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John Robb
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Some items to think about: Brexit is a true black swan. Nobody in the mainstream, including the Leave camp, saw it coming. Even now, based on the analysis being written, few people understand why it won. Why did it win?... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Global Guerrillas
Bots will transform warfare, from guerrilla warfare to conventional state conflict. Before I get to how bots will enable the automation of terrorism (a truly transformational development), let me spend a bit of time on how it will transform nation-state... Continue reading
Posted Jun 22, 2016 at Global Guerrillas
Enemies innovate, particularly open source networks like ISIS. That's a given. It's what you do in response to that innovation that matters. That's where we are at right now. As I've been writing (1, 2, and 3), it appears that... Continue reading
Posted Jun 21, 2016 at Global Guerrillas
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Three months ago, I wrote up a worst case scenario for how the US could end up in a civil war this fall. Unfortunately, nothing has changed. The conditions that make the scenario possible are still valid. In fact, in... Continue reading
Posted Jun 20, 2016 at Global Guerrillas
There are a few methods. I haven't written them up yet.
The lone wolf terrorist does not exist. The lone wolf terrorist is a fiction. He doesn't exist. The reason is simple. People don't engage in terrorism as individuals. They do it as part of a social group. They need the... Continue reading
Posted Jun 16, 2016 at Global Guerrillas
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The ISIS Caliphate is using online fealty as a way to recruit jihadis around the world. It's a powerful recasting of an ancient concept that goes well beyond modern expressions of loyalty. The way ISIS has constructed its brand of... Continue reading
Posted Jun 15, 2016 at Global Guerrillas
During his deadly attack on a packed Orlando nightclub where he killed 50 people and wounded many more, Omar Mateen called 911. On the recorded call, he pledge his loyalty to ISIS. A day later, a terrorist outside of Paris,... Continue reading
Posted Jun 14, 2016 at Global Guerrillas
The GOP convention is scheduled for 18-21 of July in Cleveland. What's the chance of protests dominating the convention? 100% Here's a good example of why: The Federal government gave Cleveland a $50 m security grant to prepare for the... Continue reading
Posted Apr 8, 2016 at Global Guerrillas
The Panama papers revealed only one of the vast networks used by criminals, corrupt politicians and tax evaders to hide wealth from scrutiny. There are many, many more. My friend, Tom Barnett, at his new digs on resilient.com explains why... Continue reading
Posted Apr 7, 2016 at Global Guerrillas
After a brief post Cold War hiatus, great power conflict has returned and it is likely to intensify as the economic woes of China, Russia, and the US worsen. During the Cold War, great power conflicts were fought through proxies... Continue reading
Posted Mar 30, 2016 at Global Guerrillas
The policy wonks are up in arms over the NYTimes and WaPo interviews with Trump on foreign policy and trade. They simply can't say enough about how uninformed Trump is on this topic.... but there's something wrong with this picture.... Continue reading
Posted Mar 27, 2016 at Global Guerrillas
The ROI (return on investment) from making FAKE attacks against EU targets could exceed $1,000,000 to $1. IF 10,000 FAKE attacks are made in the next year by self-activating, super-empowered individuals, the costs would be incalculable. The successful terrorist attacks... Continue reading
Posted Mar 22, 2016 at Global Guerrillas
The US election could get worse. It could be a prelude to a civil war. How so? Here's a simple scenario. It's November 8th and the choice is between Trump and Hillary. Both candidates have negatives approaching 70% (Hillary is... Continue reading
Posted Mar 20, 2016 at Global Guerrillas
Boston Dynamics pioneered walking robots, on both two legs and four (see video). BD's early demonstrated success led Google (aka Alphabet) to acquire them for their robotics mashup, Replicant, in December of 2013. However, Google has changed their minds. Google... Continue reading
Posted Mar 18, 2016 at Global Guerrillas
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Let's face it. Human biological evolution is very slow. Our bodies and minds are roughly the same as they were ten thousand years ago. That hasn't held us back though. Thousands of years ago, we learned an unique way to... Continue reading
Posted Mar 14, 2016 at Global Guerrillas
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Google is a pioneer in limited artificial general intelligence (aka computers that can learn w/o preprogramming them). One successful example is AlphaGo. It just beat this Go Grandmaster three times in a row. What makes this win interesting is that... Continue reading
Posted Mar 12, 2016 at Global Guerrillas
How does a global transportation system become a robotic transportation system almost overnight? The answer is clip-on robots. Robots (and their sensors) that you simply clip onto the driver's seat of the vehicle. It sees what the driver/pilot/captain would see,... Continue reading
Posted Mar 11, 2016 at Global Guerrillas
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Here's some thinking on the robotic transportation system that's headed our way. I believe it will arrive far faster than everyone suspects. The shift to robotic transportation is already underway. Tens of thousands of cars are self-driving already and millions... Continue reading
Posted Mar 10, 2016 at Global Guerrillas
My friend Nassim Taleb (the well known philosopher of decision making) adds to our understanding of why the Technorati routinely make bad decisions (from the management of the economy to national security to social policy). It also explains why they... Continue reading
Posted Mar 9, 2016 at Global Guerrillas
The shift from a marginally functional nation-state in manageable decline to a hollow state often comes suddenly..."Onward to a Hollow State" The western-style democratic nation-state is in deep decline. As I've been warning for nearly a decade, the nation-state as... Continue reading
Posted Mar 7, 2016 at Global Guerrillas
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Trump is trouncing the competition. He's doing so well that the prediction systems give him a 81% chance of winning the nomination -- despite the opposition of the entire Republican establishment. What's most surprising to many pundits and analysts is... Continue reading
Posted Feb 29, 2016 at Global Guerrillas
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Many cyber weapons are designed for deep maneuver. These virtual weapons drift across the Internet, jumping from computer to computer to computer, potentially travelling for years until they find the target they were designed to destroy. Deep maneuver is also... Continue reading
Posted Feb 22, 2016 at Global Guerrillas
The winner of the next big conflict will be the side with the best understanding of how to use bots in warfare. Bots aren't just an iterative improvement in warfare, like stealth or PGMs, it's a revolution in the making.... Continue reading
Posted Feb 21, 2016 at Global Guerrillas
The FBI wants access to the encrypted data on an iphone owned by one of the the San Bernardino terrorists. The FBI has already gotten access to the data this iphone uploaded to Apple's cloud. However, the FBI thinks there... Continue reading
Posted Feb 20, 2016 at Global Guerrillas