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Neven
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JAXA SIE. It went from second lowest on June 10th, to 10th or 11th one month later. This doesn't apply as much to PIOMAS, I agree, but there too the gap with other years has been slowly increasing. So, relative to other years, melting has been on the whole below average these past few weeks. But this seems to be mostly caused on the periphery, because 2018 still is among the lowest in the 'inner core'. This implies, like you say, that melt will accelerate again (relative to other years). That was the whole point. 2018 may be 10th or whatever on some charts, but it isn't telling the whole story. There's a discussion on the ASIF whether weather conditions need to be more conducive to melt for that to happen ostensibly, or whether there will be a cliff, regardless of the weather. I'm inclined towards the former, but there seems to be a lot of (late) melt ponding and dispersion, so when the weather does switch, this melting season may go a lot lower than the numbers predict right now. No signs of that in the weather forecast as of yet.
Toggle Commented 6 days ago on PIOMAS July 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
The real slowdown - relatively speaking - started around mid-June, so that's a couple of weeks. The point is 'that 2018 isn't far behind at all in those regions that determine the minimum'. If it weren't for the current weather forecast, I would say that the melting season may have some tricks up its sleeve. But the clock is ticking.
Toggle Commented 7 days ago on PIOMAS July 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
There's a big caveat at the end of the post, showing volume and extent/area graphs without the periphery like Hudson Bay.
Toggle Commented Jul 8, 2018 on PIOMAS July 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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What a coincidence. Just like last month, I will have to precede the PIOMAS update with a short news flash that a very strong cyclone is barreling through the Arctic. But this time too, the cyclone will be short-lived, and so it's not entirely clear whether, on the whole, it... Continue reading
Posted Jul 8, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Thanks, Rob. I fixed the images.
Toggle Commented Jul 7, 2018 on PIOMAS June 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
In 2012 I learned that a good beginning is half the work, as the Dutch say. JAXA is back up. According to an ASIF member: JAXA is back up. July 1st extent is 9,282,553 km^2 putting it 461K behind the record low for that day. It is in 8th place 276K behind 6th. The June decline was just 1,459,260 making it the lowest since 2015 and the third lowest in the Jaxa record since 2003.
Toggle Commented Jul 2, 2018 on PIOMAS June 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
According to their Twitter feed it's a server problem. Given that other sources using AMSR2 data are still up and up-to-date, I expect it will be solved at some point.
Toggle Commented Jun 28, 2018 on PIOMAS June 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Before kicking off this latest PIOMAS update, there's a little piece of information I'd like to share: A massive cyclone is passing through the Arctic right now. The cyclone has bottomed out about half a day ago at 966 hPa, which is slightly lower than the 968 hPa storm we... Continue reading
Posted Jun 8, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Looking forward to your update Neven! First thing in the morning, tomorrow morning, John. :-)
Toggle Commented Jun 7, 2018 on PIOMAS May 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks, Rob! I thought about the Rutgers June graph before falling asleep yesterday, and now I don't even have to go there to see it. :-) even though sea ice extent in May was at a record low, sea ice area is actually just 3rd or 4rth lowest. This means the ice pack is still fairly 'compact' which reduces the amount of heat the ice pack will absorb from the ever higher sun in the Arctic. I updated my NSIDC compactness graph yesterday, and also noticed that compactness is relatively high for the time of year. I had expected it to be lower because of all the clear skies during May, but apparently it was still too cold for some serious melt ponding to occur.
Toggle Commented Jun 6, 2018 on PIOMAS May 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Clueless FM used to be known as Viddaloo. I banned him from the ASIF and from here because of his inability to communicate properly. Every question is an attack, and he is, of course, the modern equivalent of Galileo. I'm banning him again now, and would kindly ask him to not come back again under another name.
Toggle Commented May 30, 2018 on PIOMAS May 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
It's the same forecast, but it has changed again. I tend to check out the ECMWF forecast on Tropical Tidbits, because it shows highest and lowest pressure of systems. There's not much use looking beyond D6, because the forecast becomes very volatile from one day to the next (as we see today, for example). But here's what I wrote over on the ASIF, posting D1-D6: The ECMWF SLP forecast is looking a bit worse again now, with high pressure remaining relatively high and quite extensive. D7-10 has the high pressure moving over to the Siberian side of the Arctic, but forecasts that far out tend to be volatile, and so there's no use in posting them.
Toggle Commented May 18, 2018 on PIOMAS May 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
The ECMWF forecast is actually looking somewhat better (for the ice) than it did a few days ago. The high pressure isn't as high, going below 1030 hPa again in a few days, and instead of covering almost the entire Arctic, it gets restricted to the Beaufort Sea. But it hasn't been good so far. And according to GFS temps will remain anomalously high. June is going to be very important.
Toggle Commented May 17, 2018 on PIOMAS May 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Regarding the anti-cyclonic weather pattern: Remember that in 2016 anti-cyclonic pattern persisted until the end of May Yes, and this probably helped 2016 come in second lowest after all (in combination with some big cyclones in August, here's the 2016 overview). I'd say the high pressure is more widespread and higher later into the month than it was in 2016, but it's close. And we still have some ways to go until the month is out. The 10-day forecast isn't looking all that great, though, even if it has improved somewhat. But you're right that June may be even more important.
Toggle Commented May 11, 2018 on PIOMAS May 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Personally, I think it's the worst May I have seen so far (but I would have to check my writing in May 2012). Of course, this can flip within days. But things couldn't be much worse for the ice than they are right now. If we see this kind of prolonged weather conditions in June, let alone July, there's no telling what might happen to the ice pack.
Toggle Commented May 11, 2018 on PIOMAS May 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: The maximum for sea ice volume was reached during April. According to the PIOMAS model, it peaked on... Continue reading
Posted May 6, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Gentlemen, if you're going to take this route, I'd kindly invite you to come to the ASIF. That's a better place for bickering.
Toggle Commented Apr 18, 2018 on PIOMAS April 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: March 2018 turned out to be quite cold, relatively speaking (more on that below). And thus, as expected,... Continue reading
Posted Apr 5, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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I actually haven't started on a new PIOMAS update yet, Jim, so thanks. As expected sea ice volume has gone back a bit towards the pack. I'll wait for the official data.
Toggle Commented Apr 3, 2018 on Bering goes extreme at Arctic Sea Ice
The ASIF is back up again. Thanks to Fred the Easter Bunny. :-)
Toggle Commented Apr 1, 2018 on Bering goes extreme at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks, Rob. I'll see if I can get it up again.
Toggle Commented Apr 1, 2018 on Bering goes extreme at Arctic Sea Ice
That is awesome. Don Perovich is awesome. :-)
Toggle Commented Mar 31, 2018 on Bering goes extreme at Arctic Sea Ice
Over on the ASIF commenter Romett1 posted this table showing Bering sea icea area numbers according to NSIDC:
Toggle Commented Mar 27, 2018 on Bering goes extreme at Arctic Sea Ice
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The melting season hasn't started in earnest yet, but it seems the Bering Sea hasn't received the memo. For almost the entire winter, sea ice has been reluctant to form there, and now that the Sun has returned, the ice edge has started to retreat to record high latitudes, past... Continue reading
Posted Mar 27, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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I've also added a bar graph to the blog post, showing total freeze for the 2006-2018 period.