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Interests: Electrified vehicles, REs
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I still believe that batteries energy density will go from 1X (in or pre-2010) to 5X by 2030 or shortly thereafter. The above storage technology will probably be fined tuned to produce 3X to 4X batteries by 2025 or so. That will be when all weather extended range (affordable) BEVs may be produced. Meanwhile, one may buy an affordable short range BEV (as a second car) or invest over $100K for a TESLA S100D or S120D.
Tomorrow's robots could be much lighter, quicker, faster, smarter, more polite and more accurate than most of our obese human drivers, including bus drivers. Near future development in AI, light composite materials and advanced 3D printing will allow the creation of smart robots of all sizes. The 40-hour work week will have to be reduced drastically.
What would be the average energy density after 1000 and 2000 cycles?
It depends where you start. 1X batteries are limited to 100 - 125 Wh/Kg. (2010) 2X batteries are limited to 200 - 250 Wh/Kg. (2015) 3X batteries would be limited to 300 - 375 Wh/Kg (2020) 4X batteries would be limited to 400 - 500 Wh/Kg (2025) 5X batteries would be limited to 500 - 635 Wh/Kg (2030) Note: Dates in (....) are rounded up but close enough.
Practical energy density is very variable and would depend on voltage used and number of full operation cycles. Remains to be demonstrated.
Individual, group, national and global efficiency is a moving target and very difficult to establish with enough accuracy. Can overweight people (over 220 lbs) eating up to 10,000 KCal/day be as efficient as smaller lean people surviving on less than 2000 KCal/day? Automation can lead to much better overall efficiency. Tomorrow's robots using energy from REs will make the difference.
The energy density is still too low. Something like 600+ Wh/Kg is required for all weather extended range BEVs.
I have (by exception) to agree with (gorr) that serious buyers should wait for new 3X batteries to acquire lower cost extended range (all weather) BEVs?
Lad is probably correct. Momentum may push CO2 reduction further in USA and positive actions will also reduce CO2 emissions in China
Very smart. Hope that it will work well with Carbon fiber and nano-cellulose composites?
Not every car maker has the resources required to fully develop and install workable safe automatic drive systems in their vehicles. There will be enough room in the ADV industry for at least a dozen specialized groups to develop and put together the sensors, hardware and software required. Competition will be fierce and may the best unit/system win. Intel can contribute and so could Microsoft, Apple, Google, Facebook, Samsung, LG, Sony, Toyota, Nissan/Renault, Honda/GM/Ford etc.
Alternative facts: TESLA and LUCID and many other new comers may be the first to go under? Hyundai, Nissan/Renault, Toyota/Mitsubishi, Honda, BMW, Mercedes, Peugeot, GM, Ford, Fiat/Chrysler and many other majors (Chinese?) may be around for decades. More JVs will take place by 2025/2030 or so.
Good move Alston. This could be the ideal solution to replace existing polluting diesel passenger trains in USA and Canada (and many other countries) without having to electrify the rail network. More powerful units could also replace existing diesel freight locomotives? What are we waiting for?
Yes JMartin, this is the right way to go. Hope that many more cities will follow.
The natural versus man made causes argument will persist for decades?
Good news for main H2 stations and for California. If and when the other 49 States board the H2 train, USA may soon have well over 2000 H2 stations.
Hope that the prototypes will prove to be as good if not better that steel units. The next step may be with nanocellulose re-enforced fiber material for increased strength and less weight. With more light weight materials, the average car weight may drop from 3000+ lbs to less than 2000 lbs
Yes, small distributed to large centralized facilities could produce all the H2 required for future FCEV fleet? Would it be cheaper than with up to date electrolyzers and low cost surplus REs?
Nanocellulose re-enforced material may be used for superior future much stronger H2 tank. It would be much stronger and lighter than steel and carbon fiber.
An interesting vehicle, specially if equipped with an adequate size FC and battery pack to extend range and operate 16 hours/day.
One more heavy weight in the ADV game will help to develop a secure and safe complexe project. Lawyers will have a field day, to sue such heavy weight for every crash, but a $15+ B investment will put up a very strong defence. Interesting times ahead?
Will this new material be adequate for compressed H2 at 10,000 psi? If so, it may help to promote the use of FCEVs?
H2 high pressure tanks technology will evolve. Stronger Nanocellulose composites tanks will weight less and resist the high pressure for many more years. Up to 800 Km between refills may be more than enough. Pressure could be reduced by 25% or so by reducing range proportionally.
Short range BEVs are not practical for people without home garage charging facilities and/or in our very cold snowy area. We (in our old area) need BEVs with 500+ Km range to make it safely to the next quick charge facilities in all kind of weather or FCEVs with enough H2 stations. This is not a joke but reality. BEVs with next generation 2X to 3X batteries will have that capacity? FCEVs have it now?