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Neven
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JAXA has reported a small drop of 1478 km2, the difference is still 108K km2, and given the change in forecast (higher temps and changing winds in the Barentsz Sea) I think this is it. Barring a 100K+ change being reported tomorrow, of course. :-) An uptick of 21K has been reported by JAXA for yesterday, difference is now 88K. But today is the last chance of an uptick, so it has to be big. :-)
Nnnnevin ... more n's than any other network, or at least more northern nous: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9GZuT3HN6Y Don't post that kind of videos. I need to keep motivated. ;-) Downward trend continues this not being indicative of anything in particular - did Florida just annex this blog? If only! I could use a holiday. :-)
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
JAXA has reported a small drop of 1478 km2, the difference is still 108K km2, and given the change in forecast (higher temps and changing winds in the Barentsz Sea) I think this is it. Barring a 100K+ change being reported tomorrow, of course. :-) What is more concerning is an increasing tendency to publicise records early - especially when some sort of record can be announced. It is perhaps concerning, but this is not an example of it. Do you have any idea how conservative the NSIDC is when it comes to things like calling the maximum? Folks over on the Forum already started speculating about it at the start of the month, and confidence grew every day. Plenty of people called it very early, and I described the possibilities in a March 6th blog post. But the NSIDC called it on March 19th, two weeks later. And you can be sure that they looked at the weather forecast. And even then they added the caveat that a late cold snap might make for a later max, right there in the first paragraph, third sentence. Because by March 19th the record was already a near certainty. The only question was whether the preliminary max would remain standing. It's not a big deal, it's a record of minor importance, stressed by every scientist interviewed in every single media article. They didn't go: A possible record, quick, let's incite a media frenzy and push AGW! The Arctic is pushing AGW. There's no need for hyperbole, as the Arctic is offering plenty of that. So stop whining already! ;-B
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
Waitt another week and perhaps there will be no record, and no media :( No, as I've explained in this blog post and the previous, the record is there. It's the lowest maximum in the NSIDC and JAXA SIE record. This is 100% certain at this point. The only question now is whether it will be the earliest maximum on record as well (for JAXA, it will be a tie for NSIDC). And like I've also said in the comment section of the previous blog post, every media article I've read, quotes scientists saying that a record low maximum in itself doesn't mean all that much in relation to the melting season. All the caveats are there. But when the NSIDC calls the maximum and it's a record low, it's only natural that the media picks this up. You don't wait two weeks to report on who won the Super Bowl either. And it's only normal that a paragraph or two are dedicated to the general situation in the Arctic, which isn't looking particularly good. That's what all of this is about! The fact that you're annoyed by it, says more about you than about anything else.
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
What is my wish, Cincinnatus? And your link leads to a blank page. What does it mean that the GoSL ice gets flushed out?
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
JAXA reports an uptick of 30K, difference now 107K. It's not enough, need more!
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
I think that the video stated that it would be the second earliest maximum. Yes, that's for NSIDC sea ice extent. I believe the record goes back to 1979 or something, and 1996 also had its maximum on February 24th. But it probably had a bit more sea ice than today (understatement). I was referring to JAXA sea ice extent, that has been measured since 2002. Some data sets will have this maximum as the earliest/lowest, some as the second earliest/lowest (CT sea ice area has 2011 as the lowest). Either way, it's very early and low, but this doesn't necessarily mean anything for the melting season up ahead.
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
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Here's a quick update on everything related to our good friend Max. In the past couple of days organisations like the NSIDC, NASA and NOAA have announced the annual event of the Arctic sea ice pack reaching its largest size at the end of the freezing season. This has been... Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Arctic Sea Ice
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JAXA has reported an uptick of 100K in the past two days. The difference is now 137K. But Baffin and St. Lawrence have started to drop, so let's see how far the Arctic can crawl. ;-)
Toggle Commented 4 days ago on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
Always interesting, Philip, not always spectacular. In the short term, that is. Neve, I can't help but notice that your map has an arrow labeled "Saint Lawrence" pointed at the Strait of Belle Isle. I'm assuming that arrow is supposed to point at the Gulf of Saint Lawrence instead? Yes, I pointed in the general direction, not knowing where the Gulf of St. Lawrence is, and too lazy to look it up. But I looked it up now (remorse is a great motivator):
Toggle Commented 6 days ago on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
Whether there's more or less ice depends, of course, on what you compare it against. But the sea ice near the coast of Greenland and the CAA seems to have thickened some more. I'm going to try and give an idea how this freezing season compares to those in previous years, probably somewhere in April.
Toggle Commented 7 days ago on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
It seems as though and alarmist media/activists are yet again crying wolf with headlines like "bad news for ice seals" (btw what's an "ice" seal?) etc.... Hmmmm, I've seen a dozen or so articles in the past two weeks that dealt with the possibility of a record low/early maximum. In each article it was stressed that a low maximum doesn't mean there will be a low minimum. I haven't seen any article mentioning seals or polar bears in relation to the maximum. Differences between the datasets are caused by the following aspects: 1) Datasets don't all use the same satellite sensor, but I believe AMSR-2 on JAXA's GCOM-W1 spacecraft, launched May 18, 2012, is the most sophisticated. 2) The Arctic is divided into grids, and the size of these grids determine the resolution. The smaller the grid, the more precise (in theory). The University of Hamburg puts out experimental data that has a grid resolution of 3.25 (grid measures 3.25 x 3.25 km), that is used by commenter Wipneus to make graphs like the ones in this blog post. For comparison: Arctic Roos uses a 25 km resolution. 3) Different data sets use different land masks and define the total area differently (some include this sea/lake or that sea/lake, others don't). 4) And then there's algorithms. I don't understand any of that stuff, but I believe they're formulae that make sense of the satellite data to determine what is sea ice and what is not. 5) The difference between extent and area is explained here. Area is more accurate, but extent is more trustworthy during the high melt months. Anything else I forgot? Maybe I should write a blog post about this. Someone on the Forum was also puzzled by the differences between data sets.
Toggle Commented 7 days ago on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
NSIDC calls it (sort of ;-) ): On February 25, 2015, Arctic sea ice extent appeared to have reached its annual maximum extent, marking the beginning of the sea ice melt season. This year’s maximum extent not only occurred early; it is also the lowest in the satellite record. However, a late season surge in ice growth is still possible. NSIDC will post a detailed analysis of the 2014 to 2015 winter sea ice conditions in early April.
Toggle Commented Mar 19, 2015 on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
I hear the NSIDC is going to call the maximum today. Finally! ;-)
Toggle Commented Mar 19, 2015 on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
Cryosphere Today reports the 3rd century break of the season, bringing the difference with the prelim down to 433K, so very probably that the max has been reached there too. It would be second lowest, 13.27 million km2 vs 13.14 million km2 in 2011, and the earliest in the 2006-2015 record.
Toggle Commented Mar 19, 2015 on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
JAXA reports yet another drop of 12K. I'd say that it's more than 90% certain that the prelim is not the prelim.
Toggle Commented Mar 19, 2015 on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven has been burned a few years Just one year, LRC! Just one year. Don't make it worse than it is. :-B I do still call the minimums though. That's much easier.
Toggle Commented Mar 18, 2015 on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
No, I don't call it, as a rule. :-B
Toggle Commented Mar 18, 2015 on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
But do we really know SIE to three significant figures? This is largely irrelevant. We're not interested in the 100% exact amount of extent or area. We want to compare to other years. So, if JAXA keeps doing what it does consistently every year, we can compare and have an idea of what's going on. JAXA reports yet another drop of 35K, difference with the prelim max is now 221K. There have to be some serious upticks starting tomorrow, or else the max is a done deal. Which means the melting season has started. Yay. :-)
Toggle Commented Mar 18, 2015 on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
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10 days ago I posted a blog post called Mad max. The title - referring to a very early maximum sea ice extent - ended with a question mark, because it was far from sure whether the preliminary max reached on February 15th would remain standing. This is because of... Continue reading
Posted Mar 17, 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
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the Jaxa SIE stops its faffing about and puts on 69k over two days. Indeed, and the forecast is for more cold and northerlies in the Bering AND the Barentsz. I'm going to try and write an update later today.
Toggle Commented Mar 17, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
Another 24 hours gone, and yet again JAXA reports a minimal drop of 129 km2. It will now take a real shocker to startle the crows. :-)
Toggle Commented Mar 15, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Al, good to read you. JAXA gives the latest SIE (13th March) as more than 250,000 sq km below 15th Feb and there are no years on the JAXA record that have gained/regained that amount of SIE from this date on. All bar 2003 managed less than 150,000 and by 15th March 2003, the gain/regain was below 200,000 and dropping by the day. Yes, but on the other hand, no years on the JAXA record have been as low as now, meaning there's a lot more re-freezing potential. I've seen some things in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday that I'd like to see play out before calling the max. Which of course I won't do. ;-)
Toggle Commented Mar 14, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
The increase has come to a (temporary) halt, as JAXA reports a small drop of 9498 km2. So that's another day gone by and 256K left to go. Man, this is so exciting. ;-)
Toggle Commented Mar 14, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
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Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: The red trend line for 2015 is clearly levelling off during the second half of February, coinciding with... Continue reading
Posted Mar 13, 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
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