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Neven
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Thanks, Clare. I hope to do more next year, once our house is finished. Of course, it will never be finished. I mean, once we live in it. :-) I rarely hear your opinion on the NAO That's true. I used to watch the AO index a lot, but I rarely do now (just watch SLP forecasts instead). Maybe I should, but first I have to improve my understanding of both AO and NAO (they are somewhat linked, of course). Anyway, commenter Friv on the ASIF mentioned the NAO a lot this year, saying what you say too.
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on ASI 2014 update 6: slow times at Arctic Sea Ice
As reported earlier: I accidentally deleted the PIOMAS 2014 July blog post yesterday. I managed to retrieve it (with the help of TypePad support), restore it and copy the comments below the blog post. Post is now here.
Toggle Commented 4 days ago on ASI 2014 update 6: slow times at Arctic Sea Ice
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Edit July 27th: Yesterday I accidentally deleted this blog post. I managed to retrieve it using Google cache (here). I will try and see if I can retrieve the comments. Apologies for the inconvenience. Edit2: I have copied the comments and pasted them at the end of the blog post.... Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Arctic Sea Ice
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During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has... Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Arctic Sea Ice
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Everyone, I just accidentally deleted the latest PIOMAS update. Will try to restore it (hopefully, need TypePad's help). Sorry for the inconvenience.
As Sea Ice Area is much more accurate than Sea Ice Extent, why is SIE even used? Hi, RenewCP. SIA is actually considered less accurate, because satellite sensors can be fooled into thinking that melt ponds are open water, for instance. Or clouds, etc. They are both useful in their own way, and a lot also depends on what satellite sensor, resolution, algorithm, etc is used.
Toggle Commented 6 days ago on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
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The second Sea Ice Outlook of this year has been published. The SIO is now organized by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (as part of the Arctic research program 'Study of Environmental Arctic Change', or SEARCH), and is a compilation of projections for the September 2014 Arctic sea ice extent,... Continue reading
Posted 7 days ago at Arctic Sea Ice
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Visually quite appealing, but doesn't seem to work all that well on my PC. I don't know if it's a hardware or Internet connection issue. Either way, I regularly watch the CCI ClimateReanalyzer site now.
Toggle Commented Jul 21, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
Link fixed. Thanks for the links.
Toggle Commented Jul 16, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
The Barentz Sea has been ice-free for much of this season and had one of the lowest maximum extents. Yet as you're SST graphs show the ocean surface temps are far, far lower this year than in recent years. Given that in the past an explanation for the hot temperatures was sun beating down on ice free ocean then what would be an explanation for these lower temperatures? Good question, Pete. It has to do with how much heat is brought North through ocean flux. From this blog post I wrote two years ago: We start with the Barents Sea, which of course is of interest because of the cutting-edge research with regards to the influence of warm waters in that region on weather patterns during winter (see WACC overview). The Norwegian Atlantic Current (NwAC), a branch of the North Atlantic Current (itself a continuation of the warm Gulf Stream), splits up into a western and eastern part. The western branch rejoins the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC) further up north, whereas the eastern branch, known as the Norwegian Atlantic Slope Current (NwASC), follows the Norwegian coast, and transitions into the North Cape Current as it passes the Barents Sea Opening (BSO), a 400 km wide passage between Bear Island (Bjørnøya) and the North Cape (see this map from Arctic.io). This is the main source of Atlantic Water (AW) to the Barents Sea, 1.8 to 2 Sv with large interannual variations. It is accompanied by the Norwegian Coastal Current (NCC) which brings in aprroximately 2.6 Sv of water from the Baltic Sea, the North Sea and Norwegian fjords and rivers, that is colder and less salty than AW, but warmer than the Arctic waters. After passing through the BSO a fraction of the inflow from the NwASC recirculates along a short pathway and exits through the BSO again. This is a lot of info, but the images below give an idea of how it works (found here and here). OHF-3This warm Atlantic Water keeps large parts of the Barents Sea from freezing over during winter. This also means that almost all the heat, 67 of 73 TW delivered (Smedsrud et al. 2010), is lost to the atmosphere, and most of the AW leaving the Barents Sea into the Arctic Ocean via St. Anna Trough, east of Franz Josef Land, is already cooled to temperatures below 0°C. In 2010 a positive trend was reported in the temperature of the relatively stable NwASC volume flux, corresponding to a linear increase of 0.5°C in 1992–2009, whereas in the Barents Sea Opening, a temperature increase of 1°C over the period 1997–2006 (to values above 6°C) was reported. A modeling data assimilation study provided estimates of BSO inflow of 3.2 Sv, recirculation in the northern BSO of 1.5 Sv, and the outflows between Novaya Zemlya and Franz Jozef Land and through the Kara Strait of 1.1 and 0.7 Sv, respectively, similar to available observations. Now I don't know why less heat is transported northwards, could be because of some atmospheric pattern. It's also possible that heat is transported, but doesn't show up on the sea surface because of some atmospheric pattern.
Toggle Commented Jul 15, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
Very well-put, Chris Reynolds. I think that in the end we will see that natural variability has played a bigger part in the melting than we thought, which is a good thing, I think. It means our ability to wreck the planet perhaps is not as great as feared. This would be fantastic news, but personally I won't even consider removing that little metal foil off the champagne bottle, let alone uncorking it, until extent, multi-year ice fraction and volume have returned to pre-2005 levels. Or start moving that way, which, despite last year, isn't the case. Volume-wise everything was back to zero (ie no increase) at the start of the melting season. And even though volume currently is higher than the past 4 years, it seems that a lot of the thicker ice has already been moved to Beaufort (correct me on that, Chris R., if necessary), where it can function as a record minimum preventer, but is very vulnerable at the same time. And so it's all about risk management. Do we want to gamble that it's all natural cycles and human civilisation won't be wrecked by the potential consequences of Arctic sea ice loss, and AGW in general? I knew the answer after the 2007 melting season. 2012 should've answered that question for a lot of people. But sometimes loss just ain't enough.
Toggle Commented Jul 15, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
Ostepop, don't trigger my BS sensors too much by inserting denialist myths into the conversation. You should also be careful with making such definite statements about the Arctic. The Arctic has the tendency to... put them in perspective.
Toggle Commented Jul 14, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
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During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has... Continue reading
Posted Jul 13, 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
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You can find him on the Forum, in the extent and area thread.
Toggle Commented Jul 5, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks for the link, Bibken (and CR for fixing).
Toggle Commented Jul 4, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks, Rob. Very interesting, as usual.
Over on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum I have opened two new polls for July, which will run for 10 days: NSIDC 2014 Arctic SIE September minimum: July poll Cryosphere Today 2014 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll Looking forward to your votes!
Toggle Commented Jul 1, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
2014 seems to have opened its Hudson Bay piggy bank, causing IJIS SIE to drop big time. Today the second biggest daily drop in June for the 2005-2014 record: 173K. Biggest drop was 182K on June 8th 2012. 2014 is also second when it comes to century breaks for the melting season so far: 10. 2012 had 19 (!) century breaks so far, but I think Windsat filling in between AMSR-E and AMSR-2 had something to do with that.
Toggle Commented Jun 30, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Bill, do you get a security warning? That's because there's an issue with the security certificate, not with security itself. You can tell your browser to make an exception, or remove the 's' from 'https'.
Toggle Commented Jun 29, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks for the link, Chris. I wouldn't be surprised if at the end of the melting season we go: What if it hadn't started this late? Like every month I'm really curious what PIOMAS will report.
Toggle Commented Jun 29, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
I can't believe nobody commented yet. Well thanks for the analysis Neven :) Thanks, seattlerocks. I guess people are still reading. This is my wordiest ASI update ever. Sorry for that. 1) not much melt ponding, 2) ice pack being dispersed Maybe you meant "ice pack being compacted"? Let me see. Every time I write about CAPIE, I have to sit back and remember how it works. *thinks* Yes, you're right. Fixing as we speak. Thanks.
Toggle Commented Jun 29, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
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During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has... Continue reading
Posted Jun 29, 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
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I agree Rlkittiwake, but I said: "People (including myself) kept voting low, even in August". Last year I learned that extent records don't get broken when there are persistent cyclones during the start of the melting season.
Wayne, I fully agree with what you're saying, but at the same time one of my interests connected to Arctic sea ice is the perception of what is happening with the sea ice and the consequences thereof. For me fake skeptics represent that part of the collective consciousness that keeps it where it is, in denial of reality. There might come a point when Arctic sea ice loss keeps continuing, where they can't wriggle out any longer in a credible way (not that the ones profiting from it, won't try). That could be a sign that the collective consciousness is changing. It has nothing to do with the science of predicting the minimum whatsoever. So you're admitting there's excessive alarmism in the ASIF Well, there was last year. People (including myself) kept voting low, even in August, when it was becoming clear that all that potential, the huge dispersal and holes all over the ice pack, wouldn't come to fruition and get expressed in extent numbers. At the same time it's understandable that alarmedness about mid- to long-term trends in Arctic sea ice loss - given the extremely rapid loss so far - leads to alarmism regarding the short term trend. Paradoxically, people who are worried about Arctic sea ice loss, also hope it will come faster as a wake-up call (I wrote a piece about that back in 2010: To melt or not to melt). Combine that with how difficult it is to make sense of what is going on and remember enough of recent years as a reference, and you get those low votes. But again, absolutely no one expected last year's massive outlier. Not even the community over at WUWT. And in 2012 it was the other way around. Practically, no one, including me, was expecting that record smashing crash. Which also explains people bracing themselves for the worst one year later. The jury is still out on this year. It looked like a repeat of 2013, though less extreme, but now it doesn't. Who knows what it'll look like in 2 weeks. I still don't think the record will be broken, but it's the Arctic, so mustn't rule it out either (yet).
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The first Sea Ice Outlook of this year has been published. The SIO is now organized by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (as part of the Arctic research program 'Study of Environmental Arctic Change', or SEARCH), and is a compilation of projections for the September 2014 Arctic sea ice extent,... Continue reading
Posted Jun 24, 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
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