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hit and run
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I'll probably resume sometime tomorrow night.
Toggle Commented 1 hour ago on Is There Anything They Can't Do? at JustOneMinute
I gave up drinking.
Toggle Commented 1 hour ago on Is There Anything They Can't Do? at JustOneMinute
NK: Those are the numbers Beyond the numbers The "underperformed polls" claim has left the building. Player 2 "Poll analysis" has entered the game.
Toggle Commented 1 hour ago on Is There Anything They Can't Do? at JustOneMinute
jimmyk: it's not unreasonable to call vast majorities of undecideds going to Obama "leaving votes on the table." But there was the bit before the "and" about underperforming polls. That's why my "er, some example" came right after the part showing that R&R didn't underperform the polls predicting what % of the vote they would get. R&R got almost exactly what the polls said they would (short by 1.8K votes out of 730K). I am happy to grant that R&R "left votes on the table" of the undecided and underpeformed NK's expectation of where the undecided would break. Or put another way, Obama overperformed the polls.
Toggle Commented 1 hour ago on Is There Anything They Can't Do? at JustOneMinute
NK: IA-- is an example of where R&R underperformed polls and left votes on the table. I'm sorry, what? The RCP final average of polls for IA showed R&R with 46.3%. The actual results? R&R got 46.2% Er, some example. Now, the margin was above the RCP average, but that's because the final average for Obama was 48.7 vs actual of 52.0 There were a couple of polls (Gravis and NBC) that still showed ~6% undecided in the last week of the race - those undecided broke to Obama.
Toggle Commented 2 hours ago on Is There Anything They Can't Do? at JustOneMinute
CH: In fairness (Poppin's exact term) Heh. For the record, Poppin' got the polling wrong in his post about the debate. He said that Hagan had led in every poll except one in the last month. That is wrong: one was tied (the one Poppin' was referring to) and one showed Tillis +1. Poppin' missed the Tillis +1. In fairness, it is the second most-recent SurveyUSA poll, so it's like totally rocket surgery to have seen it by scrolling down the RCP page rather than looking at the top section.
Toggle Commented 2 hours ago on Is There Anything They Can't Do? at JustOneMinute
anonamom: my local NPR station said Hagan didn't show last night because she had agreed to three debates, not four. Apparently there were three the last time she ran. To be fair (just to make CH's teeth itch), Hagan agreed to the 3 debates - and which debates - over the summer. She never agreed to this one, wasn't confirmed, wasn't expected, no one should be surprised she wasn't there. It's not like she backed out at the last minute. To be unfair shrewd, the LIVs will never, ever know that and Tillis and supporters can and should hammer the empty chair every which way.
Toggle Commented 2 hours ago on Is There Anything They Can't Do? at JustOneMinute
NK: why did Hagan not show last night? Heck if I know - last night's debate was on Time Warner's "News 14" channel. Who do you think I am, this guy?
Toggle Commented 3 hours ago on Is There Anything They Can't Do? at JustOneMinute
Rick: I'm putting zero weight on early voting in Colorado. Heh. I'd already started writing this up, but I'm using your sentence to say....Let's say the same about NC! Good news! Absentee ballots accepted to date in in NC are R's 41 and D's 37. Woo....what? In 2010 through 10/21, It was R's 47 and D's 34. It's not DOOM! but there's nothing to convince me that Tillis is by any means over the hump. I'm still in the barely below 50% likelihood of Tillis winning camp, fwiw. I will make one BOLD PREDICTION (™, TM): I will have very little left of my fingernails around midnight on 11/4.
Toggle Commented 4 hours ago on Is There Anything They Can't Do? at JustOneMinute
Cloward-Pivenizing the NC Elections Judicial Watch- According to a letter from a lawyer for the State of North Carolina to the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP), a speaker at a recent NAACP conference in North Carolina urged audience members to mislead the NAACP’s own members into believing they do not need to register to vote in advance, or that they do not need to vote at their assigned polling place. Why? The letter alleges: To create confusion and animosity during the upcoming mid-term elections in North Carolina, and to use the evidence of that confusion in the ongoing litigation between Eric Holder’s Justice Department and North Carolina and to show that North Carolina’s election integrity laws are discriminatory.
Toggle Commented 6 hours ago on Is There Anything They Can't Do? at JustOneMinute
The right to bear harms.
Toggle Commented 7 hours ago on Is There Anything They Can't Do? at JustOneMinute
SurveyUSA replaces a Tillis +1 poll (10/9-12) with a Hagan +3 (10/16-20). Swings the RCP average to Hagan +2. It was Hagan +0.4 yesterday. A four point swing in that short of time suggests one poll or the other might well be an outlier. Don't think there has been anything on the ground here that could have moved the race in Hagan's favor over that time.
Toggle Commented 8 hours ago on Time For The Oscars?!? at JustOneMinute
Janet: Unfortunate indeed. WaPo "reporters" were some of the worst. 1x2x6
Toggle Commented 8 hours ago on Time For The Oscars?!? at JustOneMinute
HAPPY BIRTHDAY NARCISO!!!
Toggle Commented 11 hours ago on Time For The Oscars?!? at JustOneMinute
anonamom: The president is resolute?? The only association you can make between Obama and resolute is that's where he puts his feet when he's in the Oval Office.
Toggle Commented yesterday on Time For The Oscars?!? at JustOneMinute
Holder
Toggle Commented yesterday on Time For The Oscars?!? at JustOneMinute
Grouch.
Toggle Commented yesterday on Time For The Oscars?!? at JustOneMinute
Iggy: He's hurt that people are distancing themselves from him so he rationalizes it and also notes most are in states he didn't win so that when they lose he will not be to blame. Note his wording... “These are folks who are strong allies and supporters of me, and I tell them, I said, ‘You know what, you do what you need to do to win. The distancing was all his idea. He's giving them permission to do it, and in fact, he probably has to twist their arms to do it, because they love him so much. Mary Landrieu: Mr. President, it's probably best if you don't come and campaign with me. My constituents are pretty pissed. Obama Aide: Mr. President, it's probably best if you avoid the most contested races this year. Obama: Ok, everyone, I've thought it over and I've come up with a strategy. Let me be clear. I'm a better election advisor than my election advisors and I'm a better Louisiana Senate candidate than what's her name, and I've come to realize something. As much as this may hurt you, I am going to avoid your race this year. I know, I know, please don't beg, it will just be awkward for everyone, but it's for the best. What's Her Name: ... Obama Aide: ... Obama: Good. It's agreed, then. Once again I have the best idea.
Oh, and great job rse!
Excellent write-up matt...thx
CH: master-debater-wendy-davis-attacks-abbott-with-dildos/ Good lord, the original pic I used to for the shoe really really really is ripe to be p-shopped with a . . . well, use your imagination: I'm not doing it. I'm way too classy.
So, I don't know, had some time to kill. Wendy and her iconic pink shoes. Or shoe, I guess. I don't think she'll be able to fit both of them in there. But not for lack of trying. "Nom nom, my opponent's a cripple, nom nom, his wife is white hispanic, nom nom, hands off my unregulated baby killing factories, nom nom nom"
Maybe we should all send the Obamas some bills to their Chicago address?
Heh. Memories...... *************************************** On Mon, Aug 24, 2009 at 6:01 PM, [Soylent] wrote: I’ll be in Fayetteville this week. How about dinner on Thursday or lunch on Friday? *************************************** From: [hit and run] Date: Tue, 25 Aug 2009 08:47:19 -0400 To: [Soylent] Awesome. Right now, Friday lunch looks best for me. It's the kids' first week of school, and that way I can put them to bed thur night, see them off to school fri morning and then head to F-it-ville. I'm hoping you know the town well enough to know where to go to eat. We've passed through it a number of times, but we've never stopped there. I have noticed a lot of stip clubs, though, maybe a buffet would be nice. Kidding. If you need anything, you can reach me at xxx-xxx-xxxx. [mrs hit and run] and I are sharing that cell phone right now, so if a sexy young thing answers, don't worry, that's not me. Looking forward to it. *************************************** On Tue, Aug 25, 2009 at 11:02 AM, [Soylent] wrote: Good copy. I've got a suitable place in mind. Less flesh, but better beer. I'll shoot you a map tonight. *************************************** [hit and run] 8/25/09 to [Soylent] I'm confirmed for Fri lunch. I eagerly await being shot (directions). *************************************** On Wed, Aug 26, 2009 at 7:58 PM, [Soylent] wrote: www.huskehardware.com/ Is 1130 a good time to meet? *************************************** [hit and run] 8/26/09 to [Soylent] Yup. Works perfectly. Huske (it's just missing an 'r') looks fantastic. *************************************** [hit and run] 8/28/09 to [Soylent] Thanks for lunch today. I had a great time and am glad we finally got together. I've started teasing JOM with the news, but little details. I like it when JOM women beg. A lot. Take care, see you soon