This is Neven's Typepad Profile.
Join Typepad and start following Neven's activity
Join Now!
Already a member? Sign In
Recent Activity
Not an update of current conditions in the Beaufort Sea, but some science for your reading pleasure. This is a guest blog by Alek Petty, a postdoc at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center and the University of Maryland, specializing in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice variability. Alek has just published... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Arctic Sea Ice
Also wonder, once the cost is opened, will it make it easier for the central mass of thicker ice to rotate and fracture? Taras, every year the entire ice pack completely fractures. Not even at the height of winter is it a homogeneous monolith or huge slab of ice. It's always moving and breaking, consisting of thousands of individual floes. In that sense the coast doesn't prevent floes to move in a certain direction (well, except for straight onto the land, of course). It's difficult to determine when the ice pack fractures completely, leads don't freeze over and the Arctic Ocean looks like an icy soup from above. And that makes if difficult to compare to previous years. But though it looks spectacular, it is 'normal'. Not to say that this year is 'normal', of course. So far it has been anything but.
Toggle Commented yesterday on Beaufort final update at Arctic Sea Ice
This isn't a final update as such, because I will certainly be mentioning events in the Beaufort Sea in upcoming ASI updates. But it is the last in a series of blog posts I have written (one, two and three) about this unprecedented event that started over 6 weeks ago... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Arctic Sea Ice
Bob, I haven't taken offense, I haven't judged, and I agree with you about AMEG (although I'm not reassured that methane from permafrost and clathrates poses no risk whatsoever). But you have to understand there is also a difference between criticizing the overdoing and criticizing the being concerned. Again, I will re-read and judge (for myself), which will help shape future decisions, if necessary. As for now, I'm preparing a last post on Beaufort events and will then start writing the first ASI update for this melting season.
Don't feed it then. ;-) My opinion is that it isn't doomerism to say that Arctic sea ice loss - even if it doesn't continue at this unprecedented and unforeseen pace - may have very serious consequences, that in some ways could be interpreted as world-ending. I think that's realistic risk assessment. I also think that people are justified to be worried about this. It's not fair to belittle this as 'doomerism'. I will re-read the discussion to see if bobcobb is setting up strawmen, as I read very quickly these past two days to catch up, here and on the ASIF.
Gentlemen, let's not go there. We're all concerned about AGW and Arctic sea ice loss, one way or another.
I'm back, everyone. I'll need a day or two to dig through all the comments and info (although I did manage to stay up-to-date in the Internet café) and then the regular programme will be resumed.
I'm back, everyone. I'll need a day or two to dig through all the comments and info (although I did manage to stay up-to-date in the Internet café) and then the regular programme will be resumed.
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on PIOMAS May 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Nice to see a good discussion here as well, as the Forum seems to have snatched them all. Okay, now I remember why I set up the Forum. ;-) As I'm in an Internet café again, I can't comment too much, but just two things: 1) I'm willing to cut RobertScribbler some slack, because he mostly gets things right/referenced and he writes well. Different people play different roles, but on the whole I believe that scientists are being way too reticent, and this could damage society. It's possible to discuss extreme consequences without being alarmist. Staying silent is not a caveat. 2) I believe Maslowski's prediction was wrt volume going below 10% of the long-term average, can't remember the details. It wasn't a prediction of extent/area going below 1 million km2. I'm still kicking myself for not having a chat with him at EGU2016. On-topic: It's difficult to get some rest here with so much going on up North! Temps are insane!
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: According to my contact at the PSC the model seems to be mostly ignoring the bad NSIDC ice... Continue reading
Posted May 10, 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Unfortunately no Internet connection where I am right now (had to look for an Internet café). Nice to see a good discussion here as well, as the Forum seems to have snatched them all. As to extreme predictions, I often feel that I am too careful, always adding caveats etc. RobertScribbler is willing to go closer to the edge, sometimes slightly over it even, but he can pull it off because he is a good writer. And his writings are almost always rooted in the possible, based on the science. The same goes for Forum members who comment regularly, like AbruptSLR and jai mitchell. They always refer to the science, and rarely just make s**t up. The only folks I see doing that on a regular basis are those from the Arctic Methane Emergency Group. But anyway, like I said to Susan earlier, this melting season has been 'perfect' so far for going very low. This is what the first ice-free summer of the future could look like. A lot now depends on how much melting momentum is built up during May and June. I'll be back next week, and you can bet I'll be looking a lot for that. With the usual caveats, of course (cyclones). ;-)
I'm going to be off for a week, but will probably/hopefully be able to connect to the Internet (and post the PIOMAS update).
Sorry, Rob, don't know! I'm going to be off for a week, but will probably/hopefully be able to connect to the Internet (and post the PIOMAS update).
Toggle Commented May 8, 2016 on EGU2016, my impressions at Arctic Sea Ice
I forgot to mention this excellent blog post by Chris Reynolds on Dosbat, with lots of additional information: Beaufort starts early
This is shocking, but I don't like to hear assertions that the Arctic will melt completely this summer. Which is why you won't hear me say it, Susan. ;-) I agree that there is no reason for proclaiming the Arctic will go ice-free this summer (below 1 million km2 extent/area). Initial sea ice conditions aren't that much different from previous low years like 2011, 2012 and 2013, although it looks like PIOMAS could go lowest on record once the next update is out (any day now). At the same time, I dare say that if you're wondering how the start to that first fluke of ice-free conditions in September would shape up, well, this is how it would look. Extremely warm/not-cold winter, relatively thin ice on the Pacific side of the Arctic, massive ice movement during the transition period when open water no longer freezes up to a meaningful thickness, continued high temps, high export through Fram Strait, extremely rapid loss of snow cover (there's a correlation there as Rob Dekker has shown through the years, something which Dr. Andrew Slater from the NSIDC is also working on). If this is followed by lots of melt ponds during May and June, and melting momentum gets built up, it will take a helluva lot of cyclonic activity to keep this year from breaking all records. But not a GAC, of course. Not that much cyclonic activity. Just persistent cloudiness and cold temps. Again, I don't think the Arctic will go ice-free this year, it's impossible to tell now anyway, but this is how that first ice-free year would start (if volume were significantly lower to start with).
When I wrote the Beaufort under early pressure blog post last month, I didn't quite expect this unprecedented pressure (timing and magnitude) to keep up for so long. High pressure areas tend to be short-lived in the Arctic, but this one was still going strong when the Beaufort quick update... Continue reading
Posted May 5, 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
At some point the entire ice pack starts cracking, and you get this mush of ice floes of variable sizes. That's spectacular, but normal, I'd say. I don't know if this year is (much) earlier than the last couple of years. It's hard to determine something like that. May has started, so what we look out for now, is melt ponds. A signal of this happening, is when the colour on the LANCE-MODIS Arctic Mosaic switches from white to a bluish hue.
Definitely, Yvan. The last word about this hasn't been said yet. By the way, tomorrow a great workshop starts with a huge amount of interesting presentations: Polar Prediction Workshop. The presentations are going to be streamed and the stream will be available here. Things start tomorrow at 9:00am EDT, which is 15:00 o'clock CET, I believe. I hope to catch some of those presentations. Nice follow-up to the stuff I saw at EGU.
Toggle Commented May 3, 2016 on EGU2016, my impressions at Arctic Sea Ice
Just like last year, I had the opportunity and time to visit the European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2016. There were several sessions on subjects related to the cryosphere and remote sensing, but most of the interesting Arctic sea ice-related stuff was happening on Thursday. So, that's when I went... Continue reading
Posted May 2, 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks, navegante. I'll be doing another update after the weekend.
Toggle Commented Apr 30, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
It looks like it wasn't counted for some reason or other in previous years. As Hudson Bay completely melts out every year, ice can't get much thicker than 2 metres there (unless there's lots of ridging due to wind).
Last month I made a comparison of CryoSat-2 sea ice volume distribution maps for the 2015/2016 Winter analysis, but it was off because the dates didn't exactly match. Better images have emerged during this year's General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (more on that later this week): These images... Continue reading
Posted Apr 24, 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
At the EGU press conference I was at today, there was also a scientist who explained how Arctic sea ice loss would lead to increased wavy activity and thus more coastal erosion in the second half of this century. I hesitated for a while during the Q&A, but finally said: Maybe I shouldn't ask this, but what will increased wave activity do to the East Siberian Arctic Shelf and the methane clathrates therein. I almost felt ashamed asking about it! ;) :D
Toggle Commented Apr 21, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
and now my original comment has disappeared. Thanks for letting me know. I've released your comment from the spam bucket. And other comments as well. Not many comments end up in the spam bucket nowadays, but some occasionally do. I don't get notified of this, and it's a bit of a drag for me to check. So, please let me know (through mail or here) that a comment is stuck, and I'll release it. the link is to an article about a prediction by the Alfred Wegener Institute saying that it is likely that we will have a new record low this year having studied the current state of the ice. wanted to draw your attention to this Neven feel free to delete as it is off topic for the thread. I was at that very same press conference today! I was astounded, as usually these press conferences are about what happened last year, but this was actually about the past winter and how things aren't looking good at the moment (at the same time not implying that a new record low minimum is a done deal). I'll have more on this too in days to come. Lots of interesting info at EGU this year.
Toggle Commented Apr 21, 2016 on Meanwhile, on the other side at Arctic Sea Ice
Lately the focus has been on the Beaufort Sea where a high-pressure area has caused the ice pack to crack on a massive scale, even earlier than in previous years, with ice being transported away from the North American coast (see here). But such a large and persistent high-pressure system... Continue reading
Posted Apr 20, 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice