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Kevin McKinney
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"Anybody else notice the growing epidemic of writing "minima" for the singular "minimum"?" I hadn't, actually--though I probably will, now that you've pointed it out. But I've been very bothered by the redundant and superfluous double 'is': "The fact of the matter is, is that…" Sadly, the estimable Mr. Obama is one of the guilty parties. Returning to the topic at hand, thanks, Neven, for another concise yet comprehensive roundup. You keep getting better. And since we're speculating, I'm going to go with the idea that the anthropogenic warming trend, combined with additional water vapor and energy in the troposphere, will result in a warm winter north of 80, and even lower ice formation rates than 'the new normal.' Which means PIOMAS will continue to slump throughout the freezing months. The echoes of that may persist right into the melting season. There, pure speculation. But I rather think it could play out that way.
Toggle Commented Sep 24, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
Down to 4,257,003. "Fascinating."
Toggle Commented Sep 16, 2015 on PIOMAS September 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
"Kevin, I think you are right about calling the minimum, but the minimum value on JAXA was 4,279, 543 sqkm on the 8th; which puts 2015 in 4th position on the scoreboard behind 2012, 2007 and 2011 (by a whisker!)." I wish! Sic transit gloria, and all that! Although there may be a glimmer of hope, in the form of a revision. They do sometimes do that, I've noticed (and actually I'm pretty sure that's what led to the discrepancy between the number I typed and the number Phil (correctly) gave later.) Certainly, today's sharp drop looks a tad suspicious. No time to check the weather setup right now, though.
Toggle Commented Sep 14, 2015 on PIOMAS September 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
I'm about ready to call the 8th the minimum in JAXA--today's update will do it for me if there's no increase. The 2015 minimum extent value (JAXA flavor, of course) would then be 4,358,918 km2, which (unsurprisingly to most here) would be 4th lowest, behind 2012, 2007, and 2011. Of course, I've got no money riding on it--it probably won't be completely 'safe' for another week or so. We'll see--which seems like my constant refrain in matters Arctic.
Toggle Commented Sep 11, 2015 on PIOMAS September 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Gotta say, that's quite the image of the Beaufort today on the CT site. I don't remember seeing such huge holes in the pack. That Western Arctic sector looks really, really vulnerable. It also looks as if we'll see some degree of NWP opening this season all right (yeah, I know, I'm not even close to the first to say so.) At the moment, it looks as if there could be quite the finale to the melt season.
Toggle Commented Aug 12, 2015 on ASI 2015 update 5: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
Well, as we set up for the 'finale' of the ice-melt season, it doesn't look like a record. But it also sure doesn't look like 'recovery' either. And with the global mean and ENSO being what they are, I've got to wonder about the freeze season coming. Will we see 'pre-pre-conditioning' for the 2016 season?
Toggle Commented Aug 5, 2015 on PIOMAS August 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Fascinating. Been wondering when/if the very warm global temps we've been seeing over the last year or more would translate into specifically Arctic effects. The twists and turns of Arctic melt seasons may be kind of slo mo, but they don't stop coming.
Toggle Commented Jul 7, 2015 on ASI 2015 update 4: massive heat at Arctic Sea Ice
Excellent, as always. Watching…
Rob, yes--too few time points for any statistical conclusions to be drawn I'd think, but the overall curves had, I thought, some promise according to the ol' eyeball.
Thanks Bill (and Neven). ""Jam & Jerusalem"" makes me think of Emerson, Lake & Palmer more than WI, but then I'm a Canuck baby boomer. ;-)
Toggle Commented Jun 15, 2015 on What it's all about at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks again for a nice summary, Neven. Another 'interesting' moment, I'd say--hard to predict what turn will happen next, especially with that prospective 340k Wipneus is talking about.
Toggle Commented Jun 15, 2015 on Melt Pond May 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Bill, "till we have built Jerusalem…" :-)
Toggle Commented Jun 11, 2015 on What it's all about at Arctic Sea Ice
Wayne, I don't, but apparently Woods Hole does, though not the very latest:,d.b2w Hope that helps...
"How about kayaking trips to the NP in the not-too-distant?" Now, *that* should garner some headlines! But, conservative me, the flutter of excitement should be quite enough… though I will certainly watch any punters who ante up with interest.
I've been pointing out on the news site I frequent, CBC.CA, that it's crazy to explore for the most difficult to extract, dangerous, and expensive oil when we can basically only afford to burn about a third of proven reserves. So I agree with Neven and McKibbon. But the President may well have made the calculation that that Arctic oil is not commercially viable now, and perhaps will never be.
Toggle Commented May 15, 2015 on Bill McKibben nails it at Arctic Sea Ice
The only identifiably exceptional modern-day aspect is that of the rising CO2 levels, which are still way below that of earlier epochs. Now, we may have our different opinions about CO2-temperature sensitivity, but one thing we agree on is that there's precious little that can be done about it, barring the catastrophic end of civilization. --Cincinnatus Talk about 'assumptions'… and unsupported ones at that! No, worse than unsupported: flat wrong. See, there's this whole report that deals with what is 'exceptional' today, in terms of the impacts that climate change is having on our world: In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans. Evidence of climate-change impacts is strongest and most comprehensive for natural systems. Some impacts on human systems have also been attributed to climate change, with a major or minor contribution of climate change distinguishable from other influences. See Figure SPM.2. Attribution of observed impacts in the WGII AR5 generally links responses of natural and human systems to observed climate change, regardless of its cause. Needless to say, the report goes into great detail, and in the course of it 1700+ pages, finds quite a number of 'exceptional' things to talk about. Cincinnatus's weasel wording that we can do 'precious little about climate sensitivity' is itself pretty precious. No, we can't change the sensitivity. But we sure can change CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere--that capability is now very well-demonstrated indeed.
Jim, what are the units on the x-axis of your chart? And what are the dates given? (Can't quite make 'em out with certainty.) It's indeed an interesting graphic. Thanks for sharing! I'm a bit intrigued by the sharpness of the 'knees' at the bottom and (especially) at the top of the ice. (You know, the 6 cm/dm/ell/furlong/whatever mark…) ;-)
Toggle Commented Apr 21, 2015 on CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness maps at Arctic Sea Ice
"Given that there is no "runaway greenhouse effect" -- a false alarmist stance, now discredited -- then it stands to reason that some warming is all to the good." That is a truly spectacular non sequitur.
Toggle Commented Apr 20, 2015 on CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness maps at Arctic Sea Ice
Hope you have a great time at the conference, Neven. I know you'll be letting us know what was most striking in due course!
"Still melting away…" Yes, not a cheerful study. There've been a couple lately.
Toggle Commented Mar 28, 2015 on Shock news! at Arctic Sea Ice
"Loquacious or pedantic much Bill?" Translation: "It's only a flesh wound!"
Toggle Commented Mar 28, 2015 on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
As always, Neven, thanks for updating us. Once again, 'the stage is set,' and we'll just have to watch the drama unfold.
Toggle Commented Mar 13, 2015 on PIOMAS March 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
"If the surface is turbulent, then the glint is reduced in the expected places, but is increased in the more distant places…" If that makes any sense at all, I am unable to parse it. "Expected" places? Whose expectations, based upon what? "Distant" places? Distant from what, exactly?
Toggle Commented Mar 12, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
Fascinating discussion! Thanks to all. I'd dearly love to know what's driving this surprising twist to… whatever season this is. And I'd suggest that if we need a substitute for crow, then its larger cousin, the raven, has pretty good Arctic credentials. (And is probably even harder to choke down.) After all, as was said earlier, "...we've been surprised before."
Toggle Commented Mar 11, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
Thank you, Larry! Much appreciated.
Toggle Commented Mar 4, 2015 on Shock news! at Arctic Sea Ice