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paragonwealth
Paragon Wealth Management is a registered investment firm in Utah.
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Written by Nate White, Chief Investment Officer of Paragon Wealth Management Yes folks, the condition where you actually have to pay someone to hold your money or you get back less than you deposited is now a reality in Europe.... Continue reading
Posted Feb 26, 2015 at Money Managers Live
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The dramatic drop in the price of oil over the last few months is captivating the markets. It seems it is coming down to a giant game of chicken to see who will cry first: Shale producers, unstable oil dependent export countries such as Nigeria, Venezuela, Russia, or other unconventional sources such as deep-water and oil sands projects. A massive supply glut that has been building for the last few years has finally come to a head. On Thanksgiving Day, to the dismay of many OPEC members, the Saudis decided against a production cut and in favor of letting the price fall in order to maintain their market share. They have decided to let the market do the work in taking out the competition. The competition to OPEC from the so called unconventional sources (e.g. shale, deep water, oil sands) is responsible for most of the global production growth over the last few years. There is no way to know where oil prices will bottom. The drop is in a spiral that has tremendous downward pressure in the short-term and trying to call the bottom is nearly impossible. Everyone is producing as fast as they can while they are still alive. This causes inventories to continue to build in the short-term thereby exacerbating the supply situation and causing the price to continue to fall further. Drilled wells are literally “sunk costs” and you might as well keep pumping and getting something for them. However, new wells are discouraged from coming online at these low oil prices. The economic effects are just starting to be felt on the oil producers and it will take at least a few quarters to play out. In the end it is as it has been said, the cure for low prices is low prices. Ultimately it is more of a question of how long rather than how low. Continue reading
Posted Feb 4, 2015 at Money Managers Live
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Written by Dave Young, President & Founder of Paragon Wealth Management Because certain indexes have performed well over the past few years, those who promote passive investing are recommending that you follow the current fad and just buy index funds.... Continue reading
Posted Jan 28, 2015 at Money Managers Live
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From all of us at Paragon, we hope you have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! The Paragon Team Continue reading
Posted Dec 23, 2014 at Money Managers Live
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It looks like we are finally starting to see the consequences of the Fed’s great monetary easing experiment. Getting in was easy – getting out maybe not so much. The fear throughout the Fed’s great adventure was what type of unforeseen consequences could the happen as a result of QE and artificially low interest rates. Now we are starting to find out. Along with others, I have said for some time now that QE has distorted the markets. It has recapitalized the banks, which I believe was the main purpose, but the exceptionally low rates and asset purchases have supported asset prices and distorted credit markets as well. The need for yield has caused massive amounts of money to flow into the corporate bond space. Almost all corporations have been able to borrow with ease. Many projects that otherwise would not have been taken on had rates been more normal have received the green light. Due to lack of robust economic growth much of the borrowed corporate credit has gone into share repurchases rather than being used to expand business. It’s hard to blame the companies though for borrowing as much as they can at these low rates. Continue reading
Posted Dec 12, 2014 at Money Managers Live
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Each year the Young Family and friends donate a fully decorated tree to Primary Childrens Hospital fundraiser called The Festival of Trees. There are over 800 trees Continue reading
Posted Dec 9, 2014 at Money Managers Live
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The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose in October by 0.9% for its ninth consecutive gain. The consensus was for a gain of 0.6%. Eight out of ten components posted improvements with all components strengthening over the last six months. These figures suggest further upside momentum to growth and are consistent with above-trend growth. Continue reading
Posted Nov 21, 2014 at Money Managers Live
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I was recently reminded of how much I disagree with the “Buy and Hold” concept of investing. One of our clients, brought in several stock certificates that she inherited from her family. They were dated from 1902 to 1920. That was a period of time when mining companies were very popular with investors. She asked us to research the current value of the certificates. Her family held several of these certificates for over 100 years. Based on the number of shares and their valuation levels it appeared that some of these stocks had been valuable at one time. Unfortunately, her family had followed the Buy and Hold investment strategy and still continued to hold them. Continue reading
Posted Oct 29, 2014 at Money Managers Live
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The era of QE has been a difficult environment for active managers. The last five years have been a heyday for the passive investor, aided directly and indirectly by the Fed’s Quantitative Easing (QE) programs, stocks and bonds have moved up in an indiscriminate manner. All one had to do was simply show up. Bonds have been directly aided by the trillions the Fed has purchased while equities have indirectly benefitted from the implied “put” or backstop inferred by these Fed actions. The Fed’s actions to keep rates artificially low have created market distortions that have interfered with many of our quantitative indicators. When all equities or bonds generally get rewarded the same regardless of their quality or differences, it’s hard for the skilled manager to outperform. A rising tide of liquidity has lifted all boats making it easy for anyone to navigate in the harbor. But once the tide starts to recede, experience and skill are what matters. We have seen improvement with our models over the last year coinciding with the gradual reduction of QE. As markets return to “normal” we are better able to assess the risk and rewards of certain moves and strategies. We are seeing a number of opportunities develop that haven’t been available for years. Continue reading
Posted Oct 22, 2014 at Money Managers Live
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I encourage you to learn more about investing and planning. It will pay dividends in many ways, and we are here to assist you as you take steps to educate yourself. But I caution you about spending too much time in front of the financial news channels dotting the cable landscape or the many Internet sites that are just a mouse click away. It’s not that they don’t report hard news. They do. But there are times when markets get volatile and the “shrillness meter” hits alarming levels. Continue reading
Posted Oct 15, 2014 at Money Managers Live
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We, along with many others, have been cautious about the bond market for some time. As the sun sets on QE the angst over when the Fed will start to raise rates and by how much is rising. Markets always like to price things in ahead of time and right now it seems the equity market’s recent nervousness could be due in some part to this interest rate uncertainty. The bond market however has not moved much yet. Many, including us, thought that the bonds would have a difficult year as they start to price in the rate increases. Instead, bonds have (so far) have had a good year surprising many. Alas, the inevitable is coming though and the window for bond gains is closing as we creep toward June of next year which is the most accepted time that the rate increases will begin. Any equity market weakness will give bonds more time to put off the reckoning. Continue reading
Posted Sep 26, 2014 at Money Managers Live
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We would like to thank our 225 Participants, our 50 Volunteers and our 26 Sponsors of this years Pioneer Day Raft and Run. We would also like to give a shoutout and express our gratitude to Paragon Wealth Management and the Barbara Barrington Jones Family Foundation for their continued sponsorship. Without this support the Live Your Dream Foundation would not be able to continue its mission of Empowering Single Mothers in their quest for a college education and bettering the lives of their families and our communities. Continue reading
Posted Sep 12, 2014 at Money Managers Live
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Thank you all for coming to Paragon's Client Social Dinner! We all had fun visiting and giving away some great prizes! We hope to see you all again next year! Continue reading
Posted Sep 3, 2014 at Money Managers Live
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We are regularly asked this question. Investors don’t know what to do. They are concerned. Many seem to always be in the wrong place at the wrong time. They missed out on the gains of the past five years and are now concerned they may be investing at the top of the market. It seems like the risk pendulum swings from one extreme to another. In the 1990’s investors did not take enough risk and missed out on amazing returns. By 2000 and 2008 investors finally began to believe that markets only go up. They became aggressive just in time to be devastated by 50% losses and years of bad returns. By 2009, many investors had thrown in the towel. Those investors then missed out on the big gains of the past five years. Continue reading
Posted Aug 19, 2014 at Money Managers Live
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The artificially low interest rates and asset purchases engineered by the Federal Reserve are causing a misallocation of private investment. Investors and savers have been clamoring for anything with yield and it is prompting many people to put their money in horrible investments. This is one of the unintended consequences of Fed’s extraordinary accommodative actions that have been in place for years now. Investors are taking on a lot of risk and illiquidity to generate what are often very low returns. They are sacrificing the returns and liquidity that are so crucially needed for the long-term. There are a lot of bad financial products being sold to investors today that take advantage of investors’ desires to avoid risk and get a “safe” return. Financial companies are always happy to create a product that sells the best in the current environment. The angst from the financial crisis and the desire for yield in this low rate environment are helping many salespeople aggressively push the following bad investments: Continue reading
Posted Aug 7, 2014 at Money Managers Live
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Dear Friends, Since 2010 Paragon Wealth Management has sponsored the “Live Your Dream” scholarships that go to single moms in difficult situations that have a desire to attend college or trade school and better their families future. This year we are excited to again to be part of the Live Your Dream fundraiser, The 2nd Annual Pioneer Day Raft and Run. 100% of the proceeds fund Live Your Dream Scholarships. We would like you, your family and friends to come join us in this exciting event. Each participant will get a Custom Designed Race Medal, 5 Mile Rafting trip down Scenic Provo Canyon, 5K Run from Vivian Park to Canyon Glen Park, Premium Dry Fit Race T-Shirt, bus transportation from Canyon Glen to Race Start and a runners packet full of surprises! Continue reading
Posted Jul 8, 2014 at Money Managers Live
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On June 4, 2014, Paragon Wealth Management was awarded for the 2014 Best of State Award for Investment Advisory Services. The following pictures were taken at the Best of State Gala. Dave Young, President and Founder of Paragon Wealth Management... Continue reading
Posted Jun 20, 2014 at Money Managers Live
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I haven't written a blog post recently because their hasn't been a lot to report on in the past month. We ended 2013 with the Dow Industrials at 16576. The markets held in a very tight range until January 20th. From January 21st to February 3rd the Dow dropped about 1000 points which sounds like a lot but it was only 6%. After the drop, all of the doom and gloom crowd came out and started proclaiming the start of a new bear market. The market responded with a positive snap back rally. Ever since that rally the market has stayed in a relatively tight trading range between 16,000 and 16,400. Continue reading
Posted Mar 27, 2014 at Money Managers Live
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I always tell investors that the market could crash anytime for a variety of reasons and if one is not prepared to endure this then they need to reset their expectations about what investing is. For the past month or two there has been a chart making the rounds that compares the current market with that of 1929. The intent of these comparisons is always that a great calamity is at our doorsteps. I have seen so many of these supposed scary comparisons over the course of my career. With most of the them (such as the current one) the data is manipulated to make some scary comparison in an attempt to get attention. Continue reading
Posted Feb 12, 2014 at Money Managers Live
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It seems that the January effect where stocks usually go up in January is not as consistent as it used to be. Actually, it stopped being consistent after everyone became aware of it. The January effect appears to have moved into December. With the S&P 500 off to its worst start since 2009 many investors are wondering what that means for the future. Obviously, no one knows for certain, but I will give you an update on what our models are telling us now. Continue reading
Posted Jan 30, 2014 at Money Managers Live
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Even though there have been six selloffs this year - the stock market keeps trending up. If this holds, 2013 will go on the record books as a very good year. How is this possible when there are so many things to be concerned about? The stock market is a leading indicator. When the economy is weakening then usually the stock market is weak before the economic indicators become weak. Conversely, the stock market will usually strengthen before those same economic indicators get stronger. Continue reading
Posted Dec 11, 2013 at Money Managers Live
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At this time of year, here at Paragon Wealth Management, we like to pause and reflect on all the many reasons to give thanks. We are truly grateful for our clients (and that the stock market is up). From all of us at Paragon, we wish you a happy and safe Thanksgiving! Continue reading
Posted Nov 27, 2013 at Money Managers Live
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The confirmation process for Janet Yellen as the new Fed chair begins today. Although the questioning may get a bit feisty due to the current partisan atmosphere in Washington she is expected to be confirmed. The markets will be watching closely for hints and clues as to her thinking on all things QE. Some short-term consensus has been building that the Fed might start to taper in December rather than in 2014 due to the recent stronger jobs report and economic data. That has caused the market to pause at these levels while trying to decipher what the Fed might do. The market always tries to move ahead of the Fed. The key indicator that we are watching is the 10 year bond yield. The closer it gets to 3% the more cautious we become. At the same time there are a lot of people and managers trying to play catch up at this time of year which puts upward pressure on equities. The overall momentum of the markets is still up for now. We are definitely more cautious at these levels and holding some cash, but the Fed, as it has done so many times, could still easily call the markets bluff and delay the “taper” continuing to send stocks higher. Continue reading
Posted Nov 14, 2013 at Money Managers Live
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We will have to see if the “Tea Party” politicians will learn from their humiliating defeat on the budget debacle and play smarter politics going forward. I think they have unfortunately hurt their cause and set it back. Compromise is how things get done in Washington and unless you control the commanding heights (i.e. Presidency and both houses of Congress) you need to bide your time and play better defense. I think the Republican caucus needs a bit of Tennyson recitation in the form the “The Charge of the Light Brigade” where he so eloquently described the futility of a British Light Cavalry Brigade in 1854 charging a well-prepared Russian artillery battery with excellent fields of fire resulting in high casualties and no gains. The markets once again called Congress’ bluff with not much of a sell-off and are now poised to go on to new highs. The scary part of this political game is that the politicians will take this as a cue to keep their antics going and will eventually send us off the cliff if they keep this game up. I keep hoping these budget escapades will finally cause some focus to be made to the long-term insolvency problems the country faces but with each delay the problem only grows. It’s a classic case of avoiding pain and being unable to delay gratification. We can spend more than we make right now because our creditors allow it and as the world’s reserve currency we get a pass. But this can and will change at some point if we fail to act. Continue reading
Posted Oct 17, 2013 at Money Managers Live
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It is no wonder that investors are concerned about the government shutdown. Here is an excerpt from today's press release from the U.S. Treasury Department. Keep in mind the Treasury is supposed to report the facts and not play partisan political games. In a Press Release posted on the U.S. Treasury website today they stated: WASHINGTON - The U.S. Department of the Treasury released a report today on the potential macroeconomic effects of debt ceiling brinksmanship. The report states that a default would be unprecedented and has the potential to be catastrophic: credit markets could freeze, the value of the dollar could plummet, and U.S. interest rates could skyrocket, potentially resulting in a financial crisis and recession that could echo the events of 2008 or worse. This introduction was followed by two pages of extreme doom and gloom. Continue reading
Posted Oct 3, 2013 at Money Managers Live