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Kevin McKinney
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OT, but I don't really 'do' the Forum much. Regarding the "WW II dip", Hank Roberts recently posted an interesting paper on RC which linked GMST during (and immediately following) the War years to the near-collapse of fishing activity in the North Atlantic, to the subsequent recovery of the fish stocks, and then to (relatively) rapid oceanic drawdown of CO2. Don't have the link, but I thought it was a fascinating idea.
Toggle Commented May 31, 2014 on Greenland 2013 in review at Arctic Sea Ice
Heh, am I reading this chart wrongly or is there a bit of a 'flush' going on right now?
Toggle Commented May 22, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 1: melt pond May at Arctic Sea Ice
By the way, I couldn't access the site last evening because of the DDOS attack that took much of Typepad's operation down for the second time in a few weeks. (Didn't notice anything the first time!) Welcome back!
Toggle Commented May 20, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 1: melt pond May at Arctic Sea Ice
D, Yes. It's entirely obvious--except for those Holocaustically challenged, chronically perforated, or Medievally monetary (in a small way, of course.) For them, the infamous "Parrot sketch" is only a slight exaggeration. And the Arctic ice is 'only resting.'
Toggle Commented May 12, 2014 on PIOMAS May 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Yes, thanks, Neven! Appreciate the work and thought. So far, it does look as if we might see a 'reversion to trend' sort of year… but we all know about the Arctic's ability to surprise.
Toggle Commented May 5, 2014 on 2013/2014 Winter Analysis at Arctic Sea Ice
Exciting! It would be great if seasonal-scale constraints could be arrived at...
Toggle Commented Apr 27, 2014 on More on melt ponds at Arctic Sea Ice
This is OT--concerning not the Arctic, but the tropical Andes--but is relevant to the wider question of AGW and glacial ice loss. I'm sure it will interest many here, and is moreover (IMO, anyway) one of the better pieces I've seen on current climate change impacts. It probably isn't well-positioned for visibility, either, being up on a regional site of Canada's national broadcaster, CBC, so let me do my bit to spread it around.
Toggle Commented Apr 19, 2014 on Miscellanea at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks for the miscellanea, Neven! WRT this comment--"And oil and gas from the region is expected to contribute increasingly to the global economy, although the resources will be costly and difficult to access."--I would just say that the implied pros and cons seem to have been inverted somehow... ;-)
Toggle Commented Apr 19, 2014 on Miscellanea at Arctic Sea Ice
"...the self proclaimed "center of the climate blogosphere"!" Hence the phrase, "rotten to the core." Or maybe, 'from the core.' /snark
Toggle Commented Apr 14, 2014 on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Yes, unless there's 'covert ops' involved, PIOMAS has nothing to do with DoD. See:
Toggle Commented Apr 12, 2014 on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Chris, that's a good piece in many respects. However, despair is not adaptive. I will never, never give up--and I, too, am happy.
Toggle Commented Apr 10, 2014 on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Yes, Old Leatherneck suffered a slight 'memory morph' over the decades. Happens to all of us. But I appreciate the flashback. *Loved* that book--even wrote a (lengthy) poem inspired by it a few years back. Note that the wiki article Greg linked to affords access to the 1969 National Film Board of Canada short by none other than the late, great Bill Mason. Oh, heck, why not?
Toggle Commented Apr 10, 2014 on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
Al, D'oh! Curious…
Toggle Commented Apr 9, 2014 on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Al Roger, per your comment yesterday, UAH has indeed updated: .17, basically unchanged from last month (though that global mean figure is masking a switch from oceans being relatively warmer than land to a more equal distribution of the anomaly.)
Toggle Commented Apr 9, 2014 on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Gentlepersons, I think we are losing the high seriousness demanded of acolytes of literary art! ;-) However, in our collective defense, I think the discussion is making it abundantly clear that the nature of the 'object' in question is pretty crucial to its fate.
Toggle Commented Apr 7, 2014 on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
Well, Neven's arrows make sense, as the two principal circulatory components are the Transpolar Drift--basically the straight arrow--and the Beaufort Gyre--the counterclockwise one. That's discussed here: Interesting 'experiments' (albeit not undertaken all that close to the Pole were the cases of HMS Investigator and HMS Resolute, both of which were frozen into the ice pack. The former ship was frozen into the pack; the ship's complement were rescued by the latter. McClure's company thereby completed a transit of the Northwest Passage, albeit not aboard their original ship. As the first article notes, the wreck of Investigator was found in 2010. Resolute herself was trapped in the ice and abandoned. However, she drifted free after several years and was salvaged by an American whaler, bought by Congress, and returned to the British government in a gracious gesture. (HM government reciprocated by having desks made from the Resolute's timbers when she was finally broken up at the end of her service life; one was given to Rutherford B. Hayes, and has been used by most Presidents since, including President Obama.) My guess (FWIW) is that the story of Resolute is one of the sources for the apocryphal tale of the Octavius: The disparate fates of the ships illustrate that objects can be cast up on islands and remain indefinitely, or be set free in just a few years. My guess is that the latter is more common, especially over very long timescales. We know from our observations and discussions here that the Beaufort Gyre is only quasi-permanent; things may make a few circles, but it's no Sargasso Sea. If something were to be retained for a long time in the Arctic ice, my guess would be that it would probably end up on the north coast of Greenland or Ellesmere Island, where the thickest ice tends to end up.
Toggle Commented Apr 7, 2014 on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
"This would push the global average to 1.4C above pre-industrial." A very interesting prospect, to say the least. Not the least interesting bit would be its effect upon the public discourse around climate change.
Toggle Commented Mar 27, 2014 on Mission possible at Arctic Sea Ice
Boa, thanks for that Stroeve et al. link. You get folks trying to argue away the increased absorption, so it's handy to have a reference.
Toggle Commented Mar 11, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
I wouldn't be too sure about a long lag between ice-free minima and perenially ice-free AO. It may take a while, or (via some of the mechanisms Chris was mentioning) it may not. There is some support for the latter possibility in at least one modeling study, though I can't go fishing for the citation just now. My gut feeling: you can't assume that Arctic atmospheric temps will have more 'inertia' than the ocean itself...
Toggle Commented Mar 9, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Interesting work! Hadn't really thought about the extent to which a river like the Mackenzie transports warmth to the AO. But the immediate headwaters are 1,700 km south (Great Slave Lake) and the farthest reaches of the watershed, over 4,000 (Thutade Lake, at roughly 56 N.) Yearly discharge is supposed to be about 325 km e3.
When I was a kid in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, everyone paid attention to the ice in Lake Superior since it really modulated snowfall and temperature quite a bit. Some winters saw relatively complete freezes, some not. But the trend has been pretty dramatic--though this year's anomaly certainly is, too: The atlas above doesn't go quite that far back, but may interest some.
Toggle Commented Mar 7, 2014 on Another ice extreme at Arctic Sea Ice
@jdallen-- "Highly speculative" seems too strong. Yes, the indications of ocean anoxia during the PETM seem less strong than the 'classic' anoxic events during the more distant past. Yet we know that anoxia is a real possibility from those more distant events, and it's very possible that temps could exceed those of the PETM. If so, why shouldn't we get the Cat 6 storms and ocean anoxia memorialized in Cretaceous sediments? Still, I'm pretty sure that hydrological disaster will be more than damaging enough, a lot sooner, so I suppose the more lurid stuff is--well, less relevant over millennial timescales.
Jim, pretty pictures indeed in that second set. Almost too pretty for the subject matter, though it appears that the famous stiff upper lip is in pretty decent fettle. Thanks. I have to say, it reminds me of one of the sub-chapters in "Six Degrees," called "Blighty Gets A Battering." Can't be climate change yet, though, surely--that section was in "The 4 Degree World." Natural variability, perhaps--though it is consistent with the ideas in Francis & Vavrus, 2012, I have to recall as well. Either way, it's a good illustration of what "Blighty Gets A Battering" means in real-world terms.
Toggle Commented Feb 2, 2014 on Sea ice atlas at Arctic Sea Ice
Also, in contrast to last summer, the DMI 'north of 80' reconstruction shows a warmer than normal central Arctic: That's true pretty much back to day 300 of last year. Should have been slowing the thickening of ice there somewhat.
Toggle Commented Jan 27, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
You're welcome, Neven. Yes, it's a good word; it's just too bad that we need it. (And almost surely, more frequently over time.) I encountered it in Amy Seidl's book, "Adaptation", which I wrote about here a while back:
Toggle Commented Jan 11, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice