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rjs
denizen of a rural NE Ohio swamp
unencumbered by education, affiliations, beliefs or agenda; im not advocating anything
Recent Activity
What should Democrats do to win the votes of the white working class? speaking as someone raised in a white working class family in northeastern Ohio and still living here, they could have nominated Sanders and won Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and PA, where exit polling shows the white working class switched from Obama to Trump in every county... of course, Krugman & the rest of the neoliberals were having none of that...
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most of us have learned not to feed the trolls..
Toggle Commented Nov 24, 2016 on Links for 11-24-16 at Economist's View
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you must stop conflating opposition to Obama's corporate protectionist trade deals with Trumpism or Trumpism really will prevail...
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for the most part, the aberrant jump in soybean exports was offset by a corresponding decrease in soybean inventories, thus having little net effect on GDP. we did have a record crop, so "goods and services produced by the US economy" did thereby increase, but not at a 1% of GDP rate as some have alleged...
Toggle Commented Nov 11, 2016 on Links for 11-11-16 at Economist's View
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yep. all i get after voting is "thanks for taking this survey" they must be collecting cookies, too, cause even reloading the page doesn't bring it back...
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ok, anne, these two graphs illustrate what this whole hullabaloo has been about...graph 88RA is what Appelbaum cited, what Krugman wonkishly followed on, and what i disagreed with, because all it shows is that the value of trade went down, largely because of falling prices for commodities...graph 88cJ is adjusted for the changes in price of traded goods and services, and will generate the numbers cited by Dean Baker, which shows that 'real' trade, the QUANTITY of goods and services exported and imported, is still going up...
Toggle Commented Nov 2, 2016 on Links for 11-01-16 at Economist's View
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i have an old FRED GDP graph that has both real metrics on it which has since been botched by the FRED redesign, but the FRED datasets i used back then for real exports and imports are EXPGSC96 and IMPGSC96 from the BEA, adjusting nominal current dollar figures for price changes chained to 2009 dollars...those show that real exports have been down irregularly in several quarters over the past two years, but real imports have invariably been up, except for a small downtick in the first quarter of this year...
Toggle Commented Nov 1, 2016 on Links for 11-01-16 at Economist's View
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ok, anne, you had me confused for a sec, but now i see what you did...thats the graph for net exports which is exports minus imports..notice the little minus signs on the sidebar? thats data from table 3 line 45 of the GDP report: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2016/pdf/gdp3q16_adv.pdf what you want is graphs for lines 46 and line 49 of the same table, then a graph that adds them together, to give you total real trade... that should give you the same figures Dean Baker cites..
Toggle Commented Nov 1, 2016 on Links for 11-01-16 at Economist's View
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for anyone who might have noted that my figures on real trade that i posted yesterday were different than those shown by dean baker today; mine were of just trade in goods, dean included services. otherwise, the point he makes is the same...
Toggle Commented Nov 1, 2016 on Links for 11-01-16 at Economist's View
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geez, this has been going on all year... Applebaum at the NYT says: "The total value of American imports and exports fell by more than $200 billion last year." there are a lot of metrics that were down YOY in dollars, leading to forecasts of recession from the likes of Zero Hedge...but ya gotta remember that the prices of oil, of ores, of grains and of many other commodities traded globally were also down... if you pull up the full trade report from December, Exhibit 10 gives you the inflation adjusted trade figures for 2014 and 2015... http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/2016/pdf/trad1215.pdf real exports were down about $7 billion, but real imports were up about $95 billion... for this year to date, real trade was down, but just by single digit billions.. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf
Toggle Commented Oct 31, 2016 on Links for 10-31-16 at Economist's View
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geez, this has been going on all year... Applebaum at the NYT says: "The total value of American imports and exports fell by more than $200 billion last year." there are a lot of metrics that were down YOY in dollars, leading to forecasts of recession from the likes of Zero Hedge...but ya gotta remember that the prices of oil, of ores, of grains and of many other commodities traded globally were also down... if you pull up the trade report from December, Exhibit 10 gives you the inflation adjusted trade figures for 2014 and 2015... http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/2016/pdf/trad1215.pdf real exports were down about $7 billion, real imports were up about $95 billion... for this year to date, real trade was down, but just by single digit billions.. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf
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Applebaum at the NYT says: "The total value of American imports and exports fell by more than $200 billion last year." there are a lot of metrics that were down YOY in dollars, leading to forecasts of recession from the likes of Zero Hedge...but we have to remember the prices of oil, of ores, of grains and of many other commodities traded globally was also down...adjusted for deflation, real trade was down, but just by single digit billions..
Toggle Commented Oct 31, 2016 on Links for 10-31-16 at Economist's View
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at least you got to see them before they're gone...or vice-versa, depending on which species goes extinct first..
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the sources you cite are from 2000 and 2005...given that RIFA colonies increase at a exponential rate because queen ants can live for seven years and produce 4,500 new queens each year, the total cost from all the damage they do may well have reached $5 billion annually by the time Mark and Abbey got on the case..
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seems there's a lot of ethnic nationalism in these comments criticizing ethnic nationalism..
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it can probably grow by millions if you can find employers willing to employ those with a marijuana possession bust on their record...
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recent imports by country of origin: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbbl_m.htm
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well, the first line is just wrong...we're back to importing about 50% of our oil, with about a third of that from OPEC...in the first half of 2015, we were producing more than 60% of what we used, but our output has dropped by 12% since then...we're also importing a small fraction of our natural gas from canada... as far as prices go, they're set on the NYMEX and the ICE, in new york and london...i wrote about how here: http://focusonfracking.blogspot.com/2016/01/new-low-oil-prices-and-how-theyre-set.html in an article that was cited by oilprice.com and yahoo finance...those who hold the physical commodity have no say because "daily oil trading for just this one oil contract in New York has been more than 100 times the amount of oil we produce daily" and "daily oil trading for just this one contract in New York has typically been for more than twice the quantity of oil that exists anywhere above ground in the entire country" i didn't watch the debate..
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there's one forecast that has it looping out in the Atlantic and heading back to shore a week later...might have to do that evacution thing all over again next week...
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its not my number, its the EPIs...but it seems to be in the ballpark with other estimates; Dean Baker puts the total job loss from expanded trade with Mexico at 600,000 jobs: http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2013/11/24/what-weve-learned-from-nafta/nafta-lowered-wages-as-it-was-supposed-to-do he arrives at that estimate using the swing from the original trade surplus with Mexico to a trade deficit of $50 billion...so using your current $55 billion trade deficit, the job loss would be even greater than Deans estimate...
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the Economic Policy Institute once estimated a loss of 682,900 jobs to Mexico: http://www.epi.org/publication/nafta-legacy-growing-us-trade-deficits-cost-682900-jobs/ at least 8 automakers have opened new plants in Mexico in the last two years...
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last March and even last February wasn't that bad up here, but i've seen the Indians get snowed out in the middle of April, and that's on the lakefront, not in the snowbelt to the east where it's always much worse...
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i couldnt tell you what he said...i watched the debate while i was working on the 'net...but i kept the debate sound off; much more interesting that way..
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Economist Dean Baker responds to the NYT: http://cepr.net/blogs/beat-the-press/nyt-s-public-pension-birtherism
Toggle Commented Sep 26, 2016 on Awful, awful stuff--Part 2 at Newmark's Door
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