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oldprof
I'm an investment manager with a wife, a teenager, and a dog.
Interests: reading, technology, gadgets, baseball, bridge, other games of the mind, and contemplating the human condition.
Recent Activity
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The economic calendar is light, but it really would not matter. The defeat (via retreat) of the effort to replace Obamacare will dominate financial market stories this week. The pundits will be asking: What does the health care decision mean... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at A Dash of Insight
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Many seem convinced that market risk is elevated – perhaps at an all-time high. I know this from contacts on my vacation, where I see many high-net worth people, messages from my clients (an intelligent and cool-headed lot), and even... Continue reading
Posted 5 days ago at A Dash of Insight
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The economic calendar is light until the Friday employment report. Most of the punditry are still digesting the more aggressive talk in the recent speeches from Fed participants. With many observers expecting a correction and looking for a catalyst, pundits... Continue reading
Posted Mar 4, 2017 at A Dash of Insight
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For the last three weeks, the term "overbought" has been frequently used to describe the overall market as well as many specific stocks. What does this really mean? It has a dangerous sound, and that is indeed the common message.... Continue reading
Posted Mar 2, 2017 at A Dash of Insight
A Presidential address to Congress is an important occasion. In the first year of a term, it is called just that. In later years, it will be called the State of the Union Address. The circumstances, ceremony, and protocol are... Continue reading
Posted Feb 27, 2017 at A Dash of Insight
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It is a big week for economic data and the first address to Congress from the new President. Most of the punditry is engaged in a collective head-shake about overbought conditions. Even if the data flow remains strong, pundits will... Continue reading
Posted Feb 26, 2017 at A Dash of Insight
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Sector rotation is a regular media topic, but few really understand it. Stock moves are often described in sector terms – retail, transports, industrials, biotech, etc. You get the drift. There has been a movement to define sectors in terms... Continue reading
Posted Feb 23, 2017 at A Dash of Insight
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We have another holiday-shortened week with little fresh data. While there are some Fed speakers on tap, it is not enough to feed the avaricious punditry. There are two competing themes: the spike in inflation and the continuing assessment of... Continue reading
Posted Feb 18, 2017 at A Dash of Insight
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Pure traders love to buy the dips – and of course sell the rips. Everyone wants to buy low and sell high. Is this part of your strategy? Do you know when and how to make that your plan? Today's... Continue reading
Posted Feb 16, 2017 at A Dash of Insight
Here is the key concept: Abandon that which is not helpful! Background One of my best friends loved "investing" in baseball. He had an opinion about every team and every game. He also had a happy bookie. He called me... Continue reading
Posted Feb 15, 2017 at A Dash of Insight
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A week featuring the Fed Chair's semi-annual Congressional testimony, and daily speeches by most of her Fed colleagues, would normally represent a commanding first choice for the upcoming theme. This time is different. (Yes, I know that you are never... Continue reading
Posted Feb 11, 2017 at A Dash of Insight
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Would you like to know whether your trading is lucky or good? Today's Stock Exchange will help. As a bonus, we have some interesting ideas to explore. [Important Update - Market Open 02/10/17] Holmes gave a "sell" alert on CASY... Continue reading
Posted Feb 9, 2017 at A Dash of Insight
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We have a rather light week for economic data. The biggest reports came last week. Earnings season continues. Everyone is keeping a close eye on President Trump, wondering what might happen next. Meanwhile, stocks are at all-time highs and interest... Continue reading
Posted Feb 4, 2017 at A Dash of Insight
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Our last Stock Exchange (two weeks ago) discussed diverse ideas from our experts, and also explained why I vetoed one of the recommendations. When trading using models, you can link directly to a platform if you do many trades and... Continue reading
Posted Feb 2, 2017 at A Dash of Insight
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On the first Friday of each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Employment Situation Report. The data – especially the payroll employment change – is the subject of much speculation, forecasting, and spinning once it is announced. Most... Continue reading
Posted Feb 1, 2017 at A Dash of Insight
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The new movement to passive investments is a sharp break from the historical quest for excellence. Many articles claim that no one can do better than the market average. If that is true, you should just throw out your investment... Continue reading
Posted Jan 25, 2017 at A Dash of Insight
There is a lot of recent buzz about active management – basically showing that excellence is difficult to achieve. The conclusion is popular, especially among those who have no aspiration to beat average. I cannot do this in a single... Continue reading
Posted Jan 24, 2017 at A Dash of Insight
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We have a normal calendar for economic data. There will be important news will come from corporate earnings reports. Since this earnings season is part of an inflection point – the end of the earnings recession-- it is special. That... Continue reading
Posted Jan 21, 2017 at A Dash of Insight
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Last week's Stock Exchange illustrated how human traders could call upon models as "consultants," effectively creating their own trading room. If you missed the post, please check it out. This week the gang is short on fresh ideas --- and... Continue reading
Posted Jan 19, 2017 at A Dash of Insight
Peter Lazaroff's series has interesting questions for some of the top investment bloggers. It is getting good attention. I am enjoying it, and I'm sure others are as well. The comments from the heavy-hitters on his list are all very... Continue reading
Posted Jan 18, 2017 at A Dash of Insight
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We have a light calendar for economic data and a short week of trading. The biggest news will come from corporate earnings reports. Some financial stocks reported on Friday, but this is the first big week for Q416. Earnings season... Continue reading
Posted Jan 14, 2017 at A Dash of Insight
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Last week's Stock Exchange illustrated how different approaches worked to generate varied ideas. If you missed last week, you will find it to be useful background for today's topic. In the last two weeks the market has been relatively quiet.... Continue reading
Posted Jan 12, 2017 at A Dash of Insight
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Each week I try to give special attention to those who do important work, even though it is probably unpopular. These contributors are so important, and their work is so helpful, that we recommend taking another look at the end... Continue reading
Posted Jan 10, 2017 at A Dash of Insight
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We have a reasonable volume of economic data, but few important reports. We are awaiting earnings season. The elephant in the room (sorry – I just couldn't help myself) is the transition to the Trump Administration. Many are tired of... Continue reading
Posted Jan 7, 2017 at A Dash of Insight
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Last week's Stock Exchange was a discussion of how to find new trading ideas. There are always plenty of names floated, but that is more about media than method. If you missed last week because of the holidays, you might... Continue reading
Posted Jan 5, 2017 at A Dash of Insight