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rjs
denizen of a rural NE Ohio swamp
unencumbered by education, affiliations, beliefs or agenda; im not advocating anything
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link on that: http://www.nofrackingway.us/2015/01/24/bill-would-allow-automatic-approval-of-natural-gas-pipelines/
FYI, there was a bill that passed the House last Wednesday which would expedite the automatic approval of all natural gas pipelines that FERC had not approved within a year of their proposal.... the bill passed by a 253 to 169 margin, and it seems a similar bill could easily pass the Republican controlled Senate...
that looks somewhat like my blog's pageview stats...
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just to let you know that my estimate of the PCE contribution to 4th quarter GDP just blew up in my face, anne...December retail sales were down 0.9%, and November's were revised from up 0.7% to up just 0.4%...although we can't estimate the impact on real PCE until we get the CPI on Friday, it seems certain that the QoQ change in real PCE will be much lower than anyone guessed..
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that would be my guess, too...but OPEC, and especially the Saudis, sure seem determined to put North American producers out of business...
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trouble is, the tar sands are shutting down; costs of extraction are between $85 and $105; terminal prices for West Canada Select (heavy) crude oil were below $35 per barrel all last week...Norwegian oil giant Statoil, Shell, the French oil giant Total, and SunCor of Canada all cancelled their tar sands projects...even China's CNPC International pulled out of the oil sands and withdrew its support for Enbridge's Gateway project...with current tar sands production already flowing into the US through the Alberta Clipper pipeline to Wisconsin and the Flanigan South pipeline through Illinois & points south, Keystone is redundant; there wont be a spill if it carries no oil..
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supporting links for the above here: http://focusonfracking.blogspot.com/2015/01/updates-on-keystone-rig-counts-oil-gas.html
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even if Obama's veto is overridden, it's not certain or even likely that the pipeline would be built anymore...as we pointed out in November, the Canadian Energy Research Institute estimated that oil-sands projects need a price of $85 a barrel to be profitable in the current cheapest (in situ) method, and that new mines will require $105 a barrel oil to be profitable; other estimates of costs for tar sand extraction are similar...terminal prices for West Canada Select (heavy) crude oil have been below $35 per barrel all week, and Canadian projects are shutting down even faster than those in the US, and some of that started even before prices fell; Norwegian oil giant Statoil pulled out of their tar sands project in September...in the past year, Shell, the French oil giant Total, and SunCor of Canada all cancelled their tar sands projects...even China's CNPC International pulled out of the oil sands and withdrew its support for Enbridge's Gateway project to deliver tar sands oil to the west coast...and with current tar sands production already flowing into the US through the Alberta Clipper pipeline to Wisconsin and the Flanigan South pipeline through Illinois & points south, there may not be enough additional tar sands output to justify construction of another redundant pipeline...so if approval of the pipeline from the US is forthcoming, and there is no tar sands oil to be shipped, it now seems quite likely that TransCanada would either delay or cancel the Keystone XL project altogether...
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agree. November's 0.7% PCE increase surprised me...
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it's possible he's referring to just November, anne: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=215350 when i wrote about that report, i computed that we were heading for an annualized increase of approximately 4.2% in 4th quarter PCE, even if December PCE were unchanged: https://www.google.com/search?q=(11112.6333+%2F+10999.5667)+%5E+4+%3D&sourceid=ie7&rls=com.microsoft:en-us:IE-ContextMenu&ie=&oe=&rlz=1I7ADFA_enUS372&gws_rd=ssl that would be the largest PCE increase of the recovery, & by itself would give us a 3% increase in GDP...
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Dave, i've been as screwed up as you by what's been happening with oil, such that i feel everything i once knew is wrong...i would have never believed i'd see oil under $80, much less under $50... but i've been chasing down that Zero Hedge chart on GDP since it appeared; they truely punked their readers with that post...real health care outlays were just a tenth of the 3rd quarter GDP increase and less than half of the upward revision….they actually increased at a real rate of 4.6%, so health care outlays were actually a small drag on the overall quarterly increase…here's my breakdown of real personal consumption expenditures, the largest component of GDP... PCE were revised to show growth at a 3.2% annual rate rather than the 2.2% growth rate reported last month, and hence they contributed 2.21% to the quarter's growth rate, not the 1.51% previously estimated...real consumption of durable goods grew at a 9.2% rate, revised from the 8.7% growth rate reported in the second estimate, and added .67% to the final GDP figure; major contributors to that were a 15.7% real growth rate in consumption of recreational goods and vehicles and a 11.2% real growth rate in motor vehicle and parts consumption, while real consumption of furnishings and durable household equipment rose slightly and consumption of other durable goods fell, even as all durables consumption benefited from a negative 2.1% deflator...meanwhile, real personal consumption of non-durable goods rose at a 2.5% rate and added 0.39% to GDP, revised from the previous estimate of a 2.2% growth rate, even though inflation adjusted outlays for food and beverages, clothing, and energy goods were virtually unchanged....in addition, real consumption of services grew at an 2.5% rate and added 1.15% to the quarter's growth, revised from the 1.2% growth rate and 0.53% addition reported in the second estimate last month, as real consumption of financial services and insurance grew at a 7.0% annual rate, real consumption of food and lodging services grew at a 4.9% rate, and real outlays for health care services rose at a 4.6% rate, offsetting a small decrease in real outlays for housing and utilities and while outlays for recreation and other services were flat.. as of the 2nd GDP estimate, health care contributed little..Zero Hedge deliberately posted a chart showing just the revisions to personal consumption between the 2nd estimate and the 3rd one, such that 3rd quarter GDP appeared to be all about health care, which was the way they wrote about it...
an interesting place to start...and i have to agree, it's something i've understood since Vietnam: we are all culpable for the actions of our country's government...when a Pakistani family is blown apart by a drone fired Hellfire missile, we are as guilty of the atrocity as if we pulled the trigger ourselves... it's part of our karma...the troubles we face today are the result of our failures in the past, just as the troubles we'll face tomorrow will be due to our failures today
Toggle Commented Jan 7, 2015 on I Cite is 10 at I cite
i'm guessing you're involved in the resistance to this, Jodi, just based on the number of posts you've had on it... similarly, i became involved in the opposition to exploitation in Ohio almost three years ago, & started doing a weekly newsletter for our county google group two years back...with the onset of the price war between OPEC & US frackers, i subsequently turned that into a blog, with somewhat of an economic slant.. maybe you can find something here useful: http://focusonfracking.blogspot.com/
Toggle Commented Dec 29, 2014 on Gas storage facility questioned at I cite
i tried to paste it here & it didnt take...if you want to see what it looks like, copy & paste the first part of her post into a draft that has a view html option, and switch to that...
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since i dont use twitter i wouldnt know how to embed those tweets, but looking at the html in Jodi's post i dont see any code for a specific tweet, like you'd have when embedding a video...she appears to be taking something she's already stored in a twitter sandbox...ie, the html code for the first two tweet she used appears to be identical:
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i've often argued for full cylce accounting of the carbon footprint for so-called green technologies...what i'd like to see, for a solar installation in the desert for instance, is the fossil fuel energy costs of mining bauxite and other ores needed with diesel powered equipment, the coal based costs of manufacturing that equipment, the fossil fuel energy cost of smelting the metals, glass, and steel making, the coal based cost of manufacturing the solar equipment, the fossil fuel energy costs of transporting that equipment to the site, and then the additional fossil fuel energy costs of building a new energy grid to connect those new installations to the current grid...
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thats true for consumer goods they import, and ultimately for manufactured goods that are largely processed from imports, but for most of the basics Russia is fairly self-sufficient...
Toggle Commented Dec 16, 2014 on Links for 12-16-14 at Economist's View
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since the Russian currency is down more than the price of oil, the price of oil has gone up in Russia, and hence the domestic budget will not be impacted by lower oil revenues...
Toggle Commented Dec 16, 2014 on Links for 12-16-14 at Economist's View
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Van Gogh was the first artist i was really in to, so i know starry night well, and you're right, there's an uncanny similarity... hard to say if i'd have noticed it if you hadn't included it in your post title, however...
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curious as to when that statue was written, and if the dollar limitations are applicable for today... ie, "The following personal property, owned by the debtor, is exempt: (c) The debtor's interest, not to exceed $2,400 in value, in any one motor vehicle; i mean $2400 wont get you very much car...
i wouldn't say my question made no sense...my observation and question may have been rhetorical or tangential to your observations, but it certainly made sense in the context of whether production would decline or not...most of the companies involved in fracking are small independents; the major vertically integrated majors are underrepresented...there's very little equity; most fund their operations through a combination of lines of credit, cash flow, and junk debt...with falling prices, lines of credit will dry up, cash flow will evaporate and the interest on any new junk debt be that much higher...for instance, the Caa1 rated bonds for former Chesapeake CEO Aubrey McClendon's new company, American Energy Partners, fell 20% since they were issued in July...but because depletion rates on fracked wells are 80 to 90 percent over the first two years, they can't cut back and wait for better prices...to make their interest payments, they have to maintain cash flow, & to do that, they have to keep drilling...
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they're overleveraged based on oil prices that were over $100 during most of the time they were borrowing...so what does $80 oil do to their ability to roll over their debt?
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welcome back, Linda, and sorry about your loss... as someone who went through a basement flood two years ago, a large tree on the roof last year, & failure of my bathroom plumbing this year, i can understand how those travails weighed on you.. you're still on all my RSS readers from years ago, so i'll be reading whatever you write...
Toggle Commented Oct 16, 2014 on Return to Blogging at ataxingmatter
ha! this'll show him not to take the spot of an enr.econ blogger!
Toggle Commented Sep 25, 2014 on Local foodies can't park at Environmental Economics
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errata: the carbon footprint of hydro is 4 gCO2/kWh
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