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Maybe next year, Andy. :-) Here's a long summary of my impressions that I've just posted.
Tempus fugit. It feels like an eternity, but it was only last week that I went to Vienna to visit the EGU 2015 General Assembly. This is the overview I wrote last week of all the oral and poster sessions I planned to attend. Here's a summary of my impressions... Continue reading
Posted 10 hours ago at Arctic Sea Ice
Chris, when I say the North Pole has my special interest this year (I believe I said so on the ASIF), I don't mean to say that I'm certain it's going to be ice-free this year. But I'm not necessarily ruling it out either, even though it will take some pretty persistent weather conditions. Like you say, not only does the FYI expanse encompass the Pole this year (unlike in your other examples), but there was also open water all the way up to 86°N at the end of last melting season. And up to 85°N in 2013. But again, I need to see more comparisons for the Winter Analysis. It has the potential to become one of the more interesting features of this melting season.
Neven and others have observed FYI through to the pole. But due to the transpolar drift it is not the first time we've seen that and it does not guarantee a melt through to the pole. Chris, when did we see it? At this time of year, I mean.
Cincinnatus, you seem to be one of those people who maintain there is 0% chance that AGW (and Arctic sea ice loss) will have serious consequences. Perhaps you are of a different opinion, but this is how you come across. It's no wonder then that people react to you the way you do. This is after all a blog that attracts people who don't think that there is 0% chance that AGW (and Arctic sea ice loss) will have serious consequences, and find this alarming, given the rate of loss so far, and the fact that we do not know enough.
Thanks a lot, Jim. I thought I was overlooking something.
Toggle Commented Apr 19, 2015 on CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness maps at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks, PC! It takes a community to raise a blog.
Toggle Commented Apr 18, 2015 on CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness maps at Arctic Sea Ice
Wipneus, stupid question from me, but are there any distribution maps available. I mean, like the 28-day one, but for the past couple of years?
Toggle Commented Apr 18, 2015 on CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness maps at Arctic Sea Ice
Yesterday at one of the EGU 2015 poster sessions I had a short chat with Tommasso Parrinello, the ESA's CryoSat-2 mission manager. He told me lots of useful improvements have been made in the past couple of months, and if all goes well the satellite can remain operational up to... Continue reading
Posted Apr 17, 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi, Boa05att, Unfortunately I missed the morning session because my wife had a doctor appointment she couldn't postpone. Maybe next time we should make more of an effort to meet. ;-) Yes, that's the scoop. CryoSat now has maps!
I've just returned from Vienna, and it was as awesome as I had hoped it would be. But intense too! I was so focused on the Arctic sea ice stuff, that I was overwhelmed when I saw all those people and hundreds of posters. My first thought, when coming out of the garage into the main hall, actually was: "Why are there so many people here? Are they all here for the Arctic sea ice?". ;-) I'll write a short summary of what I've seen and heard (and some news I'm allowed to divulge, although the BBC gets the exclusive ;-) ) this weekend. It was great fun and well worth the drive. Cryospheric science rocks!!!
Thanks, Chris, that's what I'm thinking too. I had a look a couple of weeks ago, but I don't expect any big changes since then.
Toggle Commented Apr 13, 2015 on PIOMAS April 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Would that be because of the thickness from the pole to Siberia? I'm not sure how much of a player that will be. As I have the Gice data in front of me (but still only up to December), the years 2011, 2013 and 2014 (December) all look very similar for Laptev and are the worst state since 1979. Yes, but it's a hunch based on what I've seen so far of radar, thickness and ice age maps, all of them showing the NP to be covered with FYI. I'm going to compare thoroughly in the upcoming winter analysis (before the end of the month), but my impression is that this is a first. If you could (and have the data by then, probably not), please, let me know if PIOMAS is showing the same.
Toggle Commented Apr 13, 2015 on PIOMAS April 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Either way, I think the North Pole has a good chance of becoming the most interesting feature in the coming melting season.
Toggle Commented Apr 13, 2015 on PIOMAS April 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
If you can make it you would probably like this session on Wednesday afternoon: I hadn't even seen that one. Too bad I can't go on Wednesday too. Who knows maybe we'll bump into each other. That'd be fun. I have only meet two ASIB commenters so far. I've shaven my head yesterday, not completely, still 13 mm of hair. So now you know what to look for, and my badge, of course. ;-) I would prefer this as opposed to you having to take on the monumental task of reporting on this amazing list of topics. It would be easier, I think, for you to introduce the topics with a short take-away and links. I don't know yet what I'll report. I'm going there for the experience mostly. if you meet Brad Werner, send him a greetings ;-) AGU Scientist Asks, ‘Is Earth F**ked?’ I will, but what do I tell him? ;-) Neven, this is a wonderful opportunity for you to really gather the information to put climate change in proper perspective(Not that you don't do a great job already!) Hopefully you will reconsider going to more than just one day. Thanks, Vaughn. Maybe I'll go two days next year.
I've been living in Austria for 5 years now, living a mere 2 hour drive from Vienna, but somehow I've never come around to visiting the European Geophysical Union's annual general assembly. This year I've decided to make that drive to the Austria Center Vienna and attend EGU 2015, a... Continue reading
Posted Apr 12, 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
So, basically the buoys in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas are useless because they have been installed on the thinnest of all the ice there? And I mean useless in the sense that they don't tell us anything about the average thickness in those areas. Why do they even bother? I mean, I don't expect thickness change for a 1-1.5 metre thick floe to be very different from one year to the next.
Toggle Commented Apr 10, 2015 on PIOMAS April 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Those buoys (gauges, actually) measure changing ice thickness. They are mounted into flat 1m ice (i.e., thin 1st year ice) so that measurements (of changing thickness) will be most accurate. Do you have a reference for this? I thought buoys were usually mounted on thick, multi-year ice that has a better chance of not completely melting out (because what happens to the buoy then).
Toggle Commented Apr 10, 2015 on PIOMAS April 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven, I'm now interested in who has been making the claim of a post 2006 stabilisation. It's such a weird conclusion I'd love to see how someone has twisted the data to support it. Chris, it's of no importance really, just this final paragraph of a misinforming article about how models predicted Antarctic sea ice decline. No mention of Manabe et al. (1992), of course.
Toggle Commented Apr 6, 2015 on PIOMAS April 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
A while ago this comment was sent to me by Harel from, which I've promised to reproduce here (forgot to do it last month): This short note is about Arctic volume where I was so irritated at a claim on some "geek" blog that it has "stabilized and even recovered slightly" since 2006 that I sat down and typed in the Hamilton numbers. I do hope this admittedly very small contribution (such as it is) from me is useful (a) so people can copy and paste into Comments on websites that do not allow images and (b)I did compute and include decadal averages. Caution: it is NOT true that the Arctic has "stabilized" (let alone improved) since 2006. It's important to remember that volume of ice depends on both its area and its thickness, and thickness has a long term decreasing trend. Here are the hard numbers for Volume, showing more than HALF of ice volume has been lost (Sept. minimum annual ice volume for each year) since the "stabilization" of 2006: Minimum Arctic sea ice volume, in thousands of km^3 (cubic kilometers) From Larry Hamilton with PIOMAS data: 1979: 16.9 1980: 16.1 1981: 12.6 1982: 13.4 1983: 15.1 1984: 14.5 1985: 14.5 1986: 15.9 1987: 15.2 1988: 14.9 1989: 14.6 1990: 13.7 1991: 13.5 1992: 14.9 1993: 12.2 1994: 13.6 1995: 11.2 1996: 13.7 1997: 13.2 1998: 11.5 1999: 10.9 2000: 11.0 2001: 12.2 2002: 10.8 2003: 10.2 2004: 9.9 2005: 9.2 2006: 9.0 2007: 6.5 2008: 7.1 2009: 6.8 2010: 4.6 2011: 4.3 2012: 3.7 2013: 5.4 1980s average: 14.68 1990s average: 12.84 2000s average: 9.27 2006 level: 9.0 2010-2014 average: is (4.6+4.3+3.7+5.4+6.8)/5 = 4.96 This 4.96 (2010-2014 5-YEAR AVG.) average is: *** A 66% decrease from the 1980s average *** A 61% decrease from the 1990s average *** A 47% decrease from the 2000s average ** And compared to 2006 when things supposedly "stabilized"? A 45% loss comparing the last five years' volume with that of 2006. For more background, see Neven Acropolis' blog on Typepad, and also the excellent skepticalscience website for more science, and science rebuttals of common myths.
Toggle Commented Apr 5, 2015 on PIOMAS April 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: After the levelling off in volume gain we saw during February (see previous PIOMAS update), the 2015 trend... Continue reading
Posted Apr 5, 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thumbs in the wind, guys, learn to think independently. A good cliché to end the discussion. And it will definitely be interesting to see what will happen to all that multi-year ice in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, however thick it is. I'll do comparisons of those ice age/thickness maps in the upcoming winter analysis (2-3 weeks from now).
Toggle Commented Apr 2, 2015 on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
So it's likely the pole would become ice-free this year too. I don't know about likely, but this could definitely be an important theme this melting season. Initial conditions suggest it's possible, the weather will determine whether it happens. I'll have more on that in the upcoming winter analysis. Cincinnatus (like your nick BTW!), this would be an asylum if everyone would topple over each other claiming the Central Arctic will be ice-free all year round by 2050. "No, 2030!" "No, this year!" "No, next week!" But as you can see only one person suggested it might happen in the next 20 years. I don't know about timing, but it looks way too soon to me (in other words, that's what I wish to think). But if AGW-induced Arctic sea ice loss keeps continuing at this pace - let's hope some natural variability or a negative feedback puts a brake on it - and the Arctic becomes (virtually) ice-free in September, this will be the next step. And like Kevin O'Neill says: it has happened before. It's all a question of timing. For your last and most interesting point: I don't really see how ice thickness can be higher than 6m outside that band of multi-year ice, pressed against Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago. Sure, some of it has been transported a long way towards the Chukchi Sea, and this part might on average be 4-5 m thick, but 6 m? I don't think so. Scroll down on the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs page to the Sea ice thickness, volume & age segment and notice how broken up that MYI pack is, interspersed with first-year ice. Depending on the weather, it could weaken that whole MYI pack sufficiently for it to melt out in August/September. Some years it does, other years it doesn't.
Toggle Commented Apr 2, 2015 on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
Pete, I read this interesting article on CarbonBrief two days ago.
Toggle Commented Apr 2, 2015 on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
JAXA reports another relatively big drop of 72K, increasing the difference with the max to 166K. So this is now 100% over, and it's not just the lowest, but also the earliest max in the JAXA record since 2002. I didn't really call the max, but I'm glad the forecast was more or less correct. And exciting to see how close JAXA SIE came to the max after all.
Toggle Commented Mar 29, 2015 on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice