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Jim Hunt
South West England
Recent Activity
Hans - See also today's Met Office press release: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2017/2016-record-breaking-year-for-global-temperature The global temperature series shows that 2016 was 0.77±0.1 °C above the long-term (1961-1990) average, nominally a record since at least 1850. When compared with the 1850 to 1900 baseline – which is indicative of pre-industrial temperatures – the 2016 average global temperature anomaly was around 1.1 °C (see below). For comparison, 2015 was 0.76±0.1 °C above the long-term (1961-1990) average. The NASA/NOAA slides have a section on the Arctic: https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20170118/NOAA-NASA_Global_Analysis-2016-FINAL.pdf
Al - Here's how a couple of similar storms affected the Arctic: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/11/nasa-researches-storm-frank-in-the-arctic/ This one has spent less time over the North Atlantic than those two however, but looks set to generate quite a bit of Fram Strait export over the next few days. Whilst I don't see the strong winds doing the area numbers any good it's conceivable that extent will increase on the Atlantic side of the Arctic. See for example the latest ACNFS forecast: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrf/nowcast/icespddrf2017011518_2017012200_046_arcticicespddrf.001.gif
Wayne - The "surface" reading depends upon the design of the buoy in question. Perhaps in this case it's now somewhere near the snow/ice interface, whilst originally it was in air just above the ice?
Merry Christmas to one and all, or at least as merry a Xmas as possible in all the circumstances. Santa's grotto is just around the corner from us here in Great White Con Ivory Towers. One of his little helpers just popped in to ask me to apologise to anybody who received their presents late. Santa was too busy mopping up his basement to set off on his rounds on schedule. Here's the festive temperature record from buoy 300234064010010, a little way south of the North Pole: Click the image to see the uncropped version, which reveals air temperature reaching zero degrees Celsius on December 22nd. A bit further south buoy 300234064015020 rose to +0.8. The BBC reports that an expert in such matters: Was confident that [Santa's] sled would cope with the conditions. Santa is most likely overdressed though. Maybe in the future we'll see him in a light jacket or plastic mac.
Au contraire Kris: More anomalous heat entering the #Arctic caused #SeaIce area to fall yesterday. In the middle of winter! https://t.co/oUkR5cLhl4 #Wipneus pic.twitter.com/mpfNbmPskz— Snow White (@GreatWhiteCon) December 22, 2016
Somewhat hampered by Typepad's image width constraint, here Wipneus' latest graphic graphic: and here's the latest Arctic temperature anomaly map: According to Wipneus: "Near century drops today: Extent: -81.1k, Area: -98.5k" Need I say more?
A.N.Other - Try taking a look at the temperature anomaly map: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#CCITemp Can you "read" the isobars?
Toggle Commented Dec 21, 2016 on PIOMAS December 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
This article has now been referenced in the first paragraph of a Guardian editorial: The Guardian view on climate change action: don’t delay. Arctic temperatures have been 20C above normal. The ice cap is shrinking. And Trump and Putin may see it as an advantage. Mapping the changes to the extent of sea ice over the last 40 years confirms that: on a graph, the lines are clustered together like threads in a hank of silk, warming and cooling in line with each other – until this year. This year’s line drops down like a thin thread dangling into the void. Mr Trump’s choice of Rex Tillerson, former head of Exxon Mobil and cheerleader for Mr Putin, as secretary of state is deeply worrying. Two friendly world leaders facing one another across a vanishing Arctic ice cap. The thawing of the cold war is no longer a metaphor.
Oustanding stuff Wipneus! Or should that be astounding? Snow White has endeavoured to spread the word: #Wipneus explains his astonishing #Arctic + #Antarctic #SeaIce graphs. Now with extent & volume too: https://t.co/O3IfUgOacd #ASIF pic.twitter.com/UA01GmY8iS— Snow White (@GreatWhiteCon) December 20, 2016
Jai - I too heard that podcast, and I also saw the way Vid was misreprenting Neven in public. I directed his attention here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defamation#Norway What action would you recommend be taken against someone who ignores repeated warnings, whether you subscribe to the same beliefs or not?
Toggle Commented Dec 20, 2016 on PIOMAS December 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Susan - The pleasure is all mine, and thanks for your kind words. Is "Going out to bat" the metaphor you're searching for? Wayne - Where are Young Werther and old A-Team when you need them? Graphic graphic to follow if I ever have a spare 5 minutes!
Neil - I tried to reduce Wipneus' anomaly graph to fit within the confines of Typepad, but it became illegible. I trust Wipneus numbers more than anything I see printed in the Guardian, and he does indeed reveal an "anomalous spike" to over 8 sigma. Remember this is global area, not NSIDC Arctic extent.
Sam - The "grey band" is on the individual Arctic/Antarctic graphs. You can argue until the cows come home about how legitimate it is to lump the two together. For more on the current state of the "Arctic art", hot off the presses from AGU, see also: Arctic Sea Ice News from AGU Navegante may wish to peruse that too? No politics, until you get to the comments at least!
Navegante - I'm sure we all miss Neven's stuff, but he has a PassivHaus to finish building amongst many other things to get on with. Walking the Walk! I feel sure that more "techie" stuff will arrive here in due course. I also feel sure that in the "current climate" the political dimension should not be ignored. The "denialism" ain't "petty" no more. Allegedly it will be in The White House in the not too distant future.
Hans - I can't claim to have personally verified the calculations, but "seven sigma" has been bandied about. Including in The Grauniad. For those who aren't ancient Anglo-Saxons like me, once upon a time in a land far far away The Guardian was famous for its misprints.
Vaughn - My pleasure, if you see what I mean. It's not pleasant to report that sort of news. More from Jerry Brown at AGU: If Trump turns off the satellites, California will launch its own damn satellite. We're going to collect that data.
Regular readers of the Arctic Sea Ice Blog will be aware that Neven has, not entirely successfully, been "on sabbatical" for a while. During that time assorted inaccuracies about Neven himself and about the state of sea ice in the Arctic have been propagating through both "social" and "mainstream" media.... Continue reading
Posted Dec 18, 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
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As per my Xmas card above, climate scientists donned their white coats and protested outside the Fall AGU conference last week. I've just published a video of the demonstration and documented the current parlous state of the Cryosphere: Paraphrasing the AGU protest only slightly: Sea ice has no agenda. It just melts: https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/810075453981605888 Out of the labs & into the streets? Any chance of a "retweet" or three?
Toggle Commented Dec 17, 2016 on PIOMAS December 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Dumb and dumberer Wayne! My teachable moment at "Steve Goddard's" has fallen on deaf ears: https://lmgtfy.com/?q=sudden+stratospheric+warming Wow. Jimbo can type a google search MUCH progress from the brainless twerp !! WACCy!!
Toggle Commented Dec 16, 2016 on PIOMAS December 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Some "Sabbatical" Neven! I think it "turned out pretty well" too, certainly in the sense that the alleged "insecurity" was inaudible. Not to mention top billing above Sir David Attenborough!
Toggle Commented Dec 16, 2016 on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
John B - The Arctic Sea Ice Forum would seem to fit your bill perfectly? Perhaps start here: Walking the walk
Toggle Commented Dec 15, 2016 on PIOMAS December 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Susan - Hear, hear! John B - Ayn Rand allegedly didn't much care for "Libertarians": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Objectivism_and_libertarianism#Rand.27s_view_of_libertarians RWL - Agreed. Getting back to the science of melting sea ice, if I may? The first few papers from the N-ICE2015 expedition are available (paywalled) at: http://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/hub/issue/10.1002/(ISSN)2169-9291.NICE1/ A freely available introduction can be found at: Arctic Research on Thin Ice: Consequences of Arctic Sea Ice Loss Much of our current knowledge of Arctic sea ice stems from the former old-ice regime, and we need new knowledge to understand the system in its current thinner state and to improve our capacity to predict its future.
Toggle Commented Dec 15, 2016 on PIOMAS December 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
NOAA say "A transition to ENSO-neutral is favored during January-March 2017." http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Only a minor disagreement amongst the experts?
Toggle Commented Dec 14, 2016 on PIOMAS December 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
A.N.Other - You wanna be careful what you read. Atlas Shrugged is the bible of many a "skeptical" libertarian.
Toggle Commented Dec 14, 2016 on PIOMAS December 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Wayne - You wanna argue with the BoM? http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/12/post-truth-global-and-arctic-temperatures/#comment-216633
Toggle Commented Dec 14, 2016 on PIOMAS December 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice