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rjs
denizen of a rural NE Ohio swamp
unencumbered by education, affiliations, beliefs or agenda; im not advocating anything
Recent Activity
since i was curious if the heavy weighting of shelter in the CPI was enough to cause home prices to drive consumer inflation, i made FRED graph showing the shelter index component of the CPI, and all other items in the CPI except shelter: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=185730 with the interactive slider, you can view shorter sections of that complete history.. before 1985, home prices were included in CPI shelter; since the BLS has used "homeowner's equivalent rent" it seems relationship between the two changed sometime just before 1980, but the index itself changed shortly thereafter; hence, i cant say that it shows anything..
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guess i aint the only one who replies to spam with some of my own..
Toggle Commented Jul 15, 2014 on Unsubscribe at Environmental Economics
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95F forecast for U of Oregon tomorrow: http://www.localweather.com/weather/?pands=Eugene%2C+OR&forecast=zandh&x=10&y=4
Toggle Commented Jul 14, 2014 on Event Time vs. Clock Time at Economist's View
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i am not doubting you about that, anne, but i am wondering why, considering that interest rates have such an impact on what most homebuyers ultimately pay... id bet the 30 year mortgage was much less common over that history...
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the question might be asked which is leading which, since the index for shelter is now 32% of the CPI...offhand, i couldnt speak to the historical record, but there have been at least a couple major changes in the housing component of the CPI, including the change from home prices to homeowners equivalent rent, that could also skew the relationship
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roughly 71% of homes are being bought with a mortgage; of those, roughly 80% of those are 30 year mortgages; the effective cost of a home for these buyers is not the contract price, it's the monthly payment...so to that extent, home prices for more than half of home buyers are driven by interest rates (which, btw, tend to move with inflation; maybe shiller was looking at the wrong metric?)..
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wonder if they'll distribute pizza...that's what chevron did when an explosion at one of their wells in PA killed one & caused a major evacuation..
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cost controls have no effect on the change in real (cost adjusted) GDP….the ‘real’ change is a change in units of health care delivered… here's the numbers: current dollar spending on health care last 5 qtrs 1,889.2 1,902.9 1,923.3 1,959.0 1,954.6 ($ billions) chained dollar representation of units of health care delivered last 5 quarters: 1,756.5 1,771.9 1,783.9 1,808.3 1,801.9 so Q1 health care (both nominal and real) just looks like a pullback from earlier elevated levels, much in the same way the excessive change in inventory reversed…
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there's already a plan in place to mix in more pink slime: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-25/solution-record-meat-prices-return-pink-slime
Toggle Commented May 27, 2014 on Daily demand and supply at Environmental Economics
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dean baker link is broken: http://www.cepr.net/index.php/data-bytes/jobs-bytes/jobs-2014-05
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what i want to know is how he climbed the tree with a busted shoulder, when the bear cant climb it with a sore paw?
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noticed that with at least a half a dozen sites...figured it was a typepad problem, didnt realize it was a DDoS attack..
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and just like with the Medicaid expansion, the red states are pushing back: Oklahoma residents who produce their own energy through solar panels or small wind turbines on their property will now be charged an additional fee... http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/04/16/3427392/oklahoma-fee-solar-wind/
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well, maybe you otter explain that to the otters out here who aint figured it out yet...
yeah, i could die waiting for ohio to get warm...
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here you go, Zappa; two posts with major contributions from Dr. Ray Beiersdorfer of the Youngstown State Geology Dept establishing pretty clearly that these quakes were in fact caused by the nearby fracking: http://www.nofrackingway.us/2014/03/10/ohios-first-frackquake/ http://www.nofrackingway.us/2014/03/12/fracking-induced-seismic-events-frackquakes/
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check your google maps; fracked wells: Carbon Limestone Landfill, Lowellville first two earthquake locations: 41.017°N 80.537°W 41.009°N 80.532°W i make both quakes to be maybe a quarter mile away, certainly less than a half mile from the wells, at roughly the same depth as the Utica Shale
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http://geosurvey.ohiodnr.gov/earthquakes-ohioseis/maps-charts-stations/epicenters-map-page-size
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i'm familiar with the faults in the area, i wrote about them in the late 80s; there's the extension of the st lawrence valley rift that cuts along the erie shoreline from niagra to east of cleveland then inland to Anna Ohio, and there's the akron magnetic lineament, which is a SSW trending quake zone from western Astabula to eastern Summit County...Mahoning County, however, had no quakes of record before the injection well quakes of Christmas & New Years eve of 2011... i agree my assertations are all based on circumstantial evidence...but that's all we have to go on right now... here's a map
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here's the specs on the first quake: http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:aNBPvFyG5s0J:earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usc000n691+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us#summary 2nd quake linked below..there were 5 quakes over 2 days in that location..
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my source links below show that this weeks earthquakes were at a depth of 2 km to 2.5 km, exactly the same depth as the utica shale in that part of the state, and almost directly below the Hilcorp Energy well pad in the Carbon Limestone Landfill, where they had fracked 7 wells...ODNR has already said there werent injection wells nearby and they should know; they collect tipping fees on them...
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by the way, just last week, the USGS definitively connected the 5.7 and smaller earthquakes of November 2011 in Oklahoma to injection well disposal of wastewater from oil and gas drilling: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/11/energy-earthquake-oklahoma-idUSL2N0M80SP20140311
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i lived through that earthquake on January 31, 1986, which shut down the nearby Perry nuclear plant, & also cracked my chimney, costing me over $2000 in repairs... here's the abstracts of two papers from the journal Geology connecting that 1986 quake to nearby brine injection wells, from conventional gas drilling: http://geology.geoscienceworld.org/content/16/8/739.abstract http://bssa.geoscienceworld.org/content/78/1/188.abstract
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Chinese retail sales spending, released at the same time, was 11.8% above a year earlier for the 2 month reporting period in question... that also disappointed Western analysts...
Toggle Commented Mar 14, 2014 on Links for 3-14-14 at Economist's View
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Mian and Sufi are the authors of the China and the Danger of Debt article linked here. theymisstated that industrial productionwas at a 5 year low, rather than the growth rate of it at a 5 year low... sorry for not being clearer...
Toggle Commented Mar 14, 2014 on Links for 3-14-14 at Economist's View
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