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dorlomin
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Hot hot hot off the press. http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_Chapter04.pdf
Toggle Commented Sep 30, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
I remember when people started blaming 2007 on black carbon. . .just grasping at straws if you ask me. Good luck with telling Jason Box that his dark snow project is grasping at straws.
To anyone who thinks science is too conservative there is an easy solution. Do your own research and publish it.
as we approach a hothouse climate. You going to have to run this one past me again. What is the scientific definition of a 'hothouse climate' and when do we reach it.
Toggle Commented Jul 28, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
Where is all the enormous amount of heat that went into that change of state going to go once the melting is over? Every winter, it will be radiated into the universe.
Toggle Commented Jul 28, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
Again, no particular sign of methane taking off. There's been a slight uptick since 2007, after a decade of near-zero growth, but not at anything close to the rates that prevailed prior to the mid-1980s. 07 is just after the whole fracking for gas in places like the Barnett shale. There may be no connection but it is also possible that some of that uptick comes from the hundreds of new wells drilled a year.
Toggle Commented Jul 28, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
http://cires.colorado.edu/events/lectures/ruddiman/ A link covering the discussion of the 'early Anthropocene.' You can follow links in it to more technical papers.
Toggle Commented Jul 28, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
I don't get how that supports blaming humans for the warming at all... I recomended Bill Ruddimans text book. He has in fact produced a brilliant theory to explain why Holocene CO2 levels and temperature have not followed the pattern of previous interglacials. Something so obvious its embarrassing we missed it. Agriculture. Huge amounts of CO2 absorbing biomass have been cut down, the UK was for example one huge broadleaf forest, now it is mostly agricultural fields. Also the arrival of flooding rice paddies to inhibit weed growth created huge amounts of methane. Still nearly the biggest source of human sourced methane on our planet. We have been altering the radiative balance since we discovered metal strong enough to cut down the great wild woods of Eurasia.
Toggle Commented Jul 28, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
To follow up on Kevin O'Niell's comment and to support what I have said earlier, here is a graphic of the insolation at 65N for June\July.(roughly Iceland latitude.) You can see we are talking 40 watts per square meter for the early holocene.
Toggle Commented Jul 28, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
@ michael sweet You cite a paper that is ten years old to support your claim that it was warmer previously in the Holocene than it is now The paper has over 130 cites. Someone thinks it is worthwhile. If you disagree with it can you please show me the source you are using that says I am wrong. I am ever interested in expanding my knowledge. We analyze the global variations in the timing and magnitude of the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) and their dependence on various forcings in transient simulations covering the last 9000 years (9 ka), performed with a global atmosphere-ocean-vegetation model. In these experiments, we consider the influence of variations in orbital parameters and atmospheric greenhouse gases and the early-Holocene deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice sheet (LIS). Considering the LIS deglaciation, we quantify separately the impacts of the background melt-water fluxes and the changes in topography and surface albedo. In the analysis we focus on the intensity of the maximum temperature deviation relative to the preindustrial level, its timing in the Holocene, and the seasonal expression. In the model, the warmest HTM conditions are found at high latitudes in both hemispheres, reaching 5 °C above the preindustrial level, while the smallest HTM signal is seen over tropical oceans (less than 0.5 °C). This latitudinal contrast is mostly related to the nature of the orbitally-forced insolation forcing, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379112002168 There is a great deal of evidence for a warmer than current arctic and high latitudes in the early holocene. Given summer sunshine would have been producing something like 40 watts a square meter more this is not really a surprise to anyone.
Toggle Commented Jul 28, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
Proxy data cannot be that precise, because it can only tell you general information, subject to deposition of fossil micro-organisms, which is itself subject to any number of things, such as ocean currents and predation before deposition, or catastrophism local or global. Our best proxies are from ice cores. The level of detail in them is largely about the thickness of annual snow accumulation. For many, especially younger, we can get pretty detailed even down to years. Perhaps if you read up on the subject you may have less of a confused scatter gun approach to it. I would recomend William Ruddiams Earth's Climate: Past and Future as a good place to start. http://www.amazon.co.uk/Earths-Climate-William-F-Ruddiman/dp/0716737418
Toggle Commented Jul 28, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
I also forgot to mention Tunguska meteor/comet event, whatever it was. And it's also coincidentally another T name. This too put a lot of anti-greenhouse agent in the atmosphere, Tunguska was an ariel explosion. There is no crater so their would have been no ejecta to reach the stratosphere. What "anti-greenhouse agent's" do you imagine it generated?
Toggle Commented Jul 28, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
Why does the sea level record over the past several thousand years shows a ridiculously sharp increase about 8,000 years ago It shows a slow down 8000 years ago. Before the the giant ice sheets such as the Fennoscandian and the Laurentide were melting back. This is a very dynamic process that can alter in speed for a variety of reasons including large parts of it reaching a low enough altitude to accelerate the melting or more rain than snow falling on it in summer. You may be refering to the famed Melt pulse 1A. But that was about 14 000 years ago and likely related to a warm stadial (Bølling-Allerød), this alone is likely a major part of the explanation.
Toggle Commented Jul 28, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
No matter human or clathrate sources, it is there and it is real, It does matter for your claims. You have shown some images of NH methane levels and used them as evidnence for something. I am suggesting that they dont really back up your claim the way you seem to think it does.
Toggle Commented Jul 28, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
Take a look at the satellite imagery I posted in the Consequences thread in the ASIF that I tagged above. What does it show? That in the dark northern winter there its lots of CH4a above the 70N line. This we know. That the global baseline of CH4 is rising. This we know. You have to identify the null hypothesis and address it, that this is just an increase from increased industrialization or natural sources other than the arctic are reacting to a warming world. We have a heavy duty to the public to be not 100% but 110% sure of everything we communicate to them in terms of climate. Every i dotted and t crossed. We are asking so much, we have to be ruthless among ourselves in terms of our standards. Sorry I have to be the bad guy here. But this is so important.
Toggle Commented Jul 27, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
What you are experiencing has a name. It is called denial Deniall Quinn?
Toggle Commented Jul 27, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
Milankovich cycles were slower Time, It takes lots and lots of time to heat oceans. Previous interglacial had that time. We don't. biomass of land and (especially) ocean capture of carbon was approximately 10X more abundant than now. Where do you get this figure from. Solar cycles coupled with variable AMOC freshening provided a short term albedo pulse increase Hand waving. It should also be noted that, according to several the current Milankovich cycle, we should be heading down into another Ice Age. And 'several' others disagree.
Toggle Commented Jul 27, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
The buildup of CH4 beneath the frozen cap wasn't released during the Holocene Thermal Maximum because of the time required for the heat pulse from the inundation of the ESAS to work it's way down through the frozen cap. Shakhova raised this point back as early as 2010 I believe. So now its not longer current warming that is causing this release? Or are we expected (with no evidence) to believe that the Arctic has spent the past 4000 years getting itself into a state where it is just exactly ready to react like no other interglacial to less warming that it has experienced in previous interglacials? There are gaps in these stories you can drive a truck through. 40 watts per square meter of extra warming does not set of this catastrophy but a couple of years of less ice cover and a small human sourced gas forcing of about 2.5 watts a square meter does?
Toggle Commented Jul 27, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
it would double the amount of methane in the column compared to background levels. You mean add an extra 1/2 a watt of energy per square meter?
Toggle Commented Jul 27, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
High local concentrations mean a local greenhouse effect but can it be big enough to significantly raise local temperatures and produce a local feedback mechanism? No. People are often getting excited about difference of 1 or 2% compared to the background levels. In terms of the Arctic specifically it is completely dwarfed by orders of magnitude by the changes in the sea ice cover.
Toggle Commented Jul 27, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
Surely that's completely disregarding the difference in rate of change between current warming and previous natural warmings? It takes time to warm a lot of water. Especially when that water spends all winter facing the darkness of the empty universe with little more than some CO2 and the occasional cloud to insulate it. Those long, hard, cold winter nights will see huge amounts of energy radiating into space until the ice forms. Previously there was time, thousands of years of time for energy to build in the Arctic Ocean. Even a blow torch wont bring a pot to the boil in seconds. Energy needs time to warm water.
Toggle Commented Jul 26, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
Re the P-T extinction, the trigger was a magmatic province. These emit CO2 at a far slower pace that we are. It started with a prolonged cooling on a planet that was all one continent so huge areas of land were desert. There is also likely to have been some pretty serious sea level fluctuations. The PT is very likely a rather poor analogy at best, especially as there have been other big methane events including relatively recently in the Paleocene Eocene.
Toggle Commented Jul 26, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379103002956 The spatio-temporal pattern of peak Holocene warmth (Holocene thermal maximum, HTM) is traced over 140 sites across the Western Hemisphere of the Arctic (0–180°W; north of ∼60°N). Paleoclimate inferences based on a wide variety of proxy indicators provide clear evidence for warmer-than-present conditions at 120 of these sites. At the 16 terrestrial sites where quantitative estimates have been obtained, local HTM temperatures (primarily summer estimates) were on average 1.6±0.8°C higher than present (approximate average of the 20th century), but the warming was time-transgressive across the western Arctic. As the precession-driven summer insolation anomaly peaked 12–10 ka (thousands of calendar years ago), warming was concentrated in northwest North America, while cool conditions lingered in the northeast. Alaska and northwest Canada experienced the HTM between ca 11 and 9 ka, about 4000 yr prior to the HTM in northeast Canada.
Toggle Commented Jul 26, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
it is currently warmer than at any time in the Holocene. It is a denier meme that it was warmer earlier in the Holocene.Not in the Arctic.
Toggle Commented Jul 26, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
The Arctic has been warmer than today during the holocene. Whats more it was warmer for longer. This mean there were thousands of years for the heat to 'bake' into the deeper ocean. This extra energy came from the Arctic being something like 3 million kilometres closer to the sun during summer than today. At the 60N, the sun was about 40 watts per square meter more energetic than today during, June\ July. Water takes a long time to warm up.
Toggle Commented Jul 26, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice