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Gibbon
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I have friends that have made comments that a high percentage of students in grad school are on 'mood stabilizers'. I suspect that an unacknowledged result of the winner take all economy as that we are selecting people for leadership positions via a process of destructive testing. Probably also explains the increasing mortality rate among middle aged white males. High stress during 20's and 30's results in higher mortality in 40-50's
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Well deLong moderates his comments and I think not just for spam and ad hominem attacks but also for goldbuggery and other such nonsense.
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And E) Low cost robust power transistors for handling DC power efficiently. F) Cheap microprocessor based controllers The necessary devices weren't available until the early 1980's when you saw the first variable speed drives and only for truly large motors ~1000 to 10000kW. Took ten years from 1985 to 1995 for the cost to drop enough for use in 50kW motors commonly found in electric/hybrid cars. So the stuff has been available since the early 1980's but only recently at price points that are economic for electric cars. The sort of stuff could have been developed faster if there was the political will. Consider though that most of our political leaders if they had their druthers would use their legislative power to block adoption of these technologies and we're lucky we get here as fast as we did. Electric power storage is pirating off technologies developed for laptops/cell phone originally. And laptops/cell phones weren't considered serious business until the late 90's a mere 15-20 years ago.
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Story mostly I think is the Soviets weren't willing to wait for the nuclear scientists to design smaller nukes, so they designed and built big IBCM's. Which were just the thing to throw satellites and men into space. So the United States got caught somewhat flat footed. One of my Maximums: If a country is honestly committed to do something technical and has the resources they'll usually succeed at it.
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I remember I think seeing someone overlay recessions with droughts/grain harvests, and it looked like most recessions/downturns were preceded by a decline in agricultural output. (Pretty sure most economists would snort at the idea)
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I have a tiny itsy bitsy comment to make. The $100,000 saved by ma and pa investor is all from heavily taxed earned income saved by the simple expedient of foregoing consumption.
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Not sure how making life less stressful for bankers is a win though. Especially as the cost of raising income inequality, a stressed workforce, and knocking economic growth down from 3-4% to 2% per year.
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Offhand thought of the day of how a lot of economic 'thinking' offends my sensibilities as an engineer. The story. Economist seem to think the story isn't science. Science is data and number and equations and models. It's not, all rigorous fields take a story and check and cross check to see that it's correct and then run numbers on it. And everyone knows if the story is bullshit your numbers don't mean anything. Not economists.
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""One can safely claim, to the extent that these things that be causally proven, that the rapid worldwide progress in poverty alleviation is due to globalization."" One can safely claim that the rapid worldwide progress in poverty alleviation is due to rising literacy and education rates. Particularly that of women. Num nuts.
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I think the difference is it was easy to ignore Marcy's victims when they were mere undergrads -> post doc's. But not now as they are moving to positions of authority and power outside the university, it can't be ignored. This will never be the case for Yoo's victims. What is cowardice?
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Dead inflation lies dreaming until the stars are right. Seriously, it's gone. You won't see 5% inflation again in your lifetime.
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I get the point, but classical mechanics is really just a degenerate case of relativity. What's interesting is the description the ancient Greeks had. They believed that the path of an arrow had three parts, a flat trajectory, followed by a curved, followed by falling straight down. Which is, absolutely a correct description of an arrows path. That's sort of the dispute here, the post modern economists are in the position of saying, see I've PROVED that an arrow follows a parabolic path. Proved!!!!! And then the economists that aren't willing to give up observational studies say, uh uh, a real arrow doesn't follow that path. Who is right? The moldy empiricists. That to give credit where it's due, the micro foundations, post modern economists are saying an arrow follows a straight line really. (So empirically false it's embarrassing)
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Look it's very simple, if you weren't flabbergasted than you weren't someone to take seriously in the first place, or now for that matter.
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Probably only thing that could tip the US into a currency crisis is, el-revolution! where the top 0.1% of Americans try to covert their dollar denominated assets into Swiss Franks on the taxi ride to the airport.
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Neoliberal isn't an epithets at least historically. Learn your economics dude.
Toggle Commented Aug 12, 2015 on Worst Forecaster at the Fed at Economist's View
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The golden age employment to population ratio can't be compared to current without taking into consideration that during the golden age large numbers of women were engaged in unpaid child rearing. Which is critical economically useful work. But because it's unpaid economists studiously ignore it. It's 'leisure' Now men and women have to share child rearing duties while holding down jobs.
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One can go back and read what he posted on his blog circa 2008-2009. It's only a few hundred posts. Um... my memory was of him saying roughly, this isn't really a problem because the politicians and central bankers just have to do the obvious thing vis liquidity injection and fiscal stimulus, etc and this will be contained. And my thinking, and yes those f*ckers are certainly _not_ going to do that because they're far more craven then Brad thinks. I do say, Brads come around to my way of thinking on that.
Toggle Commented Aug 12, 2015 on Worst Forecaster at the Fed at Economist's View
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There is a reasonable difference between mass killings between the US and the Japanese. When on considers the lines of power. The US incinerated what a million Japanese civilians directly and also starved many of them indirectly by destroying the Japanese Merchant marine what was needed to import food. Just for starters the Japanese murdered a quarter million Chinese in retaliation for helping the Doolittle airmen escape. The difference is, in both cases the slaughtered civilians were under the protection of the Imperial Japanese government. Ordinary civilians that fell under the control of the US, British, and Soviets weren't murdered as per policy like what happened to civilians that fell under the control of the Japanese or Germans. One can say, perhaps the bombings of civilians by Allies in WWII was bad, and we shouldn't have done that. But it's not equivalent to what the Japanese and Germans did.
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""a) Yes, but everybody does X; that is how the adversarial method works."" This is how law works not science. The take away is the fresh water economists mission is not science, their mission is political.
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There is a huge cottage industry devoted to de-annoymizing web traffic. The motivation is to better serve up ads. For instance I went on amazon and looked at pressure cookers. This was after the Bostom Marathon bombing. I'd remembered I'd been thinking about getting a pressure cooker the better to steam artichokes. Anyway for about two months after that... youtube kept serving me up ads for full figured bras. Next there is a totally sleazy business of spamming and scamming people via email. This is because unlike youtube where a scammer has to pay to get his ad put up, email is sort of free. Tells you something that when visiting the right wing websites, the old inbox gets filled with spam from grifters. Far as I get when you visit left wing websites that mostly doesn't happen.
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That Back Propagation Induction-Unraveling from the Long Run Omega Point, long run thing sounds like the unexpected hanging paradox in reverse. "A judge tells a condemned prisoner that he will be hanged at noon on one weekday in the following week but that the execution will be a surprise to the prisoner. He will not know the day of the hanging until the executioner knocks on his cell door at noon that day. Having reflected on his sentence, the prisoner draws the conclusion that he will escape from the hanging. His reasoning is in several parts. He begins by concluding that the "surprise hanging" can't be on Friday, as if he hasn't been hanged by Thursday, there is only one day left - and so it won't be a surprise if he's hanged on Friday. Since the judge's sentence stipulated that the hanging would be a surprise to him, he concludes it cannot occur on Friday. He then reasons that the surprise hanging cannot be on Thursday either, because Friday has already been eliminated and if he hasn't been hanged by Wednesday night, the hanging must occur on Thursday, making a Thursday hanging not a surprise either. By similar reasoning he concludes that the hanging can also not occur on Wednesday, Tuesday or Monday. Joyfully he retires to his cell confident that the hanging will not occur at all. The next week, the executioner knocks on the prisoner's door at noon on Wednesday — which, despite all the above, was an utter surprise to him. Everything the judge said came true." Obviously the long run when inflation spikes and everyone short bonds makes a killing is 'tomorrow'
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Since no one it talking murder charges, must be live boy.
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I read this earlier, stand by my comment Pareto optimal should be called Pareto Attractor because the words efficient and optimal have anthropomorphic value judgement baggage. "an attractor is a set of numerical values toward which a system tends to evolve, for a wide variety of starting conditions of the system." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attractor
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I think I would refer to that as the Pareto Attractor since optimality and efficiency carry meanings that are definitely not applicable. Seriously Pareto Attractor sounds very much more like Benford's law than anything.
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30:1 leverage, not regulation, not transparency, what could go wrong. Also political capture by the finance sector meant Congress, Obama, Ben Bernanke and Timothy F. Geithner made sure that underwater homeowners couldn't get out from under ruinous mortgages via the bankruptcy process. Forcing homeowners to make the banks whole probably, a 200 billion/yr drag on the economy.
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