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So you don't believe there is a chance that the Liberals first preference vote will actually fall below the quota and that there is no real competition for that seat in relation to the Greens? It seems to me that the Liberals vote fell last election and the Greens seemed to have gained it. Could this trend not occur in this election also? COMMENT: The Liberal vote fell in 2007 because the Coalition lost government.
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Has any polling occurred in the ACT to suggest that the Liberals Senate vote may actually drop below 33.3%? Or is no-one really sure what's going to happen with the Senate vote? It definitely would be interesting to see what the general mood of the electorate is like in Canberra. Regardless, I'm sure the Greens are being very optimistic about their chances for this seat. COMMENT: The issue is the Liberal vote and I can't see why the Liberal first preference vote would be worse in 2010 than in 2007. I am not aware of any polling.
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Jul 20, 2010