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Jim Hunt
South West England
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Robert - For plenty of historical data on "major wave impacts... at this point in the season" see: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/tag/waves/ They should certainly be considered as "another major factor", IMHO of course!
The last extent reading via ADS was on August 23rd: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent However the University of Hamburg are still happily producing AMSR2 concentration data, from which Wipneus calculates both area and extent, including a regional breakdown: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#UH-AMSR2
Wayne - The numbers are all from the same satellite/algo. This is area, but I wouldn't describe it as "neck and neck with 2012" at the moment: The gap is currently wider for extent.
Environment Canada had the cyclone's MSLP at 967 hPa earlier this morning: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/08/the-great-arctic-cyclone-of-2016/#Aug-27 Hamburg Uni high res AMSR2 area is already below the 2015 minimum. If the anticipated compaction materialises perhaps extent will catch up quickly?
Tony - I discussed MASIE versus the NSIDC's Sea Ice Index with NASA's Walt Meier not so long ago: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/02/dmi-masie-and-the-sea-ice-index-an-interview-with-walt-meier/#Walt In brief: MASIE repackages data from the NIC, and incorporates an ice edge hand drawn by analysts working with whatever satellite data they have available at the time. It is an “operational” product designed to produce a “best effort” ice edge each day, based on whatever data may be available at the time. On the other hand the SII was designed to use a consistent methodology over a long period of time using a single type of sensor. 100% automatically processed passive microwave data is the “gold standard” when it comes to determining sea ice trends.
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 3 at Arctic Sea Ice
The 2016 (Great?) Arctic Cyclone is down to 970 hPa once again this morning (UTC), and there's also a 1030 hPa high over Greenland: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/08/the-great-arctic-cyclone-of-2016/#Aug-23 Meanwhile the University of Hamburg are busy processing their high resolution AMSR2 data back to summer 2012. Here's 400 pixels worth: That’s sea ice area for the Arctic Basin, comprising the CAB plus Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian and Laptev Seas. Where do you suppose the red line is heading next?
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 3 at Arctic Sea Ice
Phase 3 of GAC 2016 is now down to 971 hPa: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/08/the-great-arctic-cyclone-of-2016/#Aug-22 There's also high pressure over Greenland, although 400 pixels aren't enough to show it! Note the closely packed isobars at the bottom right of the image however.
Toggle Commented 6 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Wayne - I reckon the 72 hour ECMWF forecast is starting to look plausible: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/08/the-great-arctic-cyclone-of-2016/#Aug-20 Here's what today's 00Z shows for Tuesday: Another battering for the MIZ on the Siberian side of the Arctic?
Toggle Commented Aug 20, 2016 on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Bill - I'm paraphrasing The Who. A musical interlude? https://youtu.be/ZgubG-MOPT4 Meanwhile the "new cyclone" was down to 976 hPa by lunchtime UTC. Here's the 12Z ECMWF forecast for lunchtime tomorrow: Wayne - Do you mean the ECMWF maps? I use MeteoCiel as a one stop shop for "weather" forecasts. Alternatively, the AMSR2 data comes courtesy of Wipneus.
Toggle Commented Aug 19, 2016 on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Meet the new cyclone. same as the old cyclone? Today's 00Z ECMWF forecast for tomorrow morning: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/08/the-great-arctic-cyclone-of-2016/#Aug-19 The high resolution AMSR2 Arctic sea ice area has reduced by another 133.5 thousand square kilometers since yesterday. A similar drop tomorrow will take us below the 2015 minimum.
Toggle Commented Aug 19, 2016 on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim - If you are interested in Northabout's voyage you can see moving pictures of her negotiating some of the sea ice that has crossed her path at: "Northabout Meets Some Serious Sea Ice"
Toggle Commented Aug 16, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 5: big cyclone at Arctic Sea Ice
Wayne - Both the Louis S. St-Laurent and Oden seem to be near the Pole at the moment: http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=CGBN http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=SMLQ
Toggle Commented Aug 15, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 5: big cyclone at Arctic Sea Ice
Neil - GAC 2016 is now down to 974 hPa: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/08/the-great-arctic-cyclone-of-2016/#Aug-15 The resulting (modelled!) 3 meter high waves are currently directed straight at the ESS ice you refer to, so it will be "very interesting" to discover just what happens next!
Toggle Commented Aug 15, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 5: big cyclone at Arctic Sea Ice
Rob - The current WaveWatch III "surf forecast" for the East Siberian Sea: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/08/the-great-arctic-cyclone-of-2016/ 3 meter waves with a period of around 8 seconds heading in the direction of the ice edge.
Toggle Commented Aug 14, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 5: big cyclone at Arctic Sea Ice
Rob/Neven, Actually Bill and I have met physically as well as virtually. Having bumped into each other here on the Arctic Sea Ice Blog we discovered we live within cycling distance of each other. My "split personality" is a long running joke, although perhaps British humour doesn't always readily translate across the Atlantic Ocean and/or the North Sea?
Toggle Commented Aug 10, 2016 on PIOMAS August 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Tenney - They've increased security! Try this link instead: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html See also: HYCOM vs ASMR2 Imagery on the forum:
Toggle Commented Aug 8, 2016 on PIOMAS August 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Rob - For an alternative interpretation see for example the (admittedly slightly out of date) Barrow webcam:
I'm not sure this is what you're expecting to see Wayne, but here is what AMSR2 reveals this morning: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/beaufort-sea-ice-graphs/
Toggle Commented Jul 26, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 4: breaking point at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks for your kind words D - I intend to! See: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/07/northabouts-great-adventure/#Jul-25 One small point though. According to Wikipedia at least: In Internet slang, a troll is a person who sows discord on the Internet by starting arguments or upsetting people, by posting inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages. IMHO at least, my musings amongst the cryodenialistas are always on topic, not off it!
Toggle Commented Jul 25, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 4: breaking point at Arctic Sea Ice
Wayne - I did make that suggestion to the Polar Ocean Challenge team, but I don't think they were terribly keen on the idea: https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/755333142471467008
Toggle Commented Jul 24, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 4: breaking point at Arctic Sea Ice
Wayne - Northabout visited Svalbard last year, so I suspect that (s)he prefers pastures new this year. According to the "Ship's Log": We are under sail, so saving fuel, and will find a small island to shelter until we get improvements. Somewhere in the Nordenskjold Archipelago perhaps?
Toggle Commented Jul 24, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 4: breaking point at Arctic Sea Ice
O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay! The cryodenialospheric blogger formerly known as "Steve Goddard" has just published a blog post about little ol' me! "Is the Polar Ocean Challenge About to End in Disaster?" It is if you believe Tony Heller, which I humbly suggest is not a particularly wise course of action at the best of times. In his umpteenth article on Northabout’s Great Adventure over the last four days he dares to take your humble scribe’s name in vain as he loudly proclaims: “Jim Hunt Egging The Ship Of Fools On To Disaster”
Toggle Commented Jul 24, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 4: breaking point at Arctic Sea Ice
Wayne - The Good Lord recently posted an article at WUWT that did indeed say that. For good measure he added: Even if the ice disappears for a week or two so what? The same was quite possibly true in the 1920s and 1930s, which were warmer than today in the northern hemisphere, but there were no satellites to tell us about it.
Toggle Commented Jul 23, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 4: breaking point at Arctic Sea Ice
coyoteyogi - Here's chapter and verse on the creation of the cryoblogospheric "Yacht stuck in sea ice" meme: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/07/northabouts-great-adventure/ In an intriguing recent development Viscount Monckton of Brenchley claims: It’s possible, though not all that likely, that there will be no Arctic icecap for a week or two this summer:
Toggle Commented Jul 23, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 4: breaking point at Arctic Sea Ice
The latest storm bottomed out at 986 hPa: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/07/the-mid-july-surf-forecast-for-the-beaufort-sea/ Whilst it dispersed the remaining ice in the Beaufort Sea, across the Arctic as a whole sea ice area continues its decline:
Toggle Commented Jul 21, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 4: breaking point at Arctic Sea Ice