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Remko Kampen
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"... that confrontational approaches to dialog only harden people's positions and do not lead to effective change." Heard that one to tiresomely many times. Grab your chance now and analyse the opposite for me. How did polite approach work? How did Al Gore do? My conclusion is years old already. Only confrontation teaches the lesson, though even then its hard. But nothing helps better than a Sandy or a millenium flooding (this time, North Carolina). Even then thick skull remain thick. If nothing else is to be had from a public that will Dunning-Kruger with pride all the time, then it's amusement. So confront & kick and enjoy while the mayhem increases everywhere. It's really fun to go 'Burn!' adressed at the people of SE Australia while they burn once more, just early at the hottest start of October ever. They helped Abbott to office, I say ha ha, burn! Because there's nothing else to be had from it.
Losing faith in the PIOMAS output. I can't see very well why this year's volume wouldn't simply be the lowest. I'll bet Nanuk knows.
Toggle Commented Sep 11, 2015 on PIOMAS September 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Meantime's climate revisionist's strategies focus on 'the numbers are fudged' or, well, El Niño 'so of course it's a hot year' never mind past Niño years that weren't that hot - they conceal trends which looks stupid to us but is simply smart because they are believed.
Toggle Commented Aug 21, 2015 on ASI 2015 update 6: one more high at Arctic Sea Ice
Better not bet on that, NeilT. Climate revisionism is already preparing for another 'hiatus' because of this year. And, of course, 'Ice Age cometh', the latter meme will revive hugely by November. And it still works perfectly. This year some more governments got couped by fossil fuel industry. Spain, who actually punishes solar panel use. Holland, where percentage renebables is less than half the EU average and dropped second year in a row. Canada, burning books. Ireland, who just got a secretary of energy/climate who works for Shell and is actively killing renewable initiatives there, subsidies down the drain. Australia whose subsidies to Abbott of Big Coal amount to almost 2% of Australian GDP this year. Forget it - gloat when Florida gets removed from the map thru SLR plus hurricane, because that kind of thing is the planet's only chance now.
Toggle Commented Aug 21, 2015 on ASI 2015 update 6: one more high at Arctic Sea Ice
"I try not to get too worked up about exact positions" - We shouldn't, because margin of error with those numbers is considerable and in part even unknown. But its what we have and what we compare years/days with. Main thing that can be said is that 2015 is one of the worst, though (not yet) one of the very worst years, and that there is not the tiniest sign the 'Arctic Death Spiral' is in 'hiatus' let alone rebound.
Toggle Commented Aug 14, 2015 on A wetter and warmer Arctic at Arctic Sea Ice
"Let's avoid at all costs sheer speculations - it only feeds the deniers' lusts." I don't give a damn about the thugs or their lusts. I will NOT change anything in my life or my speech for them. SIA per yesterday down to #3 position. The state of what's left in large part to rotten to evade a #1 melt-out year imo - things are moving very fast. NW passage open within days. Don't speculate, see it happen. Btw, the melting season ends second half of September (in principal), not by the end of the first week of the month like we were used to.
Toggle Commented Aug 14, 2015 on A wetter and warmer Arctic at Arctic Sea Ice
"No doubt on track to be one of the 5th lowest areas on record this year." 3rd, no doubt. 1st, very well possible indeed.
Toggle Commented Aug 14, 2015 on A wetter and warmer Arctic at Arctic Sea Ice
"... wondering for some time what the future of the NH polar plus mid-latitude cells will be. Particularly, are there any hints from climate models? Will the atmospheric circulation cells switch to an asymmetric pattern? Might it then possibly get slightly colder in Europe, when (if) polar and mid-latitude cells "merge"?" (Martin Gisser 18:20 31st) - Wondering, too. I thought of two changes based on recent years (as of summer 2006): a kind of spread of the northern part of the subtropical semipermanent high pressure zones to very high latitudes, leading to very large area's filled with very shallow high's and cool spots, not much general movement to them; - Weakening of circumpolar jet leading to strange mergers with the subtropical jet _or_ strange, very northerly latitudes for other parts of that jet. But I'm questioning all of this, moreover the recent AMOC behaviour w/ the cool spot south of Greenland is complicating everything again. This seems te (re-)create a strong jet at a remarkably low latitude, sending this summer some intense lows to the North Sea countries, or see the Somerset Flood pattern. - Climate models, not that I know of they depict things like this that actually belong to meteorology. - 'Assymetric pattern', you mean: a-zonal? With temp gradient tropics-arctic zonality will remain, but the normal chain of lows/highs circumventing the pole (at least over the oceans) seems to stall sometimes, leaving a kind of bubbly appearance to NH synopsis charts. Movement of all these systems sometimes seems to stall entirely. Presently not the slightest of hints of any cooling anywhere in Europe. Contrary, vastly contrary. If we could get a chronic 'Azores high' to lie west of Scotland in summer and over Scandinavia in winter time then we'd get a cool year. But CC has gone where circumstances really need perfection to get cooler than normal weeks (mid-August 2014 and spring 2013 be examples) while, by way of a saying, 'a day of more or less southerly winds has temps hang into record boundaries already' (in Europe at least). In fact by second half of this week another central European heatwave of non too perfect make-up will send temps up to near record values for the second time in six weeks.
Toggle Commented Aug 3, 2015 on ASI 2015 update 5: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
"B. Water consumption on the US west coast has sky-rocketed." John Christensen, please realize this is irrelevent. It does not affect raw precipitation numbers. Climate change is about those raw numbers. It does, of course, aggravate existing water resources mismanagement but such aggravating is never a measure for CC itself.
Toggle Commented Aug 3, 2015 on ASI 2015 update 5: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
wayne, AO is kind of a magic number for some. While it is caused it is brought up as some first causer, as something of a driver or something. I've seen that thinking more often. Baffles me. AO is an index, it is an aggregrate number/statistic that indicates the state of some aspects of something; it is the latter that should be studied, not the AO itself. That index could indicate there is something worth studying, that is just about all. There are some drawbacks to the index too, firstly: it is but an extremely rough number for indicating pressure pattern, secondly it is a take of only a fairly small section of a hemispheric whole system. In the end, diminishing Arctic ice, the great Greenland melt resulting in the cool pool south of Greenland are drivers that could influence the AO in special ways, or otoh they might not (if circumpolar does not exhibit changing wavenumber or -amplitude but only changing propagation velocity of waves, weather effects could be profound but the AO may show nothing special at all and presently that seems to be closest to the actual case).
Toggle Commented Jul 31, 2015 on ASI 2015 update 5: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
"If extraordinary weather patterns was a new phenomenon in California" - which I never said. "... then the RRR would be a great example of the climate being based on new mechanics/principle" Why? You wouldn't be suggesting that either: - Classical mechanics dictate the dynamics of planetary waves is independent from things like Arctic Amplication or - Arctic Amplification doesn't exist? Seriously, what physics re propagation of planetary waves is challenged here? I saw 'Stuck Pattern Syndrom' happening in my own lab experiments as a beginning student in 1990, and measured their tempgradient dependence, and also - different parameter - dependencies of wave number on both abs temp and temp gradient! Your list contains single years. But if you are looking for a 'Stuck' like the RRR, you will have to finds groups of like years, e.g. 2011 until and including 2015. So: was 1898 just a single very dry year, or was it member of a stretch of 3-5 years that each were (almost) as dry? Was 1909 just a single wet year, or a member of 3-5 years in a row that each were (almost) as wet? Primer is the 2011 Hansen/Sato/Ruedy paper linked to here (pdf): . More on this: . In this article the 2007 example (incidentally the warmest winter for Western Europe sinds the alfabet or before) is long surpassed by recent winters, of which the one flooding Somerset is the starkest example. But last winter was, though weatherwise 'flatter', even more stuck. Both winters featured two circulation patterns instead of one of two dozen... Atlantic hard west into Russia, or Atlantic hard west against a Scandi high made for an incredibly boring winter, mild but never far from average, no extremes. That regime ran over the entire spring as well ('coincidentally' just like the RRR mostly did). This shows that a stuck pattern may not at all give rise to any extreme at all, but just to an extremely prolonged period of same weather. The 'Somerset' winter was #2 tempwise since or before the alfabet and also showed a strangely flat temperature curve. Not so on the other side of the Ocean of course, what with the RRR and its companion falsely dubbed the 'Polar Vortex'. If you live at mid- or high latitude then you are an actual witness. On increase of average duration of any circulationtype see pp 39 onwards in,d.ZGU . (pdf)
Toggle Commented Jul 31, 2015 on ASI 2015 update 5: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
John - 'Stuck Pattern Syndrome' is not at all about waviness, but about progression of planetary (Rossby) waves. Think of the 'Ridiculously Resilient Ridge', for just one instance of the demiglobal phenomenon. "... where references point out that it is not unusual for a cyclone to persist in the Arctic Basin during the summer period" Show me a persistent cyclone in that region, please. You know, just show me the Arctic circumpolar vortex... . "... the weakening and waviness of the jet stream could not have been a result of the change in the AO index" Of course not. The AO index is a number, not a 'cause' of anything. To paraphrase your remark, Francis would have to show that the waviness of the circumpolar jet is caused by its waviness, say. "please read the excellent blog entry by Neven "On persistent cyclones" .... Please read a comment of mine below that article, also move back some articles on that matter and find some comments. This to say, let's say, I'm quite with y'all on the matter. But quite! Now this is not unusual (took a date from Neven's "On persistent cyclones") - Just a normal Scandi blocking, in fact. But this, e.g. today, is NEW, it is NOT a blocking AND it is NOT a west-circulation so wtf is it; and it is pathological, because it is no longer a transient circulation but something that as of Sandy is seen to be quite fixed for ever more days/weeks per year: . Like the EN/SO the AO is completely irrelevant to general trends of global temp or Arctic ice destruction. "Conventional theory would argue that the pattern and strength of the jet stream is tightly related to the relative strength of high and low pressure in the Arctic region" They are so tightly related as to be effectively the exact same phenomenon (this would be: conventional meteorology). The point is both, or rather simply the whole, is governed by temperature differences below and aloft between tropic and Arctic. There a simple lab experiments that can also be done in your kitchen where you can test 'Arctic Amplification' etc galore.
Toggle Commented Jul 31, 2015 on ASI 2015 update 5: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
Another new phenomenon:
Toggle Commented Jul 30, 2015 on ASI 2015 update 5: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
"surrounded by high pressure from all sides" - the circumpolar band about 65 tot 70° N. A completely new phenomenon, I've seen it first during Hurricane Sandy which by it made a unique and devastating track. It's something that didn't occur before (eat your heart on an archive like this: ). It is no normal blocking situation because it is essentially a zonal pattern. It has dumped a quarter century of North Atlantic meteorological experience for me. I have to contend with completely new weather charts exhibiting completely new dynamics. It is part of the 'Stuck Pattern Syndrome', the stall of planetary waves described by e.g. Jennifer Francis, caused by Arctic Amplification. The six EC charts Neven posted show this pathological freeze-up of summer circulation.
Toggle Commented Jul 30, 2015 on ASI 2015 update 5: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
Terrible news, Arctic researchers Philip de Roo and Marc Cornelissen - - probably drowned.
Toggle Commented Apr 30, 2015 on EGU 2015, my impressions at Arctic Sea Ice
Climate revisionist troll there with all the typical sillies. Kick out please.
Toggle Commented Apr 2, 2015 on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
Downward trend continues this not being indicative of anything in particular - did Florida just annex this blog?
Toggle Commented Mar 25, 2015 on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
"... how is it possible that 2014 will probably come in among the warmest" It will. November and December have to rank only tenth, but will probably both go for gold. The 'pause' refers to the pause in non-recordbreaking months. Annex the language and turn it back on the plunder ideologists.
Toggle Commented Nov 5, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
"I've never seen anything to disbelieve that simple graph" - explains the ignorance. Bad eyesight. Cincinnatus should kindly ask others to see for him, instead of projecting ire over his handicap. Wot cooling.
"Here is the temperatures for Norway, by the way." said one Ostepop1000. Well, we decided to not go to this country in summer anymore. Last year was already bad but this year was unbearable. Entire forests are dying or have already died from the crazy drought and heat. Sun doesn't set at night. No airco. Be my guest, try it.
Toggle Commented Sep 10, 2014 on PIOMAS September 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Right, Jim, I realized those complexities from the text and decided not to expand on that for my short explanation to Bill. Arctic sea must be the murkiest place to measure anything on the planet :) Last year's surprise has me actually withholding participation on any minimum extent poll this year. I'll remain waiting for the wipe-out, which will apparently also be a big surprise when it happens; me I can only hope it doesn't happen before next year (I've postulated the wipe-out in 2004 at +12 to +15 years, never saw reason to revise this estimate).
Hi Bill, follow the link - x-axis is explained below the chart in there: "The x-axis of the graph shows the thermistor number. Number 1 on the left is in the air above the sea ice, to start with at least. The last one on the right (28 in this case) is in the water below the ice. In the absence of further information the ones in between are open to interpretation, but they are nominally 10 cm apart." The dots correspond to specific sensors of which apparently some thirty are located vertically spaced at 10 cm per buoy.
Jai 's been "... documenting some of the very strange patterns I have witnessed in the forum here" - great job, that thread into daily check by me now.
Toggle Commented May 30, 2014 on Greenland 2013 in review at Arctic Sea Ice
Dan said I've been looking at the NH Jet Stream for a while now, and it's looking quite ill. So it is. Smeared out subtrop high first seen in July 2006. Then, the Sandy block. Now, this sickening pattern - I mean that, I feel queasier by the week looking at forecast charts or any synoptic of the day - seems to become normal. Some remarks on this I made here: at Remko Kampen | May 16, 2014 at 11:51 and Remko Kampen | May 18, 2014 at 18:31 . Stuck circulation patterns. Results are dire and include e.g. the Balkan floods of last week.
Toggle Commented May 30, 2014 on Greenland 2013 in review at Arctic Sea Ice
Chris, on that German text. In short, a long time ago German climatologist Franz Baur devised a categorisation for North-Atlantic circulation types. They number 24 plus a bucket for 'transitionary' flows. Then, there is a statistic as of 1900, daily. Notes: - Such a pattern on average used to exist for 3-4 days. - A transient pattern, however, 1-2 days. - There is no relation whatsoever between two successive patterns. In the 2010 report, find Fig. 12, showing the increasing trend in 'stuckness' of patterns (any). While the graph there seems to taper down a bit, the effect has nevertheless increased since. But in 2010, the Newfoundland-Greenlandblock didn't take existence time like it does today. The article, and the original catalog, doesn't mention it as a specific pattern. This may be explained partly for its rareness and the fact that the catalog tried to be relevant for Europe, rendering such a 'Sandy block' into different patterns depending on the location and length of the trough to its east (Germany could get both northwesterly and southerly air flows from it and they are considered widely different patterns). Better leaf through all and sundry in the charts archive, methinx. I know a lot of them but confess I didn't go through absolutely every summer's day.
Toggle Commented May 18, 2014 on PIOMAS May 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice