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Ghoti Of Lod
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Wow! The uninformed making noise claiming the people who actually take the time and make the effort to read and understand the definitions of the various measurement systems are wrong. Of course deniers never let the facts intrude on their statements of "truth"
Toggle Commented Mar 20, 2015 on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
Who needs melt ponds when you've got a million sq km of extra open water?
Toggle Commented Mar 6, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
Article in Skeptical Science by Jennifer Francis the introduces the evil twin of the RRR - the "Terribly Tenacious Trough" also see the published science behind the cute naming. where Francis introduces new ways to quantify the waviness of the jet stream. Chris you'll probably want to take the time to read this new one.
Toggle Commented Feb 21, 2015 on PIOMAS February 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
On a positive note the restriction meant I watched the press conferences which included topics I'd never have chosen. As a result I learned new and interesting things I'd have missed. Plus there was one on the Greenland melt water situation which was eye-opening to me.
Clearly the AGU has a long way to go to "convey understanding clearly and accurately, both to decision makers and to the general public" They still refuse to make web streams freely available to the public. All 6 "virtual AGU" streams display: This entry is only available with a premium ticket. Please purchase one I find this particularly rude given that virtually all the AGU funding comes either directly or indirectly from public sources. The only streams freely available are for press conferences.
I'm struggling with the notion that the NAO or AO is a causal agent. To me they are more a means of describing large scale weather patterns than the cause of that weather. I suppose it is a chicken and egg sort of situation. We've read how the extremely persistent ridge was a prediction of models testing reduced Arctic ice conditions. We know how the ENSO ocean temperatures affect pressure patterns and the resulting weather. I also thought that a reason for the 3 month running mean being used for describing the state of the NAO was also an indication it is used as a more general description of large scale weather conditions rather than a short term driver of them. In any case it is interesting to read about the NAO being used to "predict" short term weather patterns.
The BBC article about Ben Nevis snowfields is being used to promote an incorrect notion that there is suddenly glaciation occurring. The article clearly states that snowfields surviving the summer are not new. "Ben Nevis and a few other peaks in the Scottish Highlands provide the most southerly refuge for some of these species which can only survive due to the altitude and presence of semi-permanent snow fields." In fact a quick check of Wikipedia indicates the summit observatory "which operated from 1883 to 1904, reported that snow survived on the north-east cliffs through more years than it vanished". So, no, this is not new but it is recently under study and so increases of snow in cold summers are being noted.
Toggle Commented Sep 7, 2014 on PIOMAS September 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Chris and Jim I also noted that Dr Zhang very clearly showed that his technique, though good at predicting 2012, was completely off for 2013. I'd say it doesn't account for the weather sufficiently.
Toggle Commented Apr 2, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
I'd think that the data from 3611 active Argo floats probably is sufficient to compensate for the loss of some moored sensors.
Toggle Commented Jan 23, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
I finally found the video on demand of Palmer's 15 minute AGU talk. Unfortunately you need to register to get access (I had registered for free at the time of the meetings). The talk was about how stochastic parameterization drastically improves the models so they actually reflect the regimes seen in nature. More relevant to the high pressure that's been blocking the western US for over a year is the Petouhkov paper on quasiresonant planetary waves.
Toggle Commented Jan 20, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
This pattern seems reminiscent of the 4 lobe Lorenzian attractor that Tim Palmer discussed this year at the AGU fall meetings. I can't seem to find the reference but maybe someone else recalls it.
Toggle Commented Jan 20, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
I've been hoping to see Argo floats north of Svaldbard but it seems extremely unlikely to happen. There are a bunch deployed in the Fram between 65 and 75 degrees N but those seem most likely to drift south rather than north into the increasingly unfrozen waters north of the Fram and Barants Sea.
I think buoy 2012M is positioned on that fast ice just southwest of the south end of the big piece that just broke off. The worldview images look like there's surface melting in that area.
Toggle Commented Jul 20, 2013 on Ice pack in full at Arctic Sea Ice
O-Buoy 8 went over this past Monday (morning eastern time). The image seemed to show broken ice and water runoff channel. Looked to me as if the chunk of ice it was on ridged up onto the chunk we had been viewing leaving the buoy more or less horizontal.
Yeah, given the ice is sloping and the imagery showed the webcam is on a separate piece of ice from the buoys in the view, the drainage troughs seen in the last couple of days are to be expected.
OBuoy 7 has had extensive melt ponding visible from the webcam this week. Surprising to me today is seeing that these melt ponds seem to be draining already. I didn't expect that so soon.
O-buoy 8 is finally providing data and webcam images from the Beaufort. Hurry and go look before there isn't anything to look at! O-Buoys are 2012L and 2012H. Looks like they may fall into the slush soon.
Modis may be almost useless for checking thickness but does this look like 5 meter thick ice as indicated by the navy chart?,-827635.47106,-45104.461886,-666099.47106&products=baselayers,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor~overlays,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2013-06-10&switch=arctic I suppose fragmentation doesn't necessarily indicate anything about thickness.
Last year there were buoys that were in the location where the goats head is now. Those all got flushed out the Fram last year. We may be watching the goat's head on its final journey.
Toggle Commented May 26, 2013 on Russia abandoning ice station at Arctic Sea Ice
A-team, The csv file with the 2012 data is available but I don't know how useful it is. Graphs of snow depth ice thickness and temperature are at It sounded to me as if the problem of the camp wasn't the ice thickness per se. It sounded more like the ice is fragmenting badly despite the ice remaining at or near max thickness for the year.
I'm not positive but it looks like buoy 2012G was originally colocated near this station. Along with the current data there's a photo of the buoy setup that shows the station.
The latest few north pole webcam photos show a pressure ridge building. Compare to This will upset the horizon measurements unfortunately.
Toggle Commented May 1, 2013 on 2012/2013 Winter Analysis at Arctic Sea Ice
The buoys deployed by the Polar Stern at the end of last summer (in the Laptev or East Siberian sea?) have already reached the north pole. Was the deployment position chosen so the buoys would be perfectly situated for the start of melt season? Does anyone know if there is a webcam on any of those buoys and if so if there is a public URL to see them?
The buoy movement in the last 10 days along the Alaska coast has been nothing short of spectacular!
Toggle Commented Mar 9, 2013 on The cracks of dawn at Arctic Sea Ice
Looks like Shell decided to not even try drilling in the Arctic in 2013 according to news reports.
Toggle Commented Feb 28, 2013 on Shell drill spill? at Arctic Sea Ice