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The latest few north pole webcam photos show a pressure ridge building. Compare
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2013/WEBCAM2/ARCHIVE/npeo_cam2_20130430221806.jpg
to
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2013/WEBCAM2/ARCHIVE/npeo_cam2_20130501041232.jpg
This will upset the horizon measurements unfortunately.
Commented May 1, 2013 on 2012/2013 Winter Analysis at Arctic Sea Ice
2012/2013 Winter Analysis
The melting season is about to shift one gear higher, and so I thought it'd be useful to have a comprehensive look at this past winter (just like we did last year). As we saw in this recent PIOMAS update, it seems that this year's conditions for ice formation were better over on the Siberian si...
The buoys deployed by the Polar Stern at the end of last summer (in the Laptev or East Siberian sea?) have already reached the north pole.
Was the deployment position chosen so the buoys would be perfectly situated for the start of melt season?
Does anyone know if there is a webcam on any of those buoys and if so if there is a public URL to see them?
Commented Mar 24, 2013 on Arctic freezing season ends with a loud crack at Arctic Sea Ice
Arctic freezing season ends with a loud crack
This is a guest blog I wrote for Climate Progress and Skeptical Science. You may use it as a new open thread to discuss the cracking event. I will try and do a more detailed winter analysis in April, if Allah and time permit. --- The sea ice cap on top of the Arctic Ocean is often imagined to ...
The buoy movement in the last 10 days along the Alaska coast has been nothing short of spectacular!
http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/maps_daily_arcticbasin.html
Commented Mar 9, 2013 on The cracks of dawn at Arctic Sea Ice
The cracks of dawn
I was hesitating whether I should write about this (besides my personal combination of busy/lazy) for a couple of days, because the Arctic is such an amazing place that it's easy to get carried away. When you see something for the first time, it's tempting to go: "Oh my Gawd, that haz got to b...
Looks like Shell decided to not even try drilling in the Arctic in 2013 according to news reports.
Commented Feb 28, 2013 on Shell drill spill? at Arctic Sea Ice
Shell drill spill?
It all sounds so simple: Arctic sea ice is retreating, so let's get over there and start some off-shore drilling! Unfortunately the Arctic isn't a friendly place, not to humans and not to oil executives. Commenter Lodger links to this ominous news article about the Kulluk, "a $290 million off...
Good comments Bob. I agree with you completely.
Commented Feb 16, 2013 on PIOMAS February 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
PIOMAS February 2013
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: The good news is that the 2013 trend line is showing an uptick. The difference with 2012 and 2011 i...
Once again the denialist Canadian government is suppressing publication of Arctic science. See Andreas Muenchow's blog post.
http://icyseas.org/2013/02/07/academic-freedom-and-international-collaborations/
Commented Feb 14, 2013 on Open Thread February 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Open Thread February 2013
The previous open thread has gotten full enough, so here's a new one. We might want to kick off with this animation made by commenter A-Team: His comment: Don't miss this -- it's happening right now, by the hour -- so head on over to 80N 150W. A huge fracture has been opening a bit east of B...
Werther, have you been listening to requiems?
Commented Feb 2, 2013 on 2013 Open thread #1 at Arctic Sea Ice
2013 Open thread #1
I was planning on writing posts more regularly, but reality forbids. So here's an open thread for all of your off-topic banter. source: Space Daily Will be back next week when I get an Internet connection in our new apartment. There's plenty to write about: that science report, the lower albe...
Looks like JAXA has begun to release AMSR2 data and Uni Bremen has begun to produce sea ice concentration maps with it.
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/
Commented Jan 29, 2013 on 2013 Open thread #1 at Arctic Sea Ice
2013 Open thread #1
I was planning on writing posts more regularly, but reality forbids. So here's an open thread for all of your off-topic banter. source: Space Daily Will be back next week when I get an Internet connection in our new apartment. There's plenty to write about: that science report, the lower albe...
Tim D:
"We have had an extreme value this year and regression to the mean would suggest that it should be quite close to this years minimum."
That's a really good point. When the variation is an oscillation around a stable mean an extreme low would be more likely to be followed by a value closer to the mean.
Looking at the PIOMAS anomaly trend suggests instead that the we aren't looking at variation around a stable mean but at a steadily declining mean. If there is regression to the mean it is to an ever decreasing one.
Commented Jan 9, 2013 on PIOMAS January 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
PIOMAS January 2013
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: 2012 has ended the year with a total volume that's around 1000 km3 less than 2010 and 2011, but ther...
On the topic of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets contribution to sea level rise past and future Richard Alley's talk is well worth watching.
http://climatecrocks.com/2013/01/05/the-weekend-wonk-richard-alley-on-ice-sheet-stability/
Commented Jan 5, 2013 on More from Greenland at Arctic Sea Ice
More from Greenland
Greenland's glaciers and ice sheet have become an integral part of this blog. Perhaps it should be renamed to ASIGIS blog? ;-) This clip from the Chasing Ice documentary has been doing the rounds lately. It's showing the largest iceberg calving ever filmed, with 7.4 cubic km of ice crashing off ...
It looks like a session called "What's going on in the Arctic" is being web streamed from the AGU meetings at 11:30am PST (GMT-8).
http://live.projectionnet.com/agupress/fm2012.aspx
Commented Dec 5, 2012 on Record dominoes 13: CT global SIA maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
Record dominoes 13: CT global SIA maximum
I doubt this is the end of the record streak, but as we approach the end of the year, this will probably be the final record domino of 2012. And what a fitting number to end it with! The record fell over three weeks ago (see data). The reason I'm reporting it now is not just because I'm lazy o...
On Nov 15th Jason Box tweeted:
"1h CNN Intl. special on Germany's Alfred Wegener Institute mapping Greenland ice changes Nov 24 11h & 20h, Nov 25 at 02h & 11h, all GMT"
Maybe that'll say something about the GIS mass loss.
Commented Nov 21, 2012 on As Sea Ice Declines, Winter Shifts in N. Alaska at Arctic Sea Ice
As Sea Ice Declines, Winter Shifts in N. Alaska
As winter sets in, the Arctic Ocean freezes up. But because waters near the continental land masses warm up so much during the melting season (see for instance this image from August 11th 2012), they have to give off a lot of heat before they're cold enough to freeze. The waters warm up so muc...
Am I jumping the gun or is the CT global sea ice graph showing the lowest annual maximum ever?
Commented Nov 10, 2012 on CT SIA finally above -2 million km2 anomaly mark at Arctic Sea Ice
CT SIA finally above -2 million km2 anomaly mark
After three full months the Cryosphere Today sea ice area anomaly trend line has finally left the zone below the 2 million square kilometre mark: As usual, Jim Pettit is serving the current statistical hors d'oeuvres: CT SIA area increased by 203k km2 yesterday; that was the fifth double centu...
It looks like you can request a copy from the author at
http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/202517/
Commented Sep 26, 2012 on ASI 2012 update 11: end or beginning? at Arctic Sea Ice
ASI 2012 update 11: end or beginning?
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) and Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2011 period (NSIDC has...
With respect to the speed of freeze up what is considered ice cover? Is a thin skin of surface ice sufficient to be included in ice covered area? I ask because of the images taken by the Healy today around 80 to 81 N show a mix of sometimes open water, sometimes chunks of ice, and sometimes areas of what look to me to be a thin skin of ice. Look at this and the photos before and after.
http://goo.gl/quNGw
I'm not sure if that ice is even thick enough to affect heat transfer out of the water but it might insulate slightly.
Commented Sep 10, 2012 on Minimum open thread at Arctic Sea Ice
Minimum open thread
The reports of my return are greatly exaggerated. I'm still at my holiday address, on the wretched 56K modem. As I'm going to be realy offline now for 2-3 days to visit my 97 year old grandfather and his 400 litre wine cask, I thought an open thread would be a good idea. Can we start speculatin...
GRACE results though amazing and informative seem to take 5 or more years to be published. We are going to miss much of the Greenland melt action if we have to wait for GRACE results. This is a huge pity because the mass loss GRACE showed in the previous publication (especially Antarctic) was huge and delaying showing that Greenland is melting away doesn't help.
Commented Sep 9, 2012 on Signs of Arctic climate change at Arctic Sea Ice
Signs of Arctic climate change
And when I say 'Arctic', I of course automatically imply 'Northern Hemisphere'. You know, the place where most of the world's agriculture is based. One thing I have noticed this melting season, is how high pressure areas persistently remained over Greenland (causing, for instance, the decrease i...
Larry,
Once again your charts are stunningly clear. I can't wait for the next ones.
Commented Sep 7, 2012 on Cycle plots of Arctic sea ice at Arctic Sea Ice
Cycle plots of Arctic sea ice
The downward trends in minimum sea ice area, extent and volume have become stunningly obvious to anyone who sees images such as the top row in this blog's long-term graphs page. But what about trends in annual maximum, or the in-between seasons? Cycle plots (Cox 2006) provide an unorthodox but i...
Chris,
I'm impressed! I didn't expect the scatterplot to have such a clear change at the recent lower minimums. I guess the flattening of the GISS LOTI time series in the most recent years while PIOMAS volume continues the drop is reflected in the scatterplot.
Thanks for the fast turnaround producing the plots!
Commented Sep 6, 2012 on More details on PIOMAS volume loss at Arctic Sea Ice
More details on PIOMAS volume loss
Quite soon after the inception of this blog, data from the PIOMAS model became a prominent element in discussions on ice thickness and volume. Though corroborated by on-the-ground observations and satellite data, PIOMAS remained a model and so practically everyone was careful in not attaching to...
Does anyone have a plot of PIOMAS annual minimum versus global average temperature anomaly? Both of those seem amazingly linear versus year in the modern era so seems likely they'd be correlated.
Commented Sep 6, 2012 on More details on PIOMAS volume loss at Arctic Sea Ice
More details on PIOMAS volume loss
Quite soon after the inception of this blog, data from the PIOMAS model became a prominent element in discussions on ice thickness and volume. Though corroborated by on-the-ground observations and satellite data, PIOMAS remained a model and so practically everyone was careful in not attaching to...
Jim:
A study this year suggests the risk of the great conveyor stopping due to salinity changes is unlikely.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120104142117.htm
Commented Sep 4, 2012 on ASI 2012 update 10: (wh)at a loss at Arctic Sea Ice
ASI 2012 update 10: (wh)at a loss
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) and Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2011 period (NSIDC h...
Wipneus:
Yes the animation works.
Commented Sep 2, 2012 on Record dominoes 6: IJIS sea ice extent at Arctic Sea Ice
Record dominoes 6: IJIS sea ice extent
There are several scientific organisations that keep an eye on the Arctic sea ice cover and put out graphs to inform us of the amount of ice that is left. You can see most, if not all, of them on the ASI Graphs webpage. I expect the record on most of these graphs to be broken in weeks to come. -...
re Belzebub II
As in almost all reports of new records it is important to include enough descriptive modifiers to distinguish the record. In this case I think sailboat, northern-most route, east to west, in one season, are all required to make this a "record". (Maybe more are needed)
With the ice disappearing and many more boats able to cruise the arctic I expect the list of modifiers required to establish "new records" to grow pretty long.
Commented Aug 30, 2012 on Why Arctic sea ice shouldn't leave anyone cold at Arctic Sea Ice
Why Arctic sea ice shouldn't leave anyone cold
The sea ice is leaving us a bit more every year. It's time to start contemplating its absence, which is why I teamed up with Kevin McKinney to write an extended version of the shorter piece you might see pop up here and there. Because you know, disappearing sea ice isn't without consequences. An...
Meanwhile Belzebub II has made it through the McClure Strait to complete the passage east to west taking the most northern route ever by a sailboat.
http://belzebub2.com/home?lang=en
Commented Aug 30, 2012 on Similar melts from 1938-43? at Arctic Sea Ice
Similar melts from 1938-43?
I'm supposed to be on a holiday and should let this one slide, but it's too much. I was expecting fake skeptics to remain mostly silent in face of the ice massacre up north, but apparently they acutely sense how big this blow is to the remaining shred of their credibility, and so they upped the ...
I think the second link was meant to be
http://bit.ly/NSARMX
Commented Aug 29, 2012 on Record dominoes 8: NSIDC daily sea ice extent at Arctic Sea Ice
Record dominoes 8: NSIDC daily sea ice extent
There are several scientific organisations that keep an eye on the Arctic sea ice cover and put out graphs to inform us of the amount of ice that is left. You can see most, if not all, of them on the ASI Graphs webpage. I expect the record on most of these graphs to be broken in weeks to come. -...
I'm betting that the message taken from the NASA/NSDIC teleconference today by many is that this year's loss was all due to the storm. They didn't actually say that specifically but they hemmed and hawed and kept talking about how the unusual storm melted so much ice. I will be surprised if most of the reporters don't come away thinking 2012 is unusual because of a single weather event.
Commented Aug 27, 2012 on Record dominoes 8: NSIDC daily sea ice extent at Arctic Sea Ice
Record dominoes 8: NSIDC daily sea ice extent
There are several scientific organisations that keep an eye on the Arctic sea ice cover and put out graphs to inform us of the amount of ice that is left. You can see most, if not all, of them on the ASI Graphs webpage. I expect the record on most of these graphs to be broken in weeks to come. -...
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