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Patrick Stuart
Central Pennsylvania
I'm a total poll geek. I try to leave my political biases aside when I post.
Recent Activity
In the specific, Arizonans may of course be against the discrimination bill. However, please also ask this: do you think that a religious photographer should be allowed not to photograph a gay wedding? Much like the anti-abortion bill in Texas, or the national health care law, I suspect that people's lack of support may be for the specifics of this case, not for the concept as a whole.
Also a "long time Republican"/conservative fan of PPP here. I ask if you would give me the courtesy of glancing at a quick note I wrote up. Here's the thing: I've seen you guys do polling in the past where the voters expressed one preference, and yet indicated that they would vote contrary to the way they believed. An obvious example is SSM. A more pertinent example is Michigan, where laws against compulsory union dues were quite popular to start, or Texas where late-term abortion laws are quite popular, and yet voter approval of the politicians is murky at best. In all of the above cases, you released the poll. In this case, you did not release it. If I may suggest: ask yourselves why did you neglected to release it this time, but not in others. I think you might find that, despite your very best intentions, you were defeated by your own political bias. Not because you were hard-headed, but because that's just how sociology works sometimes. By hanging out in certain crowds, reading certain publications, etc., a worldview may seem more plausible to us by means of exposure. I think this is what sunk your ship this time, and why Silver rightly criticized your operation. Getting smacked down by Nate Silver is the polling equivalent of getting told off by Michael Jordan. He's the big guy in town. But don't let it get to you - your firm isn't going to fold or even take a large hit. Admit that you made a mistake (to yourself if noone else), and continue providing quality polls to us, John Q. Public.
Does anyone remember how Scott Walker's numbers were terrible to begin with, but picked up with time? I suspect that Snyder's and the legislation's popularity (which are now inseparable) will depend entirely on how well Republicans are able to articulate their talking points. If they do well, as they did in Wisconsin, and frame it as a matter of personal freedom, he will do fine - if only because right to work legislation is usually popular where polled. If, however, they let the Democrats control the talking points with their skullduggery, he will fail. Anyway, the next time you hear some liberal go on about how Republicans are controlled by right wing fanatics, remember it's the Democrats who threw a temper tantrum when they no longer had the right to force workers to pay for Obama's reelection campaign.
I wish the question "do you believe in UFOs" had been worded better. A UFO, in the strictest definition, is any unidentified flying object, and unquestionably exists. On the other end of the spectrum, assuming the question is about aliens, it never asks where they might exist. Asking if aliens might exist somewhere in the universe is a wholly different animal than asking if they visit earth and stick instruments into the private parts of humans. Finally, I will assume that most of those polled understood the question to mean neither of what I mentioned above. Hopefully this will dampen the old canard that, by very nature of being conservative, one is necessarily more prone to scientific quackery than liberals (this study helps show that both sides have their loonies).
Toggle Commented Jun 19, 2012 on Nevada Miscellany at Public Policy Polling
Abortion (this one never gets polled) - pro-life/pro-choice; legal/legal in most cases/illegal in most cases/illegal except for life of mother? Missouri - do you consider your state as part of the South? Michigan - which baseball/football team do you root for? (Only do this one if it's broken down by region or area code)
Bah. If only this survey had been a week later, we could have had you poll what you think of the AG possibly removing Obama from the ballot (my guess is it would poll badly, including among Republicans). And, of course, favorability ratings for the AG as a result. Does Arizona directly elect AGs?
With all due respect, I know you're based out of North Carolina, but I feel like you do too much polling there. Every few weeks we get to see an update of North Carolina, even though we already have a good idea of where it is based off previous polls by you guys there. Maybe you could branch out a bit and do other states instead when you would be doing North Carolina?
Oh, the basketball coach. My fault.
Toggle Commented Apr 3, 2012 on Nebraska Miscellany at Public Policy Polling
I don't see anything about sports in this post. Yet it was categorized under sports.
Toggle Commented Apr 3, 2012 on Nebraska Miscellany at Public Policy Polling
New Mexico: sports team favorites, broken down by area code or region. New Mexico: religious following (Catholic, Protestant, none of the above), and if possible, number of times per month for attending church. Would be interesting to see how devotion corresponds to race (namely, Latino) and views on gay marriage. Virginia: religious following (same as above, but including Judaism). Are Jews remaining faithful to Obama and Democrats? Both states: gay marriage, broken down by race and religion.
I guess this confirms the suspicion that many of us have already accepted: that the old confederate crowd has about universally gone from Democratic to Republican. Also, count me as sad that so many Republicans in the state are against interracial marriage (seriously, Mississippi?) - and young people more than old (unless that is statistical noise).
Toggle Commented Nov 19, 2011 on Mississippi Miscellany at Public Policy Polling
By the way, you've asked about sports allegiances in Pennsylvania before, so if you ask again, it would be neat if you could break it down by area code or county or region (precisely defined, so we know which part of the state) or something.
As a Pennsylvanian (and a life-long State College resident to boot), I will tell you right now that a) slightly more than half of PA residents will support Paterno's firing and b) none of htose no-name candidates will be within 8 points of Casey, and probably not within 10. The only candidates who might stand a chance are Tom Ridge and that short term governor right before Rendell (watshisname). I would like to see that polled. I would LOVE to see some polling for shale drilling that posited the question in more than one way. Pennsylvanians will not support drilling as a stand alone question but if you pit it against other energy forms or offer to lower taxes with hard numbers with its revenue (e.g., "if it means lowering taxes by $1200 per resident per year"), support will skyrocket. But I'd like to see the support in actual polling numbers. :)
No sports favorites? Aw, I was looking forward to them.
Toggle Commented Oct 21, 2011 on Hawaii Miscellany at Public Policy Polling
(addendum) Oh and I'd love to see the Huntsman v. Obama (as well as Huntsman name recognition). Outside the New York Times, he's had very little press given his experience, IMHO.
Having followed the football maps at http://www.the506.com for several years, I can tell you that Hawaii doesn't even have a pro-team they root for - at least in football. Most people just don't care or care more about college football (you'll notice this in a few other parts of the country, like Las Vegas, Boise, or Nebraska). I'd recommend asking about a wide swath of west coast teams for both sports, including Seattle. Also to include "America's team(s)", e.g., Packers/Cowboys/Steelers and Yankees/Red Sox.
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Oct 13, 2011