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If you imagine 17 Labour Members retiring and 20 MP's defeated it sounds astronomic. There is, I think, a big crossover between retiring and loosing. Whilst everyone (except Kristina) is forecasting a Labour rout it seems possible that Labour will loose 7 seats and the Libs will pick up 6 seats. That would mean NSW would be negotiating with 6 Independents and 1 Green. It is easy to be swept up in media hype, but it comes down to seat by seat. COMMENT: It would be an overal loss of about 30 seats. I very much doubt the election will come down to seat by seat given the state of opinion polls, and if it comes down to seat by seat, most of the sitting Independents in normal coalition seats will have fights on their hands to win re-election.
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Dec 13, 2010