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Kevin McKinney
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Indeed, Bg1. On another topic (and also suggesting confirmation of one's intuitions), an interesting citation came over the transom at RC this morning, courtesy of the inimitable Hank Roberts. It's a research letter drilling down (yes, that horrible pun is entirely intended) into the details of just which FF reserves should remain unburnt if we are to make our 2 C carbon budget. HT to 'Nature' for not paywalling that… This won't surprise anyone here, I suspect, but one of the money quotes is: "…all Arctic resources should be classified as unburnable."
Checking out the daily graphs page, it looks as if we are starting the new year with lower extents than in the last couple of years. NSIDC has their graph line flirting with 2 SD down once again. And looking at the DMI 80 North temperature graph makes it no surprise: it's predominantly been a warm winter in the Arctic once again, so far. Ice thickening will be slowed as a result; perhaps we'll see the consequences of that in upcoming PIOMAS updates? Too early to think much about spring, of course. But I'm starting to *start* to think about spring…
To clarify my last comment, I should have said that last month tied 2012 for warmest-ever *October*. Carry on...
Toggle Commented Nov 3, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Since this thread seems to be functioning more or less as an open one, let me throw out the fact that UAH for October is now on preview at Dr. Spencer's website. The monthly anomaly clocked in at .37 C, which ties 2012 for warmest-ever. Continuing toasty… While I was over there checking the temps, I noticed that there's a very cool video up--an ISS-eye view of cyclone Nuri, which Spencer expected to hit the Bering Strait area today with (IIRC) a central pressure of 924 mBar, which is, as many here know, the sign of a pretty darn strong storm. It's probably already under discussion on the Forum, but I thought it deserved a mention out here on the 'front page.' The link to the video:
Toggle Commented Nov 3, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
This is currently at the top of the news feed in the side-bar, but perhaps is worth highlighting in connection with Neven's comment that: I also can't stress enough that the consequences of Arctic sea ice loss do not start when the Arctic becomes ice-free for all practical purposes. These consequences are most probably already with us…
Toggle Commented Oct 22, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Ah, English grammar and usage! I'd have chickened out with "There is so much that needs to be investigated," FWIW. Anyway, thanks, Neven, and good luck with the building. We're still looking for professional design help, and so far not finding it. I hope I don't' have to do everything myself, or we'll be finishing up just about the time we're too old to live there anymore. But back to the topic at hand: what I'm seeing here is something that merits the term 'recovery.' I've avoided the "r-word", as it has been misused so intensively by denialists, and I still don't much like it, as one connotation easily attached to it is one of semi-permanence, of an actual change in the long-term trend. And that is not the case here--we've been through a period of accelerated ice loss that surprised everybody, and most of the modelers cautioned us about over-interpreting that. Now their caution looks pretty good. But they are also, of course, the folks who are expecting an ice-free minimum some time in the 2030s, and almost certainly by mid-century. So, no reversal of the long-term trend. But if we were to say "temporary recovery", or "short-term recovery", I'd find it hard to disagree. It does look as though people's perceptions and expectations have shifted. Of course, the caveat is highly appropriate that "it's always good to remember that the Arctic and the word 'likely' don't get along very well." No-one anticipated 2005, 2007, or 2012, either, and I wouldn't bet our retirement house on Maslowski's 2013-2019 window being wrong--not yet, anyway.
Toggle Commented Oct 22, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
A couple of links of interest. One on inferred wildfire frequency in the Arctic: Interesting indeed, although I wonder about the assumption that these regional records are more widely applicable to the Arctic generally. And a succinct piece on the Dark Snow project: (Cross posted from RC.)
Mark, it is quite simply incorrect that "...we are not yet as warm as it was in medieval times." The evidence strongly suggests that global mean surface temperature is warmer now than during the Medieval Climate Optimum (by whatever name it is called.) See, for example:
I see that JAXA data showed a slight uptick yesterday. Could it be--?
"I do wonder (I havent the resource to investigate) whether the Arctic sea ice extent and volume is directly linked to this hyperactivity of the jetstream and solar cycles rather than directly to very small annual increases in temperature caused by AGW." Of course. AGW changes circulation patterns; that's well known. So it's not the change in global mean that has the biggest effect in the Arctic, or in any other given location; it's that plus the effect of those circulatory shifts. For example, the expansion of the Hadley cell is likely to prove quite problematic for massive numbers of people over the coming decades. It's an *indirect* consequence of AGW. There is some evidence that the expansion of the Hadley cells is related to climate change.[2] The majority of earth's driest and arid regions are located in the areas underneath the descending branches of the Hadley circulation around 30 degrees latitude.[3] Both idealised and more realistic climate model experiments show that the Hadley cell expands with increased global mean temperature (perhaps by 2 degrees latitude over the 21st century [4]); this can lead to large changes in precipitation in the latitudes at the edge of the cells.[3] Scientists fear that the ongoing presence of global warming might bring changes to the ecosystems in the deep tropics and that the deserts will become drier and expand.[4] As the areas around 30 degrees latitude become drier, those inhabiting that region will see less rainfall than traditionally expected, which could cause major problems with food supplies and livability.[5]
Indeed, a very nice and very timely summary. Thanks once again, Neven. It has been interesting to watch the late season 'surge'. I for one was not particularly expecting it, though I believe some here did.
"...if sea ice that killed the expedition was still there, they wouldn't have found one of the ships." Indeed! It's a fascinating story all 'round, and I'll be looking for followups. Of course, as regulars here have probably sussed out, I'm a bit of a sucker for history.
Toggle Commented Sep 10, 2014 on PIOMAS September 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Wow, quite the outbreak of zombie trolls. Too bad, but that's life. IMO, there is no need to whack every mole at length here; perhaps the creation of ASIB 'borehole' or it equivalent (the forum subhead idea isn't bad) is warranted. It almost (but not quite) makes me hesitate to link to something OT but interesting, already referred to be wayne above: the discovery of one of Franklin's lost ships. (They haven't been able to tell, yet, whether it's the Erebus or the Terror.) According to the story, there's an irony here, in that the relatively greater ice coverage of much of the NWP this year helped the discovery, by eliminating more northerly potential search areas, and thus concentrating attention a bit more where this wreck was found.
Toggle Commented Sep 10, 2014 on PIOMAS September 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
"If the ice gains additional volume in 2015 and then additional volume in 2016, perhaps the PIOMAS team needs to consider either the angle of the trend line or if it should not be linear…" I don't think it's likely unless the gains were awfully big; the preceding numbers were so far below the trend line. What we're seeing now looks more like reversion to the trend, for now at least. And I suspect that it's rather more likely that we won't see gains again next year.
Toggle Commented Sep 5, 2014 on Ever sailed to 85N? at Arctic Sea Ice
Yeah, I posted the "Weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by Arctic sea-ice loss" link to RC the other day. I'd really like to see the full paper, though.
Nice animation, Gerg! Thanks.
Toggle Commented Sep 5, 2014 on Ever sailed to 85N? at Arctic Sea Ice
This link just came up on RC, and will be of interest here. It's an observational study of the albedo effects of the declining ASI: In summary, this study demonstrates a close relationship between SSM/I sea ice cover and CERES planetary albedo during the CERES record (2000–2011), thereby independently corroborating the passive microwave satellite observations of sea ice retreat. We find consistent agreement between these satellite observations, a climate model, and in situ surface observations. Using the relationship between SSM/I and CERES measurements to extend the albedo record back in time, we find that during 1979–2011 the Arctic darkened sufficiently to cause an increase in solar energy input into the Arctic Ocean region of 6.4 ± 0.9 W/m2, equivalent to an increase of 0.21 ± 0.03 W/m2 averaged over the globe. This implies that the albedo forcing due solely to changes in Arctic sea ice has been 25% as large globally as the direct radiative forcing from increased carbon dioxide concentrations, which is estimated to be 0.8 W/m2 between 1979 and 2011. The present study shows that the planetary darkening effect of the vanishing sea ice represents a substantial climate forcing that is not offset by cloud albedo feedbacks and other processes. Together, these findings provide direct observational validation of the hypothesis of a positive feedback between sea ice cover, planetary albedo, and global warming. (Paragraph breaks added for online clarity, footnotes redacted.)
Toggle Commented Aug 19, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
"The NW passage looks about as choked with ice as it has been the last decade." There is quite a bit of ice, but then again, if my memory serves (always a dicey proposition) there's a heck of a lot less than about a week ago. We'll see...
Toggle Commented Aug 16, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
Oops! Yogi is "great," but not "late!" Wouldn't want him to boycott my funeral.
Toggle Commented Aug 10, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks for another fine summary, Neven. I'm not surprised to find yet another surprise around the most recent bend in the ice road--at the risk of sounding a bit like the late great Yogi Berra.
Toggle Commented Aug 10, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
OT for sea ice, but possibly of interest to some here--I've just published an essay mulling the denialist meme of 'puny humans.' Comments welcomed--particularly if you spot a mis-statement of some sort!
Toggle Commented Aug 9, 2014 on Poof, it's gone at Arctic Sea Ice
Kevin's comment sounds like a pretty good insight to me. We'll see how well it plays out.
Toggle Commented Aug 3, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 6: slow times at Arctic Sea Ice
OT, but I don't really 'do' the Forum much. Regarding the "WW II dip", Hank Roberts recently posted an interesting paper on RC which linked GMST during (and immediately following) the War years to the near-collapse of fishing activity in the North Atlantic, to the subsequent recovery of the fish stocks, and then to (relatively) rapid oceanic drawdown of CO2. Don't have the link, but I thought it was a fascinating idea.
Toggle Commented May 31, 2014 on Greenland 2013 in review at Arctic Sea Ice
Heh, am I reading this chart wrongly or is there a bit of a 'flush' going on right now?
Toggle Commented May 22, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 1: melt pond May at Arctic Sea Ice
By the way, I couldn't access the site last evening because of the DDOS attack that took much of Typepad's operation down for the second time in a few weeks. (Didn't notice anything the first time!) Welcome back!
Toggle Commented May 20, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 1: melt pond May at Arctic Sea Ice