This is Neven's Typepad Profile.
Join Typepad and start following Neven's activity
Join Now!
Already a member? Sign In
Neven
Recent Activity
Visually quite appealing, but doesn't seem to work all that well on my PC. I don't know if it's a hardware or Internet connection issue. Either way, I regularly watch the CCI ClimateReanalyzer site now.
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks for your concern, Ashton. I usually specify what I mean with 'good' or 'bad', but sometimes forget to, assuming that everyone knows what I mean. This might be confusing to new readers. In this case and most of the time, when I say 'bad start', I mean 'bad for melting'. As for my position in general: I have stated in this blog post many years ago what I deem good and bad about Arctic sea ice loss. Short summary: I think it's very risky business to have summer sea ice cover disappear in the time span of one human generation, and thus bad. If it's the Pearl Harbour thing (I don't think it will be, even if all the ice goes) that makes society serious enough to start managing the risks in a responsible way, then this would be somewhat good. If one or a couple of melting seasons that don't break records are used by fake skeptics to spread doubt among the public and thus paralyse any meaningful risk managing action that threatens their pocket or free market religion, this would be bad. Heavy melting seasons are very spectacular to watch, and thus fun. So you see. Nothing is either good or bad, there are many sides to Arctic sea ice loss, but when I say 'bad' or 'good' in posts on volume or ASI updates, I almost always use it to mean 'bad/good for melting'. Hope this helps.
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on PIOMAS July 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Link fixed. Thanks for the links.
Toggle Commented Jul 16, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
The Barentz Sea has been ice-free for much of this season and had one of the lowest maximum extents. Yet as you're SST graphs show the ocean surface temps are far, far lower this year than in recent years. Given that in the past an explanation for the hot temperatures was sun beating down on ice free ocean then what would be an explanation for these lower temperatures? Good question, Pete. It has to do with how much heat is brought North through ocean flux. From this blog post I wrote two years ago: We start with the Barents Sea, which of course is of interest because of the cutting-edge research with regards to the influence of warm waters in that region on weather patterns during winter (see WACC overview). The Norwegian Atlantic Current (NwAC), a branch of the North Atlantic Current (itself a continuation of the warm Gulf Stream), splits up into a western and eastern part. The western branch rejoins the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC) further up north, whereas the eastern branch, known as the Norwegian Atlantic Slope Current (NwASC), follows the Norwegian coast, and transitions into the North Cape Current as it passes the Barents Sea Opening (BSO), a 400 km wide passage between Bear Island (Bjørnøya) and the North Cape (see this map from Arctic.io). This is the main source of Atlantic Water (AW) to the Barents Sea, 1.8 to 2 Sv with large interannual variations. It is accompanied by the Norwegian Coastal Current (NCC) which brings in aprroximately 2.6 Sv of water from the Baltic Sea, the North Sea and Norwegian fjords and rivers, that is colder and less salty than AW, but warmer than the Arctic waters. After passing through the BSO a fraction of the inflow from the NwASC recirculates along a short pathway and exits through the BSO again. This is a lot of info, but the images below give an idea of how it works (found here and here). OHF-3This warm Atlantic Water keeps large parts of the Barents Sea from freezing over during winter. This also means that almost all the heat, 67 of 73 TW delivered (Smedsrud et al. 2010), is lost to the atmosphere, and most of the AW leaving the Barents Sea into the Arctic Ocean via St. Anna Trough, east of Franz Josef Land, is already cooled to temperatures below 0°C. In 2010 a positive trend was reported in the temperature of the relatively stable NwASC volume flux, corresponding to a linear increase of 0.5°C in 1992–2009, whereas in the Barents Sea Opening, a temperature increase of 1°C over the period 1997–2006 (to values above 6°C) was reported. A modeling data assimilation study provided estimates of BSO inflow of 3.2 Sv, recirculation in the northern BSO of 1.5 Sv, and the outflows between Novaya Zemlya and Franz Jozef Land and through the Kara Strait of 1.1 and 0.7 Sv, respectively, similar to available observations. Now I don't know why less heat is transported northwards, could be because of some atmospheric pattern. It's also possible that heat is transported, but doesn't show up on the sea surface because of some atmospheric pattern.
Toggle Commented Jul 15, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
Very well-put, Chris Reynolds. I think that in the end we will see that natural variability has played a bigger part in the melting than we thought, which is a good thing, I think. It means our ability to wreck the planet perhaps is not as great as feared. This would be fantastic news, but personally I won't even consider removing that little metal foil off the champagne bottle, let alone uncorking it, until extent, multi-year ice fraction and volume have returned to pre-2005 levels. Or start moving that way, which, despite last year, isn't the case. Volume-wise everything was back to zero (ie no increase) at the start of the melting season. And even though volume currently is higher than the past 4 years, it seems that a lot of the thicker ice has already been moved to Beaufort (correct me on that, Chris R., if necessary), where it can function as a record minimum preventer, but is very vulnerable at the same time. And so it's all about risk management. Do we want to gamble that it's all natural cycles and human civilisation won't be wrecked by the potential consequences of Arctic sea ice loss, and AGW in general? I knew the answer after the 2007 melting season. 2012 should've answered that question for a lot of people. But sometimes loss just ain't enough.
Toggle Commented Jul 15, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
Ostepop, don't trigger my BS sensors too much by inserting denialist myths into the conversation. You should also be careful with making such definite statements about the Arctic. The Arctic has the tendency to... put them in perspective.
Toggle Commented Jul 14, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
Image
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has... Continue reading
Posted Jul 13, 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
72
That shouldn't be a direct reason of greater ice volume in June. If i understood well, melt ponds start a run-away of melting that accelerates during June but would not show the real impact until July - August. In June it is just an initial, small, volume of water that can cover a large area. But maybe I got the thing wrong. You may be right, seattlerocks. Then again, if this is true, what is the reason that volume has moved away from other post-2010 years?
Toggle Commented Jul 8, 2014 on PIOMAS July 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Post has been updated to include Wipneus' graph.
Toggle Commented Jul 8, 2014 on PIOMAS July 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Image
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Despite weather conditions that were conducive to melting in the past couple of weeks, the 2014 sea ice... Continue reading
Posted Jul 7, 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
77
You can find him on the Forum, in the extent and area thread.
Toggle Commented Jul 5, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks for the link, Bibken (and CR for fixing).
Toggle Commented Jul 4, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks, Rob. Very interesting, as usual.
Over on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum I have opened two new polls for July, which will run for 10 days: NSIDC 2014 Arctic SIE September minimum: July poll Cryosphere Today 2014 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll Looking forward to your votes!
Toggle Commented Jul 1, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
2014 seems to have opened its Hudson Bay piggy bank, causing IJIS SIE to drop big time. Today the second biggest daily drop in June for the 2005-2014 record: 173K. Biggest drop was 182K on June 8th 2012. 2014 is also second when it comes to century breaks for the melting season so far: 10. 2012 had 19 (!) century breaks so far, but I think Windsat filling in between AMSR-E and AMSR-2 had something to do with that.
Toggle Commented Jun 30, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Bill, do you get a security warning? That's because there's an issue with the security certificate, not with security itself. You can tell your browser to make an exception, or remove the 's' from 'https'.
Toggle Commented Jun 29, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks for the link, Chris. I wouldn't be surprised if at the end of the melting season we go: What if it hadn't started this late? Like every month I'm really curious what PIOMAS will report.
Toggle Commented Jun 29, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
I can't believe nobody commented yet. Well thanks for the analysis Neven :) Thanks, seattlerocks. I guess people are still reading. This is my wordiest ASI update ever. Sorry for that. 1) not much melt ponding, 2) ice pack being dispersed Maybe you meant "ice pack being compacted"? Let me see. Every time I write about CAPIE, I have to sit back and remember how it works. *thinks* Yes, you're right. Fixing as we speak. Thanks.
Toggle Commented Jun 29, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
Image
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has... Continue reading
Posted Jun 29, 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
79
I agree Rlkittiwake, but I said: "People (including myself) kept voting low, even in August". Last year I learned that extent records don't get broken when there are persistent cyclones during the start of the melting season.
Wayne, I fully agree with what you're saying, but at the same time one of my interests connected to Arctic sea ice is the perception of what is happening with the sea ice and the consequences thereof. For me fake skeptics represent that part of the collective consciousness that keeps it where it is, in denial of reality. There might come a point when Arctic sea ice loss keeps continuing, where they can't wriggle out any longer in a credible way (not that the ones profiting from it, won't try). That could be a sign that the collective consciousness is changing. It has nothing to do with the science of predicting the minimum whatsoever. So you're admitting there's excessive alarmism in the ASIF Well, there was last year. People (including myself) kept voting low, even in August, when it was becoming clear that all that potential, the huge dispersal and holes all over the ice pack, wouldn't come to fruition and get expressed in extent numbers. At the same time it's understandable that alarmedness about mid- to long-term trends in Arctic sea ice loss - given the extremely rapid loss so far - leads to alarmism regarding the short term trend. Paradoxically, people who are worried about Arctic sea ice loss, also hope it will come faster as a wake-up call (I wrote a piece about that back in 2010: To melt or not to melt). Combine that with how difficult it is to make sense of what is going on and remember enough of recent years as a reference, and you get those low votes. But again, absolutely no one expected last year's massive outlier. Not even the community over at WUWT. And in 2012 it was the other way around. Practically, no one, including me, was expecting that record smashing crash. Which also explains people bracing themselves for the worst one year later. The jury is still out on this year. It looked like a repeat of 2013, though less extreme, but now it doesn't. Who knows what it'll look like in 2 weeks. I still don't think the record will be broken, but it's the Arctic, so mustn't rule it out either (yet).
Image
The first Sea Ice Outlook of this year has been published. The SIO is now organized by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (as part of the Arctic research program 'Study of Environmental Arctic Change', or SEARCH), and is a compilation of projections for the September 2014 Arctic sea ice extent,... Continue reading
Posted Jun 24, 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
60
I hope Neven will do a post about the ARCUS June report, since there are many interesting projection methods presented there. Rob, I'll put up a post tonight.
Toggle Commented Jun 22, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 1: melt pond May at Arctic Sea Ice
Bill F asked me to post this for him, as he can't log in for the moment: Whilst I fully agree with the response from LRC stating that Antarctic sea ice is frequently used as a red herring, it doesn't actually answer the question that was asked. So here's an attempt to do so. Sea ice growth in the Antarctic, whilst indisputably expanding of late, has demonstrated seriously erratic (as opposed to erotic) behaviour for many years. If we look at the NSIDC area data, and let a value of 1 equate to the largest area recorded, then the annual average figures from 2000 onwards read... 9, 19, 33, 6, 7, 18, 24, 10, 2, 4, 5, 21, 3, 1 Not exactly monotonic growth, but the 5 highest have all been in the last 6 years! It is extremely likely that this month will see a record high for June; that will mean that in the 24 month period from July 2012 to June 2014, all bar 3 will be amongst the 5 highest recorded for the given month. All 12 months will have clocked up either a largest or second largest average during that period. I don't know if your question relates to (a) annual average area, or to (b) the month having the annual max - which will be in September. My guess for each would be (a) very probably, and (b) quite possibly. The reason I choose to hedge my bets on (b) is because last year comfortably had the largest annual average in the NSIDC dataset, but the September average was still only 4th. Whether it does will depend on the weather. Cheers BIll F I disagree with the 'erotic' thing. I think Antarctic sea ice is pretty sexy too. I wish I had more time to start an Antarctic Sea Ice Blog and get to the bottom of this. There are some very interesting theories that try to explain the increase, some of which are tied to AGW.
Definitely extremes going on at both poles.