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Jim Hunt
South West England
Recent Activity
Wayne - I doubt that IPSO will be interested, but here's Tamino's deconstruction of David Rose's latest "temperature" article: https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/12/07/climate-deniers-top-3-tactics/ Arctic sea ice gets a mention too. A topic on which Mr. Rose has been remarkably quiet recently for some strange reason.
Toggle Commented yesterday on PIOMAS December 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
John - I agree with you concerning DMI volume, but sticking with the limitations of PIOMAS for now, are you aware of this recent paper from Kwok, Zhang et al? "Comparison of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness from Satellites, Aircraft, and PIOMAS Data Some quick quotes from the paper: In comparisons of APP-x, CryoSat-2, and PIOMAS with IceBridge, the biases are generally positive. Negative biases are seen in April, but there are significantly fewer pixels (292) than in March (4819). The biases for APP-x, PIOMAS, and CryoSat-2 relative to IceBridge thicknesses are 0.18 m (7%), 0.18 m (7%), and 0.29 m (12%), respectively, for March–April over 2011–2013. APP-x, CryoSat-2, and PIOMAS tend to overestimate thicknesses for the thin ice area around the Beaufort Sea, and underestimate the thick ice area around northern Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago. See also this thread on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg91578.html#msg91578 To my eyes at least, the PIOMAS model seems to have been coming up with some strange results north of Greenland & the CAA in September 2016. Is the "thickest ice in the Arctic" really < 1.5 meters thick?
Toggle Commented Oct 12, 2016 on The 2016 melting season in images at Arctic Sea Ice
Even if the JAXA extent graph isn't updating you can usually get the underlying data from: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop.ver1/data/graph/plot_extent_n_v2.csv Whilst the refreeze has slowed almost to a standstill according to standard JAXA extent, Wipneus' high res AMSR2 area and extent have both been reducing recently: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#UH-AMSR2
Susan - There was a somewhat anxious wait yesterday when Northabout stopped reporting her position for a while: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/northabout-braves-the-north-atlantic/#Oct-08 However regular reports have resumed, and confirm that the crew are now past the halfway point on their quest to locate a hostelry that will serve them some Guinness: I don't think there is an ideal time to cross the North Atlantic in Autumn, but conditions have now eased somewhat. The next anticipated problem is headwinds due to the approach of another low pressure system next week.
In keeping with the "image" theme, here is Northabout in the Chukchi Sea: Similar seas in the Beaufort broke her auto-helm, which was successfully repaired in Tuktoyaktuk. The point being that not so very long ago there was ice where now there are large waves. Here's a new paper from Jim Thomson, Peter Wadhams et al.: "Emerging trends in the sea state of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas" Amongst other things it concludes: The process of wind-wave generation in partial ice cover is likely far more complex than present models suggest and is in acute need of improved understanding.
Thanks for the mention Neven, and in actual fact Northabout has ultimately experienced more problems caused by cyclones than by sea ice per se. The Polar Ocean Challenge team are currently crossing the North Atlantic back to Bristol: "Northabout Braves the North Atlantic" 14 year old Ben Edwards, who has crewed the entire Polar circumnavigation, reports: I did my watch (eight to ten) and went straight to bed, not that that saved me. Twenty minutes later I rushed to the toilet and threw up my breakfast of porridge and tea. I then went back to bed, the swell got larger, the wind got stronger, I went back to toilet. This continued for the next ten hours. In total I threw up six times, a personal best.
Michael - Three "small vessels" certainly made it through Fury and Hecla Strait, first and foremost David Scott Cowper in Polar Bound: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/08/david-scott-cowper-makes-history-again/ Eagle's Quest II (with a little help from the Canadian Coast Guard!) and Northabout got through heading East via Bellot Strait & Lancaster Sound: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/northabout-braves-the-north-atlantic/#Sep-25 Yvinec did likewise heading West: http://voyagedyvinec.com/ I'll check on the others when I have a spare moment, which won't be for a little while I'm afraid. I'm currently following Major Hurricane Matthew very closely: http://econnexus.org/hurricane-matthew-aims-at-haiti/ At the moment it seems highly likely that Matthew's eye will pass over western Haiti before passing close to or over Eastern Cuba and then heading in the general direction of the east coast of the United States. It's far too early to say with certainty whether Matthew will make landfall on the mainland of the United States of America, but...
Toggle Commented Oct 2, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Vid - The BBC has recorded for posterity a number of dispatches from Northabout on her voyage of Polar circumnavigation: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0469n5t However as far as I am aware the interview with David Hempleman-Adams will disappear once 30 days from broadcast have elapsed. For more on my "conversation" with the powers that be at the Beeb on that topic see: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/radio-four-in-arctic-sea-ice-bias-shock-today/#Sep-28
Toggle Commented Sep 29, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Quoting from the PIOMAS overview: For the ice volume simulations shown here, sea ice concentration information from the NSIDC near-real time product are assimilated into the model to improve ice thickness estimates and SST data from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis are assimilated in the ice-free areas.
Toggle Commented Sep 25, 2016 on PIOMAS September 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Michael reports on the forum that according to a provisional interim release of daily gridded data this years minimum PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume was 4.3882 thousand km³ on September 6th.
Toggle Commented Sep 25, 2016 on PIOMAS September 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Michael - Actually quite a few "small yachts" have made it through Fury and Hecla Strait already this summer, most notably David Scott Cowper heading west in Polar Bound: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/08/david-scott-cowper-makes-history-again/
Toggle Commented Sep 24, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
A clip from a larger MODIS image of McClure Strait: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201617-images/#CAA If it wasn't for the entire cryodenialosphere claiming that the Northwest Passage is frozen solid I might be tempted to think that you could circumnavigate Banks Island in a small yacht at the moment.
Toggle Commented Sep 24, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
P-Maker - Not content with lambasting the Beeb, today I'm going after Breitbart London: The Son of the Blog of Fools Gets Arctic Sea Ice Horrifically Wrong Now how can I put this politely? That is pure unadulterated balderdash. If Mr. Delingpole thinks that a comment on a known “snow blind” blog constitutes evidence of anything he needs one of his heads examined. Deconstructing all the mistakes in just this one article about both Northabout and the BBC’s climate change coverage will involve a series with more episodes than BBC Radio 4s! Is it possible to sink any lower than Dellers?
Toggle Commented Sep 22, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
But I voted Bremain PMaker! I'm now thinking of starting a new popular movement for Brythonic independence. Would you care to become an ambassador for the Free Dumnonian Army?
Toggle Commented Sep 22, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
As I mentioned previously, the news shocked me too Neven. "Blizzard of Oz" took the time and trouble to pop into the Arctic Sea Ice Forum, and not just announce the latest news but also engage in meaningful discussions. He will be sadly missed, and his shoes are big ones to fill. RIP Blizzard.
Toggle Commented Sep 21, 2016 on In memoriam: Andrew Slater at Arctic Sea Ice
A heads up for fellow residents of the once Great Britain. On September 19th the BBC Radio 4 Today programme discussed Arctic sea ice. The views of the 5th Viscount Ridley, the well known "coal baron" and "financial wizard", were reported in the absence of any balancing "science". I have registered an official complaint. Should you wish to do likewise instructions can be found at: "Radio Four in Arctic Sea Ice Bias Shock Today!" The powers that be at the Beeb assure me: We aim to reply within about 2 weeks.
Toggle Commented Sep 21, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Bill/Rob - "Tamino" didn't call me names, but he didn't answer the questions I posed (in graphic detail!) either. Perhaps he is allergic to "cryo-alarmists" as well as "cryo-denialists"? Even so it still strikes me as rather strange behaviour on his part.
Toggle Commented Sep 19, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
The Barrow "surfcam" seems to be offline at the moment. Nonetheless, here is the surf forecast: ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT MONDAY... * WAVES AND SURF...WAVES TO 10 FEET BREAKING JUST OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH TIDES UP TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL CAUSE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS. * ICE...WITH ICE JUST OFF SHORE FROM BARROW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CHUNKS OF SEA ICE WILL WASH UP ON SHORE EVEN WITH WINDS PREDICTED TO BE AT NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SHORE. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. * TIMING...HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. * IMPACTS...HIGH SURF WILL WASH TO THE TOP OF THE BEACH AND CAUSE BEACH EROSION. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE AND SURF COULD WASH ONTO LOW LYING ROADS NEAR THE BEACH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. SURF COULD WASH ONTO LOW LYING ROADS NEAR THE BEACH LIMITING TRAVEL NEAR THE BEACH. PEOPLE SHOULD MOVE BOATS AND PERSONAL PROPERTY INLAND FROM THE BEACH.
Toggle Commented Sep 17, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Try this Bill: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#UH-AMSR2
Toggle Commented Sep 17, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Rob - Northabout left Upernavik yesterday, planning on heading to Nuuk via Ilulissat: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/northabout-heads-for-home/#Sep-16 When they feel able to head across the North Atlantic to Bristol remains to be seen. It is certainly not beyond the bounds of possibility that there will be winds of 30 knots and more to contend with on that final leg of the Polar Ocean Challenge!
Toggle Commented Sep 17, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
William - Take a look at CAB area instead of extent: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/september-arctic-cyclone-alert/#Sep-17 Do you notice any difference? Rob - Yes.
Toggle Commented Sep 17, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Vid is now live at: http://bcfmradio.com/
Toggle Commented Sep 16, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
The current Arctic cyclone is down to 975 hPa: It looks as though Barrow is in for another battering, and what's more Tropical Storm Ian is heading for the Arctic Circle even as we speak: "September Arctic Cyclone Alert!"
Toggle Commented Sep 16, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Good luck Vid! Where are going in Bristol? I ask in part because Bristol (UK!) is a mere hour or so from here on the train.
Toggle Commented Sep 16, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Julienne Stroeve, David Hempleman-Adams, Benji Edwards and Northabout can be viewed on ITV.com until 23:00 UTC tonight: http://www.itv.com/hub/itv-news-at-ten/2a4409a0183 The Arctic bit starts at ~26 minutes. A packet of virtual peanuts to the first person to spot what the journos got wrong.
Toggle Commented Sep 15, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice