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Mark Thoma
Eugene, Oregon
Professor of Economics, University of Oregon
Recent Activity
Daniel Little: The case for realism in the social realm, Understanding Society: The case for scientific realism in the case of physics, microbiology, and chemistry is a strong one. The theories of physics, biology, and chemistry postulate unobservable entities, forces,... Continue reading
Posted 2 hours ago at Economist's View
Artificial Unintelligence - Paul Krugman Not too simple: Just wrong - Roger Farmer Bad behaviour and early school leaving - Vox EU The macro/micro validity tradeoff - Noah Smith What did Lucas and Sargent mean? - Mean Squared Errors The... Continue reading
Posted 2 hours ago at Economist's View
[A speech by Stanley Fischer at Jackson Hole turned into a pretend interview] Hello, and thank you for talking with us. Let me start by asking if you feel like it gives the Fed a bad image to have a... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Economist's View
84
Displacement: The Misunderstood Crisis - The Berkeley Blog Entry and Exit Leads to Zero Profit for Bitcoin Miners - Liberty Street The special relationship: UK and US bond yields - Bank Underground Central bank independence before and after the Great... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Economist's View
165
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Tim Duy: Hawkish Rumblings, by Tim Duy: Fedspeak from the Jackson Hole conference suggests that the more hawkish FOMC participants are sticking to their guns. Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester, via the Wall Street Journal: “I want to... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Economist's View
37
It's a good thing Republicans, at least in theory, take a hands off approach when it comes to the economy (they actually don't, but let's pretend) because they "haven't a clue": Crash-Test Dummies as Republican Candidates for President, by Paul... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Economist's View
13
In the WSJ, Marco Rubio says Obama hasn't been tough enough with China on economic issues: President Obama has continued to appease China’s leaders ...[with] his insufficient responses to economic ... concerns What would he do? For years, China has... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Economist's View
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Tim Duy: This September meeting is the gift that keeps on giving. Right now it is giving by the shear quantity of truly bad commentary arguing for a rate hike next month. Let's back up a few weeks. Prior to... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Economist's View
30
A third scenario for stock markets - Antonio Fatas Has corporate bond market liquidity fallen? - Bank Underground How Many Equations Should be in Macroeconomic Models ? - Angry Bear China’s policy failings challenge the Fed - Gavyn Davies States... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Economist's View
108
Robert Shiller (a reason to agree with Tim Duy): Rising Anxiety That Stocks Are Overpriced: Over the five trading days between Aug. 17 and Aug. 24, the U.S. stock market dropped 10 percent — the official definition of a “correction,”... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Economist's View
66
Are you as convinced as Tim is that rate hikes are off the table at the Fed's next meeting?: Q2 GDP Revised up to 3.7%, by Bill McBride, Calculated Risk: From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2015 (Third... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Economist's View
43
Simon Wren-Lewis: The day macroeconomics changed: It is of course ludicrous, but who cares. The day of the Boston Fed conference in 1978 is fast taking on a symbolic significance. It is the day that Lucas and Sargent changed how... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Economist's View
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Joseph Tracy, Robert Rich, Samuel Kapon, and Ellen Fu say "that roughly 90 percent of the labor gap that opened up following the recession has been closed": Mind the Gap: Assessing Labor Market Slack, Liberty Street Economics, NY Fed: Indicators... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Economist's View
88
The Reactionary Soul - Paul Krugman Biased Estimation of Marginal Effects - Dave Giles As stocks lurch, Fed ponders twist of the dial - CBS News U.Va. Economists Build Bonds With the Federal Reserve - UVA Today Doug Porpora on... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Economist's View
85
Tim Duy: Dudley Puts The Kibosh On September, by Tim Duy: Monday's action on Wall Street was too much for the Fed. That day, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart pulled back his previous dedication to a September rate hike... Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Economist's View
108
Ray Fair: The Future of Macro: There is an interesting set of recent blogs--- Paul Romer 1, Paul Romer 2, Brad DeLong, Paul Krugman, Simon Wren-Lewis, and Robert Waldmann---on the history of macro beginning with the 1978 Boston Fed conference,... Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Economist's View
80
Paul Krugman has advice for the Fed: It’s Getting Tighter: When thinking about the market madness and its possible real effects, here’s something you — where by “you” I mean the Fed in particular — really, really need to keep... Continue reading
Posted 5 days ago at Economist's View
66
From Tim Taylor: John Kenneth Galbraith on Writing, Inspiration, and Simplicity: John Kenneth Galbraith (1908-2006) was trained as an economist, but in books like The Affluent Society (1958) and The New Industrial State (1967), his found his metier as a... Continue reading
Posted 5 days ago at Economist's View
28
Stefania Albanesi, Claudia Olivetti, and Maria Prados at the NY Fed's Liberty Street Economics: Incentive Pay and Gender Compensation Gaps for Top Executives: The persistence of a gender gap in wages is shaping the debate over women’s equality in the... Continue reading
Posted 5 days ago at Economist's View
Unnatural Obsessions - Paul Krugman Political Risks May Foil Economic Reform in China - The New York Times It's Often a Curse to Be Blessed With Commodities - Bloomberg View What is known about non-bank interconnectedness? - Bank Underground Incentive... Continue reading
Posted 5 days ago at Economist's View
98
I have a new column: The Politics of Income Inequality: f the policies favored by some Republicans seeking the nomination for president turned into reality, we’d roll back or eliminate our social insurance programs, cut taxes on the wealthy, cut... Continue reading
Posted 5 days ago at Economist's View
82
Paul Krugman: Stupid China Stories: So a stock crash in China triggered a big decline around the world..., why should events in China matter for the rest of us? Well, you and I might think that it’s because China is... Continue reading
Posted 6 days ago at Economist's View
54
Nothing particularly surprising here -- the Great recession was unusually severe and unusually long, and hence had unusual impacts, but it's good to have numbers characterizing what happened: Great Recession Job Losses Severe, Enduring: Of those who lost full-time jobs... Continue reading
Posted 6 days ago at Economist's View
From the NBER Digest: Thinking, Fast and Slow: Efforts to Reduce Youthful Crime in Chicago: Interventions that get youths to slow down and behave less automatically in high-stakes situations show positive results in three experiments. Disparities in youth outcomes in... Continue reading
Posted 6 days ago at Economist's View
A property crisis: interview with Thomas Piketty - New Philosopher Stiglitz: “Deep-seatedly wrong” economics is killing Greece - INET On China, and Preventing the Financial Runs of August - Econbrowser Rate Hike Fever - Paul Krugman Nathan Rosenberg and the... Continue reading
Posted 6 days ago at Economist's View
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