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Gibbon
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""I start my class with a 30-minute discussion exercise along these lines about what's involved in getting a pencil onto the store shelves, which suffices to make the point that economies are very complex systems that nobody could succeed in centrally planning. "" Oh my god....
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[what does that mean through a time when information technology is so focused on?] I'll provide an anecdote from the cesspit that is the bay area. Here is... wait for it... Anecdote: It seems to this small brained monkey (simia parum inbecilli engineerous) that huge amounts of development effort is not focused on increasing economic productivity, but instead more efficient ways extract money from the pockets of the suckers.
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At the Mountains of Madness - Short Animation Movie https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvpBDopIMxw (Warning French)
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In mechanical engineering there are two concepts of equilibrium, static and dynamic. And there is also this thing called friction. One often uses simplified linear equations to describe stuff. You hope that, that's good enough because when it isn't things get really weird and stateful. So to me the idea that the economy would have multiple 'equilibria' makes a world of sense. And very very very distrustful of anyone claiming otherwise. You can show me any set of equations you want that show otherwise and I'll say either you don't understand your model, or your model is too simple to capture relevant behavior.
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I totally agree with that. Likely the lack of screw driver tools vs hammers is because we gave the central bank too much 'independence' meaning they aren't independent just mostly beholden to the large banks. Who I'm sure do not want the Fed telling them what to invest in. I'm reminded of a letter from an official of the British central talking about dealing with an early banking crisis. A large part of the solution was forcibly ramming money up banks and industries backsides. All but ordering them to build stuff.
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The Fed will let rates rise to 4-5% Bwhahahahahahaha!!!! The fed can try to raise rates and watch the economy tip into a recession. Put it simply, no one wants the Feds money at 4% No one.
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Bwahahahahahahahahahaha! The Iraq war was nothing more of anything but a huge give away to the war industries. A military bridge to no where. They took the Treasury for 1 Trillion. Oh sure the the war mongering pols on the right were sure that by giving war a chance, they'd be able to walk around Washington with big swinging dicks, they'd coast to reelection, and their friends in industry would get rich. So the big swinging dick part didn't work out. 2 out of 3.
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"The essence of state action is that it operates by compulsion/force, while things done outside the state are voluntary. This reality" And I kinda skimmed after this to make sure you weren't being sarcastic. And you aren't, which means you're a nut. Hint many things done outside the state are just as coercive if not more so. I would say you are exhibit A as to why small staters are loons. The rest of my comment, not on you, since I am done. But to competence of the state. Good Socialism: Sewers, street lights, dog catchers Bad Socialism: The Peoples Dry Cleaners #14692
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Higher inflation tramps down the long tail of debt. The way I think about it is, businesses and households have income streams and they have debt typically. Inflation tends to push the ratio of income to debt in favor of income.
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The Wall Street casino finance as waste of otherwise productive resources harkens back to an observation I made about 1980 about the USSR and US's nuclear weapons programed. Namely 200-250,000 highly trained engineers working on what the fuck? Work some of this stuff through, how many solar panels could you buy with the 800 billion the US is committed to the nuclear weapons industry? Also side comment about the engineer shortage in tech. Some the hunger for H1B visa's in the tech industry is due to the military industrial complex hoovering up the native born engineering talent. Foreign born engineers typically can't work on classified stuff. What gets me is I read economist talk about finely tuned perfectly adapted economies where I see vast oceans of waste. Reminds me of a comment by an artist that does reconstructions of long dead creatures. He hates when he hears people say animals being evolutionarily perfectly adapted tot heir environment. Because they aren't, they're just better than anything else that has access to it.
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I'm reminded of a comment from a friend who went to work for Japanese auto company. He made some comment when he started working about 'competition' and his boss said, 'This year we announced a dozen models will be switching to hybrid in five years. GM announced the H2' China response to peek oil, climate change, pollution, was to spend 100 billion on solar technology and manufacturing. The US response was a fracking spree funded by extremely loose credit. Nimbism is alive and well in the US but it isn't the Hippies that are the worst offenders. It's Republicans making sure none of their clients apple cart gets tipped over.
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I am but a simple monkey economist, large numbers frighten and confuse me. No wait I can divide large numbers by roughly 316.1 million people. Toss nine zeros and multiply by three. So $10 billion for education, $16 billion for Medicaid becomes $80 per capita.
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Problem is all of these weapons essentially inflect a large but impersonal disaster on a populace but which carries essentially no political force. And one notes contrary to what the management might want to think, historically natural disasters don't break societies or organizations. Which leads one to the conclusion remote strikes aren't particularly effective.
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Comment I made to someone bitching that fiscal and monitary policy doesn't work because Japan's public debt is ginormous after 25 years in the liquidity trap was 'letting problems fester can be amazingly expensive' Which is, accepting a long period of low growth is a real and sunk loss vs a paper one. You can use financial smoke and mirrors to fix the latter. But low growth due to an economic stall is a loss that you won't get back easily.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdefPIylEaM
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I'm a bit curious of the difference between realized income and unrealized income. I think the top 0.1% has a lot of flexibility in the amount of income they realize, not to mention opportunity to push expenses off their personal books. Seems there are two issues at play, one how to discourage the upper class which has income flexibility for wasting wealth on the 0.1%'s equivalent of 40 oz malt liquor. The second is how to prevent the winner take all scenario. Where the wealthiest families take control of larger and larger shares of the economy and waste money and resources on rent extraction.
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"Called for maximum speed from engineers – they gave us 25% overload for about thirty minutes, then commenced growling about sparking commutators, hot motors, et al , forced to slow to flank." Eek. I'm pretty sure those old diesel electric systems used a DC generator since the magic hand of the market hadn't seen fit to grant humanity silicon rectifies in 100 amp sizes for another 20 years*. Danger is sparking commutators -> flashover -> fire. Whole situation for the Sea lion is totally sketch. * And the divine magic of IGBT's for another 20 years after that.
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Fortunately the Chinese Commies don't care what the American Junkers think.
Toggle Commented Nov 19, 2014 on Links for 11-19-14 at Economist's View
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Because when you admit that humans with their scuzzy heuristic logic preforms better than the magic hand the house of cards blows up. Think about it, these guys think you can come up with closed form solutions to economic problems. And these closed form solutions would be dead nuts accurate if and only if we could measure what the economy is doing closely enough to calibrate our models with the correct coefficients.
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I'll give you my answer. Before WWII it was okay for a science to be verbose, descriptive, and a bit mushy. After WWII when the physicists figured out how to convert a few grams of Plutonium into raw energy, hard science was all the rage. So in comes Prescott and what not with their equations and rigor and they muscled out everyone else. Though from someone (me) with a passing understanding of computer science. I look at their models and I see what amounts to the claim that the market can solve an NP problem instantaneously. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NP-hard Thus I'm left with two options. A couple of mathematically illiterate economists discovered something that eludes real mathematicians to this day. Or they are fools.
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My point is if California goes single payer the insurance industry probably loses 20% of it's national revenue. And California is large enough to negotiate drug prices in absence of federal control. This is adverse selection on the state level. Instead of healthier people forgoing insurance, you have healthier wealthier states forgoing insurance in mass. Take of single payer in California was headed off by the ACA and the post 2008 budget crisis. The budget crisis is over for California. If the ACA goes down, then it's back on the table again.
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Mark Field said... >I think you're way too optimistic when it comes to single-payer. 30 years would be a better bet. I'm think if the Supreme court derails the ACA then California goes to single payer within 6 months.
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>Meanwhile in Spain we had the (IMHO) substantially less motivated and substantially crueler crusade against the Jews, with all the civl liberties (hah) of the Spanish Inquisition... A long time ago I used to play Civilization. Recently I became disappointed that they don't at some point in the game have a little Rabbi character appear on the frontier. If you ignore him he'll move in and build a synagogue and your technological progress magically increases by 10%. Also more seriously, you look at Bolivia they had honest to goodness apartheid up until 1949. And still for a lot of people in Bolivia Spanish is/was a second language. Mexico had serious limits on foreign investment as well. Personally I tend to think, limits on foreign investment is usually bad. Far as I understand the US never put any restrictions on foreign investment or property ownership (now watch me get slapped silly) Secondary, high rates of immigration probably boosted the US economy. Consider other countries care for and feed some son of dirt farmer till they reach young adulthood and they then up and move to 'America'
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> Well, it's all about the size of the dose... One of the big lies used by the nuclear/nuclear weapons industry is to treat environmental exposure to radio-isotopes the same as an 'x-ray. Go ahead, inhale a small particle of plutonium.
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