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Banning diesel and petrol cars by 2040 is a joke. They need to take action now. In particular, they need to identify and remove the worst offenders, rather than force new technologies on people. Identifying the worst offenders might not be easy but could be tightened up year by year. You might have to give grants to enable traders to replace their vehicles, if they were forced off the roads while quite new. They could get rid of pure diesels and petrols in 10 years if they made it clear that hybrids are allowed, and if they specified what they meant by a hybrid (say > 1KwH of storage). Rules in rural areas could be looser (initially).
@harvey, @ECI definitely, all car types should have HEPA filters. Perhaps you need a catalyst for air coming into the cabin. Perhaps you need a new location for the cabin air input port.
I am sure there are loads of people in other countries who would be very happy to work in the oil industry. + How many do you need ? If only 2% consider it a good career, is that enough ? + surely loads of US grads have huge debts who could consider a career in the oil industry as a way to pay it off. You can write poetry in your free time.
One + a Ford Focus or a Golf. = a PHEV.
The Baojun looks pretty good for a city car. If you had one of these and access to another (ICE ?) car for longer trips, you would be in good shape. Be very afraid, Smart! (at the price)
Is it an EV? It is certainly a hybrid. If you were to say that increased electrification has raised the bar, I would agree wholeheartedly. The problem that I see is complexity and cost. This is fine in a Merc S class, but will it scale back to a Ford Focus - I hope so. IMO, some kind of hybrid is the way forward as then you can size the battery to the median drive distance, rather than some unattainable maximum (say 12KwH instead of 60+), which ends up looking like a PHEV. The only problem then is cost and gasoline going "stale".
@Gorr, well you have it there. People buy and drive cars that are bigger and faster than they need. Then, they drive them faster as well. The simplest solution would be to implement national speed limits using average speed cameras (and point speed cameras). Once people started to get points on their licenses, they would son slow down.
It strikes me that the Saudi's are trying to talk down production in the hope of increasing the price of oil in the run up to the partial float of Saudi Aramco.
You could use platooning to reduce fuel consumption, OR, you could use it to go faster for the same fuel consumption! That would be something - Imagine a block of 4 or 5 lorries barreling down the road at 80 mph. What could possibly go wrong ? OK, they won't do that, but I'll bet they get > 10% fuel savings.
It strikes me that an electric school bus should not be like a diesel powered one, because the diesel one can use a lot of energy (as diesel is energy rich). Thus, they could be very heavy and have lousy aerodynamics and still be fit for purpose. Any EV bus should be as light and aerodynamic as possible, within cost and safety constraints. Obviously, it could be as yellow as you like. Are there special rules as to what a US school bus has to be or do?
They'll be a good buy secondhand in about 3 years. The mild hybrid looks like a good option: hopefully they'll roll it down the range at minimal cost over the coming years.
There is quite a trend against diesels in urban areas in Europe. They would want to get them very clean before people get over this. They still make sense in less densely populated areas. + if they are hybridised (of whatever flavour), it would be a further improvement. Especially if they could run mostly electric in stop-go traffic.
@Ep, it may be that we do not have to completely eliminate the use of gasoline, just greatly reduce it (across the board). PHEVs are one way of doing this. Range extender EVs are another, car swapping is yet another. Hybrids are a gateway drug to PHEVs and mild hybrids a further gateway. The only problem I see is that as you reduce the use of gasoline, the price falls, making it harder to replace.
Most of these sold will be mild hybrids, which use 10% less gasoline than a pure petrol car. So it is not such a big deal from a fuel consumption point of view. From a marketing POV it is great, and from a company direction POV, it is great, but I don't see it saving that much fuel for say 5 years (when PHEVs really kick in).
I think every AV will have to have a 3d sensor, and Lidar would be the sensor of choice as it gives a nice 3 point cloud image, potentially much sharper than radar and with fewer problems than stereo. However, my understanding is that Lidar does not like rain, so we may end up with radar as well as a fail safe. Thus, you could end up with: colour video, Lidar, Radar and ultrasonics (for short range work, parking etc.). That will be quite a sensor fusion effort - and to think that humans can do it all with stereo colour vision!
The problem in Europe is that too much of the price is based on taxation which is based on CO2 alone - this tends to favour diesel which is seen as low in CO2. What they need is a "Euromix" of pollutants, including CO2, but also NOX, HC, particulates. Keep it simple, keep it measurable and verifiable. Then find some way of combining different pollutants. Lets say you pick 3 pollutants. Get the average values for cars in the last 2 years. Give C02 50% of the total and the rest to NOX and particulates (or ozone, or whatever). Then you have a mix that won't favour diesel like the CO2 only one did. Then levy your taxes. You can normalize it so that the amount collected stays the same overall. Diesel will start to fade out unless the manufacturers get a handle on it.
I can see a ban on older diesels in cities alright, and a weeding out of the worst offenders. Both of these would certainly be good. I am not so sure about the latest diesels, especially once they have been thoroughly tested. However, I do not see many diesels being replaced by EVs, more likely some flavour of gasoline or NG hybrid. It may well come from the car companies ( as many people have said), it will become cheaper to produce hybrids than diesels that meet Euro VII (or whatever) and this will drive future urban vehicle direction. I can see EVs taking over where the miles / day can be predicted, else hybrids.
Indeed. The trick is to remove the worst vehicles while replacing them with better ones. There is no point in replacing 5 year old buses with E-buses if you leave 15 year old buses on the roads.
It isa good idea - fix the worst ones, even if they do not end up perfect, a major improvement should help a lot. You almost need a task force that can go round marking vehicles for either removal or renewal to get the very worst ones off the roads. The problem here is that it gives enormous power to the people implementing it, and also puts them in harm's way if they have to deal with violent people who fear losing their livelihood. But there is no point in putting 1000 electric buses on the streets if you leave another 1000 heavily polluting bin trucks (or whatever) in place.
While a 2Kw generator is interesting for a digital fire control system, these are not very common, so a 20 - 30 Kw one would be of more use as a range extender for EVs. It would be especially useful if it could use a low evaporation fuel (like diesel?)
Good point Harvey, but at what cost ? How much do large sheets of GG cost ?
It has often struck me that it must be difficult to keep solar panels clean in dusty or sandy areas, like Saudi Arabia, especially if they are water constrained. As the paper says, the more you clean them, the more you risk damaging them, so it is really not a simple task. Perhaps a special hoover could be constructed, and / or an ultrasonic cleaner. It is a big problem (loss of solar power) and one that demands a serious response. You might have to design solar panels that are supposed to be removed once a year and cleaner or resurfaced (or whatever). (Which won't be cheap).
Things can switch pretty quickly if there is a good enough push. In Ireland and the UK, we switched to diesel (70% new cars) because it was cheaper, give better MPG and Co2 and higher resale values. Obviously, we got it wrong wrt "local" pollution, but it shows what a push can do. Switching to electric is not as simple as switching to diesel due to the range and time of charging, but it could happen. There is nothing inherently good about EVs, they just have lower CO2 and pollution, and if you could achieve that in some other way, it would be just as good. PHEV or some hybrid mix might be nearly as good. The problem is to get people to switch when oil is so cheap. if you look at Europe, where there is a lot of tax, very few people use hybrids. Hopefully the demise of diesel will cure this. Also, even if Norway eschews HC fuels, they will just sell their oil at a slightly lower price to someone else who will burn it.
What strikes me about things like this is that they are much wider than a motorbike and so cannot bunch up in traffic the way scooters can. Thus, while they may use less fuel, they use the same road space as a car. Also, the IPO specs tend to be a lot better than the real ones.