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L. Hamilton
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So, should we do an ASIB poll as a contribution to the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook this month? Or leave well enough alone?
"Sea Ice Prediction has Easy and Difficult Years" is a sequel to our SEARCH SIO meta-analysis that came out in Geophysical Research Letters earlier this year. The sequel (an article for Witness the Arctic) looks at outcomes from two well-informed office pools that tried to predict September ice extent. http://www.arcus.org/witness-the-arctic/2014/2/article/21066
Also of possible interest -- the SIPN webcasts include results from a meta-analysis of SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook predictions from 2008-2013. Starts at 34:00 in this video of the first morning's presentations in Boulder: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=wLzGABwoNK4#t=2041 Neven posted about this SIO meta-analysis in March, http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/03/forecast-me-not.html It's published in Geophysical Research Letters, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059388/abstract Write me if you'd like a copy of the paper.
Toggle Commented May 20, 2014 on SIPN presentation at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven did a fine job presenting the blog at this workshop; many people were intrigued. In later sessions at the workshop, I was able to share some of the blog comments that were already being posted by ASIB folks watching the webcast.
Toggle Commented May 14, 2014 on SIPN presentation at Arctic Sea Ice
I understand that today's webcast will be archived and available for later viewing. I'll post the link here when I have one.
Toggle Commented Apr 1, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
Off topic but possibly of use to some of you: NOAA just updated their Ocean Heat Content time series, which are now complete through 2013. I drew a couple of graphs showing the full series (quarterly and annual values) from 1955 to 2013. The annual values, in particular, give a different look than NOAA's standard graphs, and tell quite a story. 0-2000 meters: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/OHC_2an.png 0-700 meters: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/OHC_7an.png
Toggle Commented Jan 21, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
As a data analyst I am sometimes asked to 'bucket' data for marketing and management analysis, and often graph the buckets by popularity. Are big ice years getting more popular or is small ice the trend? I haven't tried it but I'd guess five buckets would do the job. Mike, can you suggest an example of what this might look like?
But returning to the topic of Neven's post, I'd like to see more data available as CSVs or something similar; there are a number of products online for which typical home computers don't have appropriate software. (It would be great, for us duffers, to be able to us non-specialist software like Excel--a lot of us will never be reasonably justified in acquiring and learning R.) Thanks, Connie, I've been thinking along csv lines too -- it should be a simple fix for most sites. Do you have particular examples in mind?
How might Arctic data, such as the iconic datasets followed so closely on this blog, be made easier to access and use? In connection with a new project called the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), I’d like to collect your suggestions and pass them along to Arctic researchers. Arctic Sea... Continue reading
Posted Dec 8, 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
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It's off to a slow start but the story might gain more traction. The Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/nov/13/global-warming-underestimated-by-half Science Daily, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/11/131113092217.htm
Toggle Commented Nov 14, 2013 on The 'hiatus' and the Arctic at Arctic Sea Ice
In case anyone is interested, I updated the long-term bar graphs showing minimum PIOMAS volume 1979-2013: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/2013_sea_ice_PIOMAS_min.png minimum Arctic and Antarctic sea ice 1979-2013: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/2013_sea_ice_CT_min.png and September mean Arctic sea ice extent. Note that this extent series includes my own estimates (which are similar to those used in the Uni Bremen time series) going back to 1972: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/2013_sea_ice_NSIDC_extended.png
Toggle Commented Nov 9, 2013 on PIOMAS October 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Forgot to note why I mentioned the Colorado floods in this thread: that's the reason NSIDC has been down today. They are in Boulder which has been hard hit by the flooding. Major roads in the region have been cut, and some smaller towns evacuated. Don't know how this affects NSIDC, but the University of Colorado nearby reports many flooded buildings.
Toggle Commented Sep 13, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
The massive flooding in Colorado, variously described now as 100-year, 500-year or "Biblical" results from a low-pressure system stalled over the area this week. No proof that a single event reflects climate change of course, but this one fits the pattern of changes toward more persistent mid-latitude NH weather that Jenifer Francis and others have described as a consequence of Arctic warming.
Toggle Commented Sep 13, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Analyzing survey data, it's a point of interest not just whether something has changed, but for whom.
Toggle Commented Sep 9, 2013 on IPCC crisis meeting at Arctic Sea Ice
Work by Larry Hamilton demonstrates how fake skeptics who cried 'recovery' from 2008-2010 still has some folks thinking that Arctic sea ice is recovering. The paper Neven refers to describes our carefully-worded survey question about Arctic sea ice, which has been asked on four surveys to date: "Which of the following three statements do you think is more accurate? Over the past few years, the ice on the Arctic Ocean in late summer ... * Covers less area than it did 30 years ago. * Declined but then recovered to about the same area it had 30 years ago. * Covers more area than it did 30 years ago." We'll be asking this question on a new survey in mid-October, watching for possible change in the percentage who think that late-summer sea ice has recovered to the area it had 30 years ago.
Toggle Commented Sep 9, 2013 on IPCC crisis meeting at Arctic Sea Ice
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In mid-July through early August, participants on the Arctic Sea Ice (ASI) blog posted 66 individual predictions for the mean NSIDC September Arctic sea ice extent. The median value of these 66 predictions is 3.6 million km2, with an interquartile range (approximately the middle 50%) from 2.92 to 4.28 million... Continue reading
Posted Aug 28, 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
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I doubt the arctic is really changing anyone's mind, an that the "huge majority" that buys into the jetstream theory is just the same bunch that already thought AGW was a serious problem. There is overlap but these are not the same groups (we checked). The Arctic/weather group is larger than those who believe in anthropogenic climate change; it includes many who concede climate is changing, although mainly for natural reasons. Because of this, the Arctic/warming responses were less politically polarized than a question attributing human or natural causes to climate change.
Toggle Commented Aug 14, 2013 on Perception of the Arctic 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Where is the consistency? The temperature effect on survey responses is funny but I see two hopeful signs in these in these results: 1. The great majority (89%) believe that if the Arctic warms in the future, that will affect the weather where they live. Most scientists would agree even if they don't agree on the details. For the public, this suggests some degree of global awareness -- what happens in the far-away Arctic has implications for them too. 2. The curvilinear temperature effect (right graph at the link below) stays around 60% at average temperatures, but goes higher if temperatures on the interview day were some degrees above or below normal. This unexpected result seems to unscientifically reflect the science and media discussion of Arctic effects on mid-latitude extremes -- a more complex concept than simply expecting warming to cause warming. The latter misconception was a topic of denialist hilarity in the snowy winter of 2011, but maybe won't work as well next time. http://www.unh.edu/news/img/NH_arcweath2.jpg
Toggle Commented Aug 14, 2013 on Perception of the Arctic 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks for the note, Neven. As some of you know, this is part of ongoing research on what the public knows and believes about polar regions. A key finding here is the nonlinear effect of temperature on beliefs: people are more likely to believe in "major effects" if they are interviewed on unseasonably hot or cold days. Which oddly mirrors scientific discussion about Arctic warming and mid-latitude extremes. Send me a note if you'd like a copy of the IJOC paper itself.
Toggle Commented Aug 13, 2013 on Perception of the Arctic 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Skeptical Science has posted this good story as well: http://www.skepticalscience.com/armchair-scientist-neven.html
I'll keep the polls open through Friday if anyone has a late guess or revision. I'll summarize our results in a post early next month. Although I'm focusing initially on the numbers, rationales are getting archived too, and will be part of a more detailed analysis this fall. They've been noticed by at least a few scientists.
Are scientists conservative about sea ice? That could be an empirical question, I think. My crowd-source posts here point toward one way we might ask it, by comparing sea ice predictions of scientists with real sea ice but also with each other, and with the predictions made by non-scientists such as participants in this blog -- as all of us learn from the world. This year's data certainly will not be definitive, but by October they should give some new perspective. In the meantime, I'd encourage anyone who has ideas about this year's ice to post their own numerical predictions to the Crowd Source thread -- for NSIDC mean September extent, in the first line of your post. http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/07/foo.html
The "Arctic warming and your weather" research that Neven introduced above has just been published (online first) in the International Journal of Climatology. The abstract is below; send me a note if you'd like a copy of the paper. Hamilton, LC and M Lemcke-Stampone. 2013. "Arctic warming and your weather: Public belief in the connection." International Journal of Climatology DOI: 10.1002/joc.3796 Will Arctic warming affect mid-latitude weather? Many researchers think so, and have addressed this question through scientific articles and news media. Much of the public accepts such a connection as well. Across three New Hampshire surveys with more than 1500 interviews, 60% of respondents say they think future Arctic warming would have major effects on their weather. Arctic/weather responses changed little after Superstorm Sandy brushed the region, but exhibit consistently strong partisan divisions that grow wider with education. Belief in an Arctic/weather connection also varies, in a nonlinear pattern, with the temperature anomaly around day of interview. Interviewed on unseasonably warm or cool days, respondents are more likely to think that Arctic warming would have major effects on their weather. This unscientific response seems to mirror the scientific discussion about extremes. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3796/abstract
Toggle Commented Jul 28, 2013 on Perception of the Arctic at Arctic Sea Ice
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In mid-June through early July, participants on the Arctic Sea Ice (ASI) blog posted 82 individual predictions for the mean NSIDC September Arctic sea ice extent. The median value of these 82 predictions was 3.2 million km2, with an interquartile range (approximately the middle 50% of predictions) from 2.7 to... Continue reading
Posted Jul 13, 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
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"In June through early July, participants in the Arctic Sea Ice blog posted 82 individual predictions for the mean NSIDC September Arctic sea ice extent. The median value of these 82 predictions was 3.2 million km2, with an interquartile range (approximately the middle 50% of predictions) from 2.7 to 3.9 million km2." Sent to SEARCH for the July SIO, along with a rationale saying a bit more about the experiment. I'll write an analytical post here next week once we have the official SEARCH data for comparison. In the meantime here is the distribution of July predictions from this blog. They ranged from 0 to 5.6: Stem-and-leaf plot for asi_blog (Predicted September mean sea ice extent, million km^2) asi_blog rounded to nearest multiple of .1 plot in units of .1 0* | 03 0. | 89 1* | 1 1. | 7888 2* | 0002233 2. | 555678888888889999 3* | 000001222333334 3. | 5566888888889 4* | 0011233333444 4. | 55557 5* | 0 5. | 6