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Jim Hunt
South West England
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Wayne - 2015F is the only ERDC/CRREL ice mass balance buoy currently reporting. There are "funding constraints" apparently. Here's what data I have: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2016-imbs/#2015F Click the pushpins on the map to reveal the sort of thing you're looking for. Additional suggestions are welcome. Since it's currently located at around 82 degrees north I think it will be a while before it's sitting in a melt pond!
Wayne - Wipneus explains in more detail over on the ASIF: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg79261.html#msg79261 Thickness is explained on the ADS site, but "melt ice concentration" is not. I assume that it is the same as "melt pond concentration"
Those "Temperatures in eastern Siberia" have reached the ice. Here's the latest JAXA/ADS surface melt map: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/06/summer-2016-surface-melt-takes-off/#Jun-05
Bob - Such things are more easily tracked via Worldview. See for example: http://go.nasa.gov/25H07os and: http://go.nasa.gov/1Zo5dPa
My own take on the "official" start of the 2016 surface melting season: Summer 2016 Surface Melt Takes Off The ESS and NW Passage are obviously melting. The cryodenialosphere are trying desperately to deny it. There are almost no buoys left out there measuring it.
Villabolo - I'm already "Harassing Heller": Arctic Fraud Continues Unabated Have you noticed that the world’s leading expert on satellite imagery of the Arctic during the first 3/4 of the Holocene epoch has compared MODIS imagery of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from May 2015 with May 2016 and confirmed that there is no noticeable difference in sea ice extent between the two? Feel free to join the fun!
Bill - See: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,230.msg78506.html#msg78506 et seq.
Toggle Commented May 31, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 1: both sides at Arctic Sea Ice
Don't forget to check out late May 2014 too. See also: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1493.msg78548.html#msg78548 et seq.
Toggle Commented May 30, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 1: both sides at Arctic Sea Ice
Rob - "Export to where?" The Siberian coast of the Chukchi Sea? From CryoSat 2 at the end of April:
Toggle Commented May 29, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 1: both sides at Arctic Sea Ice
The Sea Ice Prediction Network has announced the call for contributions for the 2016 Sea Ice Outlook June report: https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2016/june/call Pan-Arctic and Alaska Regional Outlooks and gridded fields will be accepted for the 2016 June Outlook. We particularly encourage submissions for the Alaska region (i.e., Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas). Submissions that include spatial forecast maps are also encouraged. Detailed guidelines for contributions are below. This year, in addition to a short executive summary and summary of methods, we require information about datasets used for your submission. We encourage all past contributors to submit Outlooks this year and we also hope to see new participants. There is already a "Pre-Season and Informal Contribution" available for download from: https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2016/informal-contributions Three long airborne ice thickness surveys were carried out in the Northwest Passage and Canadian Beaufort Sea by York University in early April 2016, and compared to similar surveys performed in late April 2015. Results show that ice thicknesses in the Northwest Passage were similar in both years, although there was less multiyear ice (MYI) in 2016. In the Beaufort Sea, the thickness of MYI was similar to 2016. However, due to strong divergence and export, first - year ice (FYI) was much thinner than in 2015, giving rise to expectations of earlier FYI melt and disappearance in 2016 than in 2015. However, multiyear ice may survive as long as in 2015, and may thus retard the overall retreat of the ice edge as it did in 2015 For any others interested in Atlantic cyclones, there is now a tropical storm warning in effect for "Savannah River to Little River Inlet South Carolina": http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/281150.shtml?
Toggle Commented May 28, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 1: both sides at Arctic Sea Ice
This may seem wildly off topic, but since "Fish" mentions the matter, the National Hurricane Centre is currently forecasting "90% chance of tropical cyclone formation" in the North Atlantic over the next 48 hours: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on June 1st. Perhaps slightly more on topic, recall that Hurricane Alex formed on January 14th and then headed straight for Greenland. "Extremely unusual ocean heat patterns" beget "weird weather" which begets more heat heading to the far North?
Toggle Commented May 27, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 1: both sides at Arctic Sea Ice
What with one thing and another I've recently produced an animation using the new version 3 Arctic sea ice age data from the NSIDC. As far as I'm aware it's not possible to embed videos in Typepad comments, so it can be perused at: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/steve-goddard-busted/#May-1 See if (unlike some people) you can spot the multi-year ice melting out in the Beaufort and Greenland Seas over the last 5 or so years.
As the Great Arctic Anticyclone of Spring 2016 slowly fades I ponder the effect of waves in the Beaufort Sea where sea ice would normally be in April: Wind Waves in the Beaufort Sea in April 2016 Whilst Jason 3 won’t be watching waves in the Arctic Ocean it looks as though the European Space Agency’s Sentinel 3A satellite will be providing wave height data for the Beaufort Sea in the not too distant future.
Toggle Commented May 1, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
The latest Beaufort Sea ice area plot suggests that the large polynya created by the winds from the continuing high pressure system is no longer refreezing. (Click the image for a larger version) The winds are forecast to have died down by the end of April, by which time above zero temperatures are forecast to have arrived!
Toggle Commented Apr 27, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
These ones you mean navegante? http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/08/barrow-battered-by-big-waves/ The cause of the flooding that is all too visible is a cyclone that’s been whirling around in the Chukchi Sea for a while. A swell 4 to 5 metres high with a period of 10 seconds heading directly towards Barrow Beach. Huge, wind-whipped waves crashed onto the shore at Barrow on Thursday, forcing the closure of a nearby road. Westerly winds were gusting up to 50 miles an hour, pushing waves up to the top of the beach and causing some erosion, the National Weather Service said. One cannot help but wonder what would happen should a swell with a period of 15 or even 20 seconds develop in that part of the world?
Toggle Commented Apr 22, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
Neil, You may wish to peruse my own research into the effects of "wave action" on Beaufort Sea ice? Sea Ice and Swells in the Beaufort Sea in the Summer of 2014
Toggle Commented Apr 22, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
The ECMWF forecast is for the current high pressure area to keep the Gyre spinning for a few more days at least: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/#comment-214300 Based on that prognosis the US Navy's ACNFS suggests the entrance to McClure Strait will be cleared of old ice just as the flow of (comparatively!) warm water from the Mackenzie River into the eastern Beaufort Sea starts to increase:
Toggle Commented Apr 20, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
Bill, I hadn't seen that most interesting article before. My thanks for bringing it to my attention: Over the past 30 years the average September ice extent has been declining at an astonishing rate of more than 11% per decade. The surplus heat needed to explain the loss of Arctic sea ice during the past few decades is on the order of 1 W/m². Observing, attributing, and predicting such a small amount of energy remain daunting problems. Perhaps I might return the favour? Have you previously seen this 1958 video of Norbert Untersteiner treating the Arctic as an adventure playground? https://youtu.be/vqWSe6dOgO0 It also contains a top secret recording of certain cold war activities of the US Navy's submarine fleet!
Charles - It's not exactly regular as yet, but here's another ironic tall tale for you from 2013: The Northwest Passage is Open for Business One of the world’s few modern ice-class bulk carriers – MV NORDIC ORION – will carry a cargo of 73,500 tons of coal via the so called North West Passage through Arctic waters to Finland.
I see what you mean Bill. No doubt the Chinese media would have loudly proclaimed the feat if the Xue Long had actually reached the Pole itself. As it is they seem to have been a bit coy about the Snow Dragon's precise route. I actually met the guy that wrote this article in Oslo: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2013-03/14/content_16307087.htm The emphasis was very much on "trade" rather than "tourism"! Getting back to cruise ships, as far as I am aware the closest one has ever got to the North Pole was the Hanseatic which reached 85° 40.7' N by "sheer good fortune" in 2014: http://www.hl-cruises.com/cruising-with-us/since-1891/northeast-passage You will note that there may well be a cruise ship traffic jam in the Northwest Passage this summer! http://www.hl-cruises.com/find-your-cruise/BRE1616 At the beginning of the 20th century, Roald Amundsen completed the first full passage. To this day, various thrilling legends abound about this part of the Canadian Arctic, and you will follow in their path on this expedition. When ice determines the course, the pioneering spirit of times gone by will come to life on board the BREMEN. A challenge to which the ship rises with its highest ice class and experienced crew. Was there any mention of the ice class of the Crystal Monstrosity in the brochures? The owners don't seem entirely confident in that regard, since they've hired RSS Ernest Shackleton for support: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-northwest-passage-in-2016/#comment-214287 On your final point, Mr. Rose has been remarkably silent on Arctic matters recently. Perhaps even Paul Dacre can't see a way to spin the current facts into a suitably "skeptical" story without risking ridicule?
Which "Arctic graph" are you referring to Philip? Here's ours based on University of Hamburg AMSR2 data: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#UH-AMSR2 A steady decline is visible, but not what I would call a "big drop".
Toggle Commented Apr 17, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven - I tweeted Bob earlier: https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/721457947696570368 Several of his, yours and my comments seem to be languishing on the WUWT cutting room floor: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/satellite-problems-with-arctic-sea-ice-measurement/#comment-214277
Toggle Commented Apr 17, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
Fondly imagine if you so desire AiG, but no hint of an apology, fulsome or otherwise, has yet emerged via the virtual pens of Curry, Peiser, Watts et al. http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/global-sea-ice-comeback-conspiracy/#comment-214267 Watts seem particularly keen to prevent any hint of the actual facts emerging within his soundproof "skeptical" echo chamber.
Toggle Commented Apr 16, 2016 on Greenland under early pressure too at Arctic Sea Ice
Wipneus's processing fills in the missing AMSR2 values from the previous day. Yesterdays numbers confirm that, as predicted, sea ice area in the Beaufort Sea has increased somewhat, whilst area in the Chukchi Sea is now taking a premature nose dive: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/#comment-214274 OSI-SAF also seem to have transitioned to DMSP F-18 successfully:
Toggle Commented Apr 16, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
Frank - In brief - Yes! For much more detail on that see: Satellite Problems With Arctic Sea Ice Measurement For a related story on "data quality assurance issues" in certain sections of the cryoblogosphere see also: Global Sea Ice “Comeback” Conspiracy As you point out "that can't possibly be right", but certain "experts" seemed not to notice: You will note that we were not the only ones to swiftly conclude that Judy [Curry]’s assertion was lacking both veracity and verisimilitude! Do you suppose we can now expect a “fulsome apology” from the other players in this tragi-comic farce, together with all their rebloggers, retweeters, plagiarisers and other assorted acolytes?
Toggle Commented Apr 16, 2016 on Greenland under early pressure too at Arctic Sea Ice