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Neven
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Indeed, Lennart! Fixed now, thanks.
Toggle Commented yesterday on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
I am surprised you wouldnt call it a max yet? I would if it weren't for that combination of cold and northerlies in the Bering Sea region where there is so much open water that can still refreeze, albeit with a very thin layer. Besides, I try not to call the max anymore as a matter of principle. I'm not a fan of eating crow. ;-) But this max is potentially so mad, that I had to write something about it.
Toggle Commented yesterday on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
I forgot to add one more forecast. The Arctic Oscillation has been very high in the past two weeks, meaning that low pressure areas dominated the Arctic, and in winter that means more heat retention due to clouds, and more heat pulled in from lower latitudes (please correct me if I'm putting it the wrong way), etc. Here's the forecast: AO is going to drop very fast, which may be another sign of a late surge putting the mad max in second place. I have to say, this is the most exciting ending of a freezing season I have seen so far (it's my fifth). ;-)
Toggle Commented yesterday on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
The melt ponds are in the middle, the million km2 are on the fringes, where ice will melt out anyway. It melts out sooner, but if stronger ice is then encountered because there weren't many melt ponds, things slow down. So, no melt ponds = no record low minimum. But 1 million km2 head start, and then lots of melt ponds in May = hold on to your seats. I believe we've discussed the chronology of a perfect storm last year, describing what it would take - in chronological order - for a new record low minimum to occur. Or if the perfect conditions take place when volume is low enough (which possibly already is the case), an ice-free Arctic for all practical purposes may be the result. These perfect conditions don't occur very often, I don't think. 2007 was close. But as volume goes down, perfect conditions don't have to be as perfect. Maybe I should do a blog post on that some time.
Toggle Commented yesterday on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
Ladies and gentlemen, I would kindly like to ask you to continue this conversation in the latest blog post discussing this very event. :-)
Toggle Commented yesterday on Thinner and thinner at Arctic Sea Ice
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Okay, I'm not calling the max - short for maximum extent of the sea ice pack that marks the end of the freezing season - as I've sworn not to do that anymore since 2012, when I called the max twice, only to see the trend line bounce up higher... Continue reading
Posted 7 hours ago at Arctic Sea Ice
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Yesterday the University of Washington published this press release covering an interesting paper by Ron Lindsay and Axel Schweiger, called Arctic sea ice thickness loss determined using subsurface, aircraft, and satellite observations: On thin ice: Combined Arctic ice observations show decades of loss Hannah Hickey Locations of sea ice thickness... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Arctic Sea Ice
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Oops, I see you've already added it, Neven. And unlike mine, your y axis scaling was down to zero, which some people insist upon :) Ah, I should've remembered your graph, Sou. And save myself the trouble. And let your graphs run at least to 1 million km2, because below that is when we call the Arctic ice-free for all practical purposes. Ecojosh, the data file is here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/data/graph/plot_extent_n_v2.csv
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on Shock news! at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven, you are not being completely clear and honest, to show Arctic and Antarctic loss and gain on one graph and then show the Arctic loss is misleading. When to show the real situation all you have to do is show the global sea ice graph which is not too alarming. Kano, like I said in the other post dealing with this subject: it's like saying that one billion people starving globally is not a problem, because there are one billion obese persons The situation in the Arctic melting season is extreme, with regards to the amount as well as the speed of sea ice loss. One could increasingly say the same thing about the Antarctic freezing season, although it is not entirely clear how much the factors behind it are contributing (ozone loss, increased westerly winds, fresh water run-off from the land ice). I find it difficult to understand how two extremes - seemingly compensating each other if you apply the neat trick I explain in the aforementioned blog post - actually convince one there is absolutely nothing going on that could pose risks if continuing unabated. My brains, weak as they are, don't accept that kind of delusive thinking. I'd be more at ease if Antarctic sea ice remained relatively stable during winter, because that would reassure me that at least nothing is changing as rapidly on the other pole. I don't find extremes particularly comforting, especially as the scientific community doesn't know what might happen if we keep continuing emitting greenhouse gases on a business-as-usual basis.
Toggle Commented 6 days ago on Erase and rewind at Arctic Sea Ice
Well, if Arctic sea ice loss continues unabated, there's a risk indeed that all will be punished.
Toggle Commented Feb 26, 2015 on Shock news! at Arctic Sea Ice
If it weren't shocking, wouldn't paid disinformers have showed the full data, accompanied by the full explanations, instead of the neat trick they keep performing, fooling some of the people all of the time?
Toggle Commented Feb 26, 2015 on Shock news! at Arctic Sea Ice
Cincinattus, all cherries have now been added at the end of the post.
Toggle Commented Feb 25, 2015 on Shock news! at Arctic Sea Ice
Cherry picking a little bit, are we? A bit, but not intentionally, like you will see on a daily basis elsewhere. This was the best thing I could find, and I didn't have time to make a graph myself. I'll look for or make an updated version. Do you expect to see anything there that renders my argument moot?
Toggle Commented Feb 25, 2015 on Shock news! at Arctic Sea Ice
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There is no shocking news, really. I'm just emulating a way of news reporting as seen in recent months by folks trying to play down the long-term shocking news of Arctic sea ice loss. You know, paid climate science disinformers like Benny Peiser who claimed that the poles aren't melting,... Continue reading
Posted Feb 21, 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Thanks, Jim. I'm looking forward to the coming melting season. BTW, A new arch will probably form, And going by what the eyes on the ASIF are saying, it seems that it has formed in Kane Basin and now also at Nares' North entrance (or exit, depending on which way the wind blows). It will be interesting to see when the arch breaks up come summer.
Toggle Commented Feb 19, 2015 on Erase and rewind at Arctic Sea Ice
Those radar images are awesome - especially those from Sentinel - but it's a shame that the MODIS black hole is still covering the Nares region. It'd be really cool to see the retreat in true color.
Toggle Commented Feb 11, 2015 on Erase and rewind at Arctic Sea Ice
You don't like the colour red, do you? :-P Uncertainty is not our friend, so if you don't mind, we'll keep comparing the numbers, however precise or imprecise they are.
Toggle Commented Feb 10, 2015 on PIOMAS February 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
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I don't know what the most interesting forum thread on the planet was last week, but this week it's definitely the Nares Strait thread, over on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum. All who regularly follow Arctic events, know that one of the coolest places in it is Nares Strait, the... Continue reading
Posted Feb 10, 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Last month I tentatively argued that due to increased transport through Fram Strait, relatively high temperatures (still freezing,... Continue reading
Posted Feb 7, 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
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PIOMAS has indeed been updated. I'll have a post up later today.
Toggle Commented Feb 6, 2015 on PIOMAS January 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks, Kevin. This month's analysis at the NSIDC was indeed very interesting. I'm also very curious what the next PIOMAS update will bring, as we are now approaching the winter maximum. I will post a new update as soon as the data is released. BTW, my wife, daughter and I have finally moved into our new home, after a couple of intense final weeks. Of course, it's not completely done (probably never will be), but we have everything we need and, thank God, no longer have to move around all the time, from the rental apartment to our house. Now it's about finishing the details and improving/tweaking things. It's already looking like it's going to be a very energy efficient home, as we're heating the place with just 1000 Watts of heating capacity, with freezing temps outside. I'll be writing about that a bit at the Forum in the coming week (here's a link to a comment I posted just before Christmas).
Toggle Commented Feb 5, 2015 on PIOMAS January 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks, ljgeoff. Unfortunately I haven't been able to blog as much as I wanted to or should have in the past two years, but we have finally reached the final stage of building our house (my wife and I are doing everything ourselves), so I'm hoping to have more time in the near future again.
Toggle Commented Jan 12, 2015 on PIOMAS January 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
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A new year, a new volume. Here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Relatively warm temperatures in the Arctic in the past couple of weeks, and an increase in Fram Strait... Continue reading
Posted Jan 11, 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Yes, this is the ASIB, let's try and keep it about Arctic sea ice. PIOMAS has updated. It seems the gap has become slightly smaller, or so it looks to me after a first glance at the data. I'll have a post up tonight.
Toggle Commented Jan 9, 2015 on Fram Strait 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Wipneus, creator of many graph and animations, has posted another gem over on the Forum. The animation he uploaded to Youtube becomes really interesting after the end of May, when the transport through Fram Strait (one of the reasons that made the 2007 melting season so spectacular) almost completely stalls... Continue reading
Posted Dec 27, 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
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