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Kevin McKinney
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"...the self proclaimed "center of the climate blogosphere"!" Hence the phrase, "rotten to the core." Or maybe, 'from the core.' /snark
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Yes, unless there's 'covert ops' involved, PIOMAS has nothing to do with DoD. See:
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Chris, that's a good piece in many respects. However, despair is not adaptive. I will never, never give up--and I, too, am happy.
Toggle Commented 7 days ago on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Yes, Old Leatherneck suffered a slight 'memory morph' over the decades. Happens to all of us. But I appreciate the flashback. *Loved* that book--even wrote a (lengthy) poem inspired by it a few years back. Note that the wiki article Greg linked to affords access to the 1969 National Film Board of Canada short by none other than the late, great Bill Mason. Oh, heck, why not?
Toggle Commented 7 days ago on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
Al, D'oh! Curious…
Toggle Commented Apr 9, 2014 on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Al Roger, per your comment yesterday, UAH has indeed updated: .17, basically unchanged from last month (though that global mean figure is masking a switch from oceans being relatively warmer than land to a more equal distribution of the anomaly.)
Toggle Commented Apr 9, 2014 on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Gentlepersons, I think we are losing the high seriousness demanded of acolytes of literary art! ;-) However, in our collective defense, I think the discussion is making it abundantly clear that the nature of the 'object' in question is pretty crucial to its fate.
Toggle Commented Apr 7, 2014 on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
Well, Neven's arrows make sense, as the two principal circulatory components are the Transpolar Drift--basically the straight arrow--and the Beaufort Gyre--the counterclockwise one. That's discussed here: Interesting 'experiments' (albeit not undertaken all that close to the Pole were the cases of HMS Investigator and HMS Resolute, both of which were frozen into the ice pack. The former ship was frozen into the pack; the ship's complement were rescued by the latter. McClure's company thereby completed a transit of the Northwest Passage, albeit not aboard their original ship. As the first article notes, the wreck of Investigator was found in 2010. Resolute herself was trapped in the ice and abandoned. However, she drifted free after several years and was salvaged by an American whaler, bought by Congress, and returned to the British government in a gracious gesture. (HM government reciprocated by having desks made from the Resolute's timbers when she was finally broken up at the end of her service life; one was given to Rutherford B. Hayes, and has been used by most Presidents since, including President Obama.) My guess (FWIW) is that the story of Resolute is one of the sources for the apocryphal tale of the Octavius: The disparate fates of the ships illustrate that objects can be cast up on islands and remain indefinitely, or be set free in just a few years. My guess is that the latter is more common, especially over very long timescales. We know from our observations and discussions here that the Beaufort Gyre is only quasi-permanent; things may make a few circles, but it's no Sargasso Sea. If something were to be retained for a long time in the Arctic ice, my guess would be that it would probably end up on the north coast of Greenland or Ellesmere Island, where the thickest ice tends to end up.
Toggle Commented Apr 7, 2014 on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
"This would push the global average to 1.4C above pre-industrial." A very interesting prospect, to say the least. Not the least interesting bit would be its effect upon the public discourse around climate change.
Toggle Commented Mar 27, 2014 on Mission possible at Arctic Sea Ice
Boa, thanks for that Stroeve et al. link. You get folks trying to argue away the increased absorption, so it's handy to have a reference.
Toggle Commented Mar 11, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
I wouldn't be too sure about a long lag between ice-free minima and perenially ice-free AO. It may take a while, or (via some of the mechanisms Chris was mentioning) it may not. There is some support for the latter possibility in at least one modeling study, though I can't go fishing for the citation just now. My gut feeling: you can't assume that Arctic atmospheric temps will have more 'inertia' than the ocean itself...
Toggle Commented Mar 9, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Interesting work! Hadn't really thought about the extent to which a river like the Mackenzie transports warmth to the AO. But the immediate headwaters are 1,700 km south (Great Slave Lake) and the farthest reaches of the watershed, over 4,000 (Thutade Lake, at roughly 56 N.) Yearly discharge is supposed to be about 325 km e3.
When I was a kid in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, everyone paid attention to the ice in Lake Superior since it really modulated snowfall and temperature quite a bit. Some winters saw relatively complete freezes, some not. But the trend has been pretty dramatic--though this year's anomaly certainly is, too: The atlas above doesn't go quite that far back, but may interest some.
Toggle Commented Mar 7, 2014 on Another ice extreme at Arctic Sea Ice
@jdallen-- "Highly speculative" seems too strong. Yes, the indications of ocean anoxia during the PETM seem less strong than the 'classic' anoxic events during the more distant past. Yet we know that anoxia is a real possibility from those more distant events, and it's very possible that temps could exceed those of the PETM. If so, why shouldn't we get the Cat 6 storms and ocean anoxia memorialized in Cretaceous sediments? Still, I'm pretty sure that hydrological disaster will be more than damaging enough, a lot sooner, so I suppose the more lurid stuff is--well, less relevant over millennial timescales.
Jim, pretty pictures indeed in that second set. Almost too pretty for the subject matter, though it appears that the famous stiff upper lip is in pretty decent fettle. Thanks. I have to say, it reminds me of one of the sub-chapters in "Six Degrees," called "Blighty Gets A Battering." Can't be climate change yet, though, surely--that section was in "The 4 Degree World." Natural variability, perhaps--though it is consistent with the ideas in Francis & Vavrus, 2012, I have to recall as well. Either way, it's a good illustration of what "Blighty Gets A Battering" means in real-world terms.
Toggle Commented Feb 2, 2014 on Sea ice atlas at Arctic Sea Ice
Also, in contrast to last summer, the DMI 'north of 80' reconstruction shows a warmer than normal central Arctic: That's true pretty much back to day 300 of last year. Should have been slowing the thickening of ice there somewhat.
Toggle Commented Jan 27, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
You're welcome, Neven. Yes, it's a good word; it's just too bad that we need it. (And almost surely, more frequently over time.) I encountered it in Amy Seidl's book, "Adaptation", which I wrote about here a while back:
Toggle Commented Jan 11, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Not sure if this is 'weirdness,' exactly--maybe more like the new normal. But one of the aspects of sea ice loss that both Neven and I have referred to in the past is documented here: Depression, grief, mourning... or as it has been termed in contexts such as this one, solastalgia.
Toggle Commented Jan 11, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Personally, I find the widget not nearly shocking enough. Anyway, it will just be 'furniture' after the first couple of times. (My 2 cents.)
Toggle Commented Dec 7, 2013 on PIOMAS December 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
idunno, thanks! Sounds like a very good proxy tool indeed.
Toggle Commented Nov 19, 2013 on PIOMAS November 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Carrying over from OT #1--that's "Open Thread," of course, not the Other Thing--I'd like to give a big hat tip to Tenney Naumer for the incredibly nifty link he posted: And a bigger one to the folks at U. Maine!
Oops, just noticed that my ice chart was too big. Here's a (hopefully better) size. (Yes, better, if I can trust the preview.)
Toggle Commented Sep 19, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
You are welcome, 'late.' I should probably shut up at this point, having apparently failed to make a complete fool of myself yet, but the question is interesting. I think the problem with your idea is that the objects emitting radiation are 'greybodies' that emit over a wider spectrum, not at the more precisely 'tuned' frequencies of the gases. For example: Objects at room temperature will emit radiation concentrated mostly in the 8 to 25 µm band but this is not distinct from the emission of visible light by incandescent objects and ultraviolet by even hotter objects (see black body and Wien's displacement law). So shifting temperatures of emitting graybodies by, say, 30-50 C may not have such a dramatic effect on the flux at the CO2 bands. (I'm thinking tenths of a nanometer, but those adept at applying Wien's Displacement Law could answer that more precisely/reliably.)
Toggle Commented Sep 19, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
"Ok 12 days from now, All the Ice that did not melt this year I do feel is and should be named Multiyear..." As has been pointed out, it's not so simple as ice turning 'multiyear' on its anniversary; second-year ice is not the same as older ice, even if the brine rejection process has made some progress. Perhaps more importantly, notice that at this time of year the same argument applies *every* year? That doesn't make for a solid basis for prediction! True, the survival of a relatively larger amount of ice means that there will be more second-year ice this coming winter than there was last year. That doesn't imply a trend--as the examples of 2006 and 2009 illustrate. Here's a chart from March of this year showing the evolution of the Arctic sea ice 'demographics': Note the trend!
Toggle Commented Sep 19, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
"I recall reading somewhere that CO2 absorbs at wavelengths which correspond to low temperatures." Sounds like you are thinking about Planck's Law: Every physical body spontaneously and continuously emits electromagnetic radiation. Near thermodynamic equilibrium, the emitted radiation is nearly described by Planck's law. Because of its dependence on temperature, Planck radiation is said to be thermal. The higher the temperature of a body the more radiation it emits at every wavelength. Planck radiation has a maximum intensity at a specific wavelength that depends on the temperature. For example, at room temperature (~300 K), a body emits thermal radiation that is mostly infrared and invisible. At higher temperatures the amount of infrared radiation increases and can be felt as heat, and the body glows visibly red. At even higher temperatures, a body is dazzlingly bright yellow or blue-white and emits significant amounts of short wavelength radiation, including ultraviolet and even x-rays. The surface of the sun (~6000 K) emits large amounts of both infrared and ultraviolet radiation; its emission is peaked in the visible spectrum.'s_law Gases do emit and absorb specific frequencies, depending upon their quantum mechanical properties. For CO2, several of these lie in the infrared range--which is 'low' compared with, say, the temperature of the sun. I doubt, though, that the Terrestrial temperature range is very precisely 'parceled out', since I know the responsive frequencies 'smear out' in practice due to the effects of differing temperatures and particularly pressures. But maybe someone much more knowledgeable about the details of radiative transfer than I may care to comment.
Toggle Commented Sep 19, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice