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Jim Hunt
South West England
Recent Activity
What with one thing and another I've recently produced an animation using the new version 3 Arctic sea ice age data from the NSIDC. As far as I'm aware it's not possible to embed videos in Typepad comments, so it can be perused at: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/steve-goddard-busted/#May-1 See if (unlike some people) you can spot the multi-year ice melting out in the Beaufort and Greenland Seas over the last 5 or so years.
As the Great Arctic Anticyclone of Spring 2016 slowly fades I ponder the effect of waves in the Beaufort Sea where sea ice would normally be in April: Wind Waves in the Beaufort Sea in April 2016 Whilst Jason 3 won’t be watching waves in the Arctic Ocean it looks as though the European Space Agency’s Sentinel 3A satellite will be providing wave height data for the Beaufort Sea in the not too distant future.
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
The latest Beaufort Sea ice area plot suggests that the large polynya created by the winds from the continuing high pressure system is no longer refreezing. (Click the image for a larger version) The winds are forecast to have died down by the end of April, by which time above zero temperatures are forecast to have arrived!
Toggle Commented 6 days ago on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
These ones you mean navegante? http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/08/barrow-battered-by-big-waves/ The cause of the flooding that is all too visible is a cyclone that’s been whirling around in the Chukchi Sea for a while. A swell 4 to 5 metres high with a period of 10 seconds heading directly towards Barrow Beach. Huge, wind-whipped waves crashed onto the shore at Barrow on Thursday, forcing the closure of a nearby road. Westerly winds were gusting up to 50 miles an hour, pushing waves up to the top of the beach and causing some erosion, the National Weather Service said. One cannot help but wonder what would happen should a swell with a period of 15 or even 20 seconds develop in that part of the world?
Toggle Commented Apr 22, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
Neil, You may wish to peruse my own research into the effects of "wave action" on Beaufort Sea ice? Sea Ice and Swells in the Beaufort Sea in the Summer of 2014
Toggle Commented Apr 22, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
The ECMWF forecast is for the current high pressure area to keep the Gyre spinning for a few more days at least: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/#comment-214300 Based on that prognosis the US Navy's ACNFS suggests the entrance to McClure Strait will be cleared of old ice just as the flow of (comparatively!) warm water from the Mackenzie River into the eastern Beaufort Sea starts to increase:
Toggle Commented Apr 20, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
Bill, I hadn't seen that most interesting article before. My thanks for bringing it to my attention: Over the past 30 years the average September ice extent has been declining at an astonishing rate of more than 11% per decade. The surplus heat needed to explain the loss of Arctic sea ice during the past few decades is on the order of 1 W/m². Observing, attributing, and predicting such a small amount of energy remain daunting problems. Perhaps I might return the favour? Have you previously seen this 1958 video of Norbert Untersteiner treating the Arctic as an adventure playground? https://youtu.be/vqWSe6dOgO0 It also contains a top secret recording of certain cold war activities of the US Navy's submarine fleet!
Charles - It's not exactly regular as yet, but here's another ironic tall tale for you from 2013: The Northwest Passage is Open for Business One of the world’s few modern ice-class bulk carriers – MV NORDIC ORION – will carry a cargo of 73,500 tons of coal via the so called North West Passage through Arctic waters to Finland.
I see what you mean Bill. No doubt the Chinese media would have loudly proclaimed the feat if the Xue Long had actually reached the Pole itself. As it is they seem to have been a bit coy about the Snow Dragon's precise route. I actually met the guy that wrote this article in Oslo: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2013-03/14/content_16307087.htm The emphasis was very much on "trade" rather than "tourism"! Getting back to cruise ships, as far as I am aware the closest one has ever got to the North Pole was the Hanseatic which reached 85° 40.7' N by "sheer good fortune" in 2014: http://www.hl-cruises.com/cruising-with-us/since-1891/northeast-passage You will note that there may well be a cruise ship traffic jam in the Northwest Passage this summer! http://www.hl-cruises.com/find-your-cruise/BRE1616 At the beginning of the 20th century, Roald Amundsen completed the first full passage. To this day, various thrilling legends abound about this part of the Canadian Arctic, and you will follow in their path on this expedition. When ice determines the course, the pioneering spirit of times gone by will come to life on board the BREMEN. A challenge to which the ship rises with its highest ice class and experienced crew. Was there any mention of the ice class of the Crystal Monstrosity in the brochures? The owners don't seem entirely confident in that regard, since they've hired RSS Ernest Shackleton for support: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-northwest-passage-in-2016/#comment-214287 On your final point, Mr. Rose has been remarkably silent on Arctic matters recently. Perhaps even Paul Dacre can't see a way to spin the current facts into a suitably "skeptical" story without risking ridicule?
Which "Arctic graph" are you referring to Philip? Here's ours based on University of Hamburg AMSR2 data: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#UH-AMSR2 A steady decline is visible, but not what I would call a "big drop".
Toggle Commented Apr 17, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven - I tweeted Bob earlier: https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/721457947696570368 Several of his, yours and my comments seem to be languishing on the WUWT cutting room floor: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/satellite-problems-with-arctic-sea-ice-measurement/#comment-214277
Toggle Commented Apr 17, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
Fondly imagine if you so desire AiG, but no hint of an apology, fulsome or otherwise, has yet emerged via the virtual pens of Curry, Peiser, Watts et al. http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/global-sea-ice-comeback-conspiracy/#comment-214267 Watts seem particularly keen to prevent any hint of the actual facts emerging within his soundproof "skeptical" echo chamber.
Toggle Commented Apr 16, 2016 on Greenland under early pressure too at Arctic Sea Ice
Wipneus's processing fills in the missing AMSR2 values from the previous day. Yesterdays numbers confirm that, as predicted, sea ice area in the Beaufort Sea has increased somewhat, whilst area in the Chukchi Sea is now taking a premature nose dive: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/#comment-214274 OSI-SAF also seem to have transitioned to DMSP F-18 successfully:
Toggle Commented Apr 16, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
Frank - In brief - Yes! For much more detail on that see: Satellite Problems With Arctic Sea Ice Measurement For a related story on "data quality assurance issues" in certain sections of the cryoblogosphere see also: Global Sea Ice “Comeback” Conspiracy As you point out "that can't possibly be right", but certain "experts" seemed not to notice: You will note that we were not the only ones to swiftly conclude that Judy [Curry]’s assertion was lacking both veracity and verisimilitude! Do you suppose we can now expect a “fulsome apology” from the other players in this tragi-comic farce, together with all their rebloggers, retweeters, plagiarisers and other assorted acolytes?
Toggle Commented Apr 16, 2016 on Greenland under early pressure too at Arctic Sea Ice
Bill - The Xue Long isn't exactly a "cruise ship", and as far as I am aware succeeded in "pulling that stunt". Do you have information to the contrary? You may be interested in discovering the tall (but nonetheless true) tale of how once upon a time I found myself having lunch with some Chinese sea ice experts: The Strange Tale of The Mail and The Snow Dragon Shortly afterwards I crossed swords with Rose of The Mail for the first time!
Bill - Because for some strange reason known only to themselves Willis n Willard wanted data going back as far as 1974! I did endeavour to ask some (im)pertinent questions of the dynamic duo, but my enquiries were swiftly cast upon the WUWT cutting room floor: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-awful-terrible-horrible-arctic-sea-ice-crisis/ Please feel free to wander over there and take part in our ground breaking sea ice Rorschach test.
Toggle Commented Apr 14, 2016 on Beaufort under early pressure at Arctic Sea Ice
My latest video of the Beaufort & Chukchi seas: https://youtu.be/hHf7Raxs5rM According to an expert in such matters: https://twitter.com/sineadlfarrell/status/720470923967610880 The sea ice has been quite dynamic in this area for about 2 months now. Active Beaufort gyre. While common at this time of year, it's a significant break-out in terms of scale. Now it's down to synoptic conditions. The current forecast suggests the Gyre is going to keep on spinning for a while yet.
Toggle Commented Apr 14, 2016 on Beaufort under early pressure at Arctic Sea Ice
Rob - I'm attempting to arrange an interview with somebody from the NSIDC regarding both the F-17 issue and the current state of the Beaufort Sea ice. More news on that front as and when they wake up in Boulder. Meanwhile several of the usual suspects have been surreally suggesting that "Global sea ice makes a strong comeback!". I'm afraid Snow White wasn't inclined to take that load of old ballcocks lying down. Read all about it at: Global Sea Ice “Comeback” Conspiracy Both Prof. Curry and non Prof. Watts adorned their “Tweets” with a graph allegedly comparing “global temperature” with “tropical temperature”, but provided no graph of “polar temperature”.
Toggle Commented Apr 14, 2016 on Beaufort under early pressure at Arctic Sea Ice
Or even human powered Andy? http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-northwest-passage-in-2016/#Charles Charles Hedrich completed his own multi-year voyage through the NWP last summer. His vessel was much smaller than Franklin’s: “He is now, the first man to have rowed solo the North-West Passage.” Charles' vessel was also much smaller than Crystal Serenity!
My own take on the prospective voyage of the Crystal Serenity through the Northwest Passage: The Northwest Passage in 2016 Whilst I think her cruise will prove to be eminently feasible this summer I agree with you and Suzanne that it is a very dumb idea. Amongst other things: There will not be shore-based cell phone signals along the transit, except in the communities and towns we will be visiting. However, guests are requested to not use this signal when in port, as it will overwhelm the local system and disrupt the communication within the community. Please do pop in and have a look at all the other charts, songs, history and videos that seem to be swiftly accumulating over there too.
Quite so Rob. The DoD is rapidly running out of weather satellites, let alone SSMIS equipped ones. Maybe F-20 will be unmothballed now? An in depth analysis of the current issues from yours truly: "Satellite Problems With Arctic Sea Ice Measurement" Skeptical sorts across the cryoblogosphere are in meltdown mode at the moment. They seem to be unaware that satellites don’t last forever in the harsh environment of space, and the individual scientific instruments carried by a satellite don’t either. Some failures are more spectacular than others however.
Toggle Commented Apr 12, 2016 on Beaufort under early pressure at Arctic Sea Ice
OSI-SAF have already announced they are switching satellites from DMSP F-17 to F-18: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/03/nsidc-announce-the-2016-arctic-sea-ice-maximum-extent/#comment-214218
Toggle Commented Apr 11, 2016 on Beaufort under early pressure at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven - See also this re Sentinel 3 on the "European side": http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1377.msg71174.html#msg71174 I'm not clear if that means Sentinel could act as a "CryoSat replacement" though.
Toggle Commented Apr 11, 2016 on Beaufort under early pressure at Arctic Sea Ice
Diablo and Bill may possibly be interested in the results of my own recent research into suspiciously selective reporting of the results of their research in certain quarters of the cryospheric blogosphere? The Awful Terrible Horrible Arctic Sea Ice Crisis As our regular reader(s) will be aware, Anthony Watts has been plagiarising our content and republishing it on his “Watts Up With That” blog. In a perplexing perversity he has also been refusing to publish content that we have happily contributed to the very same blog.
AiG - See also: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/beaufort-sea-ice-graphs/ not to mention: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#Beaufort
Toggle Commented Apr 10, 2016 on Beaufort under early pressure at Arctic Sea Ice