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Remko Kampen
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"... how is it possible that 2014 will probably come in among the warmest" It will. November and December have to rank only tenth, but will probably both go for gold. The 'pause' refers to the pause in non-recordbreaking months. Annex the language and turn it back on the plunder ideologists.
Toggle Commented Nov 5, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
"I've never seen anything to disbelieve that simple graph" - explains the ignorance. Bad eyesight. Cincinnatus should kindly ask others to see for him, instead of projecting ire over his handicap. Wot cooling. http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/09/15/3567464/nasa-hottest-august/
"Here is the temperatures for Norway, by the way." said one Ostepop1000. Well, we decided to not go to this country in summer anymore. Last year was already bad but this year was unbearable. http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/climate.month07.html Entire forests are dying or have already died from the crazy drought and heat. Sun doesn't set at night. No airco. Be my guest, try it.
Toggle Commented Sep 10, 2014 on PIOMAS September 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Right, Jim, I realized those complexities from the text and decided not to expand on that for my short explanation to Bill. Arctic sea must be the murkiest place to measure anything on the planet :) Last year's surprise has me actually withholding participation on any minimum extent poll this year. I'll remain waiting for the wipe-out, which will apparently also be a big surprise when it happens; me I can only hope it doesn't happen before next year (I've postulated the wipe-out in 2004 at +12 to +15 years, never saw reason to revise this estimate).
Hi Bill, follow the link - x-axis is explained below the chart in there: "The x-axis of the graph shows the thermistor number. Number 1 on the left is in the air above the sea ice, to start with at least. The last one on the right (28 in this case) is in the water below the ice. In the absence of further information the ones in between are open to interpretation, but they are nominally 10 cm apart." The dots correspond to specific sensors of which apparently some thirty are located vertically spaced at 10 cm per buoy.
Jai 's been "... documenting some of the very strange patterns I have witnessed in the forum here" - great job, that thread into daily check by me now.
Toggle Commented May 30, 2014 on Greenland 2013 in review at Arctic Sea Ice
Dan said I've been looking at the NH Jet Stream for a while now, and it's looking quite ill. So it is. Smeared out subtrop high first seen in July 2006. Then, the Sandy block. Now, this sickening pattern - I mean that, I feel queasier by the week looking at forecast charts or any synoptic of the day - seems to become normal. Some remarks on this I made here: http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/05/piomas-may-2014.html#comments at Remko Kampen | May 16, 2014 at 11:51 and Remko Kampen | May 18, 2014 at 18:31 . Stuck circulation patterns. Results are dire and include e.g. the Balkan floods of last week.
Toggle Commented May 30, 2014 on Greenland 2013 in review at Arctic Sea Ice
Chris, on that German text. In short, a long time ago German climatologist Franz Baur devised a categorisation for North-Atlantic circulation types. They number 24 plus a bucket for 'transitionary' flows. Then, there is a statistic as of 1900, daily. Notes: - Such a pattern on average used to exist for 3-4 days. - A transient pattern, however, 1-2 days. - There is no relation whatsoever between two successive patterns. In the 2010 report, find Fig. 12, showing the increasing trend in 'stuckness' of patterns (any). While the graph there seems to taper down a bit, the effect has nevertheless increased since. But in 2010, the Newfoundland-Greenlandblock didn't take existence time like it does today. The article, and the original catalog, doesn't mention it as a specific pattern. This may be explained partly for its rareness and the fact that the catalog tried to be relevant for Europe, rendering such a 'Sandy block' into different patterns depending on the location and length of the trough to its east (Germany could get both northwesterly and southerly air flows from it and they are considered widely different patterns). Better leaf through all and sundry in the charts archive, methinx. I know a lot of them but confess I didn't go through absolutely every summer's day.
Toggle Commented May 18, 2014 on PIOMAS May 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
"I'm not aware of Newfoundland/South Greenland being forbidden for GPH highs." [Chris Reynolds] Such highs near the Cold Wall (this is where Labrador- and Gulf Stream meet) rarely lasted a day, that is they used to form an endless chain of fast moving highs turning Azores. Blockings in this region used to be rare and shortlived. In fact the only convincing one I knew until a few years ago was this one: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1985/Rrea00119851101.gif . I coined the term 'Sandy High' for them. That was the first convincing one (resulting in the very first hurricane making a left turn like she did). Since this strange pattern or things like it have become almost common. An immediate repeat of Sandy was the Nemo winter storm situation a month or two later. Enjoyable archive: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsreaeur.html . The pattern coming week exhibits the pathology again. It is as if (only: as if!) a much weakened circumpolar jet coincides with the subtropical jet while the Arctic jet, usually a nondescript feature, is displaced slightly to the north and vastly stronger than climate used to be. This sickish pattern seen first half July 2006. To be sure, such patterns have occurred in history many times too, but the crucial difference is they used to be transitional circulations lasting two days at the very most, while they stick like glue these years. Generally there is a very measureable increase in length of duration of any Atlantic pattern - over +50% by 2010, perhaps already double now. Average duration used to be 3-4 days, became 5-6 by 2010 (reference: http://www.pik-potsdam.de/research/publications/pikreports/summary-report-no.-119 ).
Toggle Commented May 16, 2014 on PIOMAS May 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
"There are some pretty extreme blocking patterns starting now." - By Jai. Indeed, and I have to note once more that over 30 years of experience with north Atlantic circulation patterns are down the drain. But I'm beginning to see the picture, I think, and it is dead simpel. A very strong poleward shift of the subtropical dynamical high pressure band. See http://globalweatherlogistics.com/seaiceforecasting/gfs.500mb.height.anomaly.arctic.html . The strangest feature to me is the strong increase of these warm highs in an area we used to know to be 'forbidden' for this, that is around Newfoundland/South Greenland.
Toggle Commented May 15, 2014 on PIOMAS May 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
KSchwanke: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ekman_spiral .
Toggle Commented Jul 4, 2013 on So, how slow was this start? at Arctic Sea Ice
What for, Kate? Another goes like this I mean: --- EXCITEMENT ABOUNDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS UNUSUALLY HOT TEMPERATURES WERE FELT ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS . . . HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN TIED OR BROKEN . . . BUT TODAYS TEMPERATURES SOARED BEYOND ANYTHING PREVIOUSLY SEEN IN THIS AREA. IN VALDEZ . . . THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 75 DEGREES SET IN 1997 WAS SHATTERED WHEN . . . AT 45 MINUTES AFTER 3 PM...THE MERCURY IN OUR THERMOMETER SHOT UP TO 90 DEGREES. AFTER A BRIEF DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S . . . THE MERCURY AGAIN REGISTERED 90 DEGREES AT 15 MINUTES BEFORE 6 PM. THIS ALSO CRUSHED THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ANY DAY OF THE YEAR . . . AND FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE . . . WHICH WAS 87 DEGREES AND WAS ACHIEVED TWICE . . . ON BOTH THE 25TH AND THE 26TH OF JUNE IN 1953. A LOCAL WEATHER SPOTTER IN TOWN RECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87 DEGREES NEAR THE HOSPITAL DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS WELL. SUN-WORSHIPERS WERE OUT IN FORCE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS . . . AS THE TEMPERATURE AT 10 PM WAS STILL AN ASTOUNDING 77 DEGREES. --- From the NWS. Look at the margins.
Jai Mitchell | June 26, 2013 at 06:57 - "The polar jet is operating in such a strange manner it looks like a subtropical jet has moved into the 35-60N latitude and another jet (polar)? is trying to establish itself north of 70' with cutoff lows spinning in multiple vortices all over the globe and eruptions of high pressure peaks in the northern jet expanding into the arctic. Is this a new regime of climate?" Looks like it. Well observed. Presently the Greenwich sector of the hemisphere is acting fairly normal, the rest of the hemisphere is fubar particularly on the Alaskan/Siberian side.
Mignonette, simple misunderstanding, sorry for that. I´m obsessed with pancaking of the large ´toast´ part (R. Gates, 01:38 today) of the Arctic ice, meantime the zones with melting ponds I'm not reckoning with at all (anymore): they're toast anyway. I thought we were discussing /A-Team | June 17, 2013 at 23:22/ which contains this question: "Let's take another poll: tell us what you think these two are showing, then remind us of your estimate." I think R. Gates just answered that one.
Fufufunknknk, 32 years level 3 from the start :) The first quarter century was quite boring...
Hans, are you serious about 'groupthink' referring to a group that just grew from 3 or so to 4 or so? Forget it - or please show how e.g. A-Team suffers from groupthink. Look for yourself. Like anyone you too can see how 2013 will smash through everything in 2012 like this week or next the latest.
Esteemed climate scientist (and meteorologist) :) Fig. 3 really struck me. Looking at the Atlantic regime particularly I read therein that zonal years are better for the ice than are 'blocked' years. This was actually known in small circles by the 1980's, but I've not seen real confirmation like this before. What was not well known back then was the role of cloud cover as provide by cyclones. But blocking events obviously send batches of heat far into the Arctic, which melt ice or inhibit freezing. This is especially interesting today as blocking events seem to become more common, more vigourous and more persistent. But then we might be looking at another example of Arctic Amplification.
Toggle Commented Jun 18, 2013 on On persistent cyclones at Arctic Sea Ice
Mignonette, I do not use the graphs or single days to arrive at an estimate for the minima. However I do use them, in combination with the state of the ice and meteorological conditions, as sign & symptom. I also do not extrapolate from previous years (or if I do, I do so with Wipneus' exponential curve on Piomas (yep) ending in zero by 2015). The state of the ice and meteo suggest we are in for a good number of even worse drops, possibly far worse. And I am reckoning even more than earlier this year with the almost total wipe out this year, only excepting the pushed up zone off part of the CAA and Greenland. I am also daily more surprised at the underestimation of current events even by many profs.
What's the greatest drop in sea ice area (CT) ever? And the greatest increase of negative anomaly? Seems yesterday was a candidate.
2.0 M. I don't want to win my bet on WUWT just yet... (at 1.5M, and time to 2015).
After the Crack Event this spring, those cracks (not calling them 'polynya' anymore?) got a new overcast of ice. This probably prevented a number of them closing up again and I've been thinking they may have helped with some area. I'd imagine at least something is known about ice on frozen polynya. I would imagine that those not too broad could get ice thickness comparable to surroundings rather quickly. Otoh perhaps these zones remain thin for a long time due to water dynamics in their vicinity. Don't know.
Toggle Commented Jun 14, 2013 on Yamal to the rescue at Arctic Sea Ice
Mignonette, forget it. That low will spread out the ice from the unique slush street that is over the entire Greenwich/180° now while the ice pushed to the continental coasts will be absolutely blowtorched as an almost unprecedented (scale, amplitude AND time) heat wave washes over Alaska op north starting just about today. T850 Anchorage: http://plaatjesdump.nl/upload/4af089ac76965e3900194c79f0a77bff.png and Barrow: http://plaatjesdump.nl/upload/f35ad139dbb1c554a34adfc4c16050a4.png The entire NH atmosphere seems to have opened total war on the Arctic. Like I said earlier, if you want the wipe out this year with means that are still limited, this is the way to do it! You spread the centre ice to the hot continents for destruction there and let the sun take leisurely care of the rest.
Kevin, a Polar Low, sometimes nicknamed 'Arctic Hurricane', is a totally different object. It is actually a warm-core, circle symmetric convective disturbance to be found where a deep, very cold airflow rushes over a body of much warmer sea water. It actually resembles tropical cyclones in dynamics and small size. Polar Lows do not form over sea ice (or land)! The arctic cyclone proper is indeed a cold core system. It resembles a cut-off lower- and upper air low of lower latitudes in that it is also largely devoid of baroclinicity, read fronts. Here ends what I can say about that thing from my meteorological background... I don't understand it's resilience, other than from normal resilience of cut-off lows (the kind of thing that actually led to the recent drowning of part of Europe).
Surprised at some conservative estimates here. We are not going to merely beat 2012, we are going to obliterate 2012. If anyone wished for the total wipe out with still limited means this is the way to do it: spread out the ice from the centre to the warm continents for destruction there and leave the centre to the sun.
Speculations galore. Wild one on sweet water from Greenland ice melt by Robertscribbler, but 500 Gt is truly massive. What is it compared to river flux from Siberia and Alaska? I have a wild thought too. I'm wrestling with the idea that Crack in fact might be Good for You. Maybe the curious cracking events in late winter have led to spread with those broad polynyas freezing over. Then a fairly cold Arctic spring en now albedo is holding things fast. I do feel there is a bad mistake in my reasoning here. Anyway, volume is not in thickness but in area this time. What I expect this summer is the by far greatest single vertical drop in sea ice area ever witnessed. Catastrophe, mathematically meant. Area can hold out precisely until overall thinning has reached a threshold. The lot may still vanish this September. Wild speculations.
Toggle Commented Jun 5, 2013 on PIOMAS June 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice