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Jim Hunt
South West England
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I'm not sure this is what you're expecting to see Wayne, but here is what AMSR2 reveals this morning: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/beaufort-sea-ice-graphs/
Thanks for your kind words D - I intend to! See: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/07/northabouts-great-adventure/#Jul-25 One small point though. According to Wikipedia at least: In Internet slang, a troll is a person who sows discord on the Internet by starting arguments or upsetting people, by posting inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages. IMHO at least, my musings amongst the cryodenialistas are always on topic, not off it!
Wayne - I did make that suggestion to the Polar Ocean Challenge team, but I don't think they were terribly keen on the idea: https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/755333142471467008
Wayne - Northabout visited Svalbard last year, so I suspect that (s)he prefers pastures new this year. According to the "Ship's Log": We are under sail, so saving fuel, and will find a small island to shelter until we get improvements. Somewhere in the Nordenskjold Archipelago perhaps?
O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay! The cryodenialospheric blogger formerly known as "Steve Goddard" has just published a blog post about little ol' me! "Is the Polar Ocean Challenge About to End in Disaster?" It is if you believe Tony Heller, which I humbly suggest is not a particularly wise course of action at the best of times. In his umpteenth article on Northabout’s Great Adventure over the last four days he dares to take your humble scribe’s name in vain as he loudly proclaims: “Jim Hunt Egging The Ship Of Fools On To Disaster”
Wayne - The Good Lord recently posted an article at WUWT that did indeed say that. For good measure he added: Even if the ice disappears for a week or two so what? The same was quite possibly true in the 1920s and 1930s, which were warmer than today in the northern hemisphere, but there were no satellites to tell us about it.
coyoteyogi - Here's chapter and verse on the creation of the cryoblogospheric "Yacht stuck in sea ice" meme: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/07/northabouts-great-adventure/ In an intriguing recent development Viscount Monckton of Brenchley claims: It’s possible, though not all that likely, that there will be no Arctic icecap for a week or two this summer:
The latest storm bottomed out at 986 hPa: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/07/the-mid-july-surf-forecast-for-the-beaufort-sea/ Whilst it dispersed the remaining ice in the Beaufort Sea, across the Arctic as a whole sea ice area continues its decline:
Toggle Commented Jul 21, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 4: breaking point at Arctic Sea Ice
Wayne - In which case take a look at: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/beaufort-sea-ice-graphs/ There was certainly a bit of a blip in the Beaufort Sea extent over the last few days.
Toggle Commented Jul 20, 2016 on Iced lightning at Arctic Sea Ice
Is this the sort of thing you're looking for Wayne? http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/07/the-mid-july-surf-forecast-for-the-beaufort-sea/#Jul-20
Toggle Commented Jul 20, 2016 on Iced lightning at Arctic Sea Ice
Alais - Running the GFS SLP animation on this page at Meteociel will hopefully give you the answer: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?jour=15&mois=7&annee=2016&heure=0&archive=1&mode=0&ech=6&runpara=0&carte=1 The storm started to build over the Laptev Sea on the 15th. Now it's slowly moving off towards the CAA.
Toggle Commented Jul 18, 2016 on Iced lightning at Arctic Sea Ice
Alais - There is indeed. I've been following that storm for a few days: "The Mid July Surf Forecast for the Beaufort Sea" A small snippet of the assorted images: The “Big Block” multi-year ice floe north of Barrow has split asunder overnight
Toggle Commented Jul 16, 2016 on Iced lightning at Arctic Sea Ice
Very interesting Neven, and Apocalypse4Real. Where I hail from (~50 N) thunderstorms are generally accompanied by copious amounts of rain and occasionally some hail. I cannot help but wonder what else might be descending onto the sea ice from above apart from the lightning during such storms? Perhaps the next generation of Arctic buoys should incorporate rain gauges as well as snow depth sensors?
Toggle Commented Jul 16, 2016 on Iced lightning at Arctic Sea Ice
AIG - No. Unless it was a remarkably ill informed birdy! In actual fact my money is (somewhat tongue in cheek) on 2022 at the latest: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/05/the-new-normal-in-the-arctic/#comment-209003 Of course the "perfect Arctic storm" might occur well before then, but it doesn't currently look as though 2016 will be that year. Rob - I agree with you about "One of the most interesting melting seasons in history". Iced lightning for example: https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/753256122195337216 My compliments to Wipneus too. His latest work: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg83768.html#msg83768
Toggle Commented Jul 16, 2016 on 2016 melting momentum, part 3 at Arctic Sea Ice
The current ECMWF prognosis for July 17th seems to support yesterday's surf forecast:
Toggle Commented Jul 15, 2016 on 2016 melting momentum, part 3 at Arctic Sea Ice
Sam, The US Navy Hycom may be correct, or not. ACNFS forecasts are evidently incorrect at present. The Kara Sea is not covered in sea ice this morning: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/07/has-the-ice-clearly-broken-completely-in-two-now/#Jul-15
Toggle Commented Jul 15, 2016 on 2016 melting momentum, part 3 at Arctic Sea Ice
Surface and bottom melt have now begun in earnest at the one remaining CRREL/ERDC Ice Mass Balance Buoy - 2015F: Current Buoy Data (07/15/2016) Pos: 82.89 N, 137.34 W Air Temp: -0.76 C Air Pres: 1011.16 mb Surface melt: 8 cm Bottom melt: 11 cm (albeit variable!) Ice thickness: 185 cm (Click the image for a larger version)
Toggle Commented Jul 15, 2016 on 2016 melting momentum, part 3 at Arctic Sea Ice
PS Lodger: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1368.msg81981.html#msg81981
Toggle Commented Jul 15, 2016 on 2016 melting momentum, part 3 at Arctic Sea Ice
P.S. More on the Met Office Cray: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/weather/weather-science-it/supercomputer Sharing the supercomputer will enable collaborative research such as a UK-wide research project to create a next-generation climate model (known as an Earth System Model) which captures all major aspects of the Earth's climate system (oceans, atmosphere, atmospheric chemistry, terrestrial carbon cycle and ocean biogeochemistry). For some strange reason they neglect to mention the cryosphere. You can watch it being assembled on YouTube: https://youtu.be/Z_G7NFMDsVY
Toggle Commented Jul 14, 2016 on 2016 melting momentum, part 3 at Arctic Sea Ice
Wayne - I'm afraid I posses no inside knowledge on what the Hadley Centre intend to do with their shiny new supercomputer. However I do have a weather forecast of my very own. Wind and waves in the Beaufort Sea at the weekend: Time will tell if it proves to be any more accurate than some of the UKMO's recent 3 day forecasts for their own vicinity!
Toggle Commented Jul 14, 2016 on 2016 melting momentum, part 3 at Arctic Sea Ice
Bob - Have you ever explored NASA Worldview? See e.g. http://go.nasa.gov/29LPlor
Thanks for the suggestion Bill, but I think rather more open water will be required before I take the plunge (h/t LRC): https://vimeo.com/166930720 Post Brexit I fear I'll also be unable to afford a sufficiently large pile of rubbles :(
Toggle Commented Jul 11, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 3: crunch time at Arctic Sea Ice
The first year ice between the Pole and Siberia is starting to look like the proverbial "pile of rubble": http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2016-images/#CAB
Toggle Commented Jul 11, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 3: crunch time at Arctic Sea Ice
Wayne - 2015F is the only ERDC/CRREL ice mass balance buoy currently reporting. There are "funding constraints" apparently. Here's what data I have: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2016-imbs/#2015F Click the pushpins on the map to reveal the sort of thing you're looking for. Additional suggestions are welcome. Since it's currently located at around 82 degrees north I think it will be a while before it's sitting in a melt pond!
Wayne - Wipneus explains in more detail over on the ASIF: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg79261.html#msg79261 Thickness is explained on the ADS site, but "melt ice concentration" is not. I assume that it is the same as "melt pond concentration"