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Hi Eric, Neven wrote about his own feelings on this in a post featured in the "Best of Blog" box, above and to the right, called "To Melt or Not To Melt." I think that the fast melt off Alaska is a delayed symptom of the heatwave in Alaska in January and February, when temps were actually above freezing for some time. Looking through the previous years plots, it seems to me that in Chukchi, ESS and Laptev, the closest parrallel to this year is neitherr 2012, nor 2013, but 2007. 2014 differs from 2007, in that the Atlantic side looks much weaker than then, similar to all recent years. FWIW, I think that we are going to see a spectacular melt all along Eurasia, with the Northern Sea Route open for a record long period; and the possibility of clear blue water at the Pole. OTOH, it has been abnormally cold for recent years everywhere in the quarter from the Pole to due South and due West. I think that the Hudson Bay will clear late; the melt in the Baffin Bay will be slack; and the NW Passage through the Canadian Archipelago may not clear at all. And if none of the above happens, I shan't be terribly amazed, and I'll blame the weather. Sea ice is, I find, a very disobedient substance, which very rarely sees fit to do as it's told.
Toggle Commented May 22, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 1: melt pond May at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Neven, Climate Central/SciAm has an article on precisely this subject: Robert scribbler is predicting a heatwave... The new ice surface temp map from DMI seems to me to be very relevant to meltponds... ...but this seems to be having technical diffiulties.
Toggle Commented May 19, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 1: melt pond May at Arctic Sea Ice
Eh? Reportingclimatescience reports on a paper that shows that RISING tropical Pacific SSTs are exacerbating Greenland melt; and finds an expert from AWI who explains that it's due to FALLING tropical Pacific SSTs. Is the tropical Pacific warming or cooling? (In anticipation of the Californian drought having an adverse effect on the global price of wine, I have taken early precautionary action, and am quite unable to answer this question for myself. Any elucidation would be gratefully received;), tomorrow.
Toggle Commented May 8, 2014 on PIOMAS May 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Trick question! As the North Pole is in all 24 timezones simultaneously, it is impossible to say it was put down at 1800. In the adjacent timezone, it would be simultaneously 1900, and so on round the compass. It is worth noting that nobody claims to have set foot on the North Pole until 1907... I know of three bloggers who occasionally write about the history of the Arctic; 1. Patrick LOckerby is excellent... 2. 'climatereason' or 'tony b' has read an awful lot of archived material, which he then desperately scours for the extremely scant and unconvincing evidence that the recent melt has happened before. You'd have to search WUWT. 3. The third is insane. Neven, your 'certificate' whatever that is, from Typepad, ran from 1/4/2012 to 5/4/2014.
Toggle Commented Apr 7, 2014 on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
The new resource... apparently has maps for SAT, sea ice, permafrost extent, vegetation, snowcover, and more. Thanks to the scientific community for this speedy response to the request for more data. That's probably enough for one day;)
Toggle Commented Apr 3, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
NSIDC source for the above has a lot more, including an update on multiyear ice, mention of SEARCH and news of a new resource...
Toggle Commented Apr 3, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
NSIDC has called the(5th lowest ever) max...
Toggle Commented Apr 3, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
They may of course be looking in the wrong ocean. The following graduate paper from 2010 found, astoundingly, that from 1979-2010 the best predictor of ice extent in Beaufort in October is the SST in the Carribean in May... ...and ruled out an awful lot of the usual suspects, from ENSO to SIE in the same area earlier the same year. And now, in a most exciting development, the sainted David Sanger has only gone and asked her about this... More to follow, I hope, from people like Stone or Dr Tom Murphree, who appear to know what they're talking about, which excludes me, obvs. Ideally, I'd love to see them do a SEARCH prediction based on the Carribean data in May 2014.
Toggle Commented Apr 2, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
Well done Neven, and thanks to Larry for suggesting that other participants might like to write guestposts here. Warmly seconded. If you are party to a group e-mail of participants, Neven, you might like to write to confirm this invitation?
Toggle Commented Apr 1, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
ASIB guest blogger Larry Hamilton speaking live now. What time are you on, Neven? If poss, can you leave a message here just before you start?
Toggle Commented Apr 1, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
Ha Ha, very funny. ;)
Toggle Commented Apr 1, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
IPCC 2 trailer...
Toggle Commented Mar 28, 2014 on Mission possible at Arctic Sea Ice
I think that there is another factor to consider, besides the temp increase: lack of pressure increase due to the lag in sea level rise. Past temp increases were slower, so they will have been accompanied by a corresponding sea level rise. If temperature rises say, 2C over 1,000 years, this might cause, say, a sea level rise of 10metres over those 1,000 years. Under current AGW, temps are skyrocketing, but sea level rise will take much longer. So under palaeo conditions, you get a 2C increase, but at 40m depth in ESAS, its now 50m deep. Pressure increases from 5 bar to 6 bar. This 20% increase in pressure would have helped with clathrate stability. In the current rapid change scenario, it won't help. There is no way that sealevel is going to rise sufficiently to mitigate rising temperatures.
Toggle Commented Mar 27, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
I saw tripling/quadrupling over the last decade, judging by your link above.
Toggle Commented Mar 19, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
I see that MODIS is now showing the ice edge North of Svarlsbard, and (just) the Lincoln Sea end of the Nares Strait...
Toggle Commented Mar 11, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi John, There is a discussion of that paper over on the ASIF, here...,611.0.html
Toggle Commented Mar 10, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Climate average on the DMI graph shows temps of approx -30C for approx 5 months North of 80N... Even in ths warm winter, the peak reading is around -15C. That's still sea-ice-forming cold. We are well, well short of a perennially ice free Arctic. If SSTs get that much hotter, you should be more worried about the Caribbean coming to a brisk simmer.
Toggle Commented Mar 9, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Via the sidebar, slate has some cool graphics... Some thoughts... 1. Increased open water in the Arctic Autumn is increasing atmospheric humidity; linked to increased Autumn NH snowfall; linked to increased Spring and Summer river flow? 2. The amount of water transported by ocean currents dwarfs river flow, see... IIRC, the flow through the Fram Strait alone is estimated at around 6 Sv = 6x all total global riverflow. OTOH, this Atlantic water is saline, enters the Arctic at depth, and stays submerged. Heated river water s doubly buoyant, due to both heat and salinity. 3. Is river water anything to do with this strange arrival of open water in ESAS? What is that?
Completely irrelevent, untrue, gratuitous, and possibly libelous ad-hominem (mods,please delete)... ...apart from the nice bits. ;)
Toggle Commented Mar 6, 2014 on Another ice extreme at Arctic Sea Ice
"First, second, whatever, it disproves AGW. ;-)" It's CUSAFF (Catastrophic US Anthropogenic F Freezing) Another nail prised from the coffin of the lamented Dr Inferno...
Toggle Commented Mar 6, 2014 on Another ice extreme at Arctic Sea Ice
"...the Great Lakes freezing over as they haven't done since records began." Quoi? Currently at 88% ice cover, and short of the 1994 figure of 90.7%, according to te abc story linked above.
Toggle Commented Mar 6, 2014 on Another ice extreme at Arctic Sea Ice
Er, maybe here...
Toggle Commented Feb 25, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanx Tenney, Noted intrigung reference by Francis @ 24.30 and following to new research, as yet unpublshed, showing post-2007 persistent high pressure ridges over openwater areas of the Arctic. Also interested that, in discussing Cohen, Francis notes that the Eurasian side has melted much more than the NA side. Kinda sobleedingobvious that it's somethng I've tended to overlook/take for granted.
Fantastic, Neven. The huge Summer and Spring negative anomalies do seem to overwhelm the slight growth of Fall and Winter; but Summer has fallen off the longterm graphs page. Thanks again.