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rjs
denizen of a rural NE Ohio swamp
unencumbered by education, affiliations, beliefs or agenda; im not advocating anything
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the first version would have been ok with a comma after –0.057 (not that i understand either)
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after 8 years there oughtta be used copies around that someone wants to get rid of...and if there aint, that should tell you something too..
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that was presumably at a time when wealth would buy a larger number of partners...it's not likely that Jamie Dimon or Llyod Blankfien will have a disproportunately larger number of offspring than any one else today, is it?
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on the post “U.S. oil production still surging” by Jim Hamilton at Econbrowser, i asked the question: if oil inventories are at a record high 444.4 million barrels, up 22.2% from the same period a year ago, as your EIA graph shows, then why did we continue to import 7.4 million barrels a day during the last week of February, 89,000 barrels a day more than we imported during the previous week? then i answered it here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/03/09/1369526/-rig-counts-for-February-and-the-week-just-ended-and-what-are-we-gonna-do-with-all-this-oil in a word, contango…
Toggle Commented Mar 9, 2015 on Links for 03-09-15 at Economist's View
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[ The question would be, "why?" I have no idea why this centralizing should increase regulatory efficiency and would want a careful justification. ] the NY Fed is considered by most observers i've read to be captive of Wall Street... ok, that's not very careful, but that's it in a nutshell
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thanks for the cite, Jodi...once i saw it was worse than even i expected, i was just driven to dig it all out...
on Saturday, i dug into the EIA data and found that our refined products exports had more than doubled since fracking started, and that the increase in exports was on barrel basis 60% of the total increase in US oil production over the period...since a lot of that oil is coming to east coast refineries by train, i tied that to government forecasts that we'd see an average of ten derailment bombs a year over the next two decades, and that 200 fatalities were likely when one of them eventually derails in a populated area...with up to 80 unit trains a week from the Bakken, Philidelphia looks like a likely target: http://focusonfracking.blogspot.com/2015/03/60-of-new-us-oil-output-is-being.html
(2) your math seems alright but i'm not sure all that river traffic uses the locks ie, "the equivalent of 51 million truckloads of goods move by river each year." we also have to take the corps of engineers word for it that they need $13 billion
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we had over 10 inches Sunday and as far as i know all Monday activities went on without a hitch...
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if higher gas taxes are meant to reduce future global warming, does that mean the current cuts in gasoline prices will increase future global warming? (SUV and RV sales are already booming, btw)
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an excellent pair of graphs you put together there...
Toggle Commented Jan 30, 2015 on Links for 01-30-15 at Economist's View
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estimates from the American Petroleum Institute are suspect, anyhow...their estimate that it would generate nearly 280,000 jobs in particular... total US employment in gas and oil extraction as of December was just 216,000: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm
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link on that: http://www.nofrackingway.us/2015/01/24/bill-would-allow-automatic-approval-of-natural-gas-pipelines/
FYI, there was a bill that passed the House last Wednesday which would expedite the automatic approval of all natural gas pipelines that FERC had not approved within a year of their proposal.... the bill passed by a 253 to 169 margin, and it seems a similar bill could easily pass the Republican controlled Senate...
that looks somewhat like my blog's pageview stats...
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just to let you know that my estimate of the PCE contribution to 4th quarter GDP just blew up in my face, anne...December retail sales were down 0.9%, and November's were revised from up 0.7% to up just 0.4%...although we can't estimate the impact on real PCE until we get the CPI on Friday, it seems certain that the QoQ change in real PCE will be much lower than anyone guessed..
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that would be my guess, too...but OPEC, and especially the Saudis, sure seem determined to put North American producers out of business...
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trouble is, the tar sands are shutting down; costs of extraction are between $85 and $105; terminal prices for West Canada Select (heavy) crude oil were below $35 per barrel all last week...Norwegian oil giant Statoil, Shell, the French oil giant Total, and SunCor of Canada all cancelled their tar sands projects...even China's CNPC International pulled out of the oil sands and withdrew its support for Enbridge's Gateway project...with current tar sands production already flowing into the US through the Alberta Clipper pipeline to Wisconsin and the Flanigan South pipeline through Illinois & points south, Keystone is redundant; there wont be a spill if it carries no oil..
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supporting links for the above here: http://focusonfracking.blogspot.com/2015/01/updates-on-keystone-rig-counts-oil-gas.html
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even if Obama's veto is overridden, it's not certain or even likely that the pipeline would be built anymore...as we pointed out in November, the Canadian Energy Research Institute estimated that oil-sands projects need a price of $85 a barrel to be profitable in the current cheapest (in situ) method, and that new mines will require $105 a barrel oil to be profitable; other estimates of costs for tar sand extraction are similar...terminal prices for West Canada Select (heavy) crude oil have been below $35 per barrel all week, and Canadian projects are shutting down even faster than those in the US, and some of that started even before prices fell; Norwegian oil giant Statoil pulled out of their tar sands project in September...in the past year, Shell, the French oil giant Total, and SunCor of Canada all cancelled their tar sands projects...even China's CNPC International pulled out of the oil sands and withdrew its support for Enbridge's Gateway project to deliver tar sands oil to the west coast...and with current tar sands production already flowing into the US through the Alberta Clipper pipeline to Wisconsin and the Flanigan South pipeline through Illinois & points south, there may not be enough additional tar sands output to justify construction of another redundant pipeline...so if approval of the pipeline from the US is forthcoming, and there is no tar sands oil to be shipped, it now seems quite likely that TransCanada would either delay or cancel the Keystone XL project altogether...
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agree. November's 0.7% PCE increase surprised me...
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it's possible he's referring to just November, anne: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=215350 when i wrote about that report, i computed that we were heading for an annualized increase of approximately 4.2% in 4th quarter PCE, even if December PCE were unchanged: https://www.google.com/search?q=(11112.6333+%2F+10999.5667)+%5E+4+%3D&sourceid=ie7&rls=com.microsoft:en-us:IE-ContextMenu&ie=&oe=&rlz=1I7ADFA_enUS372&gws_rd=ssl that would be the largest PCE increase of the recovery, & by itself would give us a 3% increase in GDP...
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Dave, i've been as screwed up as you by what's been happening with oil, such that i feel everything i once knew is wrong...i would have never believed i'd see oil under $80, much less under $50... but i've been chasing down that Zero Hedge chart on GDP since it appeared; they truely punked their readers with that post...real health care outlays were just a tenth of the 3rd quarter GDP increase and less than half of the upward revision….they actually increased at a real rate of 4.6%, so health care outlays were actually a small drag on the overall quarterly increase…here's my breakdown of real personal consumption expenditures, the largest component of GDP... PCE were revised to show growth at a 3.2% annual rate rather than the 2.2% growth rate reported last month, and hence they contributed 2.21% to the quarter's growth rate, not the 1.51% previously estimated...real consumption of durable goods grew at a 9.2% rate, revised from the 8.7% growth rate reported in the second estimate, and added .67% to the final GDP figure; major contributors to that were a 15.7% real growth rate in consumption of recreational goods and vehicles and a 11.2% real growth rate in motor vehicle and parts consumption, while real consumption of furnishings and durable household equipment rose slightly and consumption of other durable goods fell, even as all durables consumption benefited from a negative 2.1% deflator...meanwhile, real personal consumption of non-durable goods rose at a 2.5% rate and added 0.39% to GDP, revised from the previous estimate of a 2.2% growth rate, even though inflation adjusted outlays for food and beverages, clothing, and energy goods were virtually unchanged....in addition, real consumption of services grew at an 2.5% rate and added 1.15% to the quarter's growth, revised from the 1.2% growth rate and 0.53% addition reported in the second estimate last month, as real consumption of financial services and insurance grew at a 7.0% annual rate, real consumption of food and lodging services grew at a 4.9% rate, and real outlays for health care services rose at a 4.6% rate, offsetting a small decrease in real outlays for housing and utilities and while outlays for recreation and other services were flat.. as of the 2nd GDP estimate, health care contributed little..Zero Hedge deliberately posted a chart showing just the revisions to personal consumption between the 2nd estimate and the 3rd one, such that 3rd quarter GDP appeared to be all about health care, which was the way they wrote about it...
an interesting place to start...and i have to agree, it's something i've understood since Vietnam: we are all culpable for the actions of our country's government...when a Pakistani family is blown apart by a drone fired Hellfire missile, we are as guilty of the atrocity as if we pulled the trigger ourselves... it's part of our karma...the troubles we face today are the result of our failures in the past, just as the troubles we'll face tomorrow will be due to our failures today
Toggle Commented Jan 7, 2015 on I Cite is 10 at I cite