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Thanks for your reaction.
we need to burn as much tar sands, lignite and Arctic oil as possible.
Let's not even try that. It is not our purpose in life to try that.
PIOMAS May 2014
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: On the PIOMAS website the following is written: The 2014 ice volume reached its annual maximum in Ap...
Hi Neven.
What are your thoughts on the negative feedback of increased precipitation as suggested by Bintanja & Selten in Nature ?
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature13259.html
They suggest the increased precipitation (snow) may slowdown the melting of the Greenland icesheet, other glaciers and Arctic sea-ice.
The increased evaporation and precipitation in the Arctic may even slowdown the rise of the sealevel.
PIOMAS May 2014
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: On the PIOMAS website the following is written: The 2014 ice volume reached its annual maximum in Ap...
Pretty amazing: average thickness gained 15 cm compared to last year. If another 15 cm is added this year arctic seaice wil be back to 2005-thickness.
PIOMAS January 2014
Another month/year has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Whereas last month 2013 volume had crept somewhat closer to top low years 2010, 2011 and 2012, t...
"set the blogosphere ablaze in coming days"
This kind of research will always heat things up, it will never cool things down, if you catch my drift. ;-)
The 'hiatus' and the Arctic
There's a new research paper out that will probably set the blogosphere ablaze in coming days, especially the fake skeptic part of it. Why? Because it espouses a theory that explains the slowdown in the rate of temperature rise of the past decade and a half (depending on your starting point). A...
"Ice Breaking ships are a main cause of Arctic sea ice loss is my feeling."
Well,... I guess they contribute a little bit.
Anyway, it costs a lot of diesel fuel to break up Arctic seaice. Peakoil will also mean peak-icebreaker. ;-)
ASI 2013 update 8: the end is nigh
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...
Arctic Oscillation forecasts are dead in the water / sitting ducks.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml
All quiet on the Northern Front.
ASI 2013 update 3: the Arctic goes POP
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...
SSTs between 50°N and 80°N are starting to rise in the first week of June: http://goo.gl/8fCNt
Just like last year.
SSTs will max out in August
ASI 2013 update 2: shaken and stirred
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...
Seasurfacetemperature between 50 and 80°N is just above normal, as in May 2011 and May 2012.
Usually June and July show a stron warming over the seasurface above 50°.
http://goo.gl/DopQ8
Let's see what happens this year.
ASI 2013 update 2: shaken and stirred
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...
It will be a miserable summer in the Netherlands, Neven.
North Sea SST is still more than 1°C below the 30-year average for the last week of May. It will take a lot of sunlight to bring the temperature back to normal.
ASI 2013 update 1: a slow start
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...
Like your paraphrase of Joe Bastardi's "Enjoy the weather".
Slow start of the melting season is something to be cheerful about, I guess.
The longer than usual winter in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere may be a factor in the slow start.
ASI 2013 update 1: a slow start
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...
Neven, if the relation between summer Arctic sea-ice-extent and AO is real, we can use the minimum-sea-ice-extent of 2013 to predict the value of the AO in the winter of 2014.
Less sea-ice could mean a more negative Arctic Oscillation, couldn't it?
;-)
Crowd-Source Prediction of Minimum Arctic Sea Ice
How does the collective wisdom of Arctic Sea Ice blog participants compare with expert scientific analysis in forecasting the September sea ice extent? This question seems worth exploring with a crowd-source experiment. You are all invited to submit, as comments to this post, your best guess for...
BTW it is an unreparable pitty we still need such studies - by this time we should have been ALL massively involved in decarbonisation of our society - forever.
Ac A: Decarbonisation has already started. The process is picking up speed and may be happening a lot faster than you'd like. Ask the Greek and the Spaniards.
If you want to stay informed on the decarbonisation check the Post Carbon Institute-website and Gail Tverberg's weblog Our Finite World.
Survey measuring consensus in climate research
I received this request from Skeptical Science's John Cook: As one of the more highly trafficked climate blogs on the web, I’m seeking your assistance in conducting a crowd-sourced online survey of peer-reviewed climate research. I have compiled a database of around 12,000 papers listed in the ...
Neven, I'm puzzled by the lag of 4 months or more between the Arctic summer-melt and the winter-cooling of Eurasia.
I can understand that an icefree, warm Arctic Ocean causes more snow in October, November and December.
But now can the ice-covered Arctic Ocean still influence weatherpatterns in February and March?
Maybe 2013 is just a freak anomalous winter like 1963.
Met Office looks into Arctic link to weird weather
Commenter Steve Bloom always links to interesting stuff (if the new spam filter system lets him). This time it's about an article on the ITV website (and in the sensationalist Daily Mail) that links Arctic warming and sea ice loss to the late outburst of weird winter weather in the UK and the re...
@Chris Reynolds + Arnd Bernaerts:
North Sea surfacetemperature is on a downward trend since 2006
http://cassandraclub.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/noordzeeapr2006apr2013maand.jpg
It is not a temporary cooling
Met Office looks into Arctic link to weird weather
Commenter Steve Bloom always links to interesting stuff (if the new spam filter system lets him). This time it's about an article on the ITV website (and in the sensationalist Daily Mail) that links Arctic warming and sea ice loss to the late outburst of weird winter weather in the UK and the re...
@Steve Bloom: thanks for the nudge in the right direction.
More about SSW's:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/01/110121081051.htm
and
http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/researchhighlights/SSW/
Looking for winter weirdness 6
I wasn't expecting another instalment in this year's series of blog posts on Winter Weirdness, extreme weather events that could be linked to the decline in Arctic sea ice. It's not even winter anymore officially. But as spring has been revoked in large parts of Europe, and the atmospheric blo...
R. Gates: thank you for your comment.
But we still don't know what causes SSW's and what we can expect for the future.
Looking for winter weirdness 6
I wasn't expecting another instalment in this year's series of blog posts on Winter Weirdness, extreme weather events that could be linked to the decline in Arctic sea ice. It's not even winter anymore officially. But as spring has been revoked in large parts of Europe, and the atmospheric blo...
Neven, between 1987 and 1996 the AO was more often positive than negative.
Between 1996 and 2008 longterm AO-average was around zero (neutral).
But since 2008 the AO-average is heading towards the slightly negative value seen between 1950 and 1985.
http://cassandraclub.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/ao19502012.jpg
What could have caused the positive AO between 1987 - 1996?
What is causing the AO to return to the normal 20th century pattern?
By the way, the NH-snowcover is still way above normal.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/nhtime-4month.png
Looking for winter weirdness 6
I wasn't expecting another instalment in this year's series of blog posts on Winter Weirdness, extreme weather events that could be linked to the decline in Arctic sea ice. It's not even winter anymore officially. But as spring has been revoked in large parts of Europe, and the atmospheric blo...
Thank you, Neven, euros for your thoughts
Arctic freezing season ends with a loud crack
This is a guest blog I wrote for Climate Progress and Skeptical Science. You may use it as a new open thread to discuss the cracking event. I will try and do a more detailed winter analysis in April, if Allah and time permit. --- The sea ice cap on top of the Arctic Ocean is often imagined to ...
Neven, do you have any ideas what is causing the atmospheric blocking and the deeply negative AO?
Is it just greenhouse gasses or can we blame the low solar activity as well?
Arctic freezing season ends with a loud crack
This is a guest blog I wrote for Climate Progress and Skeptical Science. You may use it as a new open thread to discuss the cracking event. I will try and do a more detailed winter analysis in April, if Allah and time permit. --- The sea ice cap on top of the Arctic Ocean is often imagined to ...
Shell is temporarily barred from drilling in the Arctic.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/mar/15/shell-barred-drill-oil-arctic
Statoil has postponed expolaration in the Chukchi-sea.
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2013/03/05/statoil-may-abandon-us-arctic-drilling-leases/
Sell your car en stop flying: peakoil is upon us :-)
Crack is bad for you (and sea ice)
The previous pun - cracks of dawn - was wearing off, and the comment section was getting full, so here's a new pun and blog post dedicated to the cracking event that started in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas a couple of weeks ago, and then moved on to the multi-year ice against the Canadian Archi...
Make that giant leap for mankind and STOP DRIVING
Slogan contest
Events in the Arctic deserve all the attention they can get. One original way of doing so is regularly being undertaken by commenter scarlet p, also known as the Freewayblogger. He puts up signs on the freeways of California and the western United States to increase awareness of several issues, ...
C: Don't go drilling in the Arctic. Just say no.
Indeed.
Just ask Ben Bernanke to print those huge returns.
The FED is already laundering $80 billion of "bad debt" every month.
Why bother with drilling and extracting oil, if you can simply make money out of thin air. ;-)
Shell drill spill?
It all sounds so simple: Arctic sea ice is retreating, so let's get over there and start some off-shore drilling! Unfortunately the Arctic isn't a friendly place, not to humans and not to oil executives. Commenter Lodger links to this ominous news article about the Kulluk, "a $290 million off...
Hot or not: Christmas 2012 is whiter than usual.
Nothern Hemisphere snowcover is way above the normal for december.
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2012&ui_day=360&ui_set=2
Looking for winter weirdness 3
It's been a while since we had a first couple of signs of winter weirdness, back in October, when superstorm Sandy took a 90 degree left turn due to a ridge of blocking highs along southern Greenland, and some cold air spilled from the central Arctic over Europe, bringing very early snow to the ...
In a high-pressure system skies are clear and thus a lot of heat gets radiated, lowering surface temperatures.
Neven, I think that the air in the high-pressure-area is very dry and the lack of watervapour also facilitates cooling.
I'm a novice in weathersystems can you tell me whether the high-pressure-area is the result of cooling or is it the cause of cooling?
Looking for winter weirdness 3
It's been a while since we had a first couple of signs of winter weirdness, back in October, when superstorm Sandy took a 90 degree left turn due to a ridge of blocking highs along southern Greenland, and some cold air spilled from the central Arctic over Europe, bringing very early snow to the ...
I'm still reading the part about Northern Hemisphere snowcover.
'Till lured by sirens' cry.'
The real AR5 bombshell
The whole fake skeptic propaganda effort disguised as 'leak' is boring me to death, but of course it's interesting to have a sneak peek preview of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and see what they will have to say about Arctic sea ice. Geoff Beacon from the Brussels Blog already had a g...
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