This is MikePMoffatt's Typepad Profile.
Join Typepad and start following MikePMoffatt's activity
Join Now!
Already a member? Sign In
MikePMoffatt
Recent Activity
Thanks for your posts and suggestions, everyone! I've updated the blog to include what we know and don't know about these notes.
I posted some additional information about the notes. Hope this helps: http://www.swontario.ca/2014/03/what-we-know-and-what-we-dont-about-the-16-weldon-notes.html
Thanks for your help, everyone! Really appreciate it. I still have way too many slides. I still need to pare some down. Never realized how difficult it would be to reduce so many years of research into a 1 hour public lecture.
1 reply
Whoops - I was trying to think through what it would look like in Canadian context. Should have made that clearer.
1 reply
I haven't seen any attempts to quantify it, but I suspect corporate welfare has gotten worse in the last few years. Surely the Fraser Institute would have these numbers - I will have to check.
1 reply
I would not advocate a full elimination either - far, far too many unintended consequences.
1 reply
Yeah, I didn't label them too clearly. I can't seem to navigate Excel 2007 very well. First chart shows taxable income (X-axis) vs. amount paid in OHP (Y-axis). Third chart shows taxable income (Y-axis) vs. % of total income paid as OHP. So the third chart isn't a marginal rate, it's an average one. At an income level of $50,000 you pay $600 in OHP, so the avg. rate is 1.2%.
1 reply
Hi Kelvin, Yep - I did it as a line chart. Thanks for the tip! I'll see if I can get that to work.
1 reply
"Or should you just reject a paper by someone not smart enough to hide their (low-rank) identity on principle?" Ha! As a game theory, I'm embarrassed that I hadn't thought of that.
1 reply
I've refereed a number of papers in the past and you can usually tell who the author(s) are because they cite themselves and their advisors heavily. If anyone gets a paper with 3 or more references to me in it, they can be 100% sure I wrote it. Of course, this method doesn't work too well if the author is someone like, say, Greg Mankiw, who is going to be heavily cited anyway. But if a virtual unknown keeps getting cited then you can be pretty sure that virtual unknown is the one who wrote the paper.
1 reply
It's all in the branding.
1 reply
Thanks for the link and the kind words! I still blog (sometimes) - I'm at Worthwhile Canadian Initiative: http://worthwhile.typepad.com/ Though I have to admit my blogging output is way, way down.
1 reply
Also I don't think the differencebetween a program cut and an effiency saving is well defined here. The easiest way for the governmentto reduce expenditure is through attrition.Say 25 000 civil servants retire and you don't replace them. Is that an efficiencysaving or a program cut?
1 reply
Also, I forgot to mention: "This suggests (I argue) that what economists call microeconomists is NOT micro - it is meso economics - as they study industry structure at the mezzanine level in between the firm and macro econ. Micro economics - properly understood - is in fact, business strategy (grounded in Michael Porter and as you noted, I.O. or Industrial Org). And then to really annoy my marketing colleagues, I tell the students that marketing is merely the way that we teach Bus Strat at 2nd year - a preliminary understanding or introduction to business strategy - which they will study more deeply at 4th year. :)" I couldn't possibly agree with this more. Well put!
1 reply
Thanks for the kind words! Although I seem to spend all day playing on Twitter, I'm far from an expert on social media issues. I should ask my wife your question - she'd probably have a better answer than I would. But for any kind of marketing/communications, the first question you need to ask yourself is "what are we trying to accomplish with this?" Ian is bang on when he says: "At that point, messaging does not help - if you do not know who you are or what you stand for." It seemed this election a lot of candidates were on Twitter because they felt they had to be on Twitter. But they weren't using it for anything meaningful - just a bunch of tweets on how great it is to meet everyone at the door, etc. Social media is a means to an end, not the end itself. (In other words, the medium is *not* the message) You see this a lot in the private sector as well. The Onion had a great parody of this. "And the Liberals?" It's really tough. My message would have been around good, moderate Canadian governance. Admittedly that's not a particularly inspiring message. Andrew Potter had a good piece describing the difficulties of pitching a middle-of-the-road message. I do think hammering the Tories on 'trust' issues was a giant mistake. I think painting them more as reckless would have done better, if coupled with a budget proposal that would have quickly eliminated the deficit. They have a lot more credibility than there than they do on trust issues. I don't want to make too much out of this. There's a lot of pieces out there that are summing up the Liberals problems down to one single point. As a marketing person this was the one point I happened to notice and can speak to.
1 reply
True, you do have to consider the counterfactual. But it's a pretty big leap to assume they'd retain 100%. 80-90% seems more realistic.
Toggle Commented May 3, 2011 on Predictions vs. Reality in London at Moff-Thoughts
From your first message I thought you were saying that 10 000 people got confused any voted for the wrong Ferguson. Anyhow, it'd be close. They wouldn't get all 32 000, since some would stay home, vote for other parties, etc. You can't just add them together and say this is what a combined party would get. A good example of this would be when E May ran into NS and the Liberals didn't field a candidate. Another example would be when PC + CA merged to form CPC. The combined vote total was down 6 points the next election. There's always a loss.
Toggle Commented May 3, 2011 on Predictions vs. Reality in London at Moff-Thoughts
Even if you take 10 000 votes away from Peter -> Doug, Holder still wins by over 1 000. It was a rout. The NDP would have to not run a candidate entirely for the Liberals to win (since some NDP people would stay home or migrate to the Greens).
Toggle Commented May 3, 2011 on Predictions vs. Reality in London at Moff-Thoughts
Hi Phil, I'm talking about both baseball insiders and outsiders and political insiders and outsiders. I think you're misunderstanding my argument.
1 reply
I wonder if there is a topic where we'd have even 2 of us vehemently disagreeing with each other? I once suggested that Stephen and I do a 'Coyne vs. Wells' type podcast. Problem is it would be 20 minutes of us showing obvious frustration with various members of the media and every political leader in Canada. I don't think it'd make for great viewing.
1 reply
"Check the numbers on enrollment in the various departments at universities these days. The humanities have been largely decimated while business colleges are bloated. Good writing skills are far more valuable than powerpoint skills, so I fail to understand why the change." Business schools are starting to understand this as well. My colleague at Ivey, Jana Seijts, has been doing an excellent job in improving the communication skills in HBA students. Ivey is probably more progressive than other business schools in this regard, but overall it's an area where B-schools recognize the need to improve.
1 reply
2010-11: $29.7B 2011-12: $19.7B Put me down under optimist, I guess.
1 reply
One point I forgot to mention in the write-up: This is another piece of evidence (if we ever needed any) against the flypaper theory of taxation. Although consumers are the ones be taxed, some of the tax is clearly being passed to business. Note that this result is strictly an empirical one - no theory is used in obtaining that result.
1 reply
Thanks - much appreciated! I guess now I'll have to discuss more economics in the news, and less on stories on how London, Ontario Neo-Nazis are protesting water fluoridation. (yes, that actually happened).
1 reply