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Neven
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Two days have passed since the previous update, and in those two days the storm re-intensified, bottomed out at 971 hPa (slightly higher than the first lowest central pressure of 968 hPa), as can be seen on the image on the left, provided by Environment Canada. It quickly weakened after... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Arctic Sea Ice
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I'll be doing a piece on the Walsh et al. paper around this year's minimum.
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The third and last Sea Ice Outlook of this year has been published. The SIO is organized by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (as part of the Arctic research program 'Study of Environmental Arctic Change', or SEARCH), and is a compilation of projections for the September 2016 Arctic sea ice... Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Arctic Sea Ice
I've been alarmed since 2007, navegante. ;-) The forecast is very fickle the further out you go. I don't know what to make of it. As far as the numbers go, my focus is still on whether this melting season can end up in the top 3. I'm not expecting it will come very close to the 2012 record, but you never know.
Toggle Commented 4 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
How much store should I set in this product? I understand the advice that it should not be used for long-term analysis, but is it also not very useful for the short-term? In the short term it's probably the most accurate product, because human operational analysts look at a large set of data sources to determine where the ice edge is. Automated satellite sensor data can be (temporarily) thrown off by things like clouds and flash melting. As for long term consistency: I looked at the data this past spring and there clearly is a break somewhere in 2010-2011, meaning that years prior to that are too low compared to the years after that. I was in contact with people at NIC and NSIDC and they told me that it's difficult to find the exact reason, but they expect it might have to do with the introduction of ASCAT around that time (which helped to see more ice, so to speak).
Toggle Commented 4 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
According to Environment Canada the storm is currently at 971 hPa. Impressive! I'm going to try to do another update tonight or tomorrow. The August SIO is also out.
Toggle Commented 4 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
And Robertscribbler has another post on the situation: Warm Arctic Storm Tearing Sea Ice to Shreds amidst Big 2016 Heat Spike
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Indeed, Lodger. Some real-time data from drones or buoys would be greatly appreciated, not just by us. JAXA reported another solid drop of 85K. If today more than 55K of ice melts/vanishes, 2016 will be in second position. Over on the Forum I posted the latest CAJAX compactness graph, which shows this year is currently lowest in the 2007-2016 record. This means the pack is highly dispersed, lots of ice surrounded by open water, and high compaction potential.
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
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So, the storm has been raging for a while now. The latest Environment Canada weather map shows it's at 984 hPa. According to this tweet by PhD climatologist Brian Brettschneider a IABP buoy from the University of Washington measured a lowest central pressure of 966.5 hPa, which is somewhat lower... Continue reading
Posted 6 days ago at Arctic Sea Ice
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There was a lot of wind at the start of the melting season, causing lots of open water to show up in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, and 2016 quickly built up a lead of around 1 million km2. It's only after that, during the crucial months of June and July, that weather was poor for melting. If it weren't for exceptional weather conditions during April and May, the 2016 trend line would be in the middle of the herd. This information can't be conveyed by an annual average graph.
Toggle Commented 6 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
It is indeed amazing. Imagine what would have happened if there would have been 2-3 weeks of sunny weather during June and July.
Toggle Commented 6 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
When do you think the Arctic might go below 1 million km2 of area/extent, William? And what did you think 10 years ago?
Toggle Commented 6 days ago on PIOMAS August 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
JAXA has reported a century break for the 16th: -109K. There's a blog post on Jeff Masters' Wunderblog by Bob Henson that is well worth reading: The Great Arctic Cyclone of 2016: After Four Years, a Summer Sequel
Toggle Commented 7 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
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As announced in ASI 2016 update 5 a very large cyclone is raging in the Arctic, as we speak. According to Environment Canada the storm's current central pressure is 970 hPa, but it was 968 hPa 12 hours ago, which is probably the lowest it will go. I've combined the... Continue reading
Posted Aug 16, 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
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There it is, storm is now at 969 hPa (and projected to go even a bit lower tomorrow): The forecasts are interesting too, with the storm re-intensifying next week. But it's too far out to be reliable. I'll have an update tomorrow.
Toggle Commented Aug 15, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 5: big cyclone at Arctic Sea Ice
I like the explanation about why the dipole did not bring the expected consequences. A 3-day Dipole in August doesn't make much of a difference. The way the pressure areas were positioned, didn't do much for the Beaufort Gyre either. It would have been top 2 without this Cyclone, but there will be dispersal and the scatter may show a slowness in extent drops at first. Wayne, are you saying that the cyclone will have a preserving effect overall and cause a stall in extent? Because of the cold it brings with it?
Toggle Commented Aug 13, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 5: big cyclone at Arctic Sea Ice
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During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Because of issues with data based on the SSMIS sensor aboard DMSP satellites, I mainly focus on higher-resolution AMSR2 data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), as reported on the... Continue reading
Posted Aug 13, 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
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I would keep an eye and remain active on the Forum, of course.
Toggle Commented Aug 12, 2016 on 1000 Forum members at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks, Fish and Geoff. I received some very large donations last year, which were a huge help (as I'm still building my house etc). If it wouldn't have been for those donations I wouldn't have been able to juggle all the balls (work-build-blog-live). This year there have been fewer donations, but maybe that's for the best as I'm considering going on a sabbatical after this melting season, and I'd feel guilty if I received too many donations. Like Neil says: There can be all the power and momentum in the world. Without focus and direction it is worthless and works against itself. Thanks for those resonating words, Neil.
Toggle Commented Aug 11, 2016 on 1000 Forum members at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim, I don't know what the 974.5 hPa for GAC-2012 is based on, as the lowest I saw it go at the time was 963 hPa. I'll have a new ASI update up tomorrow, in which I'll discuss this cyclone.
Toggle Commented Aug 11, 2016 on PIOMAS August 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
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As Arctic sea ice declines, more and more people learn about it and want to know more. It explains the relative success of this blog ever since its inception in 2010. The spectacular, iconic image of Arctic sea ice loss, as well as the realization of its potential consequences, automatically... Continue reading
Posted Aug 10, 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Rob, these guys know each other (from Jim's blog). Bill is just kidding. :-)
Toggle Commented Aug 9, 2016 on PIOMAS August 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
After the mild winter, and 2016 being lower than 2015 on practically every extent/area graph, despite weather conditions, there is no way that 2015 is so much lower than 2016 as the DMI volume graph suggests. Remember, the 2015 melting season followed the culmination of the 2013/2014 'rebound', and apart from July, didn't have any extraordinary weather conditions either. So, 2015 a bit lower than 2016? Sure, why not? But 2000 km3 lower, whereas the generally reliable PIOMAS has 2016 1000 km3 lower than 2015? No way, that's a difference of 3000 km3. Forget it, that's not realistic. But again, I'm not saying it should be disregarded. I'm saying I think it's quite safe to do so. We'll see in Oct/Nov when CryoSat-2 data becomes available again.
Toggle Commented Aug 6, 2016 on PIOMAS August 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
On the other hand according to DMI thickness maps, there's much more ice today than 365 days ago, and this cannot be disregarded. I think it's quite safe to disregard it, just like the output from the ACNFS model (which shows a much lower thickness than is probable). Either way, we'll see in Oct/Nov when CryoSat-2 data becomes available again.
Toggle Commented Aug 6, 2016 on PIOMAS August 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
the dwindling Arctic sea ice was just featured prominently during the 2016 Olympics opening ceremony in Rio. Really? Wow, that's amazing.
Toggle Commented Aug 6, 2016 on PIOMAS August 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice