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John Robb
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I spent 2015 thinking and writing about the future of warfare while working for the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Specifically, I was tasked with figuring out how autonomous robotics could/would change warfare over the next twenty years,... Continue reading
Posted Jan 12, 2016 at Global Guerrillas
Germany needs young people. Its population is dwindling. It doesn't have enough of them to support a rapidly aging German population. A smart solution to this shortfall would have been to actively recruit millions of young people from around the... Continue reading
Posted Jan 11, 2016 at Global Guerrillas
What is culture? In the broad sense, it's a way of life. More specifically, it's a basket of shared behaviors that determine how we solve problems, define success, and treat each other. Culture is important. It has been proven critical... Continue reading
Posted Jan 8, 2016 at Global Guerrillas
Estimate: 2030. About 15 years for this to become a truism. Amazingly fast given the magnitude of the change. In the 19th and 20th century, illiteracy was seen as an inability to read or write. Illiteracy damaged your economic prospects... Continue reading
Posted Dec 22, 2015 at Global Guerrillas
All of the big tech companies are now open sourcing their AI (deep learning) software. They are also open sourcing the hardware designs of the machines needed to train the software. That's a big deal. This new approach to AI... Continue reading
Posted Dec 11, 2015 at Global Guerrillas
Here's a simple question. Is Islamic terrorism the product of: Option A: A tiny, fringe element. Dead-enders. Crazies. -or- Option B: A growing puritanical movement. Fanatics. ------------ Before you answer this question, consider this. The popular belief, from individuals to... Continue reading
Posted Dec 11, 2015 at Global Guerrillas
There are two parts to the revolution in robotics we are seeing. The first revolution in robotics is based on tech trends already underway. The inflection point for this revolution occurred in 2001, when the standard computer chip exceeded the... Continue reading
Posted Nov 25, 2015 at Global Guerrillas
US is one of the largest producers right now. We don't import nearly as much as 2004. Cars are moving to electric very quickly (with a vast cost reduction in operating and mx costs due to the simplification involved). So, in part, it will solve itself.
Here's some thinking on how warfare will change over the next twenty years. Fast forward 20 years (about the age of the WWW). An aging, schlerotic EU has become the destination for over a hundred million refugees and migrants fleeing... Continue reading
Posted Nov 20, 2015 at Global Guerrillas
Scott Atran: I was just with the Saudi royal family and they were telling me that 700 Saudis have just joined ISIS in Libya. Is ISIS the real source of Islamic terrorism? No. ISIS is just a symptom. The real... Continue reading
Posted Nov 17, 2015 at Global Guerrillas
Here's how ISIS is using open source warfare (wikipedia) to become more effective in conducting their global Jihad: ISIS is using open source networks to radically improve the quality and the security of its global insurgency. Aaron Brantly (at West... Continue reading
Posted Nov 17, 2015 at Global Guerrillas
The effectiveness of blood and guts terrorism isn't found in the physical and psychological damage it does. It's found in the reaction it provokes. With this in mind, will the Paris attacks provoke a reaction that makes them effective? I... Continue reading
Posted Nov 16, 2015 at Global Guerrillas
How do you control an autonomous system? This isn't an academic question. Some organizations already employ truly autonomous systems and these systems are getting very good very quickly. Since these systems are already in use, I think this question is... Continue reading
Posted Nov 13, 2015 at Global Guerrillas
The more I understand the flow of this, the less worried I am about skynet. The bigger worry is dictatorships run by human leaders that aren't reliant on big armies of human beings anymore.
Meant to say big brand. Good catch.
Right now, the machine's experience only really becomes valuable when you combine what you are doing with everyone else working on the same problem. As the basic tasks get covered, the push will be to form teams/organizations of people training machines more narrow topics. Those groups will either be standard companies or coops of people with shared interest that share the benefits of the work.
Tesla's autopilot went live a couple of weeks ago (it's one of the first car brands to do this). Unlike the autopilots and cruise controls of the past, it's an autonomous system. This means it isn't limited to the capabilities... Continue reading
Posted Oct 31, 2015 at Global Guerrillas
I think the opposite will happen. It will become increasingly common >> I'm betting that Facebook will use this for credit verification for purchases with smart phones.
Toggle Commented Oct 30, 2015 on DeepFace at Global Guerrillas
Toggle Commented Oct 30, 2015 on DeepFace at Global Guerrillas
DeepFace and other autonomous systems aren't vulnerable to the techniques that block standard face recognition built by human beings. In other words, they would see right through stuff like that, just like a human being would.
Toggle Commented Oct 29, 2015 on DeepFace at Global Guerrillas
Teaching them at first. Learning with them next. Strange idea >> You don't need to model the problem with science/engineering if you can build a system that solves it without knowing it.
Toggle Commented Oct 29, 2015 on DeepFace at Global Guerrillas
Don't think that would be a problem with this system since it isn't vulnerable to the subtle biases present in human engineering/science.
Toggle Commented Oct 29, 2015 on DeepFace at Global Guerrillas
Toggle Commented Oct 29, 2015 on DeepFace at Global Guerrillas
Facebook has an autonomous facial recognition system called "DeepFace" It currently "knows" 800 million people. DeepFace is autonomous, it makes decisions based on cognitive capabilities it built on its own. If I take a picture of you, and you are... Continue reading
Posted Oct 29, 2015 at Global Guerrillas
Toggle Commented Oct 29, 2015 on Autonomous Weapons at Global Guerrillas