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Kevin McKinney
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This link just came up on RC, and will be of interest here. It's an observational study of the albedo effects of the declining ASI: http://eisenman.ucsd.edu/publications/Pistone-Eisenman-Ramanathan-2014.pdf In summary, this study demonstrates a close relationship between SSM/I sea ice cover and CERES planetary albedo during the CERES record (2000–2011), thereby independently corroborating the passive microwave satellite observations of sea ice retreat. We find consistent agreement between these satellite observations, a climate model, and in situ surface observations. Using the relationship between SSM/I and CERES measurements to extend the albedo record back in time, we find that during 1979–2011 the Arctic darkened sufficiently to cause an increase in solar energy input into the Arctic Ocean region of 6.4 ± 0.9 W/m2, equivalent to an increase of 0.21 ± 0.03 W/m2 averaged over the globe. This implies that the albedo forcing due solely to changes in Arctic sea ice has been 25% as large globally as the direct radiative forcing from increased carbon dioxide concentrations, which is estimated to be 0.8 W/m2 between 1979 and 2011. The present study shows that the planetary darkening effect of the vanishing sea ice represents a substantial climate forcing that is not offset by cloud albedo feedbacks and other processes. Together, these findings provide direct observational validation of the hypothesis of a positive feedback between sea ice cover, planetary albedo, and global warming. (Paragraph breaks added for online clarity, footnotes redacted.)
Toggle Commented Aug 19, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
"The NW passage looks about as choked with ice as it has been the last decade." There is quite a bit of ice, but then again, if my memory serves (always a dicey proposition) there's a heck of a lot less than about a week ago. We'll see...
Toggle Commented Aug 16, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
Oops! Yogi is "great," but not "late!" Wouldn't want him to boycott my funeral.
Toggle Commented Aug 10, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks for another fine summary, Neven. I'm not surprised to find yet another surprise around the most recent bend in the ice road--at the risk of sounding a bit like the late great Yogi Berra.
Toggle Commented Aug 10, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
OT for sea ice, but possibly of interest to some here--I've just published an essay mulling the denialist meme of 'puny humans.' Comments welcomed--particularly if you spot a mis-statement of some sort! http://doc-snow.hubpages.com/hub/Puny-Humans-Can-We-Change-The-Course-Of-Nature
Toggle Commented Aug 9, 2014 on Poof, it's gone at Arctic Sea Ice
Kevin's comment sounds like a pretty good insight to me. We'll see how well it plays out.
Toggle Commented Aug 3, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 6: slow times at Arctic Sea Ice
OT, but I don't really 'do' the Forum much. Regarding the "WW II dip", Hank Roberts recently posted an interesting paper on RC which linked GMST during (and immediately following) the War years to the near-collapse of fishing activity in the North Atlantic, to the subsequent recovery of the fish stocks, and then to (relatively) rapid oceanic drawdown of CO2. Don't have the link, but I thought it was a fascinating idea.
Toggle Commented May 31, 2014 on Greenland 2013 in review at Arctic Sea Ice
Heh, am I reading this chart wrongly or is there a bit of a 'flush' going on right now? http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html
Toggle Commented May 22, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 1: melt pond May at Arctic Sea Ice
By the way, I couldn't access the site last evening because of the DDOS attack that took much of Typepad's operation down for the second time in a few weeks. (Didn't notice anything the first time!) Welcome back!
Toggle Commented May 20, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 1: melt pond May at Arctic Sea Ice
D, Yes. It's entirely obvious--except for those Holocaustically challenged, chronically perforated, or Medievally monetary (in a small way, of course.) For them, the infamous "Parrot sketch" is only a slight exaggeration. And the Arctic ice is 'only resting.'
Toggle Commented May 12, 2014 on PIOMAS May 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Yes, thanks, Neven! Appreciate the work and thought. So far, it does look as if we might see a 'reversion to trend' sort of year… but we all know about the Arctic's ability to surprise.
Toggle Commented May 5, 2014 on 2013/2014 Winter Analysis at Arctic Sea Ice
Exciting! It would be great if seasonal-scale constraints could be arrived at...
Toggle Commented Apr 27, 2014 on More on melt ponds at Arctic Sea Ice
This is OT--concerning not the Arctic, but the tropical Andes--but is relevant to the wider question of AGW and glacial ice loss. I'm sure it will interest many here, and is moreover (IMO, anyway) one of the better pieces I've seen on current climate change impacts. It probably isn't well-positioned for visibility, either, being up on a regional site of Canada's national broadcaster, CBC, so let me do my bit to spread it around. http://www.cbc.ca/edmonton/features/dying-for-a-drink/disappearing-act.html
Toggle Commented Apr 19, 2014 on Miscellanea at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks for the miscellanea, Neven! WRT this comment--"And oil and gas from the region is expected to contribute increasingly to the global economy, although the resources will be costly and difficult to access."--I would just say that the implied pros and cons seem to have been inverted somehow... ;-)
Toggle Commented Apr 19, 2014 on Miscellanea at Arctic Sea Ice
"...the self proclaimed "center of the climate blogosphere"!" Hence the phrase, "rotten to the core." Or maybe, 'from the core.' /snark
Toggle Commented Apr 14, 2014 on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Yes, unless there's 'covert ops' involved, PIOMAS has nothing to do with DoD. See: http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/about/
Toggle Commented Apr 12, 2014 on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Chris, that's a good piece in many respects. However, despair is not adaptive. I will never, never give up--and I, too, am happy.
Toggle Commented Apr 10, 2014 on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Yes, Old Leatherneck suffered a slight 'memory morph' over the decades. Happens to all of us. But I appreciate the flashback. *Loved* that book--even wrote a (lengthy) poem inspired by it a few years back. Note that the wiki article Greg linked to affords access to the 1969 National Film Board of Canada short by none other than the late, great Bill Mason. Oh, heck, why not? https://www.nfb.ca/film/paddle_to_the_sea
Toggle Commented Apr 10, 2014 on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
Al, D'oh! Curious…
Toggle Commented Apr 9, 2014 on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Al Roger, per your comment yesterday, UAH has indeed updated: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt .17, basically unchanged from last month (though that global mean figure is masking a switch from oceans being relatively warmer than land to a more equal distribution of the anomaly.)
Toggle Commented Apr 9, 2014 on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Gentlepersons, I think we are losing the high seriousness demanded of acolytes of literary art! ;-) However, in our collective defense, I think the discussion is making it abundantly clear that the nature of the 'object' in question is pretty crucial to its fate.
Toggle Commented Apr 7, 2014 on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
Well, Neven's arrows make sense, as the two principal circulatory components are the Transpolar Drift--basically the straight arrow--and the Beaufort Gyre--the counterclockwise one. That's discussed here: http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/circulation.html Interesting 'experiments' (albeit not undertaken all that close to the Pole were the cases of HMS Investigator and HMS Resolute, both of which were frozen into the ice pack. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Investigator_(1848) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McClure_Arctic_Expedition http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Resolute_(1850) The former ship was frozen into the pack; the ship's complement were rescued by the latter. McClure's company thereby completed a transit of the Northwest Passage, albeit not aboard their original ship. As the first article notes, the wreck of Investigator was found in 2010. Resolute herself was trapped in the ice and abandoned. However, she drifted free after several years and was salvaged by an American whaler, bought by Congress, and returned to the British government in a gracious gesture. (HM government reciprocated by having desks made from the Resolute's timbers when she was finally broken up at the end of her service life; one was given to Rutherford B. Hayes, and has been used by most Presidents since, including President Obama.) My guess (FWIW) is that the story of Resolute is one of the sources for the apocryphal tale of the Octavius: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Octavius_(ship) The disparate fates of the ships illustrate that objects can be cast up on islands and remain indefinitely, or be set free in just a few years. My guess is that the latter is more common, especially over very long timescales. We know from our observations and discussions here that the Beaufort Gyre is only quasi-permanent; things may make a few circles, but it's no Sargasso Sea. If something were to be retained for a long time in the Arctic ice, my guess would be that it would probably end up on the north coast of Greenland or Ellesmere Island, where the thickest ice tends to end up.
Toggle Commented Apr 7, 2014 on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
"This would push the global average to 1.4C above pre-industrial." A very interesting prospect, to say the least. Not the least interesting bit would be its effect upon the public discourse around climate change.
Toggle Commented Mar 27, 2014 on Mission possible at Arctic Sea Ice
Boa, thanks for that Stroeve et al. link. You get folks trying to argue away the increased absorption, so it's handy to have a reference.
Toggle Commented Mar 11, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
I wouldn't be too sure about a long lag between ice-free minima and perenially ice-free AO. It may take a while, or (via some of the mechanisms Chris was mentioning) it may not. There is some support for the latter possibility in at least one modeling study, though I can't go fishing for the citation just now. My gut feeling: you can't assume that Arctic atmospheric temps will have more 'inertia' than the ocean itself...
Toggle Commented Mar 9, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice