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Okay, so I've figured this out. Hear me out on this.
For choice #1, you have a 2 in 3 chance of picking a goat. So, for 66% of the time, the door you've chosen is a goat. The host then shows you the other door with a goat, which leaves the final door - the car.
So the probability of getting the car if you always switch doors is 66%!
The overall probability cannot be changed to 50% because, if you first pick a goat, the probability from that point on that you will get the car upon switching is 100%! (And 100% x 66% is still 66%!)
The other 33% is what happens when your first choice of door happens to be the car, and given the opportunity to switch, you switch.
So Marilyn was right!
(And consequently, the probability of getting the car if your policy is choosing not to switch, is 33%.)
Monty Hall, Monty Fall, Monty Crawl
Remember The Problem of the Unfinished Game? And the almost 2,500 comments those two posts generated? I know, I like to pretend it didn't happen, either. Some objected to the way I asked the question, but it was a simple question asked in simple language. I think what they're really objecting to...
One way to overcome the line-ending problem when working on multiple operating systems is to use your revision control system.
For example, Subversion can be configured to automatically checkout files with the correct line endings based on the platform on which you are running. If you check-in a file on Windows using CRLF line endings, then checkout the same file under Unix, Subversion gives you LF endings instead.
See here for further information:
http://svnbook.red-bean.com/en/1.4/svn.advanced.props.file-portability.html
The Great Newline Schism
Have you ever opened a simple little ASCII text file to see it inexplicably displayed as onegiantunbrokenline? Opening the file in a different, smarter text editor results in the file displayed properly in multiple paragraphs. The answer to this puzzle lies in our old friend, invisibl...
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Jun 27, 2010
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