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notlarrysabato
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Between them, depends how turnout is. Boysko has a lot more Dems, especially ones that don't vote in off years and have no idea who Rust is. If she turns them out, she stands the best chance. If her electorate is same people who have voted for Rust for 20 years, then Murphy has a better chance.
in terms of danner- loudoun running close to ffx numbers is a formula for GOP to win there, not a formula likely to work for dems.
ur right, although i remember it being a big issue in the race around sept 30 because something happened then. anyway, will try to pull stuff up from that when i finish these other districts.
high single digits to start- not anymore.
He lead in the summer in both GOP and Dem polling by almost 10 points while no other challenger at that time was closer than 8 points down. Obviously he's headed one direction while others have gone the other way.
Jacob- that is correct and everything in that post is fair game to be cited to this blog. You see anything in there about "Obama Democrats"?
Toggle Commented Oct 31, 2013 on RPV Sending Out False Mailers at Not Larry Sabato
Stephen- its just the autho line- Reed is paying for those- state dems haven't done anything
Toggle Commented Oct 6, 2013 on House Preview- Outer NoVA at Not Larry Sabato
The Bell thing should be obvious Dan. For Heddleston, they were invisible with $$$$ while he was getting pummeled in the mailbox.
Toggle Commented Oct 5, 2013 on House Preview- Outer NoVA at Not Larry Sabato
Dan, the printing cost you list is only a portion of the costs that are tax exempt. The state doesn't track this well. Over 30 years of this tax break the benefit has likely fluctuated year to year. You're right it might only total the hundreds of millions instead of a billion- but its a lot of money coming out of education, health services, etc. either way.
Toggle Commented Aug 22, 2013 on Newspapers Need Disclosure Also at Not Larry Sabato
I'm sure yours are right, I was responding from memory.
SK 602 to Sites 355
I can't remember if Stu Mehndelson and Bob Dix were in last 13 years, they both might be right before that cut off. Oh and Jeannemarie in 2001 and 2003. I'm still catching up here, I could remember more if I had a list in front of me.
Board of Sups: Joan Dubois (Dranesville) Elaine McConnell (Springfield) John Cook (Braddock) Mike Frey (Sully) Plus Ken Cuccinelli and Steve Hunt from the link I gave you earlier. There have been many others. Doubt there are "news links" to most of these endorsements since they don't have much of a PR shop. But every one of those endorsements above have def. happened in the "last 13 years". I assume they say 13 years because Stan took office in Jan of 2000 and prior to that there was a Republican Sheriff.
I asked one Democratic Sheriff to weigh in on this gun issue because of Todd's comments. They have no dog in the fight and said this about the AR-15: "Almost no one in law enforcement is ever issued an AR-15 military type assault weapon. Everyone is issued a pistol and if you are in a vehicle you are issued a shotgun. AR-15 type rifles are only issued to deputies and police in tactical units such as SWAT and specially designated responders for incidents that may require a rifle". In short this is not your standard law enforcement firearm. For anyone interested, check out the NY Times story this weekend about the militarization of local police across the U.S. This is actually an issue of growing importance for those paying attention to local law enforcement.
Well, they lied about only supporting three Republicans, unless you mangled that also.
Every story on here comes from people sharing information. I know about Mark Sites voter records because Kincaid supporters sent it to me. I know about Stacey's guns because a Sites supporter sent it to me. So spare me the fake crying because you don't like what the other campaign is (truthfully) sending out about your candidate. The Deputy Sheriffs have endorsed every Republican on the Fairfax Board in the last decade except Pat Herrity. That alone is more than three. And Steve Shannon had no primary in 2009, so it sounds like your source was way overstating their case.
If that was the point you were trying to make, you did it in an extremely obnoxious way. I'm not "hoping" people conclude anything. Since your reading skills suck, I will recap for you the post you are commenting on. I did not endorse Mark Sites. I'm not going to endorse him for the reasons listed above. This post was about *both* candidates and their weaknesses. Your behavior here is petulant and you are arguing against no one.
Todd, I don't understand your Jewish comment at all. Are you making that comment because I am Jewish? To be honest I am not sure I should even respond to you after a comment like that. In terms of what I think of the deputy sheriffs, you are not correct. Long before you were active, I worked on Stan's campaign in 1999. Since then I have watched the deputy sheriffs union behave in a reckless manner over and over again. What they did in 2011 was only one of the many times they have done this. So its not about one race, it is about a pattern of supporting right wing candidates in close races over and over again.
Todd, Stacey was promoting her purchase of the weapons (and the fact she got a discount for being an active duty law enforcement agent) within the department and sent emails from her fairfax county email as well as taking the weapons around the department to show people. I don't think the "command staff" has 12 people on it, but I get your point on that. When attending a political function, they should have left the guns locked in their cars. That's totally inappropriate and Sites should have a discussion with all the deputies on when it is appropriate to be open carrying a county weapon when off duty. Obviously that list does not include political functions they are attending as guests.
Todd- The county SEIU hasn't been around for very many cycles. But in 2011 they supported a Republican in the only close Board of Supervisors race in Braddock. So on a county level they look very questionable. For the record, I have done a number of consulting projects with coalitions that include the national SEIU and have a good relationship with them. In fact I just talked to someone there today when they saw this story- and they were going to circulate word at the HQ about this because they saw this local as a potential black eye for them.
I don't remember, and not sure I want to put names on the "google" that were not major players.
I spoke to the Fairfax Chair at the time- he wanted a polling place for exactly the reasons discussed in the post above. End of story.
Thank you Gail. These types of decisions are best left with each county. If Craig had given each county the ability to have their own polling place- as well as the ability to waive that right- then there would be no problem with Fairfax voting in Alexandria. That unfortunately was not what happened and the result was the first multi-locality legislative caucus in recent Northern VA history to not have polling places in every locality it represented. I also would challenge Craig's comments on the 5 days notice, Englin resigned in the spring, the special election was held in the fall. The 5 days is when the Governor called the election quickly- but everyone knew there was a vacancy coming and could have been prepared.
Cyclone- going around to polls I saw one young person voting all day. It was at Lake Braddock in the afternoon, and he looked about 18. He was there with his mom and clearly unhappy to be there, but I guess she wanted to double her vote.