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Neven
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I'll see if I can find it, anthropocene. I wanted to update the ASIG anyhow.
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
The recirculating branch that Neven has in in his figure doesn't seem to be very likely if something is placed at the North Pole exactly. You're right, Axel, but keep in mind that the first decade of 1800 saw some very strange winters, with a couple of very strong cyclones stationed just above Iceland, pushing all the ice towards the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. I believe Norwegian Fishermen call this period the 'Ikke is in Fram, myket fisk'-period. I can prove this, as soon as I find the satellite data that's buried somewhere in my 25 TB hard disk raid array. Ah, yes, literary licence, 'tis a lovely thing. ;-)
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
I received an answer from the author: WOW! You guys are awesome. That is an incredible amount of information. I even got some great ideas on how my object gets found. My original thought was that it was frozen in the ice and revealed when a ridge pushed up and it was visible in the face of the ridge. This sent me down a long path of who was there to witness this event, what they were doing up there and how they excavated the object. So my object (sorry for being vague you’ll just have to wait for the book or movie to know what it is) could be left up there, covered in snow for a few years, find its way locked in land based ice in northern Canada and then break free and be spotted by a fisherman. Works for me, literary license and all. Please thank everyone for me.
Toggle Commented 7 days ago on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
Wipneus, thanks for updating your graph, I've added it to the blog post now. Hubert, thanks a lot for catching that error, AND for telling me exactly where it is. I try to dutifully enter new data points in my spreadsheet every day, but failing to do so even once means a lot of intent searching, especially with CT and its unhandy numbering (for muddlers like me).
Toggle Commented Apr 8, 2014 on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Last month's tentative conclusion has definitely been confirmed for now: It seems that last year's rebound has been... Continue reading
Posted Apr 7, 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
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1) either eaten by a whale for breakfast (highly unlikely) I agree that this is unlikely, but lunch or dinner is distinctly possible. --- Maybe the Inuit found it, just like their prophet announced. And according to prophecy the object must be returned to the God of the Pole exactly 215 years later (Maya calculation).
Toggle Commented Apr 7, 2014 on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
It appears typead has changed its sign-in procedure, got a warning of some security hole. I received the warning too. It's probably of a temporary nature, but I 'added an exception'. The answers given echo my answer to the person in question (combined with the image at the top of the post): Circa 1800 the ice was (very likely) a lot thicker than now, so the ice would definitely not melt out the first summer after the object was left there. Instead the ice would move (with floes possibly ridging over each other, which used to make the sea ice tens of metres thick in some places). Now, depending on weather circumstances, the ice that the object was on, could move two ways: Either it would get transported out of Fram Strait, after which it would melt out in the North Atlantic, and the object would sink to the bottom of the sea (unless it were a rubber duck). Or the Beaufort Gyre would move the ice back towards the North of Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago, where it would become very thick multi-year ice. The object could then stay there for many years, but not indefinitely. Unless it somehow got stuck on some ice shelves (like these that are in the process of disappearing after thousands of years).
Toggle Commented Apr 7, 2014 on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
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Here's a question I received some time ago from a reader of this blog who is in the process of writing a novel. I thought it'd be a nice way to pass our time while we wait for the latest PIOMAS update. My answer is basically the either/or image on... Continue reading
Posted Apr 6, 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Welcome, Helen! and of course we need to do a better job at providing data. Like I said, a great job is already being done, but it's never enough! :-) Perhaps we can have a couple more SIPN project members, in addition to Larry Hamilton, guest post here a few times during this melt season? That, of course, would be great. If I'd have more time, I'd like to do interviews as well every once in a while. Perhaps even Skype interviews like Peter Sinclair does, and put those on Youtube. Or something like a weather (hindcast and) forecast. I made a couple of Youtube videos to go along with the written sea ice updates, but it was just too much work, and as a non-English/American speaker it's difficult to do things improvised. But I'm very satisfied with how the blog is right now too, so no one should feel obliged to do anything. I might be able to start doing a bit more once our house is finished.
Toggle Commented Apr 2, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
I thought Neven made it clear yesterday that actually we'd like to be able to download "lots o' data"?! Like DaveB said (welcome BTW), lots of everything. Obviously I prefer graphs and maps because I'm not good with data. I'm really glad that they're putting all of the talks online, because I was out all day, and yesterday was really fascinating. it looked as though "spring melt pond fraction" was in fact the best predictor of September ice extent. Personally, I've got a hunch that the amount of melt ponding during the first half of the melting season is very important for the season's outcome. I wrote about it two years ago: New Data, Melt Ponds on Arctic Sea Ice. I've been trying to get the folks behind this to publish more data, but due to circumstances (lack of funding) they're not pursuing it further. :-(
Toggle Commented Apr 2, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
BTW, can you believe that there's a guy speaking now called Neven as well (not uncommon in former Yugoslavia, but not that common either), and one of his colleagues is called Asif.
Toggle Commented Apr 1, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
If you are party to a group e-mail of participants, Neven, you might like to write to confirm this invitation? I did that once when starting the ASIF, and going by some of the mail addresses there are cryospheric scientists who've become (lurking) members.
Toggle Commented Apr 1, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
Phew, that was quite exciting for me. I felt great until my computer crashed, after that I felt horrible. :-) I believe the webcast can be downloaded later, but I'm not sure.
Toggle Commented Apr 1, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
No, don't throw my presentation in the recycle bin!
Toggle Commented Apr 1, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
And I answered (but I guess that wasn't audible). There's a huge delay, so here's to hoping all goes well.
Toggle Commented Apr 1, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
Will do, idunno. If all goes well, I'll be on in about 30-45 minutes, after the coffee break.
Toggle Commented Apr 1, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks, everyone. Hopefully the webcast and my presentation work out. I've never done one before. bad link to the webcast. Thanks, Jai. Fixed now.
Toggle Commented Apr 1, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
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Tomorrow, April 1st, I'll be doing a short presentation on the Sea Ice Prediction Workshop that will be webcast by UCAR. I'll be talking 10-15 minutes about the ASIB, ASIG and ASIF, and about increasing public interest in Arctic sea ice. You can view the webcast here. --- It was... Continue reading
Posted Mar 31, 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
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And while I was amending, a question popped up: What is better for the ice - or less worse - melt ponds or spots of bare thin ice? :-)
Toggle Commented Mar 27, 2014 on Mission possible at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks, Stefan, I'm amending that part straight away. And thanks for the great pictures!
Toggle Commented Mar 27, 2014 on Mission possible at Arctic Sea Ice
There's a great thread on the ASIF for discussing the potential El Niño, either average or super.
Toggle Commented Mar 26, 2014 on Mission possible at Arctic Sea Ice
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The melting season has just about started (no, I'm not calling the max), but already scientists are out there in different parts of the Arctic doing their thing. Currently there are two eye-catching missions being carried out, both having to do with measuring ice thickness to validate satellite data. The... Continue reading
Posted Mar 26, 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
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there will be live webcasts from next week's 2014 Sea Ice Prediction Workshop in Boulder! I've been asked to hold a small talk (via phone) about the ASIB.
Toggle Commented Mar 26, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Sorry, I thought you were implying I should go to EGU.
Toggle Commented Mar 26, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
If so I'll make some itinerary suggestions relating to this blog's main points of interest. Don't rub it in, please. :-)
Toggle Commented Mar 25, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice