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Michael A. Allen
Binghamton
Recent Activity
Of QP Publications and International Relations
Two new pieces from QP authors. First, Michael Flynn has a solo-authored piece in an upcoming Foreign Policy Analysis that has an early view avaible. Abstract: How does political competition among domestic actors influence foreign policy choice? Studies examining these... Continue reading
Posted Feb 5, 2013 at The Quantitative Peace
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Mapping Leadership Tenure
Posted Nov 13, 2012 at The Quantitative Peace
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Election Predictions 2012
Discussing the election is all but inevitable. Given my proclivity for numbers, I gathered opinions from 11 willing "experts," including 5 political scientists, 3 bloggers from the QP, 8 PhDs, and members from other related field (Public Policy, Communication, and... Continue reading
Posted Nov 6, 2012 at The Quantitative Peace
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Reading Downs and the likelihood of voting
Since tomorrow is national election day in the US, the get out the vote drives are in full swing. So, in celebration of voting, a few relevant articles on academics and voting: The rational voter paradox illustrated by Downs' An... Continue reading
Posted Nov 5, 2012 at The Quantitative Peace
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What is your favorite restaurant in town?
Ice Breakers
I have posted a list of ice breaker questions below that can be fun to use during the first week of classes. Feel free to comment if you have any more suggestions! 1. If you could meet 3 people, real or fictional, who would they be? 2. Name a political event that has impacted your life. Explain ...
Gotham City as the Paris Commune
Posted Jul 23, 2012 at The Quantitative Peace
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Using private information to beat Death
In Bill and Ted's Bogus Journey (not to be confused with their most Excellent Adventure), the duo are killed and sent to Hell. On their way to an eternity of punishment, Death gives them the ability to escape their fate... Continue reading
Posted Jun 18, 2012 at The Quantitative Peace
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USGS map sale
Posted May 5, 2012 at The Quantitative Peace
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MPSA Paper, Deadly Triangles
For the Midwest Political Science Association annual convention this year, I have only one paper. I will present a paper co-authored with Sam Bell and Chad Clay looking at the impact rivalry has on dispute escalation in asymmetric dyads. Friday... Continue reading
Posted Apr 11, 2012 at The Quantitative Peace
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ISA panels
While I am not attending ISA physically this year, I have two different papers being presented by co-authors. As such, a bit of shameless self-promotion. The first paper is being presented by Matt DiGiuseppe on Tuesday (4/3) at 8:15 AM... Continue reading
Posted Apr 2, 2012 at The Quantitative Peace
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The face of evil, 2012
Posted Mar 31, 2012 at The Quantitative Peace
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Hunger Games: Civil Wars, Victory, and Repression
Posted Mar 21, 2012 at The Quantitative Peace
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Organized violence in Africa, 1989-2010
Ralph Sundberg at the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) sent me this video they put together displaying organized violence in Africa for a 21 year time period: The data can be found here: http://ucdp.uu.se/ged/ Continue reading
Posted Feb 2, 2012 at The Quantitative Peace
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How Bruce Bueno de Mesquita buys a car
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita explains how to buy a car cheaply--something he mentioned on the Colbert Report this week: The Colbert interview can be found here. Continue reading
Posted Jan 26, 2012 at The Quantitative Peace
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Links from the Weekend
Peer Review of the Internet - "It will enable sentence-level critique of written words combined with a sophisticated yet easy-to-use model of community peer-review. It will work as an overlay on top of any stable content, including news, blogs, scientific... Continue reading
Posted Dec 5, 2011 at The Quantitative Peace
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Social Science Bloggers, You Can Win Money
3 Quarks Daily is hosting its 3rd Annual 3QD Politics & Social Science Prize for "best blog writing in politics & social science:" As usual, this is the way it will work: the nominating period is now open, and will... Continue reading
Posted Dec 2, 2011 at The Quantitative Peace
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The Danger of Online Articles
I listen to several podcasts each work during my daily commute to and from the office. One podcast, the Skeptics Guide to the Universe (SGU), has several segments each week, with a few discussing scientific findings. My favorite is a... Continue reading
Posted Nov 29, 2011 at The Quantitative Peace
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Music and Academia: The Role of Colons in Titles
This post is written by Ben Farrer whose account is currently down. I’m starting to strongly dislike academic titles that take the form: “Metaphor For x: Actual Description Of x”, or similar, and am venting my frustration with a game.... Continue reading
Posted Oct 21, 2011 at The Quantitative Peace
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Quick Link: The Top 10 Worst Graphs in Science
Karl Bowman offers a list of the top 10 worst graphs in the scientific literature. Bowman not only critiques each graph, but also offers suggestions to improve the graph in the future. For this list, the social sciences were not... Continue reading
Posted Oct 21, 2011 at The Quantitative Peace
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Two Comics for Friday
If you are not subscribed to these two comics, then this will be new to you. If you already have them on your RSS feed, well, you get to suffer their propagation.* The ever-linkable XKCD offers the rational incentives on... Continue reading
Posted Sep 30, 2011 at The Quantitative Peace
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Free Access to Early 20th century and 19th century articles via JSTOR
Estranged academics, individuals in the private sector, and the public at large can rejoice (a bit) as JSTOR has officially announced that it will make American articles and journals published before 1923 publicly available. Journals published prior to 1870 in... Continue reading
Posted Sep 8, 2011 at The Quantitative Peace
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Jonathan's Card Has Ended
Posted Aug 13, 2011 at The Quantitative Peace
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The Future of Political Science (summary, short discussion)
I have mentioned, in a previous post, all of the books that fill up my summer reading list. As of now, I have at least one book completed and several more have been added to my list. I have recently... Continue reading
Posted Aug 11, 2011 at The Quantitative Peace
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Summer Reading List?
This is a partial bleg post. While finishing up some weekly chores in the laundromat I realized that my kindle was quickly running out of content and needed some fresh additions. Summer can be a good time to catch up... Continue reading
Posted Jun 27, 2011 at The Quantitative Peace
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It partly comes down to what we buy as a decent metric (or proxy of that metric) that evaluates skill. I buy the authors' argument that if previous performances can predict future results, then poker is a game skill. The alternative, of course, is the game is rigged, but I think we can safely argue that this is not the case.
In the online world, the results are replicable. Sites track the performance of players and we have a lot more data. For example, a cursory look at pocketfives.com suggests that there are people who are consistent in their performance. If we really want to retest their arguments, we can use that data and look at future tournaments.
To provide a bit of anecdote, I have played poker both online and offline quite a bit and have studied "tells" in both situations. Generally, I would not suggests that tells are the primary place where the skill comes in - as players get better they are better able to disguise their tells or send false signals. So, often, the game of reading tells becomes the same as guessing what their bet really means. In the online world, you get some similar tells as well. How long a player takes to make their decision, what size their bet is, how many tables they are playing on at the same time, and whether or not they are chatting in the box can all give you some indication of their mental state and what their bets may or may not mean.
Personally, I have usually done better in person than online, but that was not because of the lack of tells; it was mostly due to the player types. In person players are more likely to be casual, visiting a casino for the weekend, old school style of playing poker, or an average poker player. These styles are generally easier to play against. Online, especially starting about 2003, players became more aggressive. This was generally attributed to younger players becoming involved in the game, but also the high variance strategy of aggression on multiple hands is able to force other players to fold or give way to bad reads to the opposition. The younger, aggressive players do play in the casinos, but there seems to be a smaller percentage of them in person.
Poker is a game of skill
The New York Times (this may cost you one of your monthly alloted articles) reports on a new article by Levitt and Miles that argues that poker is a game of skill and not a game of chance. The policy-relevant implications for the study deals with legalization - several prohibitions against poke...
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