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Lord Soth
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This is my second post this year. Back in the spring I predicted, no matter how bad the weather got (for ice melting), you would never see ice extents over 5 million km^2 as long as CO2 continued rise (based on IJIS Ver 2) While I was almost proven wrong, but today IJIS finally squeaked below 5 million km^2. I used to post a lot, however I have come to realize that despite the fact that the trend is towards zero arctic ice. Natural variability with the orientation of the Arctic Oscillation, and the Dipole anomaly is going to decide the next minimum. The last two years, Mother Nature threw the dice and we won/lost depending on how you look at things. Next year Mother Nature will again throw the dice, and we could be looking at a new minimum, or another year like 2013 or 2014. However with the increase, in CO2, eventually the roll of the dice will make little or no difference to an ice free arctic, just the date that is happens. So better/worse luck next year depending if you are an optimist, defeatist or have just given up and became a realist :)
Toggle Commented Sep 10, 2014 on PIOMAS September 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
I have come to the conclusion, that it is not worth the effort to make predictions before July1, and preferably before the third week of July. In the post 2007 sea ice epoch, every year has been a contender. By the third week of July we have our finalist list, as can be seen by the IJIS (Ver 2) full graph in which we have 2007,2011, 2012 intercept. After this date, it is mostly the weather pattern, to give the final results. Concentrating on single factors such as early melt ponding as a major factor for ice loss on 8 post 2007 seasons, is statistically pure garbage. As far as ice loss, we are on the road to zero artic sea ice. This may take 20-30 years on a slow bumpy road, or we get a sudden plunge by another year like 2007. As far as predictions, I have one. Since 2007 we are in a new epoch. Despite the worst arctic summer in 40 years, 2013 sea ice lost was below 5 million sq. km (using IJIS Version 2 Reference). My prediction, is that we will never see sea ice extent over 5 million sq. km for multitude of generations.
Toggle Commented Jul 1, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
If it was a lead cell battery, it definitely would end up in a polar bears stomach. They must love then tangy flavor :)
Toggle Commented Apr 7, 2014 on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
Well actually its not Multiyear ice until Oct 1, as that the convention that the Ice Service uses for the ice birthday. Even then, it will be a mixture of multi-year and first year ice. If we get anything resembling a normal summer, the first year ice will melt out, warming up the water around the multi year ice, and by the end of August 2014, a good chunk of multiyear ice will be gone, and we will be in a race for a new minimum. 2013 was an outlier, and pretty close to a black swan. I don't expect to see an arctic summer like 2013 for a very long time.
Toggle Commented Sep 18, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Actually IIJS was at 4809288 as of Sept 12. You are quoting IIJS Version 1, which is now obsolete (and will finish reporting on Sept 30). IIJS Version 2.0 is higher resolution and much more accurate. Also they have adjusted IIJS Version 1 numbers to reflect the new algorthim. As of yesterday, we were below 2010, but you are right, I don't expect the late season dip we saw in 2010, so 2013 will likely finish in 6th place.
Toggle Commented Sep 14, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Well, 2013 has broken below 5 Million Km^2 for extent. However it took an algorithm change to do it (I'm sure Neven will have an entire article on the change) The arctic has thrown the coldest summer in over 50 years at us, and we still broke 5 Million Km^2. With CO2 above 400 ppm, it will probably take something close to an extinction level event, to stop the transition to a summer time ice free arctic in the next decade. It will be interesting what an ice free arctic in the summer will look like in the winter. We may be in the situation where the center of the arctic ocean (which is not the north pole) will be ice free, during the winter. At the onset of winter, ice starts forming in the shallow bays, and then progress away from shore. With no ice in the central arctic at the start of the melt season after an ice free summer, ice will expand from the existing shoreline, with any ice forming in the central arctic ocean will be pushed by winds and currents towards the pack extending from the shore. Also storms will have the full exposure of the arctic to whip up the waves, and bring up the deeper warm water. It will be interesting to see if my theory will be correct, once we are rid of the summer ice pack in the arctic.
Looking at the DMI North of 80 temps for the past 56 years, I would say this has been the coldest arctic summer (North of 80) in the past 56 years. I don't have any elaborate theories, I believe it is just natural variability. Everybody that lives in the mid latitudes, can remember being ripped off by a cool rainy summer. For me it was 2007, a few years latter it was southern Ontario with a pesky upper level Hudson Bay Low that spun around all summer, bringing cool showery weather. Last year it was Great Britain turn, with one low right after another; all summer long. This year was the Arctic's turn for a crappy summer. Despite all this bad luck, the ice will finish between 4th and 6th place, which is amazing. If we had a normal year, 2013 would be in competition with 2012. If we had a year like 2007, the ice would be close to being wiped out. Come spring 2014, the slate will be wiped clean, as much of the ice that did not melt is flushed out of the arctic. The odds of having another year like 2013 is rather small, so next year the horse race will once again be to vie for a new minimum.
Toggle Commented Aug 18, 2013 on ASI 2013 update 7: cold and cloudy at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven, the melt ponds did not freeze over, they drained. A good example is the North Pole Web Cam. http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2013/WEBCAM2/ARCHIVE/npeo_cam2_20130727131632.jpg and a few days latter: http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2013/WEBCAM2/ARCHIVE/npeo_cam2_20130728131212.jpg Looks like the water dropped a good two feet or more, by comparing the buoy shaped structure. In the past few days, wet snow has probably covered the drained ponds, making the situation worse. I believe an early melt is critical in getting a new record, and clear skies are critical during June. Right now, I say we will be lucky to break 5 million in extent. However we are in era where extent and area does not matter. It's ice volume that counts, and this is in a very unhealthy state. This years weather related recovery, will be wiped out, if we get a normal arctic summer.
A week ago, before the second PAC, it appeared that 2013 was going to catch up to the 2007,2012, 2011 group of years. Now since the PAC of 2013, things have slowed down tremendously. We seem to be creating a lot of rotten ice, but it is not going away, and these storms are spreading it out. Look at the DMI 30% extent map, it has basically flat line. August is flash melt month, but is their enough energy to finish a good section of ice off. With the North of 80 temps below average since early April, I don't believe it can be done. I don't believe however bad the weather is, we will ever return to above 5 million km^2, end of season extents. However from looking at the graphs, my theory may be tested.
Toggle Commented Jul 29, 2013 on Second storm at Arctic Sea Ice
Michael Sweet: There is a strong correlation between cloud cover and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which can be found under the Arctic Sea Ice Graph section. General when the AO is positive, the Arctic is under low pressure, and when the AO is negative, high pressure and clear skies prevail. For 2013, the AO has been mostly positive since early April, with plenty of cloudy cool weather. Of Interest, the AO finally broke -1 yesterday, which is in divergence to the great arctic cyclone of 2013. So either the AO will quickly head positive, or the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2013 will be a bust.
I am totally amazed how much ice is melting for this cool crappy arctic summer. I have revised my numbers from (lucky to break 5 million km^2 from last month) to 4.25 million km^2. Six years ago it took a combination of perfect weather to get a record arctic melt, that stood for 5 years until 2012. This year will probably tie the 2007 record, with one of the coolest arctic summers in a good while. Which says a lot for the condition of the ice.
The AO has been positive or neutral for the last 2 1/2 months and is forecast to be this way, for the next two weeks. The arctic skies have been overcast, and temperatures have average 2 degrees below normal for several months. The big question is, when and if the skies clear. If the stormy overcast clear summer continues, then I say we will be lucky to break 5 million square kilometers. If the skies clear soon, it is still possible to hit the mid 3's. Looking back, 2006 had so much promise, but fizzled out, and 2012 broke an all time record, and they have roughly the same extent, for this given date. The ice is doomed however. If we get another 2007 weather pattern, the only ice left will be hugging the Greenland and Ellesmere coast. Statistically, the weather has to clear sometime, however this is what the British was saying last year (worst British summer on record). So I will just patiently wait for the cliff which may or may not arrive.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22486153 With C02 topping 400ppm for the first time in three to five million years, expect 2012 to become the new norm.
After this Frakenstorm*, the US congress will probably be lobbying to have Mother Nature declared as a terrorist :) *Frakenstorm was chosen because it took pieces of several weather systems, to create a monster of a storm.
Toggle Commented Oct 26, 2012 on Looking for winter weirdness at Arctic Sea Ice
The US media is now calling the storn approaching the east coast FRANKENSTORM. http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/10/25/beware-the-frankenstorm-collision-between-hurricane-sandy-early-winter-storm-expected-to-cause-1b-mess/ Hurricane, Winter-storm and Arctic Air meet in vicious love triangle over New York City How's that for Weirdness
Toggle Commented Oct 26, 2012 on Looking for winter weirdness at Arctic Sea Ice
I just did a quick look at the North Pole Web Cam, which is now at 79 North. I didn't expect to see anything, but we have a clear picture, and and explanation of what happened to Web Cam #1. http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2012/17.jpg It's my understanding that Camera #1 and Camera #2 were pointed at each other and roughly 100 feet apart. Camera #1 stopped transmitting on Oct 4. It looks like it sunk as the ice pan broke up. Camera #2 is probably not far behind. However arctic night is fast approaching and will soon descend over camera #2 As with the Gompertz curve, the way things are going, it probably too conservative, and we will probably see the last of septeber ice before 2020.
Toggle Commented Oct 10, 2012 on Naive Predictions of 2013 Sea Ice at Arctic Sea Ice
With IJIS finally crossing the 4M km^2, we had more than a month (32 days) below 4M. Unbelieveable. And it has been 37 days below the previous record. I remember back in the 70's when our ice breakers had to get out of the Arctic by the third week of Septeber, to avoid being stuck for the winter. Now it's the end of September and Sail boats could easily sail the Northern Route of the North West Passage, with only a few strips of 1/10 ice. http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS56CT/20120924180000_WIS56CT_0006670631.gif
This is getting crazy. Everytime I draw a line in the ice; it melts ! The Average DMI temperture North of 80, is only -2 and is a good 6 degrees celsisu above normal. You can barely make Nilas in perfect condtions. Here is the image from the North Pole Web Cam (which should be called the almost entering Fran Strait Web Cam) http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2012/7.jpg Just another rainy day at 81.7 degrees North
Take a look at the DMI North of 80 average tempertures. Shooting up again. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php Please go down into that arctic night. Temps should not sear and melt at close of day; Rage, Rage agaisnt the dying of the light. With my apologies to Dylan Thomas.
NSIDC is still going down, after a small spike. I wonder if the IJIS will do a double dip this year also. Anybody noticed that the Cryosphere Today Central Arctic Sea Ice Anomaly has gone off the bottom of the chart at -1.5M km^2 http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.1.html
Toggle Commented Sep 10, 2012 on Minimum open thread at Arctic Sea Ice
The date for the minimun will be up to the weather, but I believe we are probably only talking about a maximum of another 100K of sea ice lost in the worst case scenario. I do however predict a long flat bottom, before recovery in late September. The Cryosphere anomaly will drop below three, forcing them to extend their graph. If you look at the DMI north of 80 temperture graph, the average temperture is going down, but it is going down slowly and without any wild swings like the previous years. Just like fall is delayed by warm seas in coastal areas and islands, The sea ice island north of 80, will encounter the same effect to a lesser extent. The 2012 DMI north of 80 average temperture graph is only a couple of degrees below freezing. The curve for the past few weeks really stand out when comparing against previous years.
Toggle Commented Sep 9, 2012 on Minimum open thread at Arctic Sea Ice
When NSIDC releases the Setember Ice age chart in October, I will do the calculations properly using Global Mapper and convert to an equal area projection, if it is not already in one of those projections.
Crandles, that image does not include Hudson Bay, Labrador Sea, Fox Basin, Davis Strait, etc, etc. Well not technically ice in the arctic, its part of the southern extent of the arctic sea ice pack in March. Also, I used the ice edge for Sept 5, which gets rid of half the purple in the August 2012 image again.
What scares me is the amount of first year remaining in the Arctic. Taking the third week of August NSIDC ice age chart, and comparing those areas to the Sept 5 sea ice extent limits, I got roughly 400,000 km of first year ice left in the Arctic, and its not over yet. We had around 11.4 million km of ice at the start of the melt season, so we have already lost 96.5% of first year ice so far. Add in the transpolar drift, we will see a generation of ice that will be virtually non-existant in March. But fear not, I still hold out hope for recovery via a super volcano eruption, major asteroid impact, basalt floor eruption or some other extinction level event :)
The random chance of a 7.2 sigma event, occurs once per the current age of the universe. Now thats one big Black Swan!