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rjs
denizen of a rural NE Ohio swamp
unencumbered by education, affiliations, beliefs or agenda; im not advocating anything
Recent Activity
Macroblog seems to chalk up the drop in the labor force participation rate to monthly flows of youth into and out of it as they pursue their education...i can't buy that; the LFPR is down year over year, obly 1.1 million workers have been added in that period, while those not in the labor force continues to hit new highs... http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm (note the # of workers here are half the jobs added shown by the establishment survey)
Toggle Commented Jun 23, 2016 on Links for 06-23-16 at Economist's View
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someone should tell tim taylor that we dont need the history of the PPI, we need an explanation of how it's constructed in it's current form: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm everyone who writes about it still sticks to the old wholesale goods prices parts...i've yet to see a detailed explanation of the 4 stages of intermediate demand for services, much less monthly coverage of those metrics
Toggle Commented Jun 18, 2016 on Links for 06-18-16 at Economist's View
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i disagree with the premise of Bernstein's article...there is no need to raise taxes to accomplish what he wants (improve our infrastructure, push back on global warming, fight poverty and inequality, and improve health and retirement security)...since we're the issuer of dollars, all that can be accomplished by simply "printing" them...the only limiting factors are resouces and labor...
Toggle Commented Jun 14, 2016 on Links for 06-14-16 at Economist's View
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i sure wouldn't vote for either, but Hillary scares me more than the Donald dowa...
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its not meant to be rational...gut feelings never are...
Toggle Commented Jun 11, 2016 on Links for 06-11-16 at Economist's View
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im not arguing for Trump....this is the worst choice weve had in my lifetime (im 68)....just that im more scared of what Hillary might do, because she takes herself so seriously
Toggle Commented Jun 11, 2016 on Links for 06-11-16 at Economist's View
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Trump is all bullshit, and he will not act on anything he says to get elected...Trump will negotiate after making bombastic threats; Hillary is far more likely to get us into a serious war with the Russians or Chinese because of her personal sense of self-righteousness...
Toggle Commented Jun 11, 2016 on Links for 06-11-16 at Economist's View
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i wouldnt vote for either of them, but, yes, Hillary as president frightens me more than Donald does...
Toggle Commented Jun 11, 2016 on Links for 06-11-16 at Economist's View
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re Trump, Clinton on the environment - most of what Trump said to get the Republican nomination has little to do with what he really thinks...most of what's he's been saying has just been playing to the lowest common denominator of the republican base....for instance, Trump to Obama in 2009: “If We Fail to Act Now … There Will Be Catastrophic and Irreversible Consequences for Humanity and Our Planet” http://ecowatch.com/2016/06/09/trump-climate-action/ (full page ad in the NY Times signed by Trump and all of his adult children)
Toggle Commented Jun 11, 2016 on Links for 06-11-16 at Economist's View
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i can already hear the claims that out of state money is trying to influence the results...
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bullying doesn't work. witness: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/06/wall-street-2016-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-213931
Toggle Commented Jun 2, 2016 on Paul Krugman: Feel the Math at Economist's View
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it's clear that cholesterol levels are a symptom, not a cause...treating the symptom does not allieviate the underlying problem
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i am getting a "video may no longer exist or you dont have permission to view it" message...
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as i commented on the Econbrowser thread, i've long had some disagreements with some of the ways the Atlanta Fed comes up with their GDPNow estimates during the month...to start with, they incorporate the monthly results of the ISM surveys, unweighted diffusion indexes derived from samplings of subjective executive opinion....any correspondence those survey results have with the output of goods and services for the same month is pure chance...in addition, they always update their estimate of GDP on the day of the retail sales release, which tells us nothing about real personal consumption and hence output until we get the release of consumer price index several days later...moreover, they not only ignore the results of the CPI, they also don't incorporate any results from the PPI-FD release or the import-export price index into their estimates...components of the PPI are used to adjust construction, inventories, and other investment for changes in price to give us the real change in output...some months, change in prices is one of the largest factors in the change in GDP...for example, nominal inventories might be reported down 0.5%, but if corresponding producer prices for the same period were down 1.0%, that means real inventories were up 0.5%...someone at the Atlanta Fed need to sit down with the NIPA handbook and see how GDP is really computed...
Toggle Commented May 23, 2016 on Dueling Nowcasts at Economist's View
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though i have his blog on all my feedreaders, i've stopped reading Krugman altogether...but i note that he used to say "The Facts Have A Well-Known Left Wing Bias" and the headline shown above indicates he's moved to the right...
Toggle Commented May 10, 2016 on Links for 05-10-16 at Economist's View
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i've just stopped reading Krugman altogether since he became a full time shill...and i am, btw, subscribed to his posts thru my feedreader...
Toggle Commented Apr 2, 2016 on Links for 04-02-16 at Economist's View
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i wouldnt say hes the inventor; obviously hes been a promoter, but Randy Wray would tell you his thinking originates with the chartalists and Minsky, and i dont think Jamie Galbraith would include himself among Moslers followers, either...
Toggle Commented Mar 17, 2016 on 'MMT: Not so Modern' at Economist's View
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if you're talking about Warren Mosler, MMT was around the blogosphere long before he ran for Senate..
Toggle Commented Mar 17, 2016 on 'MMT: Not so Modern' at Economist's View
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if you're talking about Warren Mosler, MMT was around the blogosphere long before he ran for Senate..
Toggle Commented Mar 17, 2016 on 'MMT: Not so Modern' at Economist's View
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if you're talking about Warren Mosler, MMT was around the blogosphere long before he ran for Senate..
Toggle Commented Mar 17, 2016 on 'MMT: Not so Modern' at Economist's View
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"costing jobs" implies they were there to begin with...but never before in the history of the US oil and gas industry was there so little drilling going on in the US than there was in the week just ended, and that includes the first boom of drilling in PA in 1860... http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/oil-rig-scorecard-us-drilling-all-time-low-saudis-near-their-high-5928
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Is weak U.S. wage growth all because of who’s getting jobs? from Equitable Growth asserts: {retiring} older workers, who are disproportionately higher-wage earners, are no longer included in the average wage, which will push down measured average wage growth. At the same time, new full-time jobs are relatively low-wage jobs, that will also pull down measured wage growth. hasn't that always happened?
Toggle Commented Mar 11, 2016 on Links for 03-11-16 at Economist's View
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the state oil production number looks right, since i know off the top that US production has been around 9.1 million barrels per day the past month... but $40 a barrel isn't clear profit...in fact, most drillers are losing money at that price...
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the trouble is that Krugman, Krueger, Goolsbee, Romer, and Tyson are all from the old schools of economics, which they base their thinking on and have to support because their whole life hinges on it, just like Mankiw has to sell his textbooks, so they'll never understand the thinking that's behind Sanders proposals...the place they'd have to start over with is with Stephanie Kelton, Sanders chief economic advisor, and a leading proponent of MMT..
Toggle Commented Feb 18, 2016 on 'What Has the Wonks Worried' at Economist's View
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i regularly carry 50s because i'm still learning how to use a credit card...a year and a half ago i withdrew batches of big bills several times to pay the handman who was remodeling my bathroom, because he did not have a bank account where he could cash my checks... i cant believe that drugs dealers will quit dealing and terrorists will become peaceniks if we elimate the hundred dollar bill...
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