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L. Hamilton
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Our survey research on the politicization of US public science/environment perceptions, including Arctic sea ice, hit the streets last week and has been written up with key graphics by Chris Mooney at the Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/12/02/tea-partiers-and-traditional-republicans-are-split-on-science/ The paper itself will be open access for the next month or so, you can download a copy here: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09644016.2014.976485#.VH9EZ8miFpu I'll have more polar results to report at the AGU meetings in a couple of weeks.
A bar graph showing annual minimum PIOMAS volume, updated through 2014, can be found here: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/2014_sea_ice_PIOMAS_min.png
Toggle Commented Nov 10, 2014 on PIOMAS November 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
The Sea Level Research Group at University of Colorado has just updated their satellite-based sea level time series, through August 2014. Sea level is still rising, consistent with independent observations of ocean heat content and glacier/ice sheet attrition. A simple graph of the CU sea level series is here: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/sealevel_2014.png The Sea Level Research Group page has details: http://sealevel.colorado.edu/
Toggle Commented Nov 5, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
FWIW I'll be presenting some new survey research, building on earlier work that Neven wrote about: http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/04/perception-of-the-arctic.html The new stuff for AGU includes surveys of public knowledge & beliefs as recently as this month. It has a bland title and abstract in the program but the presentation could be spicier, "Polar facts in an age of polarization." This at a session with papers about the human impacts of Arctic Change, Monday afternoon. https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm14/meetingapp.cgi#Session/3708
Toggle Commented Oct 29, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Steve, this is a great idea. I'll be there and would be happy to help with introductions to SIPN and SEARCH folks if you'd like.
Toggle Commented Oct 29, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Regarding estimates of early-1970s September sea ice extent, I took a shot at this for the graph on this blog's long-term page, also here: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/2013_sea_ice_NSIDC_extended.png As noted within the graph, my 1972-78 values derive from Cavalieri et al. (2003), after regression adjustment to harmonize with 1979-2013 NSIDC values based on their years of overlap (1979-2002). FWIW the Uni Bremen extent series also extended back to 1972, with values quite similar to mine, so I suspect they used the same source.
Toggle Commented Sep 9, 2014 on PIOMAS September 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks, Jim. On my screen the images are slightly truncated at right, but click and you see the full series. Y'all are welcome to make use of these graphs if they're helpful.
Toggle Commented Aug 29, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 8: neck and neck at Arctic Sea Ice
Off topic for this thread but of wider interest, NOAA has just updated their global ocean heat and salt content data. http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/ I've updated the annual/three month graphs for 0-700 meters http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/OHC_7an.png and 0-2000 meters http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/OHC_2an.png
Toggle Commented Aug 29, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 8: neck and neck at Arctic Sea Ice
So, should we do an ASIB poll as a contribution to the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook this month? Or leave well enough alone?
"Sea Ice Prediction has Easy and Difficult Years" is a sequel to our SEARCH SIO meta-analysis that came out in Geophysical Research Letters earlier this year. The sequel (an article for Witness the Arctic) looks at outcomes from two well-informed office pools that tried to predict September ice extent. http://www.arcus.org/witness-the-arctic/2014/2/article/21066
Also of possible interest -- the SIPN webcasts include results from a meta-analysis of SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook predictions from 2008-2013. Starts at 34:00 in this video of the first morning's presentations in Boulder: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=wLzGABwoNK4#t=2041 Neven posted about this SIO meta-analysis in March, http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/03/forecast-me-not.html It's published in Geophysical Research Letters, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059388/abstract Write me if you'd like a copy of the paper.
Toggle Commented May 20, 2014 on SIPN presentation at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven did a fine job presenting the blog at this workshop; many people were intrigued. In later sessions at the workshop, I was able to share some of the blog comments that were already being posted by ASIB folks watching the webcast.
Toggle Commented May 14, 2014 on SIPN presentation at Arctic Sea Ice
I understand that today's webcast will be archived and available for later viewing. I'll post the link here when I have one.
Toggle Commented Apr 1, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
Off topic but possibly of use to some of you: NOAA just updated their Ocean Heat Content time series, which are now complete through 2013. I drew a couple of graphs showing the full series (quarterly and annual values) from 1955 to 2013. The annual values, in particular, give a different look than NOAA's standard graphs, and tell quite a story. 0-2000 meters: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/OHC_2an.png 0-700 meters: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/OHC_7an.png
Toggle Commented Jan 21, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
As a data analyst I am sometimes asked to 'bucket' data for marketing and management analysis, and often graph the buckets by popularity. Are big ice years getting more popular or is small ice the trend? I haven't tried it but I'd guess five buckets would do the job. Mike, can you suggest an example of what this might look like?
But returning to the topic of Neven's post, I'd like to see more data available as CSVs or something similar; there are a number of products online for which typical home computers don't have appropriate software. (It would be great, for us duffers, to be able to us non-specialist software like Excel--a lot of us will never be reasonably justified in acquiring and learning R.) Thanks, Connie, I've been thinking along csv lines too -- it should be a simple fix for most sites. Do you have particular examples in mind?
How might Arctic data, such as the iconic datasets followed so closely on this blog, be made easier to access and use? In connection with a new project called the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), I’d like to collect your suggestions and pass them along to Arctic researchers. Arctic Sea... Continue reading
Posted Dec 8, 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
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It's off to a slow start but the story might gain more traction. The Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/nov/13/global-warming-underestimated-by-half Science Daily, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/11/131113092217.htm
Toggle Commented Nov 14, 2013 on The 'hiatus' and the Arctic at Arctic Sea Ice
In case anyone is interested, I updated the long-term bar graphs showing minimum PIOMAS volume 1979-2013: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/2013_sea_ice_PIOMAS_min.png minimum Arctic and Antarctic sea ice 1979-2013: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/2013_sea_ice_CT_min.png and September mean Arctic sea ice extent. Note that this extent series includes my own estimates (which are similar to those used in the Uni Bremen time series) going back to 1972: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/2013_sea_ice_NSIDC_extended.png
Toggle Commented Nov 9, 2013 on PIOMAS October 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Forgot to note why I mentioned the Colorado floods in this thread: that's the reason NSIDC has been down today. They are in Boulder which has been hard hit by the flooding. Major roads in the region have been cut, and some smaller towns evacuated. Don't know how this affects NSIDC, but the University of Colorado nearby reports many flooded buildings.
Toggle Commented Sep 13, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
The massive flooding in Colorado, variously described now as 100-year, 500-year or "Biblical" results from a low-pressure system stalled over the area this week. No proof that a single event reflects climate change of course, but this one fits the pattern of changes toward more persistent mid-latitude NH weather that Jenifer Francis and others have described as a consequence of Arctic warming.
Toggle Commented Sep 13, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Analyzing survey data, it's a point of interest not just whether something has changed, but for whom.
Toggle Commented Sep 9, 2013 on IPCC crisis meeting at Arctic Sea Ice
Work by Larry Hamilton demonstrates how fake skeptics who cried 'recovery' from 2008-2010 still has some folks thinking that Arctic sea ice is recovering. The paper Neven refers to describes our carefully-worded survey question about Arctic sea ice, which has been asked on four surveys to date: "Which of the following three statements do you think is more accurate? Over the past few years, the ice on the Arctic Ocean in late summer ... * Covers less area than it did 30 years ago. * Declined but then recovered to about the same area it had 30 years ago. * Covers more area than it did 30 years ago." We'll be asking this question on a new survey in mid-October, watching for possible change in the percentage who think that late-summer sea ice has recovered to the area it had 30 years ago.
Toggle Commented Sep 9, 2013 on IPCC crisis meeting at Arctic Sea Ice
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In mid-July through early August, participants on the Arctic Sea Ice (ASI) blog posted 66 individual predictions for the mean NSIDC September Arctic sea ice extent. The median value of these 66 predictions is 3.6 million km2, with an interquartile range (approximately the middle 50%) from 2.92 to 4.28 million... Continue reading
Posted Aug 28, 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
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I doubt the arctic is really changing anyone's mind, an that the "huge majority" that buys into the jetstream theory is just the same bunch that already thought AGW was a serious problem. There is overlap but these are not the same groups (we checked). The Arctic/weather group is larger than those who believe in anthropogenic climate change; it includes many who concede climate is changing, although mainly for natural reasons. Because of this, the Arctic/warming responses were less politically polarized than a question attributing human or natural causes to climate change.
Toggle Commented Aug 14, 2013 on Perception of the Arctic 2 at Arctic Sea Ice