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Jim Williams
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Remko Kampen: "Consider a well B exactly below well A." Precisely. A simple cusp catastrophe. Certainly, the potential function may be more complex, but the simple notion of falling off the edge of the minimum surface at one point to land at another location on the minimum surface holds true in all catastrophes. In fact, all weather and climate can bee seen as sequences of sets of catastrophes. When a breeze comes up and then suddenly fades mathematically it can be described as a catastrophe where the minimum surface of pressure potential at that point folds and the wind falls from one surface to another; which we perceive as a sudden change in wind speed and/or direction. There are physical events we can easily point to and qualitatively say are going be be seeds for large complex foldings of the equipotential surfaces and which will tend to generate large catastrophe regions in the minimum potential surface. One such event is when the Arctic Sea Ice completely melts out in Summer. The climatic system before the event of summer melt-out is functionally different than it will be after the event. Sudden change is to be expected, and the surprise would be if there was none.
Toggle Commented May 22, 2013 on The Four Charts That Really Matter at Arctic Sea Ice
P.S. An obvious example of a catastrophe surface is when the Arctic Sea Ice runs out before the end of Summer. Before the event we have the remaining sea ice acting as a buffer. After the event the buffer is removed. Topologically, this is a catastrophe, as the system has functionally changed.
Toggle Commented May 20, 2013 on The Four Charts That Really Matter at Arctic Sea Ice
Kevin McKinney: "Jim, you may wish to consider this exchange from Realclimate." Seems to me that the forcing has tended to end up in relatively short term (~100yr) ocean sinks (such as the Sargasso Sea) which effectively regurgitate their heat somewhat later. That is to say, we are experiencing the effects of rather small forcings from the 1800s now, and you ain't seen nothing yet. I see no evidence that the models have gotten timelines even slightly correct, though they might be doing somewhat better about long-term effects. I'm expecting the observed climate to change in what are viewed as large and sudden step changes as various catastrophe surfaces are crossed while the system seeks a new meta-stable quasi-equilibrium.
Toggle Commented May 20, 2013 on The Four Charts That Really Matter at Arctic Sea Ice
I'm still of the opinion that it is the CO2 levels from the 1800s that matter now and that current CO2 levels don't have any short-term meaning.
Toggle Commented May 20, 2013 on The Four Charts That Really Matter at Arctic Sea Ice
Just did my bit on the viral part. You'd think YouTube would have a G+ button.
Toggle Commented Apr 26, 2013 on Ice cube volume video at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim Williams added a favorite at Arctic Sea Ice
Apr 26, 2013
"I say NO! As long as the modeler has chosen a sufficiently wide range of parameters so that at least one ensemble member gets it right, then the modeler has done their job." It's not clear to me what "their job" means. I guess Climatology Modelling is just doomed to be another dismal science along with Economics. We certainly Don't have anything like Newton's Laws here. I might applaud the scientists doing the modelling while I shift funding dollars to obtaining actual data.
Toggle Commented Apr 14, 2013 on PIOMAS April 2013 - extra update at Arctic Sea Ice
Rob, I think that it is the models themselves which are gradual. That is to say, the Science used to be that climate change is slow and smooth so the models where made to reflect this belief. They do not toss the old model and start over every year because it's too expensive (even if they should), so the models slowly change in the direction of newer understanding. (Note my use of newer and older, not better or worse.) It's a simple case of Lamarkian Evolution.
Toggle Commented Apr 14, 2013 on PIOMAS April 2013 - extra update at Arctic Sea Ice
I have one general criticism of A-Team's analysis of how to get ahead -- time. He'd be right if we had another 50 years of "nothing new under the Sun," but I really doubt that whatever it takes 10 years from now will at all resemble what it took 50 years ago. This will be true from the utter collapse of the copyrighted journals to the rejection of learning in schools.
Toggle Commented Apr 13, 2013 on PIOMAS April 2013 - extra update at Arctic Sea Ice
Lodger, I think it could be said that sex caused the disease. Now I need a fig leaf... Not exactly a rebound, but volume does seem to have plateaued for a moment.
Toggle Commented Apr 6, 2013 on PIOMAS April 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
I know. Off topic... One of the decorative sages is just slightly greener than the borders of this blog P-maker. Not sure what its name is.
Personally Paul, I think your prediction is about 2.9 too high. I do agree with your assessment of the 'recovery', but I also think there are signs that the halocline may be breaking down. I admit that I'm being very aggressive in my predictions, but I'm sticking with them at least until mid-summer. This, of course, is just a guess -- but I'm rather sure that some Summer soon the ice is simply going to melt away, and this Summer is as good as any other.
Toggle Commented Apr 2, 2013 on PIOMAS March 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
If the Navy has it at all right then what's happening North of Greenland is rather impressive: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif
Toggle Commented Mar 22, 2013 on Crack is bad for you (and sea ice) at Arctic Sea Ice
Looking at 1) Current Baffin/Newfoundland Sea Ice Area, 2) Sea Surface Temperature anomaly in the North-West Atlantic, 3) the Surface Air temperature Anomaly West of (and over) Greenland, and 4) the AO, I'd like to re-ask a question I asked last fall. What happens if the Gulf Stream decides to flow to the West of Greenland?
Toggle Commented Mar 21, 2013 on Max reached (?) at Arctic Sea Ice
I'm having trouble reconciling all this cracking with the PIOMAS model for the month. I figure the model is based upon the cold snap we had a few weeks ago, but I'm really wondering if there is something going one that wasn't captured in the model. Is more of the ice thin than projected? Why else might supposed MYI areas be collapsing?
Toggle Commented Mar 18, 2013 on Crack is bad for you (and sea ice) at Arctic Sea Ice
Off Topic: I've been going bonkers reading that "[Name] on Crack is bad for you"
Toggle Commented Mar 17, 2013 on Crack is bad for you (and sea ice) at Arctic Sea Ice
Looking at Andy's Death Spiral, is that June that has fallen from about the same as March to less than January? The fact that any month has shifted that much is interesting, and I'd say that if it is late Spring then this is even more interesting.
It's a race Terry. Either automation succeeds in being able to replicate, or civilization fails. In either event Homo Sapiens is not going to fare well. I'm betting on the success of automation, and the advancement of civilization myself....but I'm doing it purely out of wishful thinking. I have no good reason to believe that civilization will survive. I just know that it is The Borg, or it is failure.
Toggle Commented Feb 11, 2013 on Open Thread February 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
I'll accept survival as a possibility Nightvid, for a small population, but not along with civilization. Do you have any reason other than hope for thinking otherwise? Actually, I'm betting for the survival of civilization -- just not as we know it. Obviously, no one actually knows what will happen -- but I think it pollyanna to think things will simply be fine. The odds are for collapse first, and survival of a radically different civilization (of cyborgs) second. The chance of a civilization like what we are used to is extremely low.
Toggle Commented Feb 10, 2013 on Open Thread February 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
I would hold, Nightvid, that it is the survival of Homo Sapiens into the 22nd century which would be extraordinary -- though I will grant the possibility of civilization collapsing without complete extermination as a reasonably likely, if not probable, possibility. What I would find truly exceptional is civilization surviving without radical transformation which effectively excludes Homo Sapiens from "Humanity." I say it is either the Borg or the Berg. Civilization in the form of a supreme Homo Sapiens is not going to survive.
Toggle Commented Feb 10, 2013 on Open Thread February 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thought I'd move the existential angst over here to the open thread where it belongs. I say it's a race between the Borg and the Berg. Current guesstimates for "The Singularity" are 2045 -- the Borg. Seems to me that's about the same time frame as we're looking at for catastrophic climate change such as collapse of ice sheets -- the Berg. So, I think the future either belongs to robots (even if those robots are us), or to the photoplankton. There's not going to be much room left for "life as we know it." I don't buy into the arguments that there's still time. They're nothing but wishful thinking.
Toggle Commented Feb 10, 2013 on Open Thread February 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Kate, you want to check out the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). That's the big chunk of ice that could "slide off and into the ocean. I mean a huge part, sliding off because of melt, a mile thick and hundreds of miles across".
Toggle Commented Feb 9, 2013 on Open Thread February 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
What's happening on the WEST side of the Peninsula (where the fragile ice sheets are)? The Weddell Sea is nice and all that, but not exactly significant. The flow rate of the PIG, on the other hand, really matters.
Toggle Commented Feb 7, 2013 on CT SIA anomaly above zero at Arctic Sea Ice
I intended maximum, though I admit to being extremely aggressive. I do expect a rapid progression from ice free all Summer to ice free all year -- on the order of the following Winter to the Winter thereafter. I'm more unclear about when it goes from ice free at the end of Summer to ice free near the beginning of Summer -- though I expect that to be rather soon. I think that once the cap is opened up one time the winds will quickly overwhelm the freshwater lens and the freeze thaw cycle will collapse.
Toggle Commented Jan 28, 2013 on PIOMAS January 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
I'm A U.S. Resident. I'm also poor. Besides, I'm making it a habit to lowball; which, I'll point out, worked out fine this year.
Toggle Commented Jan 26, 2013 on PIOMAS January 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice