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Jim Hunt
South West England
Recent Activity
Wayne - David Rose was apparently able to predict the HadCRUT4 numbers for January 2017 before they were published by the Met Office. He possesses a most impressive "crystal ball", I'm sure you agree? Regarding the future MOSAIC expedition, don't forget that Tara did something similar not so very long ago. DAMOCLES! http://geography.exeter.ac.uk/opensource/cryosphere/documents/Trapped_in_the_ice_OER_2.pdf
Toggle Commented yesterday on PIOMAS February 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
From the darkest depths of Soggy South West England comes the latest news concerning the Trump administration's "Alternative Facts" assault on NOAA: "Climategate 2 - Episode 3 of David Rose's Epic Saga" Let’s see if we can discover if Peter Stott has any recollection of being interviewed last week by the Mail on Sunday and/or The Mail’s leading fantasy fiction writer shall we?... Do you suppose that David [Rose] & Judy [Curry] have another “whistleblower” embedded deep within the Hadley Centre?
Toggle Commented yesterday on PIOMAS February 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks for the comprehensive update Neven. Here's my somewhat more idiosyncratic take on the same story from yesterday: Facts About the Arctic in February 2017 Meanwhile yet more anomalously warm air is entering the Arctic Basin from both the Pacific and Atlantic sides. Only marginally off topic, your readers may also be interested in this morning's "Shock News!": Climategate 2 Falls at the First Hurdle? We’ll have much more to say on this controversy in the context of our “Alternative Facts” investigation in due course, but for the moment at least it looks to us as though the nth iteration of “Climategate 2” barely made it out of the starting gate. However Mr. Rose’s loyal army of “rebloggers, retweeters, plagiarisers and other assorted acolytes” and that “Republican-led House science committee” may of course have other ideas?
Toggle Commented Feb 5, 2017 on PIOMAS February 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Wipneus' gridded PIOMAS thickness is out now also. All that and much more at: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/02/facts-about-the-arctic-in-february-2017/ SSW + WACC conjectures aside, there's plenty more anomalously warm air heading for the Arctic Basin as we speak.
Toggle Commented Feb 4, 2017 on A new Arctic feedback (?) at Arctic Sea Ice
The first article that I'm aware of emerging from the "Arctic Change and Its Influence on Mid-Latitude Climate and Weather" workshop in Washington DC: https://psmag.com/in-the-shadow-of-trumps-first-week-climate-scientists-gather-in-washington-58d7034b92af Perhaps unsurprisingly there's a political angle: The new administration may reject overwhelming findings that heat-trapping greenhouse pollution is tilting Earth’s climate toward possibly catastrophic change, but that isn’t stopping the researchers at the conference from discussing the scientific reality that climate change’s most serious effects could happen much sooner than expected. Moving on to a bit of science: Observations from recent years support the idea that the melting ice is a key factor in shaping the persistent pattern of warm temperatures over the Arctic that displaces bitter cold air toward North America and especially Eurasia, says conference co-chair Judah Cohen, a climate scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Judging from the Twitter feed not everyone agrees!
Toggle Commented Feb 3, 2017 on A new Arctic feedback (?) at Arctic Sea Ice
Judah Cohen is currently busy at the "Arctic Change and Its Influence on Mid-Latitude Climate and Weather" workshop. There doesn't seem to be a live video feed unfortunately, but James Screen seems to be busy live tweeting: #Arctic17 Lots of posters from the workshop can be seen at: https://usclivar.org/meetings/2017-arctic-midlatitude-workshop-poster-gallery
Toggle Commented Feb 1, 2017 on A new Arctic feedback (?) at Arctic Sea Ice
Angela - As Navegante perhaps implies, it's much easier to display images over on the ASIF than here on Typepad, so check the "2016/2017 freezing season" thread regularly too. By way of a quick overview, following a spurt due to a cold snap on the Pacific periphery Arctic sea ice area is currently flatlining: Somewhat more unusually there's currently a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event over the high North:
Toggle Commented Feb 1, 2017 on A new Arctic feedback (?) at Arctic Sea Ice
Susan - At the risk of drifting further off topic, and despite its name, the Arctic Sea Ice Forum has numerous updates on Larsen C: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1175.0.html
Toggle Commented Jan 28, 2017 on A new Arctic feedback (?) at Arctic Sea Ice
Since you mention the ice sheet in west Antarctica, the Pine Island Glacier is calving once again: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,429.msg100742.html#msg100742
Toggle Commented Jan 27, 2017 on A new Arctic feedback (?) at Arctic Sea Ice
As we speak another very powerful winter storm is down to 953 hPa:
Toggle Commented Jan 25, 2017 on A new Arctic feedback (?) at Arctic Sea Ice
Hans - See also today's Met Office press release: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2017/2016-record-breaking-year-for-global-temperature The global temperature series shows that 2016 was 0.77±0.1 °C above the long-term (1961-1990) average, nominally a record since at least 1850. When compared with the 1850 to 1900 baseline – which is indicative of pre-industrial temperatures – the 2016 average global temperature anomaly was around 1.1 °C (see below). For comparison, 2015 was 0.76±0.1 °C above the long-term (1961-1990) average. The NASA/NOAA slides have a section on the Arctic: https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20170118/NOAA-NASA_Global_Analysis-2016-FINAL.pdf
Al - Here's how a couple of similar storms affected the Arctic: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/11/nasa-researches-storm-frank-in-the-arctic/ This one has spent less time over the North Atlantic than those two however, but looks set to generate quite a bit of Fram Strait export over the next few days. Whilst I don't see the strong winds doing the area numbers any good it's conceivable that extent will increase on the Atlantic side of the Arctic. See for example the latest ACNFS forecast: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrf/nowcast/icespddrf2017011518_2017012200_046_arcticicespddrf.001.gif
Wayne - The "surface" reading depends upon the design of the buoy in question. Perhaps in this case it's now somewhere near the snow/ice interface, whilst originally it was in air just above the ice?
Merry Christmas to one and all, or at least as merry a Xmas as possible in all the circumstances. Santa's grotto is just around the corner from us here in Great White Con Ivory Towers. One of his little helpers just popped in to ask me to apologise to anybody who received their presents late. Santa was too busy mopping up his basement to set off on his rounds on schedule. Here's the festive temperature record from buoy 300234064010010, a little way south of the North Pole: Click the image to see the uncropped version, which reveals air temperature reaching zero degrees Celsius on December 22nd. A bit further south buoy 300234064015020 rose to +0.8. The BBC reports that an expert in such matters: Was confident that [Santa's] sled would cope with the conditions. Santa is most likely overdressed though. Maybe in the future we'll see him in a light jacket or plastic mac.
Au contraire Kris: More anomalous heat entering the #Arctic caused #SeaIce area to fall yesterday. In the middle of winter! https://t.co/oUkR5cLhl4 #Wipneus pic.twitter.com/mpfNbmPskz— Snow White (@GreatWhiteCon) December 22, 2016
Somewhat hampered by Typepad's image width constraint, here Wipneus' latest graphic graphic: and here's the latest Arctic temperature anomaly map: According to Wipneus: "Near century drops today: Extent: -81.1k, Area: -98.5k" Need I say more?
A.N.Other - Try taking a look at the temperature anomaly map: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#CCITemp Can you "read" the isobars?
Toggle Commented Dec 21, 2016 on PIOMAS December 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
This article has now been referenced in the first paragraph of a Guardian editorial: The Guardian view on climate change action: don’t delay. Arctic temperatures have been 20C above normal. The ice cap is shrinking. And Trump and Putin may see it as an advantage. Mapping the changes to the extent of sea ice over the last 40 years confirms that: on a graph, the lines are clustered together like threads in a hank of silk, warming and cooling in line with each other – until this year. This year’s line drops down like a thin thread dangling into the void. Mr Trump’s choice of Rex Tillerson, former head of Exxon Mobil and cheerleader for Mr Putin, as secretary of state is deeply worrying. Two friendly world leaders facing one another across a vanishing Arctic ice cap. The thawing of the cold war is no longer a metaphor.
Oustanding stuff Wipneus! Or should that be astounding? Snow White has endeavoured to spread the word: #Wipneus explains his astonishing #Arctic + #Antarctic #SeaIce graphs. Now with extent & volume too: https://t.co/O3IfUgOacd #ASIF pic.twitter.com/UA01GmY8iS— Snow White (@GreatWhiteCon) December 20, 2016
Jai - I too heard that podcast, and I also saw the way Vid was misreprenting Neven in public. I directed his attention here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defamation#Norway What action would you recommend be taken against someone who ignores repeated warnings, whether you subscribe to the same beliefs or not?
Toggle Commented Dec 20, 2016 on PIOMAS December 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Susan - The pleasure is all mine, and thanks for your kind words. Is "Going out to bat" the metaphor you're searching for? Wayne - Where are Young Werther and old A-Team when you need them? Graphic graphic to follow if I ever have a spare 5 minutes!
Neil - I tried to reduce Wipneus' anomaly graph to fit within the confines of Typepad, but it became illegible. I trust Wipneus numbers more than anything I see printed in the Guardian, and he does indeed reveal an "anomalous spike" to over 8 sigma. Remember this is global area, not NSIDC Arctic extent.
Sam - The "grey band" is on the individual Arctic/Antarctic graphs. You can argue until the cows come home about how legitimate it is to lump the two together. For more on the current state of the "Arctic art", hot off the presses from AGU, see also: Arctic Sea Ice News from AGU Navegante may wish to peruse that too? No politics, until you get to the comments at least!
Navegante - I'm sure we all miss Neven's stuff, but he has a PassivHaus to finish building amongst many other things to get on with. Walking the Walk! I feel sure that more "techie" stuff will arrive here in due course. I also feel sure that in the "current climate" the political dimension should not be ignored. The "denialism" ain't "petty" no more. Allegedly it will be in The White House in the not too distant future.
Hans - I can't claim to have personally verified the calculations, but "seven sigma" has been bandied about. Including in The Grauniad. For those who aren't ancient Anglo-Saxons like me, once upon a time in a land far far away The Guardian was famous for its misprints.