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Richaburton
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Twemoran, Thank you for the tip. Excellent site. Arcticio, I am not offended by your comments, but I believe we may be both misunderstanding each other. I am merely referring to that which many always refer to on this site and that is the fact that despite the overwhelming evidence that we need to act now or the planet will suffer substantially the governments of the world do not. I understand perfectly the politics behind this, as governments act for the people and the masses are currently in 'ignorance is bliss mode'. The economy (short term) is the main worry for most people, so governments act in regard to that. The bigger picture that the climate may ultimately negatively affect the economy is not being considered, as it is not on the public's or therefore governments' radar. I guess all we can do is keep trying to raise awareness and change our lifestyles to reflect these concerns.
Arcticio, That's why I tell everybody I can about this blog and all the data you can find on the Arctic ice melting. Spreading the word and opening everyone's eyes' is the most important thing. I even teach youngsters about it and how they need to think about how they are going to modify their lifestyles. Quiet is the last thing 'I' am, but you have actually hit the nail on the head with your comment "..... and others demand loudly." The problem is that the 'old guard' are too numerous. More people like myself and others on this Blog need to speak out and keep trying to make a difference. Despite all this though it is the governments who need to wake up and until we 'the general public' make them we're screwed. So take your negativity, put downs and dictatorship rubbish and channel it elsewhere. Start putting your efforts into doing something positive about AGW instead of having a go at people who are trying to do the right thing. If you plan on responding to this post with more provocative rubbish you'll be waiting a long time for the reply.
Ice Edge 2012 blog had an interesting post today from Julienne Stroeve: "I have been surprised by the vast expanses of open water that we came upon after entering the ice. The average ice concentration of the last five days has been about 65 percent, with about 36 percent of that ice being first-year ice, 14 percent being multiyear ice and 10 percent being brash ice (small broken ice floes). Air temperatures have been above freezing, even at 82.82N, 15.16E, so that there have been no new ice formation observed the last five days." Remarkable that the weather is still so warm near the pole.
Arctico and Seke Rob. "You get the government you vote for" May I point out that even in a democracy the government I vote for may not get into absolute power and thus I don't necessarily get the government I vote for. Besides, living in the UK I'll comment on the Green Party as an example of a party that might make a difference. Even if the Greens did get in then I doubt it would make a significant difference to the UK let alone the world. The point I was making is that for there to be a significant change the governments of the world need to unite, accept we're going down the wrong route and all agree to make drastic changes to their countries. If it is a united front the people will see the enormity of the challenge we face, and thus be more likely to accept those changes.
Great post as usual Neven. Can't believe these guys aren't trying harder to keep up and be more realistic. Three things I've been giving thought to recently: 1. There was a post about a week ago regarding the DMI Daily Mean Temperatures North of 80 degrees. I have been eagerly watching this graph since and it still shows no sign of the temperature dropping significantly north of 80 degrees. In fact DMI can be thanked for having such a public archive of their graphs going back to 1958. I think I am correct in saying, after having looked through the historic data and compared it to all previous years, that no other year has held temperatures as high this late in the year North of 80 degrees. Following the last post on this topic a number of comments were given regarding why 2012 has such anomalously high temperatures in the 'high arctic'. There were suggestions regarding the open water, which I believe is the most likely cause. These were then related to the fact that the remaining pack ice is now small enough to act more like an island than a continent. This means 'on shore' breezes i.e. blowing from the sea into the ice pack are holding up temperatures over the entire pack as it is now so small. 2. Bruce Worden has already mentioned the insolation changes will have a massive and largely unknown impact on future shrinkage of the pack. The increased absorbtion of solar energy due to the lack of the albedo effect over the open water (used to be sea ice) is now causing the temperatures to remain higher later in the year. It's interesting that the temperature is now holding at about -2 deg C (roughly the freezing temperature of ice). This could mean the latent heat of freezing is being given off holding up temperatures, so a drop is imminent. In the past this hasn't been an observable plateau and the temperature has just plummeted, probably due to the ice pack acting in a more 'continental' fashion in previous years due to the larger area covered by ice. This means it could just be coincidence especially as the graph covers such a large area encompassing open water (relatively warm) and ice (below freezing). Food for thought though. 3. Neven, I looked at the Ice edge 2012 Blog by Julienne Stroeve. It's interesting to note the post from the field on September 11th. I quote, "According to the satellite data, we should have already reached nearly 100 percent ice concentration, yet at 83N, the ice concentration remains less than 40 percent." Could the ice area/extent actually be being underestimated by the satellites? Gotta love this season due to the interesting changes from the norm, but I have to keep reminding myself that everything I'm witness to is actually a sad side effect of our pollution and the pig ignorance of our governments. They are the only ones who can get together and make an appreciable difference!
A couple of days ago there was a post regarding another cyclone heading for the central Arctic Ocean, along with a graphic showing the pressure chart 10 days out. Surely this would be very interesting and potentially worrying for the remaining weak ice. This is roughly only a week away now. Is there any more clarity on if this cyclone will definitely strike? In addition, I've been tracking lows across the Atlantic and in particular the remnants of the tropical cyclones that have primarily been what is termed as 'fish hurricanes' recently; that is hurricanes that stay at sea. Due to this they are maintaining a great deal of energy as they cross the Atlantic and it looks like one or two are heading up past Iceland into the Arctic. Is it possible one of the these is the this 'next' Arctic cyclone.
Robertscribbler thank you for your comment on the leads. It is true that they are common. Just wondered if anyone knew if things had worstened. However, as you have shown from the satellite data from 12 years ago....things look more or less similar from above. Having read every post on here I am truly fascinated. There is definitely something interesting going on with the temperatures during these very early stages of the refreeze process. I do like the suggestions that the ice pack has shrunk so much that the climate is becoming more like that of an island and that the temperature near the pole is being moderated by the on shore 'breezes', so to speak. I also am interested by the suggestion that the mixing of the ocean this season and the vast melting on the Barents Sea edge of the ice pack has lead to an extension of the North Atlantic Drift into the Arctic Ocean. Both of these things will no doubt be overcome this winter season, as I don't yet think we have quite reached the stage where they are going to have enough potency to dominate the Winter freeze up. However, i do think we have to look at what is currently happening and realise it is a window on our future Winter arctic. The way the data looks now could be what March looks like in 2025! unbelievably Frightening!
Toggle Commented Sep 12, 2012 on Minimum open thread at Arctic Sea Ice
I'm with you Dan P., but do you think a rounded minimum or a flat bottomed prolonged minimum at this point is partly down to wind/weather patterns still? I realise this season has been the one to buck the trend in terms of being affected by weather. However, at this late stage when the temperatures are just below freezing incursions of warm air, due to weather patterns, are going to be the deciding factor. Just a thought.
Toggle Commented Sep 10, 2012 on Minimum open thread at Arctic Sea Ice
Chris R "That the CT area loss is continuing makes me think the central polar area is not safe, and earlier/faster rate of melt is all we need now for a seasonally sea ice free state." I agree with you. I posted yesterday saying, "I believe one of the key months will be June (the month of maximum insolation for the high Arctic); as once it is more or less ice free in this month the seas will be getting so warm I don't think a re-freeze will be possible to any significant extent." Much like you I don't think we need to be looking at the minimum but how early the melting season starts/how precipitous the fall is. Should ice thin enough and get salty enough due to storms then it will melt faster. This will mean the pack will melt out at a faster rate and crucially expose the sea to the most intense sunlight in June. Once this happens i think it will be "Hasta la vista" winter ice.
Toggle Commented Sep 10, 2012 on Minimum open thread at Arctic Sea Ice
Sorry for the double post, but just doing my evening rounds of the data, graphs satellite images etc. Take a look at tile r03c03 on the NASA 1km satellite images. The remaining pack has massive leads all over it. It must be so weak a big storm would have a really bad effect on it right now. For those without the link: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2012252.terra.1km
Toggle Commented Sep 9, 2012 on Minimum open thread at Arctic Sea Ice
It is highly unlikely, but if 2012 is followed by two years where melt increases by the same amount as we have on 2011's minimum then we'll be more or less ice free in summer 2014. This is unlikely as a BIG melt increase, as we have seen this year, last came about 5 years ago in 2007. However, I propose that the frequency of BIG melts will increase or even become the norm (a true 'death spiral' to no ice) We know that due to the large amount of melting over the last 5 years the ice is thinner, has far less coverage and seas are warmer. This is topped off by additional agitation of the sea by the increased frequency and magnitude of storms, which leads to increased salinity in the Arctic Ocean. I agree with Nightvid Cole that the large amount of first year 'salty' ice next season will be arguably weaker, quicker to melt and thus make the chances of another record melt next year more likely. Neven is constantly reminding us that the weather no longer seems to be an overriding factor due to the weakness of the remaining ice, so could we really be ice free by 2014? If we do get to an ice free state, sorry when we get to an ice free state in summer; I believe it will have an immediate and devastating effect on the winter recovery that year. In fact this devastation for winter ice may start sooner (keep your eye on Winter 2012-13). I believe one of the key months will be June (the month of maximum insolation for the high Arctic); as once it is more or less ice free in this month the seas will be getting so warm I don't think a re-freeze will be possible to any significant extent. So interesting, yet so worrying!
Toggle Commented Sep 9, 2012 on Minimum open thread at Arctic Sea Ice
This is my first post after years of reading the information on this site. First of all thank you to Neven and the regulars who post on here. I read all the discussions with interest. I am a qualified Scientist but I am interested in the term insolation that is often used here. What to people mean by insolation in terms of ice melt? Also, I find the shift in weather patterns fascinating. Meteorology is my first love and I'm keen to know what the fellow followers believe the effect on weather patterns will be this coming winter, particularly over Europe. Will the Greenland High still play a big part into the winter, or will the re-freeze subdue its effect?
Toggle Commented Sep 8, 2012 on Signs of Arctic climate change at Arctic Sea Ice
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Sep 8, 2012