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Kate
Sydney Australia
Recent Activity
@Ostepop, if I had the money that would be an awesome cruise, stuck or not :)
@Ostepop The current wind pattern, carrying large amounts of smoke, is not being kind to your prediction. I hope the link shows you what I'm seeing http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-46.75,75.76,512
That's a lot of dark matter :(
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
Speaking of smoke and soot, the latest sat pics from west coast Greenland are looking a little dark. Is that what I think it is? http://www.dmi.dk/fileadmin/SatelliteArctic/Disko/20140723TERR.jpg
Toggle Commented 6 days ago on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
I agree @George I think a big melt is on the cards. Lots of warm air, currents are right to impact outlying ice, around the entire Arctic. The highs and lows are feeding in relatively warm air ( at all levels by the looks of things ). The next week will be important. The push ( wind/currents) ATM is dividing the remaining ice into two halves. Both halves are being eroded on the coasts and I do believe soon from within the pack.
I wonder which will come first Climate change killing millions each year or The lack of viable antibiotics killing millions each year ah, choices choices so many choices
Toggle Commented Dec 5, 2013 on In memoriam: Albert A. Bartlett at Arctic Sea Ice
Super Typhoon Haiyan dispersed an awful lot of heat very quickly. Typhoons/cyclones are the only very fast way of moving heat between ocean, land and atmosphere aren't they?
My gut feeling is that PIOMAS is going to bottom out earlier than usual this year. Northern ocean areas are very warm, the ice is weak and vulnerable. There's been a significant increase in pollution carried from continental Asia up north and the jet stream is wobbling :(
Toggle Commented Nov 7, 2013 on PIOMAS October 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Yes, I'm eating crow pie :) I sort of wish it wasn't so. I honestly don't think anything positive will happen until the first ice free summer and then people will notice. I know it will be too late but maybe regulation then will seem like a good idea. It's getting cold up there, it will be a big year extend wise but it really is like watching a goldfish's last gasps as it lays on the shag-pile carpet.
Neven, you are so right. The Arctic needs more remote sensing, more on-site resources. What it needs is a billionaire! Forget politics, the arctic needs a benefactor. Forget trying to change world opinion; all this needs is someone with the right connections to get science done. Musk, Gates, Buffett whoever... Your blog is going global, use this new influence...what do you think?
@ Dan - and the media agenda is dictated by the Murdoch press - we only have 1 national newspaper, and it's Murdoch's! OK, yes he does own newspapers but more and more the average person doesn't use newspapers 100% of the time, it's social media that is more important ( Twitter, facebook, blogs etc ) and you might want to read this article because Murdoch is out of touch and thus not very effective at shifting the debate either politically or socially http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-12/chen-media-influence-in-election-campaigns/4879730
Toggle Commented Aug 15, 2013 on Perception of the Arctic 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
@Bob Hmm, as an Aussie I'd say you're wrong on so many levels it's not funny, and as a contributor to this blog I'd say very little of what you know is true. Australia sells coal and yes we use it. But we also have a carbon tax ( which will be a trading scheme if Labor gets in and nothing if the Libs get in ). Pray for a Rudd government Murdoch owns some of the press, but his influence is actually quite small in Aust. I think you're thinking of the US, which is the media he IS trying to influence. Climate change in Australia is not wholly bad. Many areas in the north will become better at food production ie northern NT and central QLD. I think we are also prepared to change agricultural practises far more than other countries. For example our cotton farmers are moving to hemp. Our solar industry is strong and will get better. We have government schemes for solar panels and very good prices when households feed back into the grid. Australia is certainly not the most vulnerable country. You might be thinking of Bangladesh, or the islands in the Pacific, or even central US ( which relies on the tropical wave from Africa being stable and persistent ). So no, we have faced the truth and are probably better poised than most countries to spend money on solutions. We didn't collapse during the GFC if you recall.
Toggle Commented Aug 14, 2013 on Perception of the Arctic 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
@Gerhard "In August is the time of basal melt" Is that trend due to SST?
Toggle Commented Aug 11, 2013 on Third storm at Arctic Sea Ice
The ice is behaving like mushed up flotsam! A think the ice will continue to melt past the normal time we think and these storms will just keep cropping up.
Toggle Commented Aug 10, 2013 on Third storm at Arctic Sea Ice
What happens to the ice when the smoke from all the fires in Russia gets added to the mix? EOSDIS Worldview is showing a strong feeder band from Russia and it will get sucked into the storm, over very thin ice.
Toggle Commented Aug 8, 2013 on Third storm at Arctic Sea Ice
I had a quick look at the SST anomaly figures at Wunderground. Very high anomaly around GL http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
Toggle Commented Aug 3, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
Yes, the extend is up, spreading out the mushy ice pack. But I still maintain it will be a very low year. I realise the sun is leaving and the clouds have been helpful but I'm looking at the import of air over the next few weeks - it will include heatwave air from China, smoke/warm air from Russia and heatwave air from southern Europe. All these sources feed into the arctic more or less of a period of a week - some quicker, some slower. Certainly though by mid Aug we'll know if the spreading was helpful or not. I'm waiting till then.
This image shows smoke being fed into the latest circulation around the basin. Not sure how this will affect the ice and not sure if the link will work, but think Russian coast! http://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?map=-1893024,-360448,3349856,3321856&products=baselayers,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor~overlays,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2013-08-01&switch=arctic
Toggle Commented Aug 1, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
And there is a new circulation in the CAB :/
Grief, the clouds around GL right now are looking awesome! The cyclonic pattern is so clear, and strong. It's really pretty. And I dare say carrying warm humid air from the US. I would love to see a huge chunk of ice carve itself from GL. The latest sat pics of the east coast show huge long trailing melt ponds that must be affecting glacial flow rate. The effect of all this will hit us in the near future. If the rate of warming is what we think it is, we will see physical changes, that would normally be seen over centuries, in the space of years.
@Neven "ending in second place" what if...instead of day 261 being the melt end date like 2012, the end date was say 270? What would happen then?
Toggle Commented Jul 27, 2013 on Second storm at Arctic Sea Ice
Sorry Neven :( I love gardening too! good luck
Toggle Commented Jul 27, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
btw, new storm near Laptev, caused by the heat in Russia. Could become very troublesome in the days to come.
Toggle Commented Jul 27, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
In the latest image of SST from Wunderground, you can see two bright blue lines coming from the SW of GL. That's warm melt water from the ice cap isn't it? http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
Toggle Commented Jul 27, 2013 on Second storm at Arctic Sea Ice
And the position of the system tonight is such that it will be drawing warm air across GL north, sucking warmer air from the US as it does so ( more melt for GL in the next day or so for sure ) Also, the winds around Ellesmere and Lincoln/Morris Jesup sat areas of GL are going to come from the south, shifting the hard ice out from land ( over the next few days at least ). With the direction of spin and ice flow this is going to push the last of the MYI into the danger zones, and all the mushy ice that was sitting at the NP. When I look at the CT images, there is very little 'purple' left, no hard ice at all. With spin, temps, wind and uplifting of warm water from the deep I don't think there will be any 100% ice left in a couple of weeks, or even days!
Toggle Commented Jul 27, 2013 on Second storm at Arctic Sea Ice