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Jim Hunt
South West England
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Neil - Actually it would seem to have been "pushed away" by the recent easterly winds? https://go.nasa.gov/2uc8Xdd Meanwhile O-Buoy 14 has captured the onset of surface melt in the heart of the Northwest Passage: Amongst other things! http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2017-images/#OBuoy14
Toggle Commented Jun 27, 2017 on Melting momentum: May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
P.S. See also this post by Neven on the Arctic sea ice forum: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1834.msg118028.html#msg118028 A comparison between the ECMWF deterministic and ensemble forecasts of the potential cyclone.
Toggle Commented Jun 23, 2017 on Melting momentum: May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
The mid-month regional volume breakdown: There's less volume than in 2012 across the Pacific side of the Arctic in the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas. On the Atlantic side there's also more volume in the Greenland Sea and Baffin Bay. Amongst other things we'll have to wait and see when (or even if?) all that extra ice on the Atlantic periphery melts away to nothing.
Toggle Commented Jun 23, 2017 on PIOMAS June 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
One intriguing recent development is the expansion of this year's "Laptev bite" towards 80N: At 4 days out this is by no means a certainty yet, but ECMWF is currently forecasting that the low pressure will develop into a sub 970 hPa cyclone: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/06/facts-about-the-arctic-in-june-2017/#Jun-23 I'm curious about what effect that will have, if it comes to pass!
Toggle Commented Jun 23, 2017 on Melting momentum: May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks to the sterling work of Wipneus here’s a regional breakdown of PIOMAS Arctic Sea Ice volume for the month of May: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/06/facts-about-the-arctic-in-june-2017/#Jun-16 Click through for a bigger version.
Toggle Commented Jun 17, 2017 on PIOMAS June 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Robert - Surely whether a particular area of sea ice "will melt out in any case" has no bearing on its albedo today? If that area of ice is currently covered with snow instead of melt ponds it's reflecting most of the short wave radiation it receives, rather than absorbing most of it. For those that follow such things, JAXA/IJIS/ADS Arctic sea ice extent for 2012 just dropped below 2017: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/06/facts-about-the-arctic-in-june-2017/#Jun-13
Toggle Commented Jun 13, 2017 on Melting momentum: May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Rob - It may not have seemed terribly relevant before this year, but have you considered adding "remaining volume" or some such to your regression formula?
Toggle Commented Jun 11, 2017 on PIOMAS June 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hans - I don't think this is a very exact science, but see for example this graph from Wipneus: https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/grf/jaxa-amsr2-melt-extent-ratioD.png Based on JAXA's "melt ice concentration" data: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#AMSR2Thick
Toggle Commented Jun 8, 2017 on PIOMAS June 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Werther - A recent image of the "stretch of mobile, broken ice with lots of open water" north west of Greenland: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/06/facts-about-the-arctic-in-june-2017/ For comparison purposes here is the same area on the same date in 2012:
Toggle Commented Jun 7, 2017 on PIOMAS June 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Wade - See Suomi NPP: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/NPP/mission_overview/index.html and JPSS https://jointmission.gsfc.nasa.gov/jpss.html Note that the GOES series of satellites use a geostationary orbit at an altitude of ~35,800 km whereas Suomi NPP uses a sun synchronous orbit at an altitude of ~834 km. The two are not readily interchangeable!
Toggle Commented May 27, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
The open water in the Nares Strait is about to be filled with the remains of the collapsing sea ice in the Lincoln Sea: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/05/facts-about-the-arctic-in-may-2017/#May-12
Toggle Commented May 13, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Wayne - Bear in mind that air temperature increased from ~-30 to ~-16 over the course of April 11th. My take is that thermistors 1-3 (in columns 2-4) are in air, and 4-5 are in snow.
Toggle Commented Apr 14, 2017 on PIOMAS April 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Another ice mass balance buoy has been installed in the Arctic, this time near the North Pole. Here is what buoy 2017B revealed shortly after deployment: Wayne in particular will be interested to note that the dotted lines at the left show maximum and minimum air temperature over the preceding 24 hour period. The thermistor 1 reading is now in column 2. At around -16 degrees Celsius things have warmed up considerably near the Pole recently.
Toggle Commented Apr 14, 2017 on PIOMAS April 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
In view of the current PIOMAS/CryoSat-2 debate it seems pertinent to point out that there are people out on the sea ice as we speak measuring the depth of snow cover near the North Pole: "The 2 Degrees North Pole Expedition" This from Bernice Notenboom: The sleds weigh over 80 kilos and new pains and aches show unexpectedly in places you don’t want them, like my back. On the odd break, I would get the notebook out, jot down the GPS position while Ann pokes into the snow and yells the various snow depths to me. The rest of the day we are doing cold management: toes we don’t feel anymore and need nurturing or placing your thumb between the fingers to warm them up inside your mitt, and worse letting your arm hang so the blood can race back to the extremities.
Toggle Commented Apr 9, 2017 on PIOMAS April 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks for the suggestion Wayne. When I find the time to "tweak my scripts" I'll try and add an extra indication of air temperature. I'm not sure that a disembodied "dot" will do the trick though. As more profiles are added things can get pretty cluttered. Maybe a dashed line to the air temp "dot"?
Toggle Commented Apr 6, 2017 on Lowest maximum on record (again) at Arctic Sea Ice
Wayne - In the latest news from the Beaufort Sea, the thickness of the sea ice underneath ice mass balance buoy 2017A has just crept over 1 meter: Current Buoy Data (04/03/2017): Pos: 72.90 N, 147.10 W Air Temp: -25.88 C Air Pres: 1021.52 mb Snow depth : 9 cm Ice thickness : 102 cm Since Deployment (03/09/2017) Snow surface accumulation: 9 cm Ice bottom growth : 17 cm I'll have to tweak my scripts a bit. At 04:00 on April 3rd when the red temperature profile was recorded the buoy reckoned "air temperature" was -20 Celsius.
Toggle Commented Apr 4, 2017 on Lowest maximum on record (again) at Arctic Sea Ice
I'll stick with feeding "climate science deniers" to the wolves, if it's all the same to you: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/the-house-science-climate-model-show-trial/#Apr-1 The denialosphere is of course now spinning like crazy attempting to pin something, anything, on Michael Mann. Today is All Fools' Day, but this is no joke. What on Earth are Rep. Higgins and ex. Prof. Curry on about with all this “RICO” business?
Toggle Commented Apr 1, 2017 on Praying polar bear at Arctic Sea Ice
Wayne - In the latest "Shock News!" from the calving face the "fake skeptics" at the Fail on Sunday have been forced to "correct" their recent "correction" to the most recent cherry sauce soaked porky pie to fall off the end of their production line: "Stale News? Mail on Sunday Corrects Yet Another David Rose “Porky Pie”"
Toggle Commented Mar 30, 2017 on Lowest maximum on record (again) at Arctic Sea Ice
Bill/Wayne - There was a great example of the "contact sport" of ClimateBall™ played yesterday at the behest of the United States’ House Committee on Science, Space and Technology: "The House Science Climate Model Show Trial" There's over 2 hours of riveting video for the cognoscenti to analyse. Michael Mann seemed to be working from "Snow White's" playbook at times, and devoted several paragraphs of his written testimony to criticising the David and Judy Show in no uncertain terms. Lamar Smith didn't appear to be listening though. Lots of bluster but sadly no clamming up! He did however demote the Fail on Sunday to the substitute's bench, replacing them on the field with the Wall Street Journal.
Toggle Commented Mar 30, 2017 on Lowest maximum on record (again) at Arctic Sea Ice
Bill - It seems the ex Admiral rather "liked" my alter ego's recent "tweet" of one of his punch lines: https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/846988338645143553 "If you wait for 100% certainty on the battlefield you'll probably be dead"
Toggle Commented Mar 29, 2017 on Lowest maximum on record (again) at Arctic Sea Ice
Fred seems to have done the trick! Or maybe it was the crossed fingers?
Toggle Commented Mar 29, 2017 on Lowest maximum on record (again) at Arctic Sea Ice
Fingers crossed here in Soggy South West England Neven! Meanwhile, in the absence of the ASIF here is the news that I wished to report: "Should Climate Scientists Boycott Congressional Hearings?" According to retired Rear Admiral David Titley they should: It seems David wasn't too impressed by the hearing he got from Senator Ted Cruz concerning "Data or Dogma"!
Toggle Commented Mar 29, 2017 on Lowest maximum on record (again) at Arctic Sea Ice
For the attention of the powers that be. The ASIF currently tells me: "Table './arcticse2/smf_messages' is marked as crashed and last (automatic?) repair failed"
Toggle Commented Mar 29, 2017 on Lowest maximum on record (again) at Arctic Sea Ice
Wayne - Perhaps we could package it into 140 character chunks and "Tweet" it to @POTUS? http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1858.msg106856.html#msg106856
Toggle Commented Mar 23, 2017 on Lowest maximum on record (again) at Arctic Sea Ice
Wayne - My very good friend Alice F. has somehow managed to dig up some more dirt on David Rose: https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/844339885959983104 Do you suppose his toes are starting to feel a trifle toasty yet?
Toggle Commented Mar 22, 2017 on Lowest maximum on record (again) at Arctic Sea Ice