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Neven
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Thanks for your concern, ClimategateNL, but I don't see what my dad has to do with this. ;-) It is so dad that you took this one dimensional natural parameter as spreadhead for your societal concerns rather then directly address human issues like stupipdity and aggression. You can mock me if you like, but I'm entirely transparent about my motives, unlike the people you probably go to for your (dis)information. Now you picked the wrong indicator and you will be forces to drink the cup till the last bitter sip. You are now set up to be the documenter of the final nail in the coffin of the global warming religion! Que sera, sera, and I will document things as objectively as I can. But the same thing was said in 2010, which was followed by record tying 2011 and record smashing 2012. So I wouldn't be too triumphant just yet. The Arctic isn't very cooperative that way. As far as PR goes: this second rebound year will obviously be used to spread confusion with regards to the severity of the situation up North, where the consequences of the dramatic sea ice (and snow cover) loss are felt acutely on a regional level, through coastal erosion, melting permafrost and an increase in forest fires. These consequences will reverberate across the Northern Hemisphere (and globe), if they don't already do. But it will probably take a while for the influence on the jet stream, carbon cycle and sea level rise to become statistically significant. In this sense, an ice-free Arctic would be a much quicker and more difficult to deny piece of evidence that yes, human activities are changing the planet we all live on, and no, these changes will probably not have benign effects on human societies (that are already bumping into various limits to growth, like recessions, resource wars and massive public health issues). But it's definitely better for everyone and everything if the sea ice becomes healthy again, and these rebound years are followed by harsh winters and more cold and/or windless summers, so that the sea ice becomes as thick as it was 30 years ago, and the 75% loss in sea ice volume is reversed. So yeah, I'm all for nails in the coffin of global warming religion (and the coffin of free market fundamentalism). Even better would be if the global warming theory turned to be completely false. And for Liechtenstein to win the FIFA World Cup.
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The last Sea Ice Outlook of this year has been published. The SIO is now organized by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (as part of the Arctic research program 'Study of Environmental Arctic Change', or SEARCH), and is a compilation of projections for the September 2014 Arctic sea ice extent,... Continue reading
Posted 5 days ago at Arctic Sea Ice
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btw under SIA I think you mean "...that massive melt pond refreeze on the Atlantic side of the Arctic..." No, I did mean Pacific, East Siberian Sea to be specific. There was a huge amount of yellow and green two weeks ago, signalling low concentration (I think melt ponds because of insolation and warm winds). This then turned purple and pink again, ie higher concentration. I think it's one of the main reasons CT SIA stalled despite all of the action. Neven - to what extent does the pronounced cold patch east of Spitzbergen in the SST Anomalies plot reflect a lack of penetration by the Gulf Stream ? Very good question, Lewis. I'm wondering the same. I don't know to what extent sea surface temperatures say something about what happens lower down. But the relative cold, SST as well as SAT, in the Barentsz and Kara Seas have also been a defining characteristic for this melting season. Quite a change from previous years.
Toggle Commented Aug 24, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 8: neck and neck at Arctic Sea Ice
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During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has... Continue reading
Posted Aug 24, 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Hi Neil, Did you wonder if the fissured and fractured nature of the early pack is now draining the melt ponds before they are able to get going? The pack seems to have significant areas which are no longer contiguous ice but have hundreds of meters of open water between them. Could be, but there haven't been that many melt ponds this year anyhow. Could this be changing the weather over large areas of the pack? I wish I knew the answer to this question! Certainly you can't see 2014 as any kind of recovery. I see it as a rebound, the second one in a row (just like following the 2007 record). We'll have to wait and see what remains of it at the start of the 2015 melting season. And, of course, a rebound compared to pre-2007 is not really a rebound. A recovery would mean several years like this in a row, preferably happening even when weather conditions are conducive to melting. More volume, more and thicker multi-year ice, no passages opening up, etc. The most interesting thinking in this area (or adjacent to it), has been Chris Reynolds' new Slow Transition theory. But that's more about a plateau that a recovery. The ice is in worse state than ever, not by statistics, but actually by looking at how it fits together. I don't know, Neil, you really have to be an avid ice watcher (like Werther for instance) to be able to make a pronouncement on the general state of the sea ice compared to previous years. You know, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 were pretty hefty in their own way too. Also I note that there is now significant clear water north of the islands making up the Vilkitskiy Strait, making the Northern Sea Route open if you want to go round that way. The strait itself appears to be opening slowly, but the route itself is now open. Indeed, you're right. I hadn't looked that closely. Still, I think most shipping companies preferring taking the Vilkitskiy Strait route as soon as it clears. The northern route is perhaps too close to the ice pack. I might be wrong though.
Toggle Commented Aug 10, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
PS I have posted the August polls for NSIDC SIE and CT SIA minimums on the ASIF. Commenter slow wing has posted an August PIOMAS SIV minimum poll. Please, take a few seconds/minutes to vote, as I'm interested in seeing how collective voting changes over time.
Toggle Commented Aug 10, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
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During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has... Continue reading
Posted Aug 10, 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Somewhat belated, but not too late I have posted the August polls for NSIDC SIE and CT SIA minimums on the ASIF. Commenter slow wing has posted an August PIOMAS SIV minimum poll.
Toggle Commented Aug 8, 2014 on PIOMAS August 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
"Until we wake-up , them we crush them like a grape." CB, if you're going to crush anyone, better crush the people who are very happy to see this Us vs Them mentality. They are not interested in America or Russia, or whatever country they may come from. They are only interested in power and profit, and they use us to further their goals.
Toggle Commented Aug 8, 2014 on PIOMAS August 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: After a month of weather that was mostly good for ice retention (see last ASI update), volume decrease... Continue reading
Posted Aug 6, 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
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It was a bit short, Ostepop. And not very friendly. And the Arctic shows time and again that none of us know and understand enough about to say something conclusive. Which means that some of our viewpoints will always turn out to be unreasonable and/or unsupportable. And this, of course, should also have implications for risk management. Especially given the trends so far. What, according to you, would the melting season look like that gets SIA below 1 million km2? How would large parts be there for weeks and months on end, when viewed from above, and then suddenly go poof towards the end of the melting season? I'm not asking when, I'm asking what that particular season would look like. But I'll do a separate blog post on that subject some time.
Toggle Commented Aug 4, 2014 on Poof, it's gone at Arctic Sea Ice
I appreciate the presence of adherents of other cults, as long as they stay polite.
Thanks for that, CB. Will re-post that video tomorrow.
Toggle Commented Aug 4, 2014 on Poof, it's gone at Arctic Sea Ice
What would the chronological prerequisites be for large parts of the Arctic to go poof towards the end of the melting season? Perhaps something like this: 1) Previous melting season ending low 2) Mild winter, lots of transport 3) Very sunny start to the melting season from May to mid-June, lots of melt ponds and deformed snow 4) A couple of strong cyclones dispersing the ice pack from mid-June to end of July, causing holes in the ice pack 5) Lots of insolation and heat from mid-latitudes during August, with large parts of the ice pack breaking off (like we saw in 2012) 6) Then, as a bonus, perhaps a big GAC-2012 type cyclone at the end of August Would that be the perfect melting season for getting the Arctic close to ice-free? I find Chris Reynolds' writing with regards to the Slow Transition very convincing, but at the same time (still) think that one freak year could get the Arctic very close to ice-free. Remember, CT SIA was down to 2.2 million km2 in 2012. That's just 1.2 million km2 shy of the ice-free definition. So one question is whether we will see that slow transition now that most of the multi-year ice is gone. The other question is when a freak year occurs. Is it a 1-in-20-years event? 1-in-50? 1-in-100? It's impossible to know. And even if we did know it, we wouldn't know if the effects of Arctic sea ice loss are distorting these statistics. Either way, I posted this because I liked the idea that there are things we don't see when looking from above (something I tend to forget). I might try and post something on Chris Reynolds' Slow Transition idea, but I'd have to re-read everything everyone wrote about it on Dosbat and the ASIF, and my brain is still somewhat occupied with wood, screws, electric cables and water pipes. ;-)
Toggle Commented Aug 4, 2014 on Poof, it's gone at Arctic Sea Ice
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One of the reasons for setting up the Arctic Sea Ice Forum, was to increase interaction and make more space for visual gems that do not fit the narrow comment section of this blog (check out for instance the Jakobshavn glacier thread). One of those gems was posted yesterday by... Continue reading
Posted Aug 4, 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Thanks, Clare. I hope to do more next year, once our house is finished. Of course, it will never be finished. I mean, once we live in it. :-) I rarely hear your opinion on the NAO That's true. I used to watch the AO index a lot, but I rarely do now (just watch SLP forecasts instead). Maybe I should, but first I have to improve my understanding of both AO and NAO (they are somewhat linked, of course). Anyway, commenter Friv on the ASIF mentioned the NAO a lot this year, saying what you say too.
Toggle Commented Jul 29, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 6: slow times at Arctic Sea Ice
As reported earlier: I accidentally deleted the PIOMAS 2014 July blog post yesterday. I managed to retrieve it (with the help of TypePad support), restore it and copy the comments below the blog post. Post is now here.
Toggle Commented Jul 27, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 6: slow times at Arctic Sea Ice
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Edit July 27th: Yesterday I accidentally deleted this blog post. I managed to retrieve it using Google cache (here). I will try and see if I can retrieve the comments. Apologies for the inconvenience. Edit2: I have copied the comments and pasted them at the end of the blog post.... Continue reading
Posted Jul 27, 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
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During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has... Continue reading
Posted Jul 27, 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Everyone, I just accidentally deleted the latest PIOMAS update. Will try to restore it (hopefully, need TypePad's help). Sorry for the inconvenience.
As Sea Ice Area is much more accurate than Sea Ice Extent, why is SIE even used? Hi, RenewCP. SIA is actually considered less accurate, because satellite sensors can be fooled into thinking that melt ponds are open water, for instance. Or clouds, etc. They are both useful in their own way, and a lot also depends on what satellite sensor, resolution, algorithm, etc is used.
Toggle Commented Jul 25, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
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The second Sea Ice Outlook of this year has been published. The SIO is now organized by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (as part of the Arctic research program 'Study of Environmental Arctic Change', or SEARCH), and is a compilation of projections for the September 2014 Arctic sea ice extent,... Continue reading
Posted Jul 24, 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Visually quite appealing, but doesn't seem to work all that well on my PC. I don't know if it's a hardware or Internet connection issue. Either way, I regularly watch the CCI ClimateReanalyzer site now.
Toggle Commented Jul 21, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
Link fixed. Thanks for the links.
Toggle Commented Jul 16, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
The Barentz Sea has been ice-free for much of this season and had one of the lowest maximum extents. Yet as you're SST graphs show the ocean surface temps are far, far lower this year than in recent years. Given that in the past an explanation for the hot temperatures was sun beating down on ice free ocean then what would be an explanation for these lower temperatures? Good question, Pete. It has to do with how much heat is brought North through ocean flux. From this blog post I wrote two years ago: We start with the Barents Sea, which of course is of interest because of the cutting-edge research with regards to the influence of warm waters in that region on weather patterns during winter (see WACC overview). The Norwegian Atlantic Current (NwAC), a branch of the North Atlantic Current (itself a continuation of the warm Gulf Stream), splits up into a western and eastern part. The western branch rejoins the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC) further up north, whereas the eastern branch, known as the Norwegian Atlantic Slope Current (NwASC), follows the Norwegian coast, and transitions into the North Cape Current as it passes the Barents Sea Opening (BSO), a 400 km wide passage between Bear Island (Bjørnøya) and the North Cape (see this map from Arctic.io). This is the main source of Atlantic Water (AW) to the Barents Sea, 1.8 to 2 Sv with large interannual variations. It is accompanied by the Norwegian Coastal Current (NCC) which brings in aprroximately 2.6 Sv of water from the Baltic Sea, the North Sea and Norwegian fjords and rivers, that is colder and less salty than AW, but warmer than the Arctic waters. After passing through the BSO a fraction of the inflow from the NwASC recirculates along a short pathway and exits through the BSO again. This is a lot of info, but the images below give an idea of how it works (found here and here). OHF-3This warm Atlantic Water keeps large parts of the Barents Sea from freezing over during winter. This also means that almost all the heat, 67 of 73 TW delivered (Smedsrud et al. 2010), is lost to the atmosphere, and most of the AW leaving the Barents Sea into the Arctic Ocean via St. Anna Trough, east of Franz Josef Land, is already cooled to temperatures below 0°C. In 2010 a positive trend was reported in the temperature of the relatively stable NwASC volume flux, corresponding to a linear increase of 0.5°C in 1992–2009, whereas in the Barents Sea Opening, a temperature increase of 1°C over the period 1997–2006 (to values above 6°C) was reported. A modeling data assimilation study provided estimates of BSO inflow of 3.2 Sv, recirculation in the northern BSO of 1.5 Sv, and the outflows between Novaya Zemlya and Franz Jozef Land and through the Kara Strait of 1.1 and 0.7 Sv, respectively, similar to available observations. Now I don't know why less heat is transported northwards, could be because of some atmospheric pattern. It's also possible that heat is transported, but doesn't show up on the sea surface because of some atmospheric pattern.
Toggle Commented Jul 15, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice