This is hit and run's Typepad Profile.
Join Typepad and start following hit and run's activity
Join Now!
Already a member? Sign In
hit and run
Recent Activity
Ahhhhhhh. mrs hit and run, the kids and her parents have headed off to do a "GPS challenge" where they give you a sheet with coordinates and clues and you have to find the coordinates and solve the clues. Everyone is aware the Bald Head is golf carts only, right? Such a charm for this island - it's why we love it so much. That leaves me back here at the house with my gumbo and my beer. I need some gumbo and beer time by myself to relax. I need to relax. A few storms on my horizon, but for now . . . I am going to exhibit what is at once my best and worst psychological attribute - an unsurpassed capacity to compartmentalize. Nothing and no one else can come between my beer and my gumbo now. I'm relaxed.
Toggle Commented 8 minutes ago on More Scary Marijuana Science at JustOneMinute
Rick: Locks on three seats with five other Fascist incumbents under 44% in the polling averages (Udall, Hagan, Begich, Pryor and Landrieu) makes eight a pretty safe bet. Hagan is at 44.9 at RCP. Still below the traditional DOOM! for incumbents number of 46, but...
Toggle Commented 1 hour ago on More Scary Marijuana Science at JustOneMinute
Always nervous using someone else's pot. (if you haven't been paying attention, you might think that was on topic)
Toggle Commented 3 hours ago on More Scary Marijuana Science at JustOneMinute
Time to start working on the gumbo.
Toggle Commented 5 hours ago on More Scary Marijuana Science at JustOneMinute
When I "joke" about JamesD. being "paranoid" about how detailed and open the voting data is . . . let me just note that I am joking nervously, because I do share his concern for what one can do with the data. You know, like: Jonathan Coulton ‏@jonathancoulton I think the Democrats just threatened me: 6:57 PM - 30 Oct 2014 (I hyperlinked the photo, so you can even left-click to see the whole thing rather than right-click. Or you can right-click. It's a free country, do what you want)
Toggle Commented 5 hours ago on More Scary Marijuana Science at JustOneMinute
NC early vote update... DEM 67,667 | 46.8% REP 47,300 | 32.7% UNA 29,479 | 20.4 LIB 256 | 0.2% Same ol', same ol' - another 20K added to the DEM lead, total 140K vote lead DEM vs REP. Overall early vote is at 91% of 2010 totals. DEMs are at 94%, REPs are at 80%, UNA is at 108%. The vote today will put the total vote and the DEM vote past their 2010 numbers. Saturday's vote should push the REPs past their 2010 total. DEMs will enter election day with a lead over REPs that will be most likely just shy of double their lead in 2010. In 2010 Burr (R) won by nearly 12 points, so a direct comparison on vote totals should be viewed with how much room Tillis has to work with vs that blowout. But he's behind at this point no doubt and needs a big turnout on election day to try and pull this out. Not to be too chauviracist, but white dudes like me have to hit the polling stations hard on Tuesday. The black early vote has remained in excess of 24% of the total this week - the female vote has been over 55%.
Toggle Commented 6 hours ago on More Scary Marijuana Science at JustOneMinute
FTSAH: I will be reaching Climax here in NC around 7 pm Sunday.
Toggle Commented 8 hours ago on More Scary Marijuana Science at JustOneMinute
...of mosquito populations.
Toggle Commented 16 hours ago on More Scary Marijuana Science at JustOneMinute
Stephanie: Nah. We put pool shock in the statue pool. Pool shock causes shrinkage.
Toggle Commented 16 hours ago on More Scary Marijuana Science at JustOneMinute
Interesting. On ESPN right now is a Koch Industries ad. Not political - just Koch saying they make all kinds of stuff and employ all kinds of people.
Toggle Commented 16 hours ago on More Scary Marijuana Science at JustOneMinute
Stephanie: it's what you put up with when you have a creek in the yard. I thought it was the statue with a soggy biscuit.
Toggle Commented 16 hours ago on More Scary Marijuana Science at JustOneMinute
Heh - did anyone link that Onion piece where Cosmo was sending a bus full of models to NC State to entice students to vote by driving them from campus to polls through the overt use of sexuality? Wait. What? That's not The Onion. That's reality.
Toggle Commented 17 hours ago on More Scary Marijuana Science at JustOneMinute
Miss Marple: Is it that they think they are special and can command the virus to stand down? The man who was absolutely certain that generations from the point he defeated Hillary in the 2008 Dem primary we would be able to look back and tell our children that that was the moment that the rise of the oceans began slow and the planet began to heal surely thinks commanding a virus to stand down is child's play.
Toggle Commented 18 hours ago on More Scary Marijuana Science at JustOneMinute
I may not have gone to law school, but I also remember learning about "fighting words".
Toggle Commented 18 hours ago on Normally I Would Bet On Youth... at JustOneMinute
Miss Marple: Behind me at the auction this evening were a retired nurse and a couple who are dealers Your marijuana dealers? You're two threads behind for the that thread.
Toggle Commented 18 hours ago on None Dare Call It Race-Baiting at JustOneMinute
JiB: Did you exhale? Not for a good 45 seconds.
Toggle Commented yesterday on More Scary Marijuana Science at JustOneMinute
Whoa, dude. Today marks the 25th anniversary of the last time I smoked marijuana.
Toggle Commented yesterday on More Scary Marijuana Science at JustOneMinute
BoE: I was told there would be no arguing during my Birthday Bacchanalia... No you weren't! Prove it! Names and dates and citations and links or it didn't happen! You haven't answered in the thirty seconds since I started this comment (which is thirty seconds before hitting post, but still!) So I am right and you're wrong! Busted!
Toggle Commented yesterday on THEIR Ability To Cope?!? at JustOneMinute
Police responded to Darien Social at approximately 11:15 p.m. and found a male victim who had blood on his face Buddy you're a young man, hard man Shoutin' in the street gonna take on the world some day You got blood on yo' face You big disgrace Wavin' your banner all over the place
Oh, no, I am NOT going to cross post my NC stuff to this thread. Not in a million years.
Toggle Commented yesterday on None Dare Call It Race-Baiting at JustOneMinute
I don't relish being a One Trick Pony. I don't. But probably until Thursday next week I will be. If I am successful, I'll get a few people complaining about the volume of my posts. That's just how I be rollin' these days. Porch's quote from the Red Racing Horses comment: 2nd alot of those democrats and indies who are early voters are old and white. Not a great category for Ds in NC. I don't find the qualifer "alot" (sic) all that helpful. "Alot" compared to what? Compared to young and non-white? But *of course*!!!! That's demographics. "Alot" compared to past elections? DEM/"Indies" vote by race... 2010 White - 64.4% Black - 32.3% All Other - 3.4% 2014 White - 60.9% Black - 35.4% All Other - 3.8% 2014 early voting is *NOT* "whiter" than 2010. As to age... RickB: The numbers on the 60+ demographic for the EV are really very good. The breakdown of early votes by age category...(i did my own categories without looking at what is used elsewhere, so in some cases I'm a year off on the splits, like 61+ vs 60+) 2010 18-30 - 5.4% 31-44 - 10.8% 45-60 - 30.7% 61+ - 53.2% The 61+ crowd was 47.0% DEM and 35.9% REP 2014 18-30 - 5.2% 31-44 - 10.4% 45-60 - 29.0% 61+ - 55.4% The 61+ crowd is 48.2% DEM and 32.9% REP However "older" 2014 is than 2010, it is also DEM'er and less REP'er. What we don't know (because I'm not about to go analyze 2010 vs 2014 this way) is how many of the increase of 61+ in this election voted as 57+ year olds in 2010. In other words, the exact same voters, just a few more years on them. The increase may simply represent the increase in age, not a shift in voter demographics. Note also that the youth vote is down, but only as measured in the tenths of a percent. Addendum: my poor computer is having increasing troubles running my spreadsheets for both elections using pivot tables. One of us is going down . . . either I chunk the laptop across the room, or the infernal machine grinds me to a meltdown into a fetal position out of aggravation. I think I'm stronger than it . . . at this point. It may be catching up.
Toggle Commented yesterday on THEIR Ability To Cope?!? at JustOneMinute
Gmax: Take it up with the AP among many others Gad, this is so frustrating. I'm taking it up with you here, because I don't regularly cite the AP and could care less what they say. If you care about the accuracy, you can check with the numbers yourself. Or you can evaluate two sources and go with whatever the rosier picture being painted is. More... here is a cut & paste from a NC paper from an AP article just 10 minutes ago Here's some more cut and past from the article: State Board of Elections data show more than 690,000 people had cast ballots through Wednesday at in-person voting centers So we're now excluding absentee ballots? Yes, my numbers will not match any that are excluding absentee ballots. From your AP quote: Democrats have cast 49 percent of all early in-person votes this fall, compared to 47 percent in all of early voting in 2010. Republicans comprise 31 percent of the vote and unaffiliated voters are at 20 percent. Nothing in that quote indicates the level of REP votes in 2010, though the 47% for DEMs is consistent with the NC state board of education vote totals - if you only include in person early voting and exclude absentee votes. The lead, according to the state board of elections data of only in person early votes was 47.0 to 35.9 or 11.1 points. But don't take my word for it -- trust the AP . . . and your "sources" who claimed the Tuesday early vote amounted to the REPs gaining ground.
Toggle Commented yesterday on THEIR Ability To Cope?!? at JustOneMinute
Gmax: The fact that the margin of early voting in 2010 was 16.1% + Democrats and Burr won in a laugh, and early voting is down to 16.5% + at the moment is quite encouraging to me. Err... Here are the numbers as pulled from the NC state board of elections: 2010 DEM 46.4% REP 36.5% Margin 9.9% 2014 DEM 48.1% REP 31.6% Margin 16.5%
Toggle Commented yesterday on THEIR Ability To Cope?!? at JustOneMinute
glasater: So when Hit posts statistics re the D ballots coming in It means those voters receive a ballot where they can only vote for a D or is the R on that ballot also. These are actual votes coming in for actual candidates using actual ballots. Since last Thursday, a large majority of the totals are early, in person votes cast at polling sites, the rest are absentee ballots returned by mail. In all cases, it is the full ballot. The state board of elections produces reports that include data down to the individual voter. The reports show votes by party registration only - not for whom the individual voted (the sanctity of the secret ballot). Here's a sample of the data available, using the headers in the .csv file I pull down: voter_last_name voter_first_name race gender age voter_street_address voter_city voter_state voter_zip voter_party_code ballot_req_type ballot_rtn_dt ballot_rtn_status site_name
Toggle Commented yesterday on THEIR Ability To Cope?!? at JustOneMinute
NC early vote update...yesterday's vote totals: DEM 63,410 | 47.3% REP 43,222 | 32.3% UNA 27,173 | 20.3% LIB 201 | 0.1% DEMs added 20K the the lead over REPs, the total lead is now 120,072. I'm not resigned to a Hagan win - I think it will still come down to the wire. I still think it's uphill for Tillis, but very doable. It all comes down to ground game, ground game, ground game. Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.
Toggle Commented yesterday on THEIR Ability To Cope?!? at JustOneMinute