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Gibbon
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Look it's very simple, if you weren't flabbergasted than you weren't someone to take seriously in the first place, or now for that matter.
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Probably only thing that could tip the US into a currency crisis is, el-revolution! where the top 0.1% of Americans try to covert their dollar denominated assets into Swiss Franks on the taxi ride to the airport.
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Neoliberal isn't an epithets at least historically. Learn your economics dude.
Toggle Commented Aug 12, 2015 on Worst Forecaster at the Fed at Economist's View
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The golden age employment to population ratio can't be compared to current without taking into consideration that during the golden age large numbers of women were engaged in unpaid child rearing. Which is critical economically useful work. But because it's unpaid economists studiously ignore it. It's 'leisure' Now men and women have to share child rearing duties while holding down jobs.
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One can go back and read what he posted on his blog circa 2008-2009. It's only a few hundred posts. Um... my memory was of him saying roughly, this isn't really a problem because the politicians and central bankers just have to do the obvious thing vis liquidity injection and fiscal stimulus, etc and this will be contained. And my thinking, and yes those f*ckers are certainly _not_ going to do that because they're far more craven then Brad thinks. I do say, Brads come around to my way of thinking on that.
Toggle Commented Aug 12, 2015 on Worst Forecaster at the Fed at Economist's View
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There is a reasonable difference between mass killings between the US and the Japanese. When on considers the lines of power. The US incinerated what a million Japanese civilians directly and also starved many of them indirectly by destroying the Japanese Merchant marine what was needed to import food. Just for starters the Japanese murdered a quarter million Chinese in retaliation for helping the Doolittle airmen escape. The difference is, in both cases the slaughtered civilians were under the protection of the Imperial Japanese government. Ordinary civilians that fell under the control of the US, British, and Soviets weren't murdered as per policy like what happened to civilians that fell under the control of the Japanese or Germans. One can say, perhaps the bombings of civilians by Allies in WWII was bad, and we shouldn't have done that. But it's not equivalent to what the Japanese and Germans did.
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""a) Yes, but everybody does X; that is how the adversarial method works."" This is how law works not science. The take away is the fresh water economists mission is not science, their mission is political.
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There is a huge cottage industry devoted to de-annoymizing web traffic. The motivation is to better serve up ads. For instance I went on amazon and looked at pressure cookers. This was after the Bostom Marathon bombing. I'd remembered I'd been thinking about getting a pressure cooker the better to steam artichokes. Anyway for about two months after that... youtube kept serving me up ads for full figured bras. Next there is a totally sleazy business of spamming and scamming people via email. This is because unlike youtube where a scammer has to pay to get his ad put up, email is sort of free. Tells you something that when visiting the right wing websites, the old inbox gets filled with spam from grifters. Far as I get when you visit left wing websites that mostly doesn't happen.
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That Back Propagation Induction-Unraveling from the Long Run Omega Point, long run thing sounds like the unexpected hanging paradox in reverse. "A judge tells a condemned prisoner that he will be hanged at noon on one weekday in the following week but that the execution will be a surprise to the prisoner. He will not know the day of the hanging until the executioner knocks on his cell door at noon that day. Having reflected on his sentence, the prisoner draws the conclusion that he will escape from the hanging. His reasoning is in several parts. He begins by concluding that the "surprise hanging" can't be on Friday, as if he hasn't been hanged by Thursday, there is only one day left - and so it won't be a surprise if he's hanged on Friday. Since the judge's sentence stipulated that the hanging would be a surprise to him, he concludes it cannot occur on Friday. He then reasons that the surprise hanging cannot be on Thursday either, because Friday has already been eliminated and if he hasn't been hanged by Wednesday night, the hanging must occur on Thursday, making a Thursday hanging not a surprise either. By similar reasoning he concludes that the hanging can also not occur on Wednesday, Tuesday or Monday. Joyfully he retires to his cell confident that the hanging will not occur at all. The next week, the executioner knocks on the prisoner's door at noon on Wednesday — which, despite all the above, was an utter surprise to him. Everything the judge said came true." Obviously the long run when inflation spikes and everyone short bonds makes a killing is 'tomorrow'
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Since no one it talking murder charges, must be live boy.
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I read this earlier, stand by my comment Pareto optimal should be called Pareto Attractor because the words efficient and optimal have anthropomorphic value judgement baggage. "an attractor is a set of numerical values toward which a system tends to evolve, for a wide variety of starting conditions of the system." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attractor
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I think I would refer to that as the Pareto Attractor since optimality and efficiency carry meanings that are definitely not applicable. Seriously Pareto Attractor sounds very much more like Benford's law than anything.
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30:1 leverage, not regulation, not transparency, what could go wrong. Also political capture by the finance sector meant Congress, Obama, Ben Bernanke and Timothy F. Geithner made sure that underwater homeowners couldn't get out from under ruinous mortgages via the bankruptcy process. Forcing homeowners to make the banks whole probably, a 200 billion/yr drag on the economy.
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There of course the follow on Proposition 58 that allows ones heirs to inherit the property tax exemption as well, in perpetuity.
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This of course is a good one, http://blogs.wsj.com/pharmalot/2015/05/08/to-what-extent-should-a-drug-maker-be-allowed-to-convey-off-label-info/ tl;dr: The FDA doesn't have the power to interfere with a drug companies freedom of speech when it comes to promoting off label uses.
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One thing I remember my Grandmother a renter on a fixed income saying. Every time there was a social security cost of lining increase the landlord would raise the rent by the same amount. Which instilled in me the idea that any benefits you want hand over to low income people need to somehow be protected from the landlord, etc etc etc. Better to tax wealth and property and use the money to pay for the poor folks kids to go to school, then to give poor folks an income tax break. Second best is to tax the poor and use it to pay for stuff they use. Social Security is exactly the latter. The government takes some $$$ which in reality comes out of the landlords pocket. And in return promises some income during retirement. probably all of Social Security really comes out of the landlords pocket.
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My feeling too, at nominally zero they are still on the wrong side of the curve, raise rates economy crashes. Yet they are under a lot of pressure to get interest rates back up so the rentiers can makes some f*king money.
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0. John Cochrane falls into the trap of thinking that energy, resources, and labor flow through the economy like money does through a set of double entry ledgers.
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> His claim to be "well" was a falsehood. The denial is an acknowledgement
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I can't help but read this stuff and think that the Chicken Littles have this idea that there is some perfect monetary policy that needs to be followed at all costs. Since they have been trained to fear the inflation monster, they fear any policy that could under some future circumstance fail under inflationary pressure. Ignoring that in the face of inflation the central bank could (Bring my smelling salts, and cover your ears Martha) *change it's policy* Anothercritque I see and me answer. Q: B..Bu But what is the investors don't want to do what the central bank wants? A: The Nice Mr Central Banker being able to print at will, will totally ratf*ck you if you don't play along. 'What if I get another sax player' https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgfZVNv6w2E
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Please Neanderthal is a slur, the proper term is Yeti http://subgenius.wikia.com/wiki/Yeti *cough*
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There is only one set of four anti-aircraft guns in the flak tower, makes me think this is after the war.
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You really need to be able to click on those graphs to see a larger version.
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Problem with metrics, measure something and then comes the urge to control the number to three decimal places. Same prob;em with test limits, limits are 1.56 2.17, thus 2.16 is okay and 2.18 is fail. I would say disposable income is a good metric. Or savings rate.
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One of my old college professors pointed out, your average car has 100 HP worth of gas and 400 HP worth of brakes. In this case the economy is missing on a couple of cylinders and the Fed is afraid to take it's foot of the brake, cause... Actually my thought has been, if yields on new bonds ever went to 5% the 'value' of old ZIRP paper, and fixed assets like housing would plummet. If mortgage rates go from 3.5% to 7% what does that do to the asking price of a house? Ans: Price has to drop 33% to keep the same mortgage. Same time a bunch of people in variable rate mortgages become insolvent.
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