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Definitely, Yvan. The last word about this hasn't been said yet. By the way, tomorrow a great workshop starts with a huge amount of interesting presentations: Polar Prediction Workshop. The presentations are going to be streamed and the stream will be available here. Things start tomorrow at 9:00am EDT, which is 15:00 o'clock CET, I believe. I hope to catch some of those presentations. Nice follow-up to the stuff I saw at EGU.
Toggle Commented yesterday on EGU2016, my impressions at Arctic Sea Ice
Just like last year, I had the opportunity and time to visit the European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2016. There were several sessions on subjects related to the cryosphere and remote sensing, but most of the interesting Arctic sea ice-related stuff was happening on Thursday. So, that's when I went... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks, navegante. I'll be doing another update after the weekend.
Toggle Commented 4 days ago on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
It looks like it wasn't counted for some reason or other in previous years. As Hudson Bay completely melts out every year, ice can't get much thicker than 2 metres there (unless there's lots of ridging due to wind).
Last month I made a comparison of CryoSat-2 sea ice volume distribution maps for the 2015/2016 Winter analysis, but it was off because the dates didn't exactly match. Better images have emerged during this year's General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (more on that later this week): These images... Continue reading
Posted Apr 24, 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
At the EGU press conference I was at today, there was also a scientist who explained how Arctic sea ice loss would lead to increased wavy activity and thus more coastal erosion in the second half of this century. I hesitated for a while during the Q&A, but finally said: Maybe I shouldn't ask this, but what will increased wave activity do to the East Siberian Arctic Shelf and the methane clathrates therein. I almost felt ashamed asking about it! ;) :D
Toggle Commented Apr 21, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
and now my original comment has disappeared. Thanks for letting me know. I've released your comment from the spam bucket. And other comments as well. Not many comments end up in the spam bucket nowadays, but some occasionally do. I don't get notified of this, and it's a bit of a drag for me to check. So, please let me know (through mail or here) that a comment is stuck, and I'll release it. the link is to an article about a prediction by the Alfred Wegener Institute saying that it is likely that we will have a new record low this year having studied the current state of the ice. wanted to draw your attention to this Neven feel free to delete as it is off topic for the thread. I was at that very same press conference today! I was astounded, as usually these press conferences are about what happened last year, but this was actually about the past winter and how things aren't looking good at the moment (at the same time not implying that a new record low minimum is a done deal). I'll have more on this too in days to come. Lots of interesting info at EGU this year.
Toggle Commented Apr 21, 2016 on Meanwhile, on the other side at Arctic Sea Ice
Lately the focus has been on the Beaufort Sea where a high-pressure area has caused the ice pack to crack on a massive scale, even earlier than in previous years, with ice being transported away from the North American coast (see here). But such a large and persistent high-pressure system... Continue reading
Posted Apr 20, 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Bob Grumbine writes in at WUWT: Data outage 1600 UTC on April 15th to 0740 UTC on the 16th. And apparently this graph doesn’t respond well to data voids.
Toggle Commented Apr 16, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks, Jim. That's good news.
Toggle Commented Apr 16, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
The same goes for the JAXA SIE map on ADS-NIPR. Again, let's hope there's nothing wrong with AMSR2!
Toggle Commented Apr 16, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
Looking at the Uni Bremen sea ice concentration map, it seems one swath is missing. This happens occasionally, so let's wait and see what happens tomorrow.
Toggle Commented Apr 16, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven, the legend to the graph I posted says that it is bases on AMSR-2.. Indeed! I'm sorry, Zenightowl, I assumed you were talking about SSMI/S based graphs. I don't know what's wrong with this one (and for some reason or other the JAXA graph has disappeared from the ASIG, although the HTML is still there, as is the graph), but it definitely can't be real. Here's to hoping there's nothing wrong with AMSR2!
Toggle Commented Apr 16, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
Zenightowl, all the graphs that rely on passive microwave data provided by the SSMI/S sensor are in error (see this previous comment for a link to the NSIDC explanation). The only source of correct passive microwave data is the one based on AMSR-2, like JAXA, Uni Hamburg and Wipneus. At some point those other data sets will receive data from another sensor (hopefully SSM/I again), but it can take a while. Fortunately, the melting season hasn't kicked into a higher gear yet. The NSIDC, CT, etc, have until the end of May, as far as I am concerned.
Toggle Commented Apr 16, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven , you and Scribbler. Link up ,you both are flea free. That's why your threads are so productive. And his as well. You throw the bums off. Thanks, CB. There aren't that many bums really, or at least, not that kind of bums.
Toggle Commented Apr 15, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi, Dean. Yes, the data is faulty due to a failed sensor (see here). The reason those CT graphs are still being updated, is perhaps that they haven't noticed, as these things are usually automated. Or perhaps they just let things continue until the matter is resolved by their data provider. Interestingly, some people, like Judith Curry, thought for a while that global sea ice area was making a remarkable comeback. :-D
Toggle Commented Apr 15, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
It's been a week since I announced that the ice in the Beaufort Sea was going to come under early pressure. Here's a quick update on what has happened so far, how the forecast played out, and what the short-term conditions for this part of the Arctic will be. As... Continue reading
Posted Apr 15, 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Bill Fothergill has trouble posting and asked me to post this for him: As they go sailing past Point Barrow (Nuvuk), those adventurous souls might even get to glimpse the odd moose or two. With climate change, the tundra is gradually melding into something a tad more arboreal, and hence allowing these giants of the deer family to expand their range poleward. (Let's see if I've managed to beat Colorado Bob to the punch for a change.)
Wow, A-Team, I thought that text had flowed out of your sarcasm pen. I should've known it's real, as I've worked on a cruise ship for a short period (in the Caribbean). This is the AGW problem in a nutshell.
I've asked Ruth Mottram about the differences between the way DMI and NSIDC measure ice sheet melt as a percentage of total cover and here's her reply: We have looked at the dates Marco mentioned and found they did not pass our (admittedly rather arbitrary) threshold of 10% of the ice sheet area melting though it came fairly close. The 5th and 6th April 2012 both had about 9% of the area melting in our model, days either side had about 3% melt area. To answer your question on the NSIDC and DMI Greenland melt products: The two products are complimentary as the NSIDC method is essentially a satellite based estimate of where melt is occurring based on passive microwave scatter, whereas our SMB and melt estimates come from a model. The surface model is driven by a weather forecast model, which has observational data assimilated into it, but with no observations directly assimilated from the ice sheet surface. Nonetheless we are pretty confident it does a good job in describing the melt area as, when the NSIDC page is live, the two are often rather similar. The promice stations on the ice sheet also confirm that the HIRLAM/HIRHAM model performs pretty well in characterizing the ice sheet weather. We hope to produce a paper showing this and documenting the model system soon. Two further differences between the two products that may cause a divergence in results: 1) We use different ice masks, ours is based on a very thorough mapping of the ice sheet carried out by Michele Citterio and Andreas Ahlstrøm at GEUS, the NSIDC one is older and in most places has a larger ice sheet area. I think it may be based on an old USGS map of Greenland as our previous ice mask had some similar problems. This would probably mean that the NSIDC product shows a larger melt area than the model. 2) The resolution of the two data products is also different, our model is run at 5km, the NSIDC product calculates gridded brightness temperatures for grid cells of 25 x 25km. This means you may get a different percentage area of the ice sheet when comparing melt across grid cells. I'm adding this answer to the blog post.
Toggle Commented Apr 13, 2016 on Greenland under early pressure too at Arctic Sea Ice
Sure, go ahead.
Toggle Commented Apr 13, 2016 on Winter analysis addendum at Arctic Sea Ice
Robertscribbler has a follow-up post: The Greenland Summer Melt Season Just Started in April And Climate Central reports: Greenland's Melt Season Started Nearly Two Months Early
Toggle Commented Apr 13, 2016 on Greenland under early pressure too at Arctic Sea Ice
Yes, there is an official word on the NSIDC website: NSIDC has suspended daily sea ice extent updates until further notice, due to issues with the satellite data used to produce these images. The vertically polarized 37 GHz channel (37V) of the Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSMIS) on the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F-17 satellite that provides passive microwave brightness temperatures is providing spurious data. The 37V channel is one of the inputs to the sea ice retrieval algorithms, so this is resulting in erroneous estimates of sea ice concentration and extent. The problem was initially seen in data for April 5 and all data since then are unreliable, so we have chosen to remove all of April from NSIDC’s archive. It is unknown at this time if or when the problem with F-17 can be fixed. In the event that the sensor has permanently failed, NSIDC is working to transition to either the DMSP F-18 or possibly the JAXA Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) on the Global Change Observation Mission – Water (GCOM-W) satellite. Transitioning to a different satellite will require a careful calibration against the F-17 data to ensure consistency over the long-term time series. While this transition is of high priority, NSIDC has no firm timeline on when it will be able to resume providing the sea ice time series. A switch to AMSR2 wouldn't bee too great, because if everyone starts to rely on that and it goes boom too... Of course, there will always be other (non-passive microwave) sensors to observe Arctic sea ice, but changes should be kept as small as possible.
Toggle Commented Apr 13, 2016 on Greenland under early pressure too at Arctic Sea Ice
When I posted that weather forecast for the Arctic in the Beaufort under early pressure blog post a few days ago and said very large anomalies are forecast for Greenland and Baffin Bay, it didn't really occur to me just how exceptional that temperature anomaly was going to be for... Continue reading
Posted Apr 12, 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
No need to be polite Neven. J H Kunstler makes a living calling 'em like he sees 'em and for a moment there, I thought that that was who I was reading. Well done sir. Well done. Thanks for the compliment. I used to read Kunstler's stuff regularly. I think he might appreciate the word shrimp-o-naise. ;-) Principled stands and example setting aside, the solution for reducing global emissions has to ultimately be a top down enforcement of new laws. There will never be any top down law making or enforcing thereof, if we at the bottom sheepishly accept this kind of stuff from the people who are most responsible and who have all the real power. AGW is also a social-cultural problem caused by decades of consumerist brainwashing, and it's this kind of opulence that sets the whole thing in motion. If I were younger, I would perhaps take more of a stand than just blogging about it, but I'll support anyone who will (non-violently) oppose this. Sure, let that cruise ship sail the Northwest Passage, just to show that it's possible and that this is insane in itself, a hallmark of how far things have already come. But along the way, every step of the way, everyone on that cruise ship needs to be made to understand how shameful the whole charade is. I don't know, maybe I'll fire off a mail to the cruise company. It's a start.