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July polls on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum are up: NSIDC SIE September average and CT SIA daily minimum.
The first Sea Ice Outlook of this year has been published. The SIO is organized by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (as part of the Arctic research program 'Study of Environmental Arctic Change', or SEARCH), and is a compilation of projections for the September 2015 Arctic sea ice extent, based... Continue reading
Posted 5 days ago at Arctic Sea Ice
As a rule I almost never link to disinformation websites, but this is funny. I'm guessing a combination of blind bias and a busy schedule (one must try to be charitable) have caused Anthony Watts to completely misinterpret a research paper, published today in Nature Climate Change. I'm sure he... Continue reading
Posted 5 days ago at Arctic Sea Ice
My guess would be that by the time the ponds drain, the damage is already done.
I'm not seeing any reason to get over-excited by a large melt this year. More is definitely needed, Pete. My main interest is in how well the rebound holds up. WRT to the HUGE: I referred to the comparison with 2012, 2013 and 2014 around this time, not that anomalies are huge in general because where once was ice, now is water. Check those other years, and you'll see SSTs on the Pacific side are much, much warmer than those previous years. 2007 probably was similar, but DMI doesn't have a public archive for these images. This makes me wonder whether that red blob and the ridiculously resilient ridge, etc., in the North Pacific may have an influence this year. Remember, ocean heat flux is one of those unknown known jokers in the deck. And if that joker is being played (of which we know nothing, except perhaps after the fact), what will it do to the volume rebound? Wait and see...
Excellent, as always. Watching… Thanks, Kevin. I'm a bit afraid that I use too many words, and that this scares people off. But this is the only way I can write a comprehensive update with (almost) all the ins and outs.
Exactly, NC, no Beaufort Gyre, no transport of sea ice out of Fram. But conversely, large parts of the ice pack near the Siberian coast will receive and absorb a lot of sunshine. Provided the forecast comes about exactly that way, of course.
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2014 period (NSIDC has... Continue reading
Posted Jun 21, 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks, Susan. Links fixed. I had noticed that the spectacular early start for extent and area was returning to earlier (still lower) norms, so how does the above-mentioned concentration figure into that (not too technical, please, if possible). Are you referring to the low (and early) maximums? Compactness is usually high for most of the year, around 95%. It doesn't tell us much then. It's when the melting season gets going, and melt ponds start to form and/or the ice pack gets dispersed (open water between floes), that area will go down faster than extent, and the compactness percentage follows (see explanation in the post). Is that what you mean?
Toggle Commented Jun 15, 2015 on Melt Pond May 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
340K? Wow, that's massive. A quick look at my CT SIA spreadsheet shows a drop that big hasn't happened since 2008.
Toggle Commented Jun 15, 2015 on Melt Pond May 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
May is the month when melt ponds first start to form on the floes of the Arctic sea ice pack. Melt ponds are important because they soak up more sunlight than the ice would, speeding up the melting process and thus preconditioning the sea ice. When there is lots of... Continue reading
Posted Jun 14, 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
University of New Hampshire professor of sociology and occasional guest blogger on the Arctic Sea Ice Blog, Lawrence 'Larry' Hamilton, is doing ongoing research into the public perception of what's going on in the Arctic (I've written about his work previously here and here). In anticipation of a new research... Continue reading
Posted Jun 14, 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Bill can't log on temporarily and asked me to post the following: Well Kevin, as it's the centenary year for the WI in this scepter'd isle, perhaps that should say "Jam & Jerusalem".
Toggle Commented Jun 12, 2015 on What it's all about at Arctic Sea Ice
We need only look to the world's ice cover to see the urgency with which emissions need to come down, scientists told delegates at this week's climate talks in Bonn, Germany. At a press conference today, US and German scientists updated negotiators and journalists with the latest science on the... Continue reading
Posted Jun 11, 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Dr. Jason Box has a great summary of the start of the Greenland melting season on his Meltfactor blog. Here's a selection: Greenland melt season kicks off slowly in 2015; the new abnormal Sitting here in Kangerlussuaq west Greenland expecting not a large melt year. Like another late melt season,... Continue reading
Posted Jun 10, 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks for that, Werther. Awesome. Things have slowed down in the Arctic right now, but the second round is about to begin.
Villabolo, I believe mainstream opinion among Arctic experts is somewhere between 2030 and 2040 for a ice-free day in September (I'm guessing they would say an ice-free summer would probably come decades after that). Some say it could happen earlier. I personally think that it could happen any year as soon as volume is low enough at the start of a melting season. Perhaps it already is. With just the right weather conditions that remain persistent for all the melting season (caused by a 'stuck' jet stream, for instance), it could happen. But it would take a perfect chronology of events, a freak year, to happen earlier.
Toggle Commented Jun 9, 2015 on What it's all about at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks, A-Team. Very interesting.
Toggle Commented Jun 8, 2015 on What it's all about at Arctic Sea Ice
Most of you interested in this and thinking about contributing a prediction, probably know about it already, but for those of you who don't: you can send in your prediction to the Sea Ice Outlook as organised by the Sea Ice Prediction Network under the umbrella of the Arctic Research... Continue reading
Posted Jun 7, 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Reposted from Peter Sinclair's Climatecrocks blog, a short CBS report that discusses research by Dr. Jennifer Francis linking Arctic warming to the erratic jet stream we’ve seen in recent extreme events: This is one of the reasons why the Arctic is closer to us than we think, and why its... Continue reading
Posted Jun 7, 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Our friend has bottomed out at 970 hPa:
Cyclone is now at 971 hPa:
Thanks, Rob. I need to correct something I've said: It's not that strong a cyclone anyhow, but large, yes. I was wrong. It's pretty strong for a cyclone. Not GAC-2012 material, but not exactly weak either. I didn't look at the forecast careful enough. According to Environment Canada the cyclone is at 975 hPa right now, and still dropping:
I don't think it's relevant right now, navegante. I believe Ekman pumping requires (lots of) open water. It's not that strong a cyclone anyhow, but large, yes.
For those who like that kind of thing (I know I do), I have opened two polls on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum, one for the CT SIA daily minimum and one for the NSIDC SIE September minimum (monthly average). They're at the top of this list of threads here.