Neven, if the relation between summer Arctic sea-ice-extent and AO is real, we can use the minimum-sea-ice-extent of 2013 to predict the value of the AO in the winter of 2014. Less sea-ice could mean a more negative Arctic Oscillation, couldn't it? ;-)

BTW it is an unreparable pitty we still need such studies - by this time we should have been ALL massively involved in decarbonisation of our society - forever. Ac A: Decarbonisation has already started. The process is picking up speed and may be happening a lot faster than you'd like. Ask the Greek and the Spaniards. If you want to stay informed on the decarbonisation check the Post Carbon Institute-website and Gail Tverberg's weblog Our Finite World.

Neven, I'm puzzled by the lag of 4 months or more between the Arctic summer-melt and the winter-cooling of Eurasia. I can understand that an icefree, warm Arctic Ocean causes more snow in October, November and December. But now can the ice-covered Arctic Ocean still influence weatherpatterns in February and March? Maybe 2013 is just a freak anomalous winter like 1963.

@Chris Reynolds + Arnd Bernaerts: North Sea surfacetemperature is on a downward trend since 2006 http://cassandraclub.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/noordzeeapr2006apr2013maand.jpg It is not a temporary cooling

@Steve Bloom: thanks for the nudge in the right direction. More about SSW's: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/01/110121081051.htm and http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/researchhighlights/SSW/

R. Gates: thank you for your comment. But we still don't know what causes SSW's and what we can expect for the future.

Neven, between 1987 and 1996 the AO was more often positive than negative. Between 1996 and 2008 longterm AO-average was around zero (neutral). But since 2008 the AO-average is heading towards the slightly negative value seen between 1950 and 1985. http://cassandraclub.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/ao19502012.jpg What could have caused the positive AO between 1987 - 1996? What is causing the AO to return to the normal 20th century pattern? By the way, the NH-snowcover is still way above normal. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/nhtime-4month.png

Thank you, Neven, euros for your thoughts

Neven, do you have any ideas what is causing the atmospheric blocking and the deeply negative AO? Is it just greenhouse gasses or can we blame the low solar activity as well?

Shell is temporarily barred from drilling in the Arctic. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/mar/15/shell-barred-drill-oil-arctic Statoil has postponed expolaration in the Chukchi-sea. http://fuelfix.com/blog/2013/03/05/statoil-may-abandon-us-arctic-drilling-leases/ Sell your car en stop flying: peakoil is upon us :-)

Make that giant leap for mankind and STOP DRIVING

C: Don't go drilling in the Arctic. Just say no. Indeed. Just ask Ben Bernanke to print those huge returns. The FED is already laundering $80 billion of "bad debt" every month. Why bother with drilling and extracting oil, if you can simply make money out of thin air. ;-)

Hot or not: Christmas 2012 is whiter than usual. Nothern Hemisphere snowcover is way above the normal for december. http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2012&ui_day=360&ui_set=2

In a high-pressure system skies are clear and thus a lot of heat gets radiated, lowering surface temperatures. Neven, I think that the air in the high-pressure-area is very dry and the lack of watervapour also facilitates cooling. I'm a novice in weathersystems can you tell me whether the high-pressure-area is the result of cooling or is it the cause of cooling?

I'm still reading the part about Northern Hemisphere snowcover. 'Till lured by sirens' cry.'

We have already given up on space-exploration. We see that manned space-expeditions are just a waste of energy and resources. Polar expeditions are becoming very expensive. We will soon realize that polar expeditions are also a waste of hydrocarbon fuel. The title Last Ice Expedition may be a bit premature. But sooner or later mankind will stop travelling tot the Southpole. Peakoil is a bitch.

@Tim: I wish you would take me a little more serious. The bottomline for the use of methane-hydrate will be the EROEI, the Energy Return on Energy Invested. If the EROEI is 5 or lower (comparable to tarsand-oil and shale-oil), then methane-hydrate has no place in our current society. Maybe it can be used locally so the Alaskans don't have to chop up so many trees.

We might as well start using frozen methane hydrate in the arctic as a heating fuel. http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/looks-like-ice-burns-like-a-candle-frozen-methane-hydrate-may-be-new-alaska-energy-source/2012/11/11/42bce282-2c1d-11e2-b631-2aad9d9c73ac_story.html

Well, Steve Bloom, I think our children think a world without cars, planes and the internet is a living hell. Just ask some teenagers.

The Arctic is a very inconvenient topic for skeptics. The next subject on Climatedialogue.org, whatever it may be, will be easier for the skeptics and more challenging for the warmist-side. Let's give this initiative a fair chance. 'given the magnitude of this event and its rate of change, how do we start minimizing our contributions to it?' < ahref="http://www.postcarbon.org/blog-post/1306494-you-can-t-say-that">Richard Heinberg of the Post Carbon Institute has a good suggestion: "Yes, the most effective way to slow climate change is to shrink the economy. That statement is inconvenient as hell, but it’s true." The new inconvenient truth is that you might have to give up driving, flying and the internet to stop climate change.

Unusual snowfall for October in Moscow: http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/heavy-snowfall-catches-muscovites-unprepared/470525.html Heavy snow and strong winds hit France: http://www.sott.net/article/252874-Two-missing-after-heavy-snow-and-strong-winds-hit-France

Negative territory? That's not negative territory. This is negative territory. ;-) http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/ao-index_122909.png

Neven, I stumbled upon another glitch in the matrix. The data of Rutgers University Global Snow Lab shows the complete Greenland icecap melted on sep 13th. http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2012&ui_day=257&ui_set=2 I was relieved to see that all snow and ice had returned to Greenland next day http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2012&ui_day=258&ui_set=2

I find the 3rd graph very interesting. My friend Paradox also writes about Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover (in Dutch): http://paradoxnl.wordpress.com/2012/08/21/juni-en-juli-2012-diepte-record-omvang-van-het-sneeuwtapijt-op-noordelijk-halfrond/

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/wksst/5.gif Seasurface-temperature in the North Pacific is below normal. Is that a good sign or a bad sign?