energy conservation. I infer that this time is not the time mentioned above, which was the time given that the energy has to reach Antarctica to make it melt. Comments?