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Neven
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It's the same forecast, but it has changed again. I tend to check out the ECMWF forecast on Tropical Tidbits, because it shows highest and lowest pressure of systems. There's not much use looking beyond D6, because the forecast becomes very volatile from one day to the next (as we see today, for example). But here's what I wrote over on the ASIF, posting D1-D6: The ECMWF SLP forecast is looking a bit worse again now, with high pressure remaining relatively high and quite extensive. D7-10 has the high pressure moving over to the Siberian side of the Arctic, but forecasts that far out tend to be volatile, and so there's no use in posting them.
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on PIOMAS May 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
The ECMWF forecast is actually looking somewhat better (for the ice) than it did a few days ago. The high pressure isn't as high, going below 1030 hPa again in a few days, and instead of covering almost the entire Arctic, it gets restricted to the Beaufort Sea. But it hasn't been good so far. And according to GFS temps will remain anomalously high. June is going to be very important.
Toggle Commented 6 days ago on PIOMAS May 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Regarding the anti-cyclonic weather pattern: Remember that in 2016 anti-cyclonic pattern persisted until the end of May Yes, and this probably helped 2016 come in second lowest after all (in combination with some big cyclones in August, here's the 2016 overview). I'd say the high pressure is more widespread and higher later into the month than it was in 2016, but it's close. And we still have some ways to go until the month is out. The 10-day forecast isn't looking all that great, though, even if it has improved somewhat. But you're right that June may be even more important.
Toggle Commented May 11, 2018 on PIOMAS May 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Personally, I think it's the worst May I have seen so far (but I would have to check my writing in May 2012). Of course, this can flip within days. But things couldn't be much worse for the ice than they are right now. If we see this kind of prolonged weather conditions in June, let alone July, there's no telling what might happen to the ice pack.
Toggle Commented May 11, 2018 on PIOMAS May 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: The maximum for sea ice volume was reached during April. According to the PIOMAS model, it peaked on... Continue reading
Posted May 6, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Gentlemen, if you're going to take this route, I'd kindly invite you to come to the ASIF. That's a better place for bickering.
Toggle Commented Apr 18, 2018 on PIOMAS April 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: March 2018 turned out to be quite cold, relatively speaking (more on that below). And thus, as expected,... Continue reading
Posted Apr 5, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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I actually haven't started on a new PIOMAS update yet, Jim, so thanks. As expected sea ice volume has gone back a bit towards the pack. I'll wait for the official data.
Toggle Commented Apr 3, 2018 on Bering goes extreme at Arctic Sea Ice
The ASIF is back up again. Thanks to Fred the Easter Bunny. :-)
Toggle Commented Apr 1, 2018 on Bering goes extreme at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks, Rob. I'll see if I can get it up again.
Toggle Commented Apr 1, 2018 on Bering goes extreme at Arctic Sea Ice
That is awesome. Don Perovich is awesome. :-)
Toggle Commented Mar 31, 2018 on Bering goes extreme at Arctic Sea Ice
Over on the ASIF commenter Romett1 posted this table showing Bering sea icea area numbers according to NSIDC:
Toggle Commented Mar 27, 2018 on Bering goes extreme at Arctic Sea Ice
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The melting season hasn't started in earnest yet, but it seems the Bering Sea hasn't received the memo. For almost the entire winter, sea ice has been reluctant to form there, and now that the Sun has returned, the ice edge has started to retreat to record high latitudes, past... Continue reading
Posted Mar 27, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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I've also added a bar graph to the blog post, showing total freeze for the 2006-2018 period.
Speaking of ASIF, I forgot to mention that the 2018 melting season thread has also opened there.
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For a while it looked like the record for lowest maximum was going to be broken for the third year in a row, especially after an extreme warm event shook the Arctic. But this anomalous heat was followed by anomalous cold, which was just enough to nudge JAXA sea ice... Continue reading
Posted Mar 23, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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The part about the max crow is funny, because the max is notoriously deceptive and hard to call. You could've left out the rest. Eric Holthaus is a great climate journalist.
Toggle Commented Mar 13, 2018 on PIOMAS March 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks for that paper, Rob. I didn't know about snow-ice formation, although I have often wondered about what goes on where the snow touches the ice.
Toggle Commented Mar 12, 2018 on PIOMAS March 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks for the info, John Wayne. :-)
Toggle Commented Mar 8, 2018 on Talk about unprecedented at Arctic Sea Ice
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Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: During February Arctic sea ice volume increased by 2075 km3, according to the PIOMAS model, which is well... Continue reading
Posted Mar 6, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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That's, as always, the million-dollar question, AmbiValent. I'll post the PIOMAS update later today. A couple of interesting things are going on, not least of all, the question whether the max has been reached or not.
Toggle Commented Mar 6, 2018 on Talk about unprecedented at Arctic Sea Ice
You may say is close to the maximum?? I read it is a bit risky.. At any rate it is starting very bad for sea ice... We're having fun discussing that on the ASIF. The maximum is always fun, because it's so hard to predict. I'm curious what PIOMAS will say about February.
Toggle Commented Mar 5, 2018 on Talk about unprecedented at Arctic Sea Ice
Robert has another good piece on this event: A Large Area of Open Water Forms in the Melting Sea Ice North of Greenland During February Good article on Mashable as well, by Andrew Freedman: Drastic Arctic warm event stuns scientists, as record-breaking temperatures reach the North Pole
Toggle Commented Feb 27, 2018 on Talk about unprecedented at Arctic Sea Ice
However, areas you seem to have labelled as “melting” in Northern Greenland are in fact subject to sublimation. DMI and other authoritative sources on the recent Kap Morris Jesup observations have clearly labelled this as a “Föhn effect”. Thanks, P-maker. These things are often discussed on the ASIF, but I'm too dumb to follow them, so don't bother to read. Sublimation is in a way similar to melting, but instead of turning to water, the ice is directly turned into water vapour, right? So, some of the ice at the surface of Northern Greenland did disappear due to the warm winds, which had to do with the described weather event, which is highly likely unprecedented for this time of year. I'll update the text.
Toggle Commented Feb 27, 2018 on Talk about unprecedented at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks, Sourabh. If you want more positive notes: - That high pressure system really is very high, which means that there are open skies over the Siberian side of the Arctic, which means ice gets to thicken better than it would under overcast skies. - Those winds pushing ice back into the Arctic instead of south through Fram Strait will cause ridging, with open water refreezing, so more volume. - On that image of Greenland (left, 24th), you also see a lot of blue in the southeast, which means lots of precipitation. Sheet Mass Balance also shows an uptick. But on the whole, it's not looking so great. And there seem to be a lot of unprecedented things going on. What that portends for the melting season, we don't know. Nevertheless, like I said in the preceding post: As things stand right now, it looks like the Arctic will have to try and dodge another bullet/cannonball in the upcoming melting season. Because if it doesn't, it'll head our way.
Toggle Commented Feb 26, 2018 on Talk about unprecedented at Arctic Sea Ice