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John Robb
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There's a report out today that ISIS jihadis attacked a Saudi Arabian border outpost south of Rafha (a city in southwest Iraq). The guards fled and several dozen jihadis were able to "melt into the general population" of the nearby... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Global Guerrillas
Here's an interesting strategy that is in the near term adjacent possible. It is one of the few strategies that could make a relatively unknown hacker a multi-billionaire overnight. ____ Russia has been in the throes of a financial crisis... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Global Guerrillas
Yes. Sandstorms make it harder to detect teams crossing the border via sensors/radars.
Exactly. All they need is an example (a TAZ or flipped city) and enough confusion for it to zoom. The King's elite troops can't be everywhere.
Civil war levels. Lots of people who lived there are sending me info on this.
Dirty nukes wouldn't do much to the oil under the ground. They could wreck ghawar through other means (pressure drops, etc.) which would damage the biggest oil field in the history of the world forever.
Russell, These guys aren't doing much state building - they outsource most of it to local power structures (tribes, etc.). They also have a built in law/order system with sharia law. It simplifies expansion. For example, they run Mosul - 1 m people - with just 5,000 soldiers. JR
They buy talent. They also purchased modular/mobile refineries to process bunkered oil. They adapt. Would the US intervene? Yes, but it would be a very messy and very bloody civil war. Would it be better? It depends how you define better. Thanks. JR
Gabe, Very true. The answer is in the growth rate that's built into their expectations. It changes their decision making. Also, if you know that assumption, you can anticipate their next move. JR
The west wouldn't let them pump anything.
NOTE: this is a non-traditional approach to thinking about warfare and ISIS. I use it, and so should you, to generate new insights into the problem. This framework explores the impact of the entrepreneurial mindset on modern warfare. One of... Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Global Guerrillas
Militants toppled two transmission pylons causes a cascade of failure that plunged most of Pakistan (140 out 190 m people) into a blackout. Here's some insight into this: Apparently, the attackers found a systempunkt. A systempunkt is the node in... Continue reading
Posted 5 days ago at Global Guerrillas
If #ISIS can recruit people from nearly every country in the world, how well do you think it could do in Saudi Arabia if given an unfettered opportunity to do so…. If it can recruit French military personnel (including men... Continue reading
Posted 6 days ago at Global Guerrillas
The jihadi entrepreneurs of ISIS don't just accumulate wealth and territory. They are also accumulating violence capital. What is violence capital? In traditional businesses, money is the primary form of capital. In on-line businesses, network capital (the size of the... Continue reading
Posted 6 days ago at Global Guerrillas
Last week I wrote that ISIS would attack Saudi Arabia this spring. This week the opportunity to attack with a high likelihood of success arrived: The King of Saudi Arabia died today. Unfortunately for the Saudi's, King Abdulla died before... Continue reading
Posted Jan 22, 2015 at Global Guerrillas
Here's some interesting outliers. Information that isn't easy to parse. Over the last week, local ISIS forces have: Publicly executed 13 teens in Mosul who were watching a soccer game (Iraq vs. Jordan). Rounded up 15 teen boys for raising... Continue reading
Posted Jan 20, 2015 at Global Guerrillas
The Sauds found their first big ISIS cell in May (62 members). Many more. Won't help if the troops melt away or join the Jihad when they engage with ISIS>
Last week, just before the Charlie Hebdo attack, ISIS sent a suicide team across the border into Saudi Arabia. Here's what happened. The attack was successful. The team found and killed the Saudi general (Oudah al-Belawi) in charge of the... Continue reading
Posted Jan 15, 2015 at Global Guerrillas
Here's a simple fact of life at the start of the 21st Century. Every bit of unencrypted data, no matter where it is stored, has already been compromised or soon will be. Lost to theft, leak, or incompetence. It doesn't... Continue reading
Posted Jan 13, 2015 at Global Guerrillas
The EU governments got together on January 11th to condemn the attack on Charlie Hebdo. However, they concluded that the best response is to curtail freespeech, ramp up propaganda, increase surveillance on citizens, and place a ban on the types... Continue reading
Posted Jan 12, 2015 at Global Guerrillas
"It is a war against terrorism, against jihadism, against radical Islam, against everything that is aimed at breaking fraternity, freedom, solidarity... There needs to be a firm message about the values of the republic and of secularism." French Prime Minister... Continue reading
Posted Jan 10, 2015 at Global Guerrillas
What made the attack in Paris different was the specificity. That's substantially different than the generalized attack.
Toggle Commented Jan 9, 2015 on The Red Queen's Trap at Global Guerrillas
The Red Queen's Trap is a paradox torn from the pages of Lewis Carroll's "Through the Looking Glass." The Red Queen, in the book, uses it to explain how different her kingdom is from all the others. She says: "It... Continue reading
Posted Jan 8, 2015 at Global Guerrillas