sq km 3.14159 seems appropriate under the mathematical constraints of atmospheric and oceanographic conditions at this time.

Largest calving event video recorded, lasts 75 minutes. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/video/2012/dec/12/chasing-ice-iceberg-greenland-video?intcmp=122 Pretty awesome.

NOAA State of the Arctic 2012 report released today. http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/

Here is a recent paper review in Climate Change that relates wind direction and strength changes as they have affected the polar melt for the last six years. http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/june-wind-shift-little-something-extra.html Hope this isn't old news as I have not read all the posts lately.

Sorry, forgot the link. http://www.timescolonist.com/business/Haida+Gwaii+have+created+life+there/7396120/story.html

The Victoria Times Colonist has a scary article regarding testing of iron particles in the ocean off Haida Gwai (Queen Charlotte Islands) north of Vancouver Canada. The Haida people there want to make money by selling carbon credits to industry and make lots of money for their people. Is this the tip of the iceberg for rogue states to sell geoengineering projects to unscrupulous business? The article is quite balanced and I have sent them a thank you note for presenting the whole case. Andrew Weaver, our local climate hero and Nobel recipient has replied.

Recent paper on influence of melt ponds on the accuracy of models for arctic sea ice. Models incorporating melt pond data are more accurate in predicting observed levels of melting. http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/pip/2012JC008195.shtml

I found this article on model accuracy. Hope it is not old news. http://www.springerlink.com/content/40326p42218482u4/?MUD=MP

Neven Glad to have you back as captain of this ship. You really nailed it with your statement 'We are entering the age of Consequences". That will resonate far and wide. I feel a visceral twist as I read that. Very ominous and unfortunately correct. When I look at fellow Canadians I see blank faces completely unaware of what has happened and what is coming. There is no escape. Another nail in the coffin, many others everywhere. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/sep/18/mega-mine-australia-global-emissions?INTCMP=SRCH

DMI temperatures North of 80 deg still in a land of their own. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php Another uptick today. No winter this year I guess.

The Canadian governments attack on Science and the Environment brings our foremost climate scientist and Nobel prize winner to publicly state facts and figures that should scare everyone. http://www.timescolonist.com/technology/Tories+continue+science+environment/7229084/story.html "In the September issue of the international journal Nature Geoscience, Andrew MacDougall, Chris Avis and I published a paper in which we quantify the magnitude of the permafrost-carbon feedback to global warming that had been hitherto unaccounted for in previous assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change." "The news is not good. Instrumental records have clearly revealed that the world is about 0.8 degrees Celsius warmer than it was during pre-industrial times. Numerous studies have also indicated that as a consequence of existing levels of greenhouse gases, we have a commitment to an additional future global warming of between 0.6 C and 0.7 C. Our analysis points out that the permafrost-carbon feedback adds to this another 0.4 C to 0.8 C of warming. Taken together, the planet is committed to between 1.8 C and 2.3 C of future global warming - even if emissions-reduction programs start to get implemented." Nice to see a few scientists speaking out and not waiting to print safe statements in an IPCC report. The pendulum is moving.

DMI temperature above 80deg N are still off in a world of their own. Even an uptick today. Water freezing? http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2012.png

Here is a link to an article from Daily Kos. It describes a possible link between increased arctic methane and pearlescent blue cloud formation at high altitude. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/06/1128658/-eSci-Arctic-Glow-in-the-Dark-Clouds-Spreading-South-Linked-to-Increasing-Methane

Thanks Larry, your tables and graphs amaze and educate, me

Timothy Chase Thanks for that reference it clarifies the ratio of top melt to bottom melt. "Bottom melting contributes about 2/3 of total volume melt but is geographically confined to the Marginal Ice Zone, while top melting contributes a lesser 1/3 of volume melt but occurs over a much broader area of the ice pack." It is therefor to be expected that bottom melt is very significant in the decrease in ice volume each summer particularly for FYI. http://psc.apl.washington.edu/zhang/Pubs/Steele_etal_2009JC005849.pdf

A bit more information out on arctic fresh water increase from runoff and storms affecting climate in the northern hemisphere. This may be old news to some people. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/09/120905200554.htm

Chris and Dabize . Has anyone calculated bottom melt rates for FYI and MYI by month and by region? This is the type of information that can tell the relative importance of each domino. It may also reflect the lack of hard data and analysis on bottom melt. Bob

Jim. I agree with your earlier comment about a significant influence by water temperature. There appears to be an abundance of satellite data that is incorporated into much of the discussion on this blog. Currents, both vertical and horizontal play a major role in moving large amounts of heat around. Small water temperature changes will cause a lot of melt if currents are fast. Vertical water movements are studied in a lot less detail than surface air temperatures but they may be a trojan horse in sea ice decline. Bob

Chris. Sorry for that, here is the reference. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2011/06/28/arctic-ice-melting.html Is this considered in your evaluations? Bob

Chris There is another cog in the wheel that may be influencing ice thickness formation. This paper by Jennifer Francis march 2012 describes a profound effect of less fresh water melt on the temperature gradient under the ice. Has this been included in your deliberations on winter formation of ice thickness? http://e360.yale.edu/feature/linking_weird_weather_to_rapid_warming_of_the_arctic/2501/ Perhaps a lack of sufficient data on winter thermoclines and current patterns makes it difficult to determine but this deserves examination.

Superman Couldn't have said it better. I have no doubt Neven will find a way to preserve the science and give an opportunity for wider discussion in a separate venue. We will have the best of both worlds. I am looking forward to discussions on the biological and philosophical understanding derived from the ice science so well investigated on this blog.

An interesting report on mixing differences of bottom melted multi year ice compared to first year saltier ice. This increased mixing caused by saltier first year ice is bringing warmer deep water to the surface. Another nail in the ice coffin. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2011/06/28/arctic-ice-melting.html

M Owens Your comments above are very useful to me because I have been doing exactly what you describe and have been bewildered by the behaviour of the people I think I know. The question is, am I willing to lose a friend in the attempt to get the message across? In some cases yes but others I am not. I have had several successes and several failures. I will continue to prod gently. My most effective results have come from prodding media types. They can affect thousands of others so are great ways to educate people

Arctic mean temperature is starting to wander off into its own little world. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Geoff Bacon ; "the scientific community has serious problems" I agree and the fact that their models have been so conservative (ie wrong) will have them in a quandary. Were they conservative because of lack of data, politics, caution, analytical errors, or unknown factors? Whatever the reasons there will be a lot of scrambling to catch up to the reality of the what is happening in the arctic, atmosphere, oceans, groundwater and soils of this planet. I am reminded of something I read about economists having seldom successfully predicted the most significant financial events especially financial collapses. Predictions are based on known experience and knowledge. When things go past that envelope predictions become problematical. It appears that much is happening now that is beyond our capability to accurately predict. Climate engineering is significantly past that point.