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Gibbon
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""a) Yes, but everybody does X; that is how the adversarial method works."" This is how law works not science. The take away is the fresh water economists mission is not science, their mission is political.
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There is a huge cottage industry devoted to de-annoymizing web traffic. The motivation is to better serve up ads. For instance I went on amazon and looked at pressure cookers. This was after the Bostom Marathon bombing. I'd remembered I'd been thinking about getting a pressure cooker the better to steam artichokes. Anyway for about two months after that... youtube kept serving me up ads for full figured bras. Next there is a totally sleazy business of spamming and scamming people via email. This is because unlike youtube where a scammer has to pay to get his ad put up, email is sort of free. Tells you something that when visiting the right wing websites, the old inbox gets filled with spam from grifters. Far as I get when you visit left wing websites that mostly doesn't happen.
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That Back Propagation Induction-Unraveling from the Long Run Omega Point, long run thing sounds like the unexpected hanging paradox in reverse. "A judge tells a condemned prisoner that he will be hanged at noon on one weekday in the following week but that the execution will be a surprise to the prisoner. He will not know the day of the hanging until the executioner knocks on his cell door at noon that day. Having reflected on his sentence, the prisoner draws the conclusion that he will escape from the hanging. His reasoning is in several parts. He begins by concluding that the "surprise hanging" can't be on Friday, as if he hasn't been hanged by Thursday, there is only one day left - and so it won't be a surprise if he's hanged on Friday. Since the judge's sentence stipulated that the hanging would be a surprise to him, he concludes it cannot occur on Friday. He then reasons that the surprise hanging cannot be on Thursday either, because Friday has already been eliminated and if he hasn't been hanged by Wednesday night, the hanging must occur on Thursday, making a Thursday hanging not a surprise either. By similar reasoning he concludes that the hanging can also not occur on Wednesday, Tuesday or Monday. Joyfully he retires to his cell confident that the hanging will not occur at all. The next week, the executioner knocks on the prisoner's door at noon on Wednesday — which, despite all the above, was an utter surprise to him. Everything the judge said came true." Obviously the long run when inflation spikes and everyone short bonds makes a killing is 'tomorrow'
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Since no one it talking murder charges, must be live boy.
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I read this earlier, stand by my comment Pareto optimal should be called Pareto Attractor because the words efficient and optimal have anthropomorphic value judgement baggage. "an attractor is a set of numerical values toward which a system tends to evolve, for a wide variety of starting conditions of the system." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attractor
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I think I would refer to that as the Pareto Attractor since optimality and efficiency carry meanings that are definitely not applicable. Seriously Pareto Attractor sounds very much more like Benford's law than anything.
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30:1 leverage, not regulation, not transparency, what could go wrong. Also political capture by the finance sector meant Congress, Obama, Ben Bernanke and Timothy F. Geithner made sure that underwater homeowners couldn't get out from under ruinous mortgages via the bankruptcy process. Forcing homeowners to make the banks whole probably, a 200 billion/yr drag on the economy.
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There of course the follow on Proposition 58 that allows ones heirs to inherit the property tax exemption as well, in perpetuity.
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This of course is a good one, http://blogs.wsj.com/pharmalot/2015/05/08/to-what-extent-should-a-drug-maker-be-allowed-to-convey-off-label-info/ tl;dr: The FDA doesn't have the power to interfere with a drug companies freedom of speech when it comes to promoting off label uses.
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One thing I remember my Grandmother a renter on a fixed income saying. Every time there was a social security cost of lining increase the landlord would raise the rent by the same amount. Which instilled in me the idea that any benefits you want hand over to low income people need to somehow be protected from the landlord, etc etc etc. Better to tax wealth and property and use the money to pay for the poor folks kids to go to school, then to give poor folks an income tax break. Second best is to tax the poor and use it to pay for stuff they use. Social Security is exactly the latter. The government takes some $$$ which in reality comes out of the landlords pocket. And in return promises some income during retirement. probably all of Social Security really comes out of the landlords pocket.
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My feeling too, at nominally zero they are still on the wrong side of the curve, raise rates economy crashes. Yet they are under a lot of pressure to get interest rates back up so the rentiers can makes some f*king money.
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0. John Cochrane falls into the trap of thinking that energy, resources, and labor flow through the economy like money does through a set of double entry ledgers.
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> His claim to be "well" was a falsehood. The denial is an acknowledgement
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I can't help but read this stuff and think that the Chicken Littles have this idea that there is some perfect monetary policy that needs to be followed at all costs. Since they have been trained to fear the inflation monster, they fear any policy that could under some future circumstance fail under inflationary pressure. Ignoring that in the face of inflation the central bank could (Bring my smelling salts, and cover your ears Martha) *change it's policy* Anothercritque I see and me answer. Q: B..Bu But what is the investors don't want to do what the central bank wants? A: The Nice Mr Central Banker being able to print at will, will totally ratf*ck you if you don't play along. 'What if I get another sax player' https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgfZVNv6w2E
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Please Neanderthal is a slur, the proper term is Yeti http://subgenius.wikia.com/wiki/Yeti *cough*
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There is only one set of four anti-aircraft guns in the flak tower, makes me think this is after the war.
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You really need to be able to click on those graphs to see a larger version.
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Problem with metrics, measure something and then comes the urge to control the number to three decimal places. Same prob;em with test limits, limits are 1.56 2.17, thus 2.16 is okay and 2.18 is fail. I would say disposable income is a good metric. Or savings rate.
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One of my old college professors pointed out, your average car has 100 HP worth of gas and 400 HP worth of brakes. In this case the economy is missing on a couple of cylinders and the Fed is afraid to take it's foot of the brake, cause... Actually my thought has been, if yields on new bonds ever went to 5% the 'value' of old ZIRP paper, and fixed assets like housing would plummet. If mortgage rates go from 3.5% to 7% what does that do to the asking price of a house? Ans: Price has to drop 33% to keep the same mortgage. Same time a bunch of people in variable rate mortgages become insolvent.
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My personal hunch is minimizing deviations from 2 percent and 6 percent is probably bad. As a young engineer I remember being asked repeatedly where my design parameters and test limits came from. How does the fed know that the correct numbers are 2 and 6 percent? And why is tight control of those parameters important? I remember reading old stuff from 70-50 years ago. It seemed then focus was on raw economic output, tons steel, disposable income, and the ability of workers to find well paying jobs. Not inflation and unemployment.
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The Haiti response was kinda the World Health Organizations Katrina after the aid workers from Pakistan dumped their latrines in the river thus starting huge epidemic of cholera. Followed by not owning up for it and accepting responsibility. Hint Haiti had many many problems before the earthquake but cholera wasn't one of them.
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I always think back to the letter from FDR to Stalin promising 12,000 tons of lard a month. My rough calculation is that alone was 1% of the calorific needs of the Soviet union. Assume 1lb of lard is 4000 calories. So 12,000 tons is 24,000,000 lbs. month or 800,000 lbs a day. Or 3.2 billion calories a day. Divide by what google says is the population of the soviet union 1940 191 million is 16.75 calories per day per person. Required calories is 1800/day. So 16.75/1800 is 0.0093 or about 1%. Just the lard.
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Um... err... I tried I really tried... but https://c1.staticflickr.com/7/6116/6268448400_c48ded24bb_z.jpg My attempt at a Friedmanizum, You know I've learned to be careful when trying to reason about other peoples and places. Because here in Northern California the sharp edges of suck on this have been worn smooth. So the response is 'ow quit it' In places like Iraq being to told to suck it is rough trade and results in shrapnel sent you way. I think I failed. Ow quit it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CT96xH8UoeY
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The paid down by the rich isn't really true as much that the debt was inflated away over time. Both by real inflation and also because the economy grew over time. So that idea that debt can only be reduced by cutting spending or increasing taxes is false. Not to mention the falsehood that all government spending is a dead weight loss to the economy. Some is, some isn't. One notes that Conservative economisticators love 'defense spending' which often is a dead loss. Vs say science, infrastructure and education, which over long haul are highly positive. The other consideration is government debt is a form of safe and liquid paper which is good using as financial reserves. If the economy were growing faster likely we could do with less treasuries. So if you want to reduce that amount of government debt a growing economy is a good way to do it. (More growth, more income, more tax revenues and the percentage falls because the denominator gets bigger. Any event borrowing costs are extremely low. Which means it's a good time to build infrastructure, yet we aren't. Friend mentioned that the largest public infrastructure project in the US currently is the Fleamont BART extension. *boggle*
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I think the blind squirrel found a nut actually.
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