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Stiftsche uiterwaard, Varik, Gelderland, The Netherlands
High School for gardening and landscaping, public and private designer and constructor
Interests: Geography, history, arts, philosophy, nature (especially birdwatching)
Recent Activity
There it is... as expected.... Jisao PDO index has updated for March: 2014** 0.30 0.38 0.97 Source:
Toggle Commented Apr 11, 2014 on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Nine months ago Rob Painting posted on Skeptical Science about ocean heat coming back to haunt us. He couldn’t have foreseen the timing, which seems to be right now. But after about 15 years in a dominant negative mode, PDO did change face. Soon the March index will show whether the trend parallels the one from the beginning of 1997. The re-emergence of El Nino will reveal consequences of fifteen years of inaction on mitigation, a period by some ludicrously seen as a ‘stop’ of global warming. As Painting made clear in his SkS post, during the recent -PDO years, the ocean has been storing the ‘unbalanced’ heat in its deeper layers. Since the last moderate ENSO-event ’09-’10 the troposphere has progressively become disturbed. This coincides with strengthened forcing through greenhouse gases and gradual cease of the ‘rubber-band effect’ that lags/delays the climatic response. The diminishing temperature difference between the Poles and the Tropics could be traced in height gain on the 500hPa level over the Arctic. This not only had an effect, as described by FI Dr. Francis, on the behaviour of the Polar Jet stream. Other influences could be identified FI in the constant SSW attacks on the Polar Vortex past winter. ‘Loaded', slow moving Rossby waves through the mid troposphere, a West Pacific warm pool spawning monster cyclones like Haiyan. All these signs preluded the powerful Kelvin Wave now propagating through the Pacific. The coupled ocean-atmosphere system is out of balance and leads to more weather anomalies. That will also mark the ENSO-event that is now in progress. As I supposed last year on the character of the ’13 sea ice melt season: ‘action could well shift to the mid-latitudes’. Now it gets to the Tropics. What do I expect? A fascinating, though frightening series of events related to El Nino, an extended Arctic melt season, normal in the sense that it might not lead to a new minimum in SIE/SIA and volume this year. Above all, a year that may violently surpass the ‘weird’ weather years experienced since 2010. With consequences that may present ’15 as a new record setting melt year for the Arctic sea ice and the Greenland Icesheet. I find not much solace in climate predictions based on historical data and known processes. The 'old' rules are progressively becoming irrelevant. The comfortable discussions on climate sensitivity will be challenged by reality. Paintings’ stored heat is coming to haunt us, sooner and stronger than may have been foreseen.
Toggle Commented Apr 10, 2014 on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Well Jim, that pic shows that, if AWI would fly the area with their 'e-bird' again, it would reveal almost the same map as in March '12. Not surprising, the temp record on Ostrov Kotelnyj and in Tiksi also hint on less 'winterpower'. While all winter was a tad less cold than last year, the 'heatwave' during March was remarkable. Even noticeable on remote Kotelnyj.
Toggle Commented Apr 8, 2014 on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
George, FOOW, what you wrote 15:31 made perfect sense to me. Remember the AWI-map on ice thickness in the Laptev March 2012? It would be nice to have a corresponding recent map. But this situation was a result of winter ’11-’12, which produced a mean temp anomaly of just under +3 dC in that region. Last year the anomaly stuck around zero over there. But this winter, it is close to ’11-’12 again, just about +2 dC. If my musings on ‘winterpower’ have any relevance at all, it should be no wonder to see a rapid breakdown in the Laptev. Oh, the red was >+50cm thickness.
Toggle Commented Apr 8, 2014 on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Saw that too Crandles. The trendline just dipped under '12 and '13 and now bends down to join '11. It's going to be very interesting. Hope Neven gets a new post out on this and the max!
Toggle Commented Apr 7, 2014 on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
'It was weather...' yes it was Chris. just like last summer. As both undulations cancel each other out, climate remains right on track... Still, it tells nothing for the next minimum. Maybe an initiating El Nino season might protect the ice by cloudiness next summer. But keep an eye on Siberia. The cold is retreating fast, might see rapid snow cover loss over there in spring.
Toggle Commented Mar 7, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hans, Chris, This line of thinking should maybe better be put on an appropriate Forum-thread.But, maybe in line with Chris' posts, it often occurs to me that we're not the only aware minds here. While the public part of government and the media seem almost asleep, it is very likely there's a 'hidden agenda' for what's inevitable.
Quod erad demonstrandum... it's always easy to say afterwards. I humbly submit I was very surprised last August. But this PIOMAS report is right what was to be expected. Wellcome next melt season. The 'field of opportunity' lies wide open again for more exciting and depressing sea ice lurking!
Toggle Commented Mar 7, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Arctic forest... interesting read, Jai. I remembered having seen pictures of the 'wandering pole' projected on the globe in my youth. that is, I have a hunch that this forest might not have experienced the winter darkness as it is now on Axel Heiberg. Due to axis shift/plate tectonics. Can't find much more on the web than that 'relatively' the Pole could have been situated more in the region around Wrangel then. Which could place that forest on 2300 km from the Pole compared to 1100 km nowadays. I'll keep it in mind... Not much relevance for our human experiment with climate though.
Indeed, Jai, That figure only specifies the role of CO2 in case of an instant doubling. Fixed ice sheets, fixed vegetation (!) and fixed 'other GHG's' makes the model it depicts rather theoretical.
This was projected on ECMWF yesterday for next Thursday. A strong, Greenland-based circulation forcing air of Atlantic origin deep into the Arctic. When it pans out that way, I would not be surprised if 5 March will prove to be the day of SIE maximum this season.
BTW this doesn't seem appropriate in a thread on arctic albedo. I'll answer on hurricanes and the jet on a Forum-thread instead (if priorities allow me).
Science provides insight in climate change based on data. Projections on the future can be partially made on this insight. Partially, because we are witnesses of a global experiment that hasn’t happened before. At least, not to our knowledge. Part of the alarming interpretations are severe anomalies. They spread progressively over a larger surface of the globe. They tend to coincide more often. They get more amplitude. These anomalies bring an urgent aspect to the known discomfort of climate change. The known discomfort is what can be expected from a relatively long, smooth rise in temperature and ocean acidification. Humanity and part of the biosphere could, maybe, adapt to this rise in a manageable way. That adaptation is bound to be much more difficult when this smooth rise is accompanied by accumulating disruptive anomalies. That is part of why the alarmed shout out ‘don’t take the risk…act now’. John, you’re welcome here. But there’s a lot disputable on your opinions. If you are happy with a sense of less urgency, thats OK with me. On hurricanes you’re generalizing on supposed interrelations. On Francis’ work you’re, oppositely, specifying and diluting the case. I invite you to figure out why a lot of other blog members do take all the signs very serious. Or am I interpreting your posts wrong?
Morning John, Have you been going over 'any data' or just those for the CONUS? I don't see how anything definitive can be said on Francis' work based on just the CONUS...
"Just trying to get a handle on the dynamics of the system" ... Ha David, an important part of humanity already has a formidable handle on the ice, as a matter of speaking...
On the pattern change I described a week ago… First, I Ballantinegray1 asked if I had specific info on the state of the PDO, because the agencies do not reflect a coming change. He’s right, I was musing on the atmospherical pattern changes and could better have mentioned PNA. That teleconnection has mostly been in negative mode. Meaning weakening of the Asian/Pacific Jet stream and blocking. I suggested a pattern change a week ago based on the SSW event. It did pan out in the Arctic, as there’s a large scale split of the mid-tropospheric ‘cold poles’ and a deep incursion of relatively warm air into the central Arctic. It seemed to have an effect over California. But it takes more time for Eastern NA and the British Isles. Still, it looks like there will be some relief next week. ECMWF suggests the split poles rejoining over the central Arctic after 20 Feb. And the ridge over the NEastern Pacific resettling. So it all seems to reflect short term noise. Even the temporary, but very unusual stall in sea ice extent and area. Although mostly a peripheral matter, it is interesting to see how this noise impacts the ice FI N of Svalbard, part of the crucial CAB ice pack in total darkness. The losses and deficits on the Bering side are significant, but provide little basis for any prognosis on next melt season. Nevertheless, through the last few years the rest of winter until maximum extent usually produced 350K more extent. It would really take a hard cold snap in the Arctic to reach 14MK in that light. On PDO…as I Ballantinegray1 mentioned it, I mixed it with PNA. So I had a better look. Which is not as easy as it seems. PDO is, as the agencies report, in ‘negative’ mode. The ‘warm’ mode, very counter-intuitive… Which means, coastal waters in Alaska/Canada are somewhat cooler than normal. But the poignant warm pool in the central NE Pacific doesn’t look like the ‘classic’ negative mode. Yesterday BornfromtheVoid reported PDO going positive in Jan. LBNL, ‘winter power’ 1 Oct-14 Feb over the Arctic Basin is now virtually on par with ’12-’13. Only the S part of the Kara Sea has consistently had lower temps, with a >-1 dC anomaly in the Pechora Sea (part of Barentsz close to mainland NE European Russia).
Toggle Commented Feb 17, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
CPC stratospheric data now hint at the beginning of a strong SSW event, originating from Eastern Asia. Recent 500Mb Geo suggest this event is coinciding with the strong ridging into the Arctic over the far eastern Kolyma region of Siberia. This could all reflect a strong pattern change. California is finally getting rain. And during the last 36 hours ECMWF has remodelled its predictions for the NE Atlantic too. From now on, the final stage of ’23-’14 NH winter is getting very interesting. Will a strong SSW finally blow the stratospheric polar vortex? Will this interfere with the troposphere and reverse the jet-flow on 500Mb? It might produce a final cold snap in Eurasia. And on the teleconnections; now that the PDO is changing, will we soon see the first initiation of an El Nino-season?
Hi John, As a MOF there were: The long lasting high triggered the cracking event in the Beaufort Sea. It was related to the strong SSW early Jan. While the last year event was mostly a planetary wave-1 event with almost complete annihilation of the Polar Vortex, this time the high looks like a side-effect of persistent wave-2 ridge intrusion, deforming but not destroying the Polar Vortex. Based on the differences, I suggest there will not be a cold flash around the Arctic following the collapse of the high and restauration of the Vortex. The most poignant thing going on now is the funneling of low level cold from Siberia into the CAA. Temporarily depressing 80dN temps on DMI. And yes, Neven, The one you plugged was a looker too. That one coincided with a rare March SSW event. It does indicate the difference between persistent patterns then and now...
Waiting for the februari PIOMAS update. It is clear, see Wipneus’ work on the Forum, that the Schweiger-Zhang team is very busy. Since the remarkable 2013 Arctic summer there’s a lot of speculation on the near future of the climatologic trend in the Arctic. That goes for the more detailed aspect of Arctic sea ice, too. Meanwhile, new work by Cowtan and Way on the global temperature trend makes clear that there’s nothing uncanny in the direction of the basic trend. Thanks to Tamino, here’s a graph with the lastest December 2013 values included: Based on this work, it seems all doubts and diversions can be dismissed. The climate models are generally quite accurate. The actual measured data are in line. The climate sensitivity for forcing is probably close to the worst/highest scenario in the IPCC projections. The role of clouds might remain elusive. There may be issues like the effects of aerosols and recent ‘sulphur’-emissions from intensive coal-burning in China and India. There’s also a scientific side to understand what ‘kriging’ is all about. Because it is the method used by Cowtan and Way to get to their results. No doubt that the fake-sceptics will eventually crusade that. But essentially, there’s not much suggesting a temporary weather-induced extent, area or volume growth might be relevant for the global trajectory of the anthropogenic forcing.
Toggle Commented Feb 7, 2014 on PIOMAS January 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi all, Good article on 2013 temps on RC by Stefan Rahmstorf. Includes this graph showing the HadCrut4-data with an adjusted range. That is done through the work of Cowtan&Way et al. They worked out a methodology to include the parts of the globe that have no official weather stations. The method puts mean global 2013 temp above 1998. That surely gives another perspective on all talk of ‘stop-pause-hiatus’.
Toggle Commented Jan 28, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Good to hear from you, Christoffer! Interesting winter out there, but let's not forget last January also showed remarkable warm anomalies around Svalbard and over the Central Arctic Basin. The NCEP/NCAR graphs still show 'winterpower' to be stronger than last year (1 Oct-24 Jan). So there's not much indicating a bad start for the next melt season. BTW the origin of the present 'warming' seems different. Last January the SSW played a big role. This time the intrusions of troughs/ridges in the lower-middle troposphere.
Toggle Commented Jan 27, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Interesting, Ghoti, thanks. What about this link:
Toggle Commented Jan 20, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Morning, JDallen, With a mid-tropospheric vortex split in two, centered on Western Labrador and the lower Lena Basin in Siberia, a configuration like this is to be expected (rather chaotic…). This sort of mirrors the anomaly for all winter up to now: The most interesting feature all winter is the formidable bulge in the troposphere over the NE Pacific. It seems to contribute in the development of Planetary Wave-1 events into the lower stratosphere on a regular basis, displacing the stratospheric Polar Vortex and its accompaniyng polar night jet on 70Mb. This vortex is still strong, but displaced and ECMWF models suggest it will be prone to a Wave-2 intrusion soon which could lead to another split, or even largely broken vortex in February. That would really get things mixed up. Even though I think the sort of pattern isn’t that unique in itself, the teleconnective aspects and persistence keep suggesting that this is all part of a general re-arrangement of the tropospheric cells… It’s an interesting ride, for sure. Even exciting, if there wouldn’t be these bad consequences luring. As for Dan's post, I would be very surprised if Fukushima had anything to do with this. To me, it's GHG's and their impact is expanding fast. The warm pools in the upper ocean in the NE and S Pacific could be signs of changes in the thermohaline circulation. IMHO the old patterns tell us less and less of what to expect.
Toggle Commented Jan 20, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Wayne, You expressed much of what I'm expecting... for what's about to unfold, there's little comfort in looking back.
Toggle Commented Jan 14, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
SH, being a landscape designer, I’ve noticed some pretty memorable shifts in the niches of local climate during my lifetime too. Summarizing, I’d say the growing season has been steadily lengthening over here. This made possible to introduce plants that, backed by early twentieth century documents and books, were restricted to SW England , Normandy and Brittany. On the topography; it would be ridiculous if I claimed to have noticed the influence of the earth’s geomorphology on climate. It was part of basic school training in geography. The illuminating side of having joined Neven’s sea ice band of bloggers is that I’ve acquired a much more general insight on the integrated pattern of all seemingly individual features. As I’ve been collecting 10-day means for the wave-patterns between Oct and Mar ’12-’13, I’ve noticed the preferred spatial distribution of ridges west of the Rocky Mountains and the British Isles, and troughs over the American Plains and Mongolia. No doubt these are ‘climate means’ related to topography. But it is the amplitude, both in space and time, and their strength in view of their energy-transfer that should be main focus of our concern. The bite in this is that ‘normal features’ get rough, last different and are relocated on a synoptic scale. There are multiple examples, FI the ones you gave for tornadoes in the US. In the generally very ‘even’ climatology of The Netherlands, it is harder to point out these changes. If pushed, I’d suggest summer thunderstorms and their rain events. The intensity and spread over the year are both rising (the frequency to a lesser extent). I’m very worried that these changes will progressively strain all kinds of economical activities up to the point they will become unsustainable.
Toggle Commented Jan 11, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice