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Jim Hunt
South West England
Recent Activity
Susan - You could try: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/09/the-2017-arctic-sea-ice-metric-minima/ 67 comments so far, and the "discussion" is heating up even as the Arctic slowly cools down.
Toggle Commented 4 hours ago on PIOMAS September 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
News from the Antarctic just for a change. The Pine Island Glacier has calved a big one yet again: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/09/pine-island-glacier-calves-again/
Toggle Commented 5 hours ago on PIOMAS September 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hans - You may be interested in this? http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1834.msg125795.html#msg125795 There's little support for the polynya occurring every year, which restricts the space of possible explanations.
The latest blog post from Andreas Muenchow: https://icyseas.org/2017/08/28/two-years-ocean-observing-below-petermann-glacier-greenland/
Hans - There's much more on that story on the ASIF: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,854.msg123499.html#msg123499
A very interesting winter, followed by a very interesting summer! And the show's not over until the fat lady sings. I'm not about to make such a prediction, but I wonder if Lewis and/or Neven would care to predict the value (and date?) of the summer 2017 minimum for one or more Arctic sea ice metrics? Here's some more suggestions from the ASIF: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2126.0.html
Whatever criterion you choose to use, I think it's now just about safe to say that the Northern Sea Route is "open": http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/08/the-northern-sea-route-in-2017/#Aug-19 The Northwest Passage isn't quite there yet. IMHO!
Toggle Commented Aug 22, 2017 on PIOMAS August 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
See also the Arctic Coastal Change thread over on the forum.
Toggle Commented Aug 19, 2017 on Guest blog: Tuk toy what? at Arctic Sea Ice
Here's a Typepad compatible animation from Wipneus, revealing the effect of the two recent cyclones on the Pacific side, plus everything else that’s been going on in the Arctic too: Click the image to see a much larger (3.3 Mb) version.
Toggle Commented Aug 13, 2017 on PIOMAS August 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
I tried that Rob, but as a 3rd party I still only saw the "Please update your account" image.
For those particularly interested in wildfires there is an entire section of the Arctic Sea Ice Forum devoted to them: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1368.0.html The current "unusual fire event [in] Greenland (southwest)" does get a mention. For the benefit of irregular readers, almost any Cryospheric topic you might wish to discuss will already have been covered over on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum. Failing that feel free to start a new thread over there. Neven's monthly PIOMAS articles here on the ASIB can be considered as limited "open threads", but otherwise please endeavour to stay "on topic" in here.
Actually the best place to look for such things is the Petermann Gletscher thread over on the ASIF: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,53.msg122402.html#msg122402 There you can see a whole sequence of images of: The little piece (about 6 km2) at the front of Petermann Glacier that I have been watching [that] has broken off.
At the risk of inflaming matters further: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-40877099 Fires are rare on an island where 80% of the land is covered by ice up to 3km thick in places. However, satellites have observed smoke and flames north-east of a town called Sisimiut since 31 July. Experts believe at least two fires are burning in peat that may have dried out as temperatures have risen.
Exactly so Susan. Once again. In actual fact Alice F., Snow White and I can take it too. Maybe we should all get together and form a red team?
Excellent Daniel. Some progress at last! It does of course remain to be seen whether Bill is satisfied with that. Moving on, how about retracting your "rather damning indictment of this community" too?
Here's a suggestion for you Daniel. Why don't you start by apologising for calling Mr. Fothergill "Bob"? Then perhaps you might like to read my article on why facts are not enough? http://AFWetware.org/2017/03/21/the-problem-with-facts/
Susan - Exactly so. Daniel - Since you continue to adopt that tone please take this as fair warning that Snow White and her Prince Charming enjoy nothing better than taking the piss out of people in public (TTPooPiP for short)!
Daniel - I strongly suggest that you recalibrate your tone. I've shared a few jars with Bill (not Bob) over the years and I can assure you that he is a fine fellow. He is a highly esteemed and highly amusing guest author at "Snow White's" blog. FYI here is a picture I took of him pretending to be a climate model grid cell during a lecture at the University of Exeter: Sorry Bill!
DavidR - I suspect your most recent comment should have been addressed to me? If so did you follow my link and click through to WRIT? It: Allows you to produce plots and timeseries for arbitrary ares of Planet Earth using NCEP/NCAR, ERA Interim, MERRA-2 and numerous other reanalysis products.
Toggle Commented Aug 9, 2017 on PIOMAS August 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Kris - To be frank I don't think that's a "bold prediction" at all. I think it's a dead certainty, albeit not just yet: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/08/the-northern-sea-route-in-2017/ The Northwest Passage is proving to be a bit more stubborn this year however.
Toggle Commented Aug 9, 2017 on PIOMAS August 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
The effects of the recent cyclone on the sea ice north of the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas is now readily visible: "Facts About the Arctic in August 2017" There's another pulse of significant swell due real soon now too. Perhaps Pen Hadow's mission to sail two yachts to the North Pole this summer isn't entirely beyond the bounds of possibility after all?
Toggle Commented Aug 9, 2017 on PIOMAS August 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
DavidR/Neven - However see also my caveats about NCEP/NCAR R1 at: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/reanalysis-of-arctic-climate/ It will be extremely interesting to see what ERA and MERRA come up with in due course.
Toggle Commented Aug 9, 2017 on PIOMAS August 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
John - Have you seen Wipneus' compactness graphs? http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#Compactness They do indeed show that this year the ice is more compact than several others in recent history. However there was a big reduction yesterday!
Toggle Commented Aug 7, 2017 on PIOMAS August 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
The cyclones you refer to aren't entirely benevolent Neven. Here's my own take on the start of the 2017 Arctic big wave surfing season: "Facts About the Arctic in August 2017" If you can believe the models this weekend's storm produced 2.5 meter waves with a period of ~8 seconds heading in the direction of the ice edge on the Pacific side of the basin: The next pulse of swell in a couple of days is forecast to be both larger and longer period. It will also be aiming in the direction of the Beaufort Sea marginal ice zone, or what's left of it at least. That is not what happened during GAC 2012.
Toggle Commented Aug 7, 2017 on PIOMAS August 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hans - There's more winds forecast for Sunday that should follow that with 2 meter plus waves heading for the ice edge in the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/08/facts-about-the-arctic-in-august-2017/
Toggle Commented Aug 4, 2017 on PIOMAS July 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice