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Werther
Stiftsche uiterwaard, Varik, Gelderland, The Netherlands
High School for gardening and landscaping, public and private designer and constructor
Interests: Geography, history, arts, philosophy, nature (especially birdwatching)
Recent Activity
Day 186 brought a good bright day over an important part of the CAB. The part North of CAA and Greenland that 'holds' te mesh-pack. The good view stretched North of Svalbard into the Frantsa Yosefa region. There was a band of good visibility right through to the Laptev Bite. And The Beaufort Sea was well in view. So what? Well, the 'mesh-pack' looks replaced, almost fitting tile r04c03 (N CAA) but pretty sliced up by broad leads. The Lincoln Sea ice is melting; it's all blue. The Beaufort is heavily melting. Melt ponds are visible almost everywhere (grey shades)and the fragmented floes in the Siberian side of the CAB are slowly making place for more 'holes'. From a quality point of view, this season is on track for considerable damage.
Toggle Commented Jul 6, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
Following the reading of the ‘melt season’-thread at the Forum, I’d like to make a short post here. An attempt to summarize. On the metrics SIA/SIE I was wrong last year. But even then, Sep ’13, I didn’t feel like my ‘credibility’ was torn. It doesn’t really matter to me anyway. The (partly masochistic) joy is in witnessing the ride, whatever it may bring. Anyway, I still think that the trend since 2006 is always down, with steps (especially ’10 and ’12). There’s no metric on ice quality. So my standpoint about last year cannot be made hard. Although I voted for an SIE/SIA minimum between ’13 and ’12, based on quality the sea ice could go almost anywhere. Busy interpreting the differences in CAD, on a regional basis, my first impression on the whole state is that the safe ‘mesh-pattern’ MYI swath against the CA is now just over 1.1 Mkm2. Down again. The rest is awfully volatile. In comparison to 2012, hold in the mind that the structural losses were immense. Both winters after that had bad ‘winter-power’(13-14 the worst), not much was ‘repaired’ through these freeze periods. Last summer, although anomalously cold, didn’t ‘repair’ anything, it was just a delay. So June 2014 the status quo is pretty much where it was left September 2012 from a quality standpoint. With three months of summer to go. In an ever toastier environment….
Jim, Chris, yes, that is an enormous dip on CT-SIA. I have no time to check this thoroughly in CAD. Anyway, from what I did pick up on MODIS, the steep drop does make some sense. In a mere two days the area with melt ponds and extensive snow melt has 'exploded', FI over Hudson Bay and - Strait, Foxe Basin, Baffin Bay. But gaining traction in the Beaufort, Chukchi and on the East Siberian landfast ice, too. On top of that, even the Central Arctic Basin shows incredible lead-extension. The Frantsa Yosefa region is splintering up just like last year. Some effects of cloud moisture cannot be ruled out, like the melt-pond-fooling. But it is exciting to watch. Even the Nares-cork seems to be under pression...
Iceman, hi, Why would the sea ice in the Beaufort Sea be less conducive to melt pond formation now? As far as I know, the big intrusion of MYI into there was during winter '12-'13. Still, by 17 June last year the whole stretch Banks-Taymir was coverd by blue- and greyish hues indicating extensive melt pond formation. Given the flow last winter, I don't expect much more MYI to have gathered up there. For the prognosis, sure, as June is summer, large swaths of the Arctic Basin regularly get melt temperatures. Expect the whole same stretch to get ´blue´ next week. I can´t see more than Rosel´s abstract, but that lead suits my own expectations. If a weather pattern producing compaction and insolation would have lasted for two weeks in July/August last year, it would have produced what most of us expected. Finally, I managed to do a basic CAD supported count on temp anomaly for May ´12, ´13 and ´14. The correlation (NCEP-NCAR): +1.6dC/+0.1dC/+1.0dC. Starting from there, I see a lot of support for SIE/SIA minimum getting close to a second place this year.
Some last muses... So there it is. I’m starting to look for ice quality difference (as I have lots of MODIS material saved from June-Sep ’10-’13). There’s no objective measure on that approach. Even last summer it was my own personal impression that this quality did steadily become worse. Even though the numerical approaches looked like ‘rebound’. I haven’t disputed that, because it is like arguing on different views. Whatever this years outcome may be. The buffering capacity of all biospheric systems on the planet is collapsing. The already built-up ‘bank-account’ and the relentless GHG-output growth will have rapid consequences. Modelling can be done until the bucket is kicked. Zooming in on just counting pixels too. It’s easy to miss the big picture like that. I think FI Wadham's view on first ice-free minimum is still relevant.
On melt ponds, I never had the impression that May would show the first important growth of these. Ususally they form during June, remember FI the timing visible on the Polar cams. Where the first signs show is usually Bering (ice already gone now), Mackenzie Gulf, Amundsen Gulf, the fastice against N Siberia. In my opinion, melt ponding is a significant starter of the process in the Arctic Basin and its adjacent parts of Beaufort, Chukchi and East Sib Seas, about 5 Mkm2. For the whole rest, getting ‘grey and blue’ is just a stage in the seasonal swing to open ocean. On the relevant part, melt ponding will start around third week of June, when conditions are right. It corresponds with the ‘June cliff’ in volume during the period ’07-’12 (cf. Chris Reynolds).
Thanks, Neven! I have a couple of 'nuances', mainly on temps/DMI and the relevance of melt ponds. This is on temps: DMI +80dN mean temps don’t tell the whole story. During May, on average the sea ice is spread out over the whole Arctic Ocean. DMI temp is relevant for app. 3.3 Mkm2 ice cover in the essential part of the CAB. The part which was thought to have at least not lost more of its supposed remaining coherence last summer. For the vast part of the Arctic Ocean, some 10 Mkm2, DMI mean temp doesn’t say anything. The lot of it will melt out anyway. As, in my opinion, ‘winter power’ hasn’t been conducive for ice growth in the whole peripheral circle Beaufort Sea-Laptev Sea, there is not much chance for even a 2013-like summer to let ice remain like it did in the Beaufort and East Sib Sea last year. When NCEP/NCAR is analyzed for the Arctic Ocean proper over May, there’s not that much difference with the ’12 mean temps. The difference with ’13 is large. And ’14 was lots warmer than ’07. Charts/maps would be great here, but that’s better on the thread.
Hi Chris, Thanks for the analysis. I think you set up a good reference-line for the deploying season. As I suspected based on 'winter power', the Bering side doesn't look good. You illustrated that. It will be 'fun' to see how and if a developing ENSO event might affect the sea ice.
Toggle Commented May 13, 2014 on PIOMAS May 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Whatever PIOMAS and volume may hold, I'm a bit surprised after going over MODIS tonight. Especially the r05c04 tile 'New Siberian Islands'. Near Wrangel the ice is breaking up extensively. The polynia near the Novosibirsk Islands is even larger than the same in June '13. Though there are no melt ponds in vue yet, the severe cracking over most of the tile area does seem to indicate a quality that is weeks ahead/worse than last year...
Toggle Commented May 12, 2014 on PIOMAS May 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Colorado, hi, For those interested, Austfonna Jokull is on Nordaustlandet, the remote NE island of Svalbard.
Toggle Commented May 9, 2014 on PIOMAS May 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks for the resumé, Neven. I’d like to weigh in on PIOMAS April ’14 too with some NCEP/NCAR comparisons, but find trouble with my system/programs. So let me just say I’m a bit surprised to see the ‘flat’ line on volume. Especially the ‘second bump’ near the end of the month, whereas the lines for ’12 and ’13 started moving down. I see not much on the 1000Mb temperature reanalysis that could easily correspond with these differences. Bottom line is the explanation on the PIOMAS site about uncertainty margins. The same goes for the temp differences,nothing obvious. So a couple of hundred km3’s are probably not worth much attention when this season gets further down the line. BTW read Bernice’s blog post (I think 7/5) on Expedition Hope, a vivid description of the actual state of the MYI North of Ellesmere!
Toggle Commented May 9, 2014 on PIOMAS May 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks, Neven, Wish you and your family a good and happy move into that fine home.May it also provide a place for you to, sometimes, catch up when you need it.That catch lies beyond the tasks, as ínfinity lies beyond things (free after Spinoza...).
Toggle Commented Apr 29, 2014 on Getting ready at Arctic Sea Ice
There it is... as expected.... Jisao PDO index has updated for March: 2014** 0.30 0.38 0.97 Source: http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest
Toggle Commented Apr 11, 2014 on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Nine months ago Rob Painting posted on Skeptical Science about ocean heat coming back to haunt us. He couldn’t have foreseen the timing, which seems to be right now. But after about 15 years in a dominant negative mode, PDO did change face. Soon the March index will show whether the trend parallels the one from the beginning of 1997. The re-emergence of El Nino will reveal consequences of fifteen years of inaction on mitigation, a period by some ludicrously seen as a ‘stop’ of global warming. As Painting made clear in his SkS post, during the recent -PDO years, the ocean has been storing the ‘unbalanced’ heat in its deeper layers. Since the last moderate ENSO-event ’09-’10 the troposphere has progressively become disturbed. This coincides with strengthened forcing through greenhouse gases and gradual cease of the ‘rubber-band effect’ that lags/delays the climatic response. The diminishing temperature difference between the Poles and the Tropics could be traced in height gain on the 500hPa level over the Arctic. This not only had an effect, as described by FI Dr. Francis, on the behaviour of the Polar Jet stream. Other influences could be identified FI in the constant SSW attacks on the Polar Vortex past winter. ‘Loaded', slow moving Rossby waves through the mid troposphere, a West Pacific warm pool spawning monster cyclones like Haiyan. All these signs preluded the powerful Kelvin Wave now propagating through the Pacific. The coupled ocean-atmosphere system is out of balance and leads to more weather anomalies. That will also mark the ENSO-event that is now in progress. As I supposed last year on the character of the ’13 sea ice melt season: ‘action could well shift to the mid-latitudes’. Now it gets to the Tropics. What do I expect? A fascinating, though frightening series of events related to El Nino, an extended Arctic melt season, normal in the sense that it might not lead to a new minimum in SIE/SIA and volume this year. Above all, a year that may violently surpass the ‘weird’ weather years experienced since 2010. With consequences that may present ’15 as a new record setting melt year for the Arctic sea ice and the Greenland Icesheet. I find not much solace in climate predictions based on historical data and known processes. The 'old' rules are progressively becoming irrelevant. The comfortable discussions on climate sensitivity will be challenged by reality. Paintings’ stored heat is coming to haunt us, sooner and stronger than may have been foreseen.
Toggle Commented Apr 10, 2014 on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Well Jim, that pic shows that, if AWI would fly the area with their 'e-bird' again, it would reveal almost the same map as in March '12. Not surprising, the temp record on Ostrov Kotelnyj and in Tiksi also hint on less 'winterpower'. While all winter was a tad less cold than last year, the 'heatwave' during March was remarkable. Even noticeable on remote Kotelnyj.
Toggle Commented Apr 8, 2014 on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
George, FOOW, what you wrote 15:31 made perfect sense to me. Remember the AWI-map on ice thickness in the Laptev March 2012? It would be nice to have a corresponding recent map. But this situation was a result of winter ’11-’12, which produced a mean temp anomaly of just under +3 dC in that region. Last year the anomaly stuck around zero over there. But this winter, it is close to ’11-’12 again, just about +2 dC. If my musings on ‘winterpower’ have any relevance at all, it should be no wonder to see a rapid breakdown in the Laptev. Oh, the red was >+50cm thickness.
Toggle Commented Apr 8, 2014 on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Saw that too Crandles. The trendline just dipped under '12 and '13 and now bends down to join '11. It's going to be very interesting. Hope Neven gets a new post out on this and the max!
Toggle Commented Apr 7, 2014 on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
'It was weather...' yes it was Chris. just like last summer. As both undulations cancel each other out, climate remains right on track... Still, it tells nothing for the next minimum. Maybe an initiating El Nino season might protect the ice by cloudiness next summer. But keep an eye on Siberia. The cold is retreating fast, might see rapid snow cover loss over there in spring.
Toggle Commented Mar 7, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hans, Chris, This line of thinking should maybe better be put on an appropriate Forum-thread.But, maybe in line with Chris' posts, it often occurs to me that we're not the only aware minds here. While the public part of government and the media seem almost asleep, it is very likely there's a 'hidden agenda' for what's inevitable.
Quod erad demonstrandum... it's always easy to say afterwards. I humbly submit I was very surprised last August. But this PIOMAS report is right what was to be expected. Wellcome next melt season. The 'field of opportunity' lies wide open again for more exciting and depressing sea ice lurking!
Toggle Commented Mar 7, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Arctic forest... interesting read, Jai. I remembered having seen pictures of the 'wandering pole' projected on the globe in my youth. that is, I have a hunch that this forest might not have experienced the winter darkness as it is now on Axel Heiberg. Due to axis shift/plate tectonics. Can't find much more on the web than that 'relatively' the Pole could have been situated more in the region around Wrangel then. Which could place that forest on 2300 km from the Pole compared to 1100 km nowadays. I'll keep it in mind... Not much relevance for our human experiment with climate though.
Indeed, Jai, That figure only specifies the role of CO2 in case of an instant doubling. Fixed ice sheets, fixed vegetation (!) and fixed 'other GHG's' makes the model it depicts rather theoretical.
This was projected on ECMWF yesterday for next Thursday. A strong, Greenland-based circulation forcing air of Atlantic origin deep into the Arctic. When it pans out that way, I would not be surprised if 5 March will prove to be the day of SIE maximum this season.
BTW this doesn't seem appropriate in a thread on arctic albedo. I'll answer on hurricanes and the jet on a Forum-thread instead (if priorities allow me).
Science provides insight in climate change based on data. Projections on the future can be partially made on this insight. Partially, because we are witnesses of a global experiment that hasn’t happened before. At least, not to our knowledge. Part of the alarming interpretations are severe anomalies. They spread progressively over a larger surface of the globe. They tend to coincide more often. They get more amplitude. These anomalies bring an urgent aspect to the known discomfort of climate change. The known discomfort is what can be expected from a relatively long, smooth rise in temperature and ocean acidification. Humanity and part of the biosphere could, maybe, adapt to this rise in a manageable way. That adaptation is bound to be much more difficult when this smooth rise is accompanied by accumulating disruptive anomalies. That is part of why the alarmed shout out ‘don’t take the risk…act now’. John, you’re welcome here. But there’s a lot disputable on your opinions. If you are happy with a sense of less urgency, thats OK with me. On hurricanes you’re generalizing on supposed interrelations. On Francis’ work you’re, oppositely, specifying and diluting the case. I invite you to figure out why a lot of other blog members do take all the signs very serious. Or am I interpreting your posts wrong?