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Neven
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Don't forget to ask guest blogger Steve Bloom what you would like to see him report from the 2014 AGU Fall Meeting. ----- Recent volume data as observed by the European Space Agency's CryoSat-2 satellite will be presented at AGU. The BBC reports: Arctic sea ice volume holds up in... Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Arctic Sea Ice
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A while ago, commenter and now guest blogger Steve Bloom offered to visit the 2014 American Geophysical Union's Fall Meeting, starting tomorrow and ending on Friday, and report for the ASIB on interesting presentations concerning the Arctic. Unfortunately the AGU Public Information Office has turned down our request for a... Continue reading
Posted 5 days ago at Arctic Sea Ice
One would expect the CO2 level to rise with ocean temperature because the solubility of the ocean decreases as its temperature rises. One would expect the CO2 level to rise when Gigatons of carbon are burnt and emitted every year to keep human civilisation in its current economic set-up going. The oceans are a carbon sink and take up a large part of these CO2 emissions (with the added effect of making them become less alkaline/more acid). But you are indeed right that when the oceans stop taking up part of that excess CO2 in the atmosphere, the CO2 concentration will rise even faster. Under a business-as-usual scenario, that is. So, what might be causing the rise in ocean temperature? Perhaps, it's just hysteresis. Do you mean inertia?
Toggle Commented Dec 9, 2014 on PIOMAS November 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: The situation compared to last month hasn't changed much, with the 2014 trend line following that of 2008... Continue reading
Posted Dec 7, 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Here's the first open thread of the 2014/2015 freezing season, beginning with the last comment on the latest PIOMAS thread by commenter Clare: I just wanted to help spread the word about this climate related fund-raising project, last 4 days & they are 3/4 the way there! CLIMATE DOCUMENTARY THIN... Continue reading
Posted Nov 19, 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Thanks for chiming in, Philip Cohen. You've explained it well. I see recovery as becoming healthy, like a patient or something. This is not the case (yet) with Arctic sea ice. A rebound to me is like a ball bouncing up and down. Now it's bouncing up, and like Bert van den Berg says, at some point it will bounce down again. In theory, the bounces become smaller until the ball lies on the floor. But to stretch the analogy further: before the ball stops bouncing and stays on the floor (ie Arctic becomes ice-free for all practical purposes), it already becomes increasingly difficult to keep dribbling. Anyone who has played basketball, knows this. In other words: the consequences of Arctic sea ice loss are already happening. They don't start when the Arctic becomes ice-free. That's 'just' an iconic image that can't be wished away.
Toggle Commented Nov 15, 2014 on PIOMAS November 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: The 2014 trend line is showing the same curve as previous years, which means it stays well above... Continue reading
Posted Nov 8, 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Neven, time for that first sign of Winter, Open Thread No. 1? Absolutely, Lodger. I just want to squeeze the next PIOMAS post in, and then I'll open the first open thread. 1. Global temperatures are having a pause. Ostepop, there is one thing I don't understand. If global temperatures are having a pause, how is it possible that 2014 will probably come in among the warmest (if not the warmest) years on record? And in the absence of an El Niño, it seems. With an inactive Sun. With negative PDO/AMO (or just one of the two, I don't know). And with the BRIC countries still emitting large amounts of aerosols. How on Earth is this possible? I don't get it.
Toggle Commented Nov 5, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
People might know more on the forum. Although we originally planned to buy an old farm and renovate it (that's one of the most ecologically useful stuff you can do when it comes to owning your own house), we decided to build as we couldn't find a good place. So I don't know all that much about old contadini houses and how to heat them efficiently. A friend of mine has an old farm too, with a big wood stove in the kitchen, with all the radiators attached to it to heat the rest of the house. In the bathroom they have a separate small stove with a boiler tank on top of it to heat the shower water.
Toggle Commented Oct 30, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi funky fu. I did consider biomass and pellets, in the sense that I looked into it. Biomass like wood is still an option for us if we're not happy with electrical heating (through infrared emitting panels) or if it's too expensive. If this is the case, we will install a wood oven that transfers 80% of its heat to a warm water boiler (to relieve the heat pump). 100% heat transfer to air would make our house much too hot, as it's so well-insulated. We haven't done this yet to reduce initial building costs, as the whole thing including stainless steel chimney would come in at about 4000-5000 euros. Cost is the main reason we didn't go for wood pellets. Yes, you have more control on the amount of heat that is emitted (which you don't have with big wooden blocks), but the ovens are expensive, you need room for storage, you're dependent on the pellets being supplied, and I heard that they use some stuff to bind the wood pellets that isn't so clean when burned, although I have to admit I never looked into that one, so maybe it's not true. We hope to move in before the end of the year, and then we can start experimenting straight away, as January and February are generally the coldest months around here. I hope we don't freeze. ;-)
Toggle Commented Oct 30, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Steve, that sounds like a great idea! Thanks for considering it. On the minus side I'd be blowing an entire week on this, which is why I'm a little hesitant. I've also never written posts as such, although plenty of long comments. But on the whole I'm sure it would be an interesting experience. I wouldn't worry about that. Your comments are always top notch and very informed. Just write long comments and post them as blog posts. :-) Must present evidence of three (3) bylined news posts in the Earth and space sciences in the past year and a screen shot of blog analytics covering the period of the past year (i.e. Sept. 2013 – Sept. 2014) showing the number of unique visitors or users per month. The screenshot won't be a problem as I have stats and everything in Google Analytics, but I don't know what they mean with "three (3) bylined news posts in the Earth and space sciences in the past year". Do they mean three blog posts? Maybe you could send me an e-mail through the e-mail button at the top of the page, and we can discuss further.
Toggle Commented Oct 28, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Darn it, wrong again. :-B
Toggle Commented Oct 19, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
I'm still here. Sorry for not putting up any blog posts since the minimum. I'm in the final stages of the house building (much later than anticipated, of course). We hope to move in before Christmas etc. That's to say, I hope we will, because my wife said she'll kill me if we don't. It will get really, really quiet then. ;-) Another reason for the blogging silence is that the Arctic Sea Ice Forum is also taking up a chunk of my time. It's not so quiet there. I want to be more active next melting season again. There is so much that needs to be gotten to the bottom to (grammar?)!
Toggle Commented Oct 19, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: As always, (modeled) sea ice volume has also hit its minimum in September: 6810 km3. This number is... Continue reading
Posted Oct 8, 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Thanks for the links, Kevin. And Leslie, sorry about that. I wasn't 100% if mark was genuine or not, and I try to give people the benefit of the doubt. I felt I could do this because there's less traffic to the blog. I also never have had to deal a lot with fake skeptics coming to crow victory when the Arctic sea ice minimum is the 6th lowest on record. There were a couple, and I wanted to show a minimum of hospitality. But, of course, I won't let the blog's comment section go to the Philistines, as we say in Dutch.
Sorry about that, Chris. Have a glass of wine. :-)
That would lead me to think that this is possibly cyclical because we have not reached a point that is more ice free apparently than the years 900 - 1200 and perhaps more recently to a lesser extent the period 1750 - 1850. You base this conclusion on a couple of sentences from a 1964 paper, and extrapolate this anecdotal evidence with very little details to all of the Arctic? Do you have any idea how much the Arctic has changed after 1964, with regards to air temperature and sea ice cover? Can you tell us how much warmer those spots with frozen ground etc have become since then? And what about palaeclimatology after 1964? Have you even looked into that? Where did you get the Lamb paper from? It looks to me that rather than with an enquiring and open mind you set out with predetermined conclusions, ie that it's all cycles and AGW cannot possibly have anything to do with it. I've done my share of trolling, which is why I can be somewhat lenient, but I think this charade has now lasted long enough.
Mark, you might be doing it subconsciously because you have just started following the AGW debate, but you are displaying classic troll behaviour: first spread disinformation and then act indignantly when someone makes this clear in not so nice terms (it's the Internet, keep your pants on), interspersed with further classic fake skeptic memes. Let's leave it at this.
(Vines from Italy grown on the scottish border) Almost 10 (!) years ago this was written on the RealClimate blog: Since a commenter mentioned the medieval vineyards in England, I’ve been engaged on a quixotic quest to discover the truth about the oft-cited, but seldom thought through, claim that the existence of said vineyards a thousand years ago implies that a ‘Medieval Warm Period‘ was obviously warmer than the current climate (and by implication that human-caused global warming is not occuring). This claim comes up pretty frequently, and examples come from many of the usual suspects e.g. Singer (2005), and Baliunas (in 2003). The basic idea is that i) vineyards are a good proxy for temperature, ii) there were vineyards in England in medieval times, iii) everyone knows you don’t get English wine these days, iv) therefore England was warmer back then, and v) therefore increasing greenhouse gases have no radiative effect. I’ll examine each of these propositions in turn (but I’ll admit the logic of the last step escapes me). I’ll use two principle sources, the excellent (and cheap) “Winelands of Britain” by geologist Richard C. Selley and the website of the English Wine Producers. - See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/07/medieval-warmth-and-english-wine/#sthash.UBJdLins.dpuf Anyone interested might want to read the entire blog post.
Mark, spreading misinformation-myths, whether consciously or not, is doing harm, because you might confuse people on a potentially serious issue. It's especially harmful, and perhaps disingenuous, when people take the time to (mostly) politely show you why your statements are wrong, and you then repeat what you have already said in a slightly different shape (the wine in the UK meme, for instance). It'd be a shame if Gideon Low is right in his assessment of your posting behaviour so far in this thread. To remove any doubt, I would appreciate it if you refrain from regurgitating debunked fake skeptic disinformation, while excusing yourself that you don't know exactly and your opinion is as good as anyone's on scientific subjects. Thanks.
I don't mind genuine skepticism one bit, mark.
Mark, Piers Corbyn is an absolute crank. I generally don't like to link to WUWT, but here's the piece on Corbyn. Don't be fooled (too much).
Mark, you should go to WUWT and see what they say about Piers Corbyn there. (a whole degree warmer for over 100 years) A whole degree warmer than what, and where?
To note that Arctic sea ice in general could melt out in one to two warm summers, making this seem like a probable scenario, does not have scientific validity, as the chance of this happening must be very insignificant. At the same time only 10 years ago the chance of 2007, 2011 or 2012 happening was also deemed insignificant. Volume has now increased so much that I also think that we won't be approaching ice-free conditions in coming years, but initial ice state conditions like we've seen in the past couple of years, combined with a year full of persistent freak weather, could do it. That doesn't mean that if it happens 20 years from now, everything is just fine. That would still be inconceivably fast on geological timescales. And like I wrote in the conclusion: The phenomenon of an ice-free Arctic isn't some sort of firing gun, after which the consequences of Arctic sea ice loss start running their course. They have already started and could become more serious in decades to come. An ice-free Arctic only has real importance as an iconic figure, like that photo that was made of Earth by astronauts standing on the Moon. And it's scientifically interesting. But the consequences of the process leading to an ice-free Arctic are most likely already underway.
IJIS SIE is going up now and needs a 43K drop to get to a lower minimum, which is highly unlikely at this late date. Furthermore, the DMI 80N graph shows a first uptick, which is a sign of refreezing. So, I guess that was it for this year. Thanks for watching everyone. I'm looking forward to discussing the coming freezing season and the implications of this second rebound year (especially volume-wise).