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rjs
denizen of a rural NE Ohio swamp
unencumbered by education, affiliations, beliefs or agenda; im not advocating anything
Recent Activity
i am getting a "video may no longer exist or you dont have permission to view it" message...
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as i commented on the Econbrowser thread, i've long had some disagreements with some of the ways the Atlanta Fed comes up with their GDPNow estimates during the month...to start with, they incorporate the monthly results of the ISM surveys, unweighted diffusion indexes derived from samplings of subjective executive opinion....any correspondence those survey results have with the output of goods and services for the same month is pure chance...in addition, they always update their estimate of GDP on the day of the retail sales release, which tells us nothing about real personal consumption and hence output until we get the release of consumer price index several days later...moreover, they not only ignore the results of the CPI, they also don't incorporate any results from the PPI-FD release or the import-export price index into their estimates...components of the PPI are used to adjust construction, inventories, and other investment for changes in price to give us the real change in output...some months, change in prices is one of the largest factors in the change in GDP...for example, nominal inventories might be reported down 0.5%, but if corresponding producer prices for the same period were down 1.0%, that means real inventories were up 0.5%...someone at the Atlanta Fed need to sit down with the NIPA handbook and see how GDP is really computed...
Toggle Commented 6 days ago on Dueling Nowcasts at Economist's View
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though i have his blog on all my feedreaders, i've stopped reading Krugman altogether...but i note that he used to say "The Facts Have A Well-Known Left Wing Bias" and the headline shown above indicates he's moved to the right...
Toggle Commented May 10, 2016 on Links for 05-10-16 at Economist's View
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i've just stopped reading Krugman altogether since he became a full time shill...and i am, btw, subscribed to his posts thru my feedreader...
Toggle Commented Apr 2, 2016 on Links for 04-02-16 at Economist's View
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i wouldnt say hes the inventor; obviously hes been a promoter, but Randy Wray would tell you his thinking originates with the chartalists and Minsky, and i dont think Jamie Galbraith would include himself among Moslers followers, either...
Toggle Commented Mar 17, 2016 on 'MMT: Not so Modern' at Economist's View
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if you're talking about Warren Mosler, MMT was around the blogosphere long before he ran for Senate..
Toggle Commented Mar 17, 2016 on 'MMT: Not so Modern' at Economist's View
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if you're talking about Warren Mosler, MMT was around the blogosphere long before he ran for Senate..
Toggle Commented Mar 17, 2016 on 'MMT: Not so Modern' at Economist's View
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if you're talking about Warren Mosler, MMT was around the blogosphere long before he ran for Senate..
Toggle Commented Mar 17, 2016 on 'MMT: Not so Modern' at Economist's View
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"costing jobs" implies they were there to begin with...but never before in the history of the US oil and gas industry was there so little drilling going on in the US than there was in the week just ended, and that includes the first boom of drilling in PA in 1860... http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/oil-rig-scorecard-us-drilling-all-time-low-saudis-near-their-high-5928
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Is weak U.S. wage growth all because of who’s getting jobs? from Equitable Growth asserts: {retiring} older workers, who are disproportionately higher-wage earners, are no longer included in the average wage, which will push down measured average wage growth. At the same time, new full-time jobs are relatively low-wage jobs, that will also pull down measured wage growth. hasn't that always happened?
Toggle Commented Mar 11, 2016 on Links for 03-11-16 at Economist's View
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the state oil production number looks right, since i know off the top that US production has been around 9.1 million barrels per day the past month... but $40 a barrel isn't clear profit...in fact, most drillers are losing money at that price...
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the trouble is that Krugman, Krueger, Goolsbee, Romer, and Tyson are all from the old schools of economics, which they base their thinking on and have to support because their whole life hinges on it, just like Mankiw has to sell his textbooks, so they'll never understand the thinking that's behind Sanders proposals...the place they'd have to start over with is with Stephanie Kelton, Sanders chief economic advisor, and a leading proponent of MMT..
Toggle Commented Feb 18, 2016 on 'What Has the Wonks Worried' at Economist's View
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i regularly carry 50s because i'm still learning how to use a credit card...a year and a half ago i withdrew batches of big bills several times to pay the handman who was remodeling my bathroom, because he did not have a bank account where he could cash my checks... i cant believe that drugs dealers will quit dealing and terrorists will become peaceniks if we elimate the hundred dollar bill...
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the judge's decision not to do an autopsy, even though he hadn't seen the body, and to cremate his Catholic remains, will leave the conspiracy theory field wide open forever...the court has heard a lot of cases this year that they haven't ruled on; with a 4-4 tie, they're all thrown back to the appeals court decision...
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they may lower their costs to $20 a barrel, but they wont be close to what it costs the Saudis or Iraqis...the Saudis just drill a hole and they've got oil; US producers have to frack after they drill a hole, which costs 3 times as much as the drilling..
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you can't just change the entire page size? every weekend, when i proofread my mailed newsletters, i just use Zoom on the entire page so i can read what i wrote without using reading glasses; when i'm done, i switch back to 125% to view the inbox...
Toggle Commented Feb 12, 2016 on I can't read my email at Environmental Economics
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proof that Russia wants war: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/03/proof-russia-iran-want-war-look-close-put-countries-military-bases.html (look how close they put their country to our military bases)
Toggle Commented Feb 9, 2016 on Links for 02-09-16 at Economist's View
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amazing. Tim Taylor wrote about the Russian economy without mentioning the international sactions that we imposed on them 2 years ago..
Toggle Commented Feb 9, 2016 on Links for 02-09-16 at Economist's View
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i've only used half the heat oil i normally would by this time of year..
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looks like you've led a whole generation of economics students astray...
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every couple of months we see articles on why GDP fails at this or that; for what GDP actually measures, see table 3: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2015/pdf/gdp3q15_3rd.pdf why try to conflate it into anything more, just to knock it down? no one ascribes a higher purpose to measurements of business inventories or construction spending when those reports are released; why attach so much importance to a report that sums them together?
Toggle Commented Jan 28, 2016 on Links for 01-28-16 at Economist's View
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US production rose from around 5 million barrels per day in 2007 to around 9.2 million barrels per day now...global production has gradually climbed from 84 to 96 million barrels per day, with global growth in demand lagging that...net, the global surplus has been running at about 1.5 million barrels per day this year, with storage space running out, and now Iran will start exporting too...gonna be an interesting year...
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the thermostat is just a dummy...they always try to fool you into imagininng that you have some control over your environment...
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i find Zero Hedge useful in that they will occasionally discover something in the data that no one else has...in this case, Zero Hedge was accurately citing the inventory data, just as Mr Taylor does, but jumping to the wrong conclusion...
Toggle Commented Jan 1, 2016 on Links for 01-01-16 at Economist's View
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