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rjs
denizen of a rural NE Ohio swamp
unencumbered by education, affiliations, beliefs or agenda; im not advocating anything
Recent Activity
looks like you've led a whole generation of economics students astray...
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every couple of months we see articles on why GDP fails at this or that; for what GDP actually measures, see table 3: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2015/pdf/gdp3q15_3rd.pdf why try to conflate it into anything more, just to knock it down? no one ascribes a higher purpose to measurements of business inventories or construction spending when those reports are released; why attach so much importance to a report that sums them together?
Toggle Commented Jan 28, 2016 on Links for 01-28-16 at Economist's View
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US production rose from around 5 million barrels per day in 2007 to around 9.2 million barrels per day now...global production has gradually climbed from 84 to 96 million barrels per day, with global growth in demand lagging that...net, the global surplus has been running at about 1.5 million barrels per day this year, with storage space running out, and now Iran will start exporting too...gonna be an interesting year...
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the thermostat is just a dummy...they always try to fool you into imagininng that you have some control over your environment...
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i find Zero Hedge useful in that they will occasionally discover something in the data that no one else has...in this case, Zero Hedge was accurately citing the inventory data, just as Mr Taylor does, but jumping to the wrong conclusion...
Toggle Commented Jan 1, 2016 on Links for 01-01-16 at Economist's View
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zero hedge and Mish have been ranting about the inventory to sales ratio all year, calling a recession...what has actually it’s pretty simple; there are considerably more sales of oil and oil products than there are of inventories, so when their price was cut in half, a lot of nominal sales were lost, but less so inventory, skewing the ratio… i responded to a similar thread in quite of bit of detail at Angry Bear last week, even exploring the inventory to sales ratio of several wholesale segments: http://angrybearblog.com/2015/12/inventories-sales-ratio.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Hzoh+%28angrybearblog.com%29 bottom line, one really can’t tell anything from looking at the nominal aggregates like Taylor does, especially where prices of some components are going in opposite directions…
Toggle Commented Jan 1, 2016 on Links for 01-01-16 at Economist's View
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Jodi, are you and other Senaca Lake people following the Aliso Canyon gas leak story? biggest gas storage site in California has been leaking since October, 100,000 pounds of methane per hour, it's being compared to the BP oil spill...wealthy suburbs of LA, including Porter Ranch, have been evacuated...they dont have a fix, say it will leak at least till a relief well is drilled this spring... a few links from this week: http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/34158-porter-ranch-methane-leak-does-not-bode-well-for-climate http://ecowatch.com/2015/12/22/erin-brockovich-porter-ranch/ http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-24/unstoppable-california-gas-leak-now-being-called-worst-catastrophe-bp-spill
the budget bill also has provisions preventing the IRS from going after political front groups masquerading as charities: http://wallstreetonparade.com/2015/12/right-wing-vendetta-legislated-into-law-in-new-omnibus-spending-bill/
Toggle Commented Dec 23, 2015 on Links for 12-23-15 at Economist's View
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here's a graphic on shale gas output... http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jO-Kz_Mz6uA/VnCWc_fO0KI/AAAAAAAATqU/bvDOBhz392g/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2015-12-15%2Bat%2B6.23.01%2BPM.png you can see why they're looking for more storage space...
output from PA & OH wells hasn't gone down much, if at all...i suppose theoretically they could shut them in, but right now most of the frackers need that cash flow just to pay interest on their debt... on the other side of the coin, if they can store cheap gas until next winter, they'd be betting prices would higher then, and they'd be in a position to profit from the contango... so i tend to think that this year is crunch time...if they dont get it this year, then they're likely to abandon the effort...
i was just thinking about this...natural gas contracts are at $1.75 per mmBTU, the lowest ever on an inflation adjusted basis and the lowest ever for a January contract in 25 years of NYMEX trading...last week, NY city spot gas was at $1, and PA pipeline gas was at 48 cents...as you must have noticed, it's been warm, and no one is using much gas...there is real fear among industry insiders that if the warm weather continues, they'll run out of space to put what's being produced...so i'm betting they'll throw everything they got at opening those Seneca Lake salt caverns to store the surplus...
the “technological neutrality” provisions of TISA (the Trade in Services Agreement) that Obama is negotiating with 45 countries would prohibit incentives for renewable electricity generation, and the ISDS (Investor-state dispute settlement) provisions would allow coal companies to sue the administration for damages, with adjudication before an international industry tribunal under the WTO...wonder which of the treaties he's been pushing Obama will adhere to...
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sorry about that...apparently the emailed comment response does not like bullet points... EV Sales in November, 2015, not including Ford Tesla: 3,200 -- most in any month; previous high this year, 2,800 in June; last month, 1,900 Nissan Leaf: 1,054, down from 1,238; average monthly sales this year: 1,447 Chevrolet Volt: 1,980, down from 2,035; average monthly sales this year: 1,207 VW e-Golf: 472, down from 596 in October; average monthly sales this year: 32 Toyota Prius PHV: only 44 in November, down from a paltry 91 in October; average monthly sales for the year: 379 Fiat 500e (estimate): 390, down from 425; average monthly sales this year: 539
Toggle Commented Dec 14, 2015 on Paul Krugman: Hope From Paris at Economist's View
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on the other hand, EV Sales in November, 2015, not including Ford Tesla: 3,200 -- most in any month; previous high this year, 2,800 in June; last month, 1,900Nissan Leaf: 1,054, down from 1,238; average monthly sales this year: 1,447Chevrolet Volt: 1,980, down from 2,035; average monthly sales this year: 1,207VW e-Golf: 472, down from 596 in October; average monthly sales this year: 32Toyota Prius PHV: only 44 in November, down from a paltry 91 in October; average monthly sales for the year: 379 Fiat 500e (estimate): 390, down from 425; average monthly sales this year: 539
Toggle Commented Dec 14, 2015 on Paul Krugman: Hope From Paris at Economist's View
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links to support the above cites are here: http://focusonfracking.blogspot.com/2015/12/the-cop-21-and-opec-meetings-increases.html
Toggle Commented Dec 14, 2015 on Paul Krugman: Hope From Paris at Economist's View
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China has already approved construction of an additional 155 coal generation power plants in the first 9 months of this year; India has permitted a similar number of new plants, as their coal-fired electric generating capacity grew 9.4% this year, Japan is building an additional 40 coal fired plants to replace their mothballed nuclear generating capacity, and Germany has also increased coal generation as they've shut down their nuclear plants...all told, the countries meeting in Paris are currently planning to build 2,440 coal-fired power stations in the not too distant future; so by 2030, plants now planned or under construction will increase global coal generating capacity by 40%...most of these new plants have 40 year life spans...meanwhile, back in the US, Americans bought new vehicles at a 18.12 million annual rate in November, marking the first time in our history we've bought new cars at that rate three months in a row...59% of November’s vehicle sales volume was classified as light trucks, ie, pickups and SUVs, as light trucks accounted for three out of every four vehicles sold by US auto makers last month, the highest mix of pickup and SUV deliveries as a percentage of vehicle sales in history.. and while Obama was speechifying in Paris, US trade negotiators were in Geneva working on the “technological neutrality” provisions of TISA (the Trade in Services Agreement), wherein frackers could dispute subsidies for solar or wind power as unfair, while US trade rep Michael Froman was back on Capitol Hill pushing the TPP and other trade agreements that would mandate the exports of our coal, oil & gas to half the world... the point is that we have to judge what is actually accomplished as a result of this conference, rather than what is promised by the politicians coming out of it...if this conference ends with a plan to tear down all the coal generating capacity now being built, abrogate the trade agreements that we've already signed, and confiscate and junk all the newly purchased gas-guzzlers, then we'd judge that we're making progress towards a global climate solution.....but if it ends with speech making and platitudes like each of the prior climate conferences have, just figure COP-21 is all hot air, it's business as usual, and understand that a lot of jet fuel was burned for no good reason to boot...
Toggle Commented Dec 14, 2015 on Paul Krugman: Hope From Paris at Economist's View
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a 6% decrease in CO2 emissions from 2014 would still be more than any other year before 2013, and 50% more than 1990...meanwhile, China has already approved construction of an additional 155 coal generation power plants in the first 9 months of this year; India has permitted a similar number of new plants, as their coal-fired electric generating capacity grew 9.4% this year, and Japan is building an additional 40 coal fired plants to replace their mothballed nuclear generating capacity...all told, the countries meeting in Paris are currently planning to build 2,440 coal-fired power stations in the not too distant future; so by 2030, plants now planned or under construction will increase global coal generating capacity by 40%...
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uhhh...vehicle emission controls have little effect on CO2 emissions...in fact part of what a catalytic converter does is convert harmful carbon monoxide and unburned smog causing hydrocarbons into "harmless" CO2 and H2O
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Don Boudreaux at Cafe Hayek responds to Noah: http://cafehayek.com/2015/11/most-of-what-you-learn-in-econ-101-is-right.html that's at least the third post this week he wrote in response to Noah...keeps them both out of trouble..
Toggle Commented Nov 25, 2015 on Links for 11-25-15 at Economist's View
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i am in no position to judge, since i never took Econ 101 or any other economics course...could be i missed something i should know... when Noah first started writing, he oftem provided unique insights with a touch of humor, which drew me to read everything he wrote then...since about when he started wrting for Bloomberg, he's lost most of that cutting edge perception, and worse less, his sense of humor about what he sees...so i now read him less, and considering the title of that piece, not at all... hence, my comment was frivolous, and not meant to offend...
Toggle Commented Nov 25, 2015 on Links for 11-25-15 at Economist's View
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maybe a firty-fifty chance of a La-Nina, but nothing cast in stone: http://ecowatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Global-annual-average_750.jpg
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re: "Most of What You Learned in Econ 101 Is Wrong" at least i didn't waste my time with it...
Toggle Commented Nov 25, 2015 on Links for 11-25-15 at Economist's View
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re the piece from the St Louis Fed: "On the Economy" is also the title of Jared Bernstein's blog...
Toggle Commented Nov 18, 2015 on Links for 11-18-15 at Economist's View
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seems this is a bit of old news...demographics argues for a China slowdown, maybe a Japanification of China...maybe he should have addressed India's rise...
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