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George Rebane
Naturalized Citizen, Entrepreneur, Professional Engineer and Systems Scientist formally trained in Physics, Complex Dynamic Systems, and Computer Science.
Interests: music, history, friends, community, science/cosmology, future of man, avid reader, camping/canoeing, and family, philosophy, politics, investing, flying, shooting
Recent Activity
RussS 913pm - You can bet the ranch that China, Russia, Iran, India, North Korea, ... are not putting up with any of that crap in the combat systems development programs. As before - Obama does not have the best interests of America in mind.
Toggle Commented 1 hour ago on Sandbox – 30jan16 at Rebane's Ruminations
To start things off Jo Ann and I took independent cuts at the outcome of the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday. A convenient way to express a bunch of MABs whose realized values have to add up to a certain number is to first pick your best guess or most likely (M) values and make them add up to that certain number – here we took that to be 100% of the vote for each party. Then go back and put in the L/H values that you think bracket your best guess in the smallest reasonable range, and finally review your best guess and write in your confidence C values. So here are our [L, H, M, C] tuples. JAR Trump 19%, 26%, 21%, 0.6 Cruz 15, 20, 17, 0.2 Rubio 17, 28, 20, 0.3 Kasich 9, 15, 10, 0.3 Bush 5, 10, 6, 0.3 Christie 8, 12, 9, 0.4 Fiorina 8, 12, 10, 0.4 Carson 5, 10, 6, 0.3 Clinton 20, 40, 30, 0.4 Sanders 40, 80, 70, 0.3 GJR Trump 25%, 38%, 28%, 0.5 Cruz 15, 25, 20, 0.6 Rubio 15, 20, 16, 0.4 Kasich 5, 12, 8, 0.3 Bush 8, 16, 10, 0.5 Christie 6, 12, 8, 0.3 Fiorina 2, 6, 5, 0.3 Carson 4, 7, 5, 0.3 Clinton 25, 50, 35, 0.5 Sanders 50, 75, 65, 0.6
Toggle Commented 1 hour ago on How well do we predict? at Rebane's Ruminations
George Rebane In the months leading up to this election year these pages have recorded a lot of predictions, some more vehement than others. Predicting, estimating, forecasting, …, all of them are hard and involve some level of risk depending... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Rebane's Ruminations
George Rebane We’ll start by skipping the famous Yogism about predicting. But living life successfully requires us to constantly predict the future – events that may or not happen in a time yet to come. It’s necessary to do that... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Rebane's Ruminations
An admittedly biased view of a biased organization.
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on Reinette on Voting at Rebane's Ruminations
Gregory 1043am - "... and your fantasy about the ACLU ..." You sure have a way with words Gregory.
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on Reinette on Voting at Rebane's Ruminations
George Rebane Our ongoing theme on the nation’s economic stagnation – Depression2 - led by California is abetted by Linda Erdmann’s piece - ‘Fleeing the Golden State’ - in the 6feb16 Union print edition and a couple of cogent ZeroHedge... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Rebane's Ruminations
Gregory 1001am - We disagree again. Your version was the position of the 1965 Voting Rights Act opponents - existing laws were sufficient. My version recognizes that being able to and having the legal right are two separate notions which the 1965 VRA also recognized and sought to force states to correct. Re the citizen's arrest - you made the right decision. The Left with their ACLU allies would have brought civil suit against you for a number of reasons, probably starting with emotional harm. You would have been in court for years.
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on Reinette on Voting at Rebane's Ruminations
Gregory 111pm - My own belief is that "every citizen whose franchise has not been suspended or shredded for good cause should be able to vote if they want to" - a slight but perhaps important variation from yours. Where I have a difference with most (especially liberal) people is about how much society should encourage empty (or even jaundiced) vessels to enter the voting booth. In days of yore, such uncategorical encouragement was more universally eschewed.
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on Reinette on Voting at Rebane's Ruminations
A nation ignorant and free, that never was and never shall be. Thomas Jefferson George Rebane For those new to Nevada County our Ms Reinette Senum (pictured) needs a bit of an introduction. She is the former mayor of Nevada... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Rebane's Ruminations
BillT 851am - The last two (italicized) paragraphs in my post are from the Union's letter to the editor by a leftwing reader cautioning all about the Right's "delusional Orwellian fantasy". This man sees nothing but a bright yellow brick road in front of us on which we can happy dance all the way to Oz.
re RussS 430pm - One of the constant themes on RR for the last nine years has been that it is ALWAYS the Left that seeks to stifle speech and expression of ideas that don't fit their narrative. The independent reader is encouraged to do his own research on the topic. The model has been and continues to be Orwell's 1984 and Alinsky. And note how unabashed they are when they continue to make such proposals. To the progressive the proscription of free speech is as natural as the sun rising in the morning, he sees nothing at all wrong with it.
Does anyone have an idea of what may be a 'compelling event' for Bloomberg to throw his hat in the ring as a Dem? as an Independent? When/if that happens, I think we will start a new campaign for the presidency.
Gentlemen - yes, our designated reader emailed me FUE's latest furious fusillade directed against me and my KVMR commentaries. I suppose it fills his need for content and readership. Nevertheless, I don't want us to dwell on the man, he does that quite well by himself thank you. I'd like to see some takes on how the Dems will handle the Bloomberg behemoth waiting in the wings (see also 4feb16 update). Your astute observations please.
George Rebane [This is the addended transcript of my regular KVMR commentary broadcast on 3 February 2016.] Even before her Monday’s disaster in Iowa, Hillary’s campaign for the Democrat presidential nomination had become so fractured that the line of potential... Continue reading
Posted 5 days ago at Rebane's Ruminations
drivebyposter 1159am - It's still not (technically) clear what the limits of crowd-sense predictions are given the volatility (noise bandwidth) of public opinion. In its finality it comes down to the inability to predict the timing and/or intensity of events/happenings that can be considered as the black swans of public opinion.
jons 850am - well enough, and I said as much in my 1034pm. However, your strong conclusion discounts decades (century plus?) of America's political history and pragmatic practice. Were Iowa's caucuses as information free and non-applicable to the rest of the country, then no one would give a big rat's ass what happens in their caucuses. However, that has not been the case, therefore you seem to consign the political parties' received importance of Iowa to mass hysteria and ignorance.
drivebyposter 612am - did you disagree with my 922pm or just ignore it?
jons 1003pm - not sure you understood my 922pm. No one suggested using Iowa to predict anything - did you? But I do suggest that this Nov the election will also be determined by "people who, for whatever reason, were motivated to vote."
hunter 648pm - Gary Johnson would be an excellent protest vote for those not wanting to support either major party. I would strongly recommend him to readers like Mr PaulE. GeorgeB 414pm - Mr Boardman, unless you have a very unique definition of "representative sample", the 140K number (which I addressed in the update to this post) should be more than enough to get a very precise snapshot of Republican sentiments when the evangelical skew is factored out. You might be interested in how small a random sample need be to provide some very tight bounds on population proportions derived from samples. For example, from the classic error banana curves, the maximum error from 1,000 sample size occurs at the observed (i.e. polled) proportion of 0.5. 95% of the time the actual population proportion will then lie between 0.465 and 0.535. When the observed proportion moves off 0.5 the error bounds contract markedly to give even more credence to the sample as being 'representative' of the population. Isn't science wonderful? The only problem we now have to deal with is the volatility of public opinion for that has a very large bandwidth which we can discuss at another time. Bottom line, measuring public opinion is a bitch.
GeorgeB 1008pm - while you are correct in the aggregate, there have been occasions when the young under-educated and pre-experienced have backed revolutions that have toppled established governments (some that have deserved to be toppled - e.g. Batista - but their cure has almost always been worse than the disease). RussS 513pm - You'r a hard man Mr Steele. These kinds of clinical finds make it real hard to promote the legalization of drugs like MJ. The simple tradeoff suddenly takes on deeper twists and turns. I continue to take comfort in that legal whiskey and tobacco have their own clinical downsides, yet their consumption is both managed and tolerated by society better than if they were made illegal.
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on Sandbox – 30jan16 at Rebane's Ruminations
George Rebane The clear winners were Bernie Sanders and Marco Rubio. Neither were projected to make much of a showing against the self-adorned leaders of their parties. Ted Cruz’s nominal victory is going to have a tough time running a... Continue reading
Posted 6 days ago at Rebane's Ruminations
ToddJ 1131am - "free market affordable housing project"?? - an oxymoron. Did you mean 'free market low cost housing project'?
Toggle Commented 7 days ago on Sandbox – 30jan16 at Rebane's Ruminations
jons 923am - you and ToddJ might make sure you're both talking about the same thing. 'Affordable housing' is a political enterprise usually enforced by the government gun. Do not confuse it with 'low cost housing' which is a free market offering by the developer. Low cost housing is built to satisfy a market demand, while affordable housing is built by diktat for subsidized consumption in a government mangled market.
Toggle Commented 7 days ago on Sandbox – 30jan16 at Rebane's Ruminations
BonnieM 138pm - You may have missed it, but this post is about the milestone of AI mastering the game of Go (see photo) ;-)