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Glenn, The problem you are overlooking (or at least not mentioning here) are the "emissions" that are built into the planet's carbon storage tanks that may be released even if we get a handle on our CO₂ emissions from energy production. Methane is stored in the Arctic tundra and in methane clathrates in the oceans (in continental shelves). We don't know enough to know whether our warming the geosphere will begin feedback-enhanced release of those enormous storehouses of methane. Once they begin to significantly contribute to greenhouse gas increases, the so-called 'tipping point' has been reached and controlling CO₂ emissions becomes moot insofar as halting further warming is concerned for many decades. Then your other implicit assumptions come into question. Does the technological progress needed for long-term emission decreases stop when the rate of sea level rise grows by an order of magnitude? How about when agricultural production crashes because the world's bread baskets are desertified? How about when refugee flows make today's refugee problems pale in significance? If we are seeing right wing demagogues thrive today, how will it be then?
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
It isn't "leftists" who want to fund schools solely with local property taxes. I've lived in rightist Texas for nearly 30 years and variation in the quality of schools has always been and continues to be enormous despite continuous and total control of government by rightists - try again, son.
Toggle Commented Nov 20, 2016 on Rent or Buy? at Economist's View
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If you are maintaining and upgrading your home, 2% depreciation seems far too high and so geographically dependent as to be misleading. Of course, "maintaining and upgrading" means replacing carpeting or linoleum with tile or engineered floors, replacing formica, buying high-efficiency AC units when replacing the old ones, adding insulation and double-pane windows, replacing appliances, tearing out '70s-look paneling, etc. Having done all that, the modest 1976-built house I bought in 1990 would sell today for a bit above the CPI-adjusted price I paid in 1990.
Toggle Commented Nov 20, 2016 on Rent or Buy? at Economist's View
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Slightly off-topic question: does anyone know where the IJIS data is now being posted? No 2016 data is posted at the link Nevin has had here for years.
Toggle Commented Jan 12, 2016 on PIOMAS January 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Same plots, lower resolution: Arctic Ice extent(IJIS2): http://i713.photobucket.com/albums/ww133/Sane_Person/Arctic%20Meltdown/Sea_Ice_Extent-IJIS2-Arctic-lr_zpstzvapbsa.jpg Arctic Ice Area(CT): http://i713.photobucket.com/albums/ww133/Sane_Person/Arctic%20Meltdown/Sea_Ice_Area-CT-Arctic-lr_zpszmydhmjn.jpg Antarctic (CT): http://i713.photobucket.com/albums/ww133/Sane_Person/Arctic%20Meltdown/Sea_Ice_Area-CT-Antarctic-lr_zpsybrzcc4n.jpg
Toggle Commented Jan 4, 2016 on A difference in nonsense at Arctic Sea Ice
These plots take a while to load, if readers get impatient, I'll post lower-res pics!
Toggle Commented Jan 4, 2016 on A difference in nonsense at Arctic Sea Ice
I think that the most useful plots are decadal; ten-year averaging eliminates most of the "weather" fluctuations are is more revealing as to "climate" trends. For example on the basis of these I would differ with navegante's assertion that "anually averaged extent has not really changed in ten years" : Arctic Ice extent(IJIS2): http://i713.photobucket.com/albums/ww133/Sane_Person/Arctic%20Meltdown/Sea_Ice_Extent-IJIS2-Arctic_zpsp5xqgf4c.jpg Arctic Ice Area(CT): http://i713.photobucket.com/albums/ww133/Sane_Person/Arctic%20Meltdown/Sea_Ice_Area-CT-Arctic_zpsobz6vtfn.jpg Contrast the Antarctic: http://i713.photobucket.com/albums/ww133/Sane_Person/Arctic%20Meltdown/Sea_Ice_Area-CT-Antarctic_zpsxp5ognsg.jpg The important information in all three of the above are the grey and black curves. I really think it would be more revealing for the NSIDC to use decadal averages rather than show the "standard deviations" getting ever larger. How much sense does it make when the "mean" is undergoing a systematic time-dependent decline to use all 36 years of the data to get standard deviations?
Toggle Commented Jan 4, 2016 on A difference in nonsense at Arctic Sea Ice
Even worse, the benefits have accrued to those financed the people who created the new technology.
Toggle Commented Dec 31, 2015 on 'Beating a Dead Robotic Horse' at Economist's View
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WRT to reducing your carbon footprint: Americans who want to install residential solar PV systems should take note that 2016 is the last year for which the 30% residential tax credit is guaranteed. Installers will be working on my 6.2 kW capacity system tomorrow. I live in a fairly favorable location for solar (College Station, TX - good latitude, but number of cloudy days is greater than east TX, New Mexico, Arizona, or So. Cal. If you live in Phoenix or San Diego and can possibly afford to do this, it is a financial no-brainer - far better than any low-risk long term investment you can find.
I am all for badmouthing Republicans as morons who have nursed at the teat of an execrable right wing propaganda machine because it is undoubtedly true. I do it ALL the time. Unfortunately, before I conclude that "my side" has come to the correct conclusions for the right reasons (i.e., because they are heavily supported by the evidence, the real evidence), you need a some questions that measure similar unscientific attitudes amongst my liberal friends. Try conversing with some liberals about genetically modified foods, for example. So far, there are three aspects of the current 'age of polarization' in the US, at least, that make the right much worse than the left. (1) The GOP is much more controlled by extremists than the left (extreme leftists are virtually nonexistent in the US), (2) The Democratic party will allow for much more deviation from their orthodoxies. Not so in the GOP: they have driven people who accept the scientific consensus on climate change to virtual extinction in the GOP (anyone remember Jon Huntsman?) and now even people who accept the theory of evolution keep their mouths shut and allow that we should 'teach the controversy', and (3) there are no visible GOP office holders who aren't thoroughly corrupted by money (not that there are a lot among the Democrats).
Jeb may be a moron, but you do remember how excruciating it was to have to listen to his brother, don't you? Mo was an idiot, but compared to Curly...
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There is a number called "fair market rent" (call it FMR; http://www.huduser.org/portal/datasets/fmr/fmr_il_history.html) that is already calculated by HUD and is used in income tax calculations. It is a county-based quantity that is an attempt to track what people are paying in any locale for rent. Anyway, in order to eliminate the mortgage deduction, I would suggest a cap in the mortgage interest deduction at, say, 30 times the annual FMR so that people paying $30K in annual rent will have a cap of $900K on their interest deduction. That bites very few buyers. But then, next year the cap will be 29 times the annual FMR , and two years from now, 28 times the annual FMR until either the multiplier declines to zero or to whatever cap is politically achievable in the long run.
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Never mind! I needed to use the right browser (Chrome) to see the slides.
Toggle Commented May 24, 2015 on Video: Top Rate of Taxation at Economist's View
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Why show us the presenter standing there talking instead of shgowing the Powerpoint slides?
Toggle Commented May 24, 2015 on Video: Top Rate of Taxation at Economist's View
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"The earth is at least 6 billion years old." The Earth is actually 4.54 ± 0.05 billion years old.
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The process of natural selection would surely dictate that Santa Claus is most likely white. If he's a predator, he would be too visible to successfully hunt his prey in his snowy environment, likewise, if he is prey his would stand out and be picked off by any predators hunting him.
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Mdoliner43: I don't know if the Wikipedia numbers are used for the app, but do note that the app indicates that the heat accumulated is equivalent to 4.6 x 10⁸ MILLION lightning bolts.
The oceans are responsible for 93% of the heat capacity of the biosphere. In the last decade sea levels have risen by 3.2 ± 0.4 cm and in the decade before that? 3.2 ± 0.4 cm - the same, within the level of uncertainty. Where did the water come from? Data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) show that about 1.0 cm of the 3.2 cm in the past ten years came from melting of Greenland (~2600 Gt) and Antarctic (~800 Gt) land ice. The best estimates indicate that ~7 mm out of the 6.4 cm in the past twenty years came from groundwater depletion. The rest came from THERMAL EXPANSION. The freakin' oceans are literally acting as a liquid expansion thermometer, like a mercury thermometer or red-dyed alcohol thermometer. The heat content of the oceans - again, 93% of the biosphere's heat capacity - is unquestionably continuing to rise. Just as fast in the last ten years as in the 10 years before. Sea level has been rising for more than 100 years, but faster in the past twenty years. Continued global warming is as much a stone fact as it is a fact that the rising level of a liquid thermometer indicates the heating of the liquid in the thermometer.
Toggle Commented Nov 15, 2013 on The 'hiatus' and the Arctic at Arctic Sea Ice
An outstanding effort Neven - and kudos to your contributors Jim Pettitt, Wipneus, and Seke Rob for their first rate graphical presentations (and to commenters who have made this a regular stop for me).
I'll guess 3.7, which is nothing more than an eyeball estimate of the long term nonlinear trend. There really is nothing more to my guess than that.
Rick's point concerning the meaning "1 STD" (sexually transmitted or not:) is related to some other head scratching. The 1σ and 2σ bands on the Piomas graphs seem to only have meaning in the context of an assumed linear decline of the ice volume. But if the "true" trend should be represented an exponential or a Gompertz curve, it seems that the bands would be narrower (or am I wrong). Oh well, I do know one thing, σ is sigma, not omega! ;)
Toggle Commented Apr 6, 2013 on PIOMAS April 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
I would find the "regression to the mean" point to be more useful if I thought we knew what "the mean" means! As Ghoti Of Lod points out, when there is reason to believe that data are distributed randomly about a stable mean, "regression to the mean" is expected after a year like 2012. We don't have a stable mean. For all we know, 2008 was anamalously high.
Toggle Commented Jan 9, 2013 on PIOMAS January 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
In case you missed it (or, actually, to beat Wipneus to the punch!), the PIOMAS data for Dec. 2012 is out. No surprises, but it is worth noting that the mean Dec. 2012 ice volume estimate is lower than the mean ice volume estimate for SEPTEMBER for 1994 or any earlier year.
Toggle Commented Jan 7, 2013 on Looking for winter weirdness 5 at Arctic Sea Ice
Lucas, IMHO, if you include phrases like "we need to convince the planet that we need to put the global economy into a depression of unknown duration, starting tomorrow" you are doing exactly what your worst enemies want you to do. The climate delayers and people who want to push Rube Goldberg geoengineering schemes (say, Bjorn Lomberg) LOVE to see the alternative cast in exactly this light. With that kind of talk (and I think it is simply incorrect) you are basically handing the reins over to the BAU folks. Besides, a depression that reduces economic activity by 25-33% would only reduce GHG emissions by 25-30% by itself. We would still have to transform our energy system and without the economic dynamism needed to do the job. Reduction of economic activity by, what? 80 - 90%, would kill just as many people as droughts, floods, desertification, etc. I think the kind of people Wayne is talking about (Joe Romm and his new associate Stephen Lacey, for example) are much closer to the only path you might convince people to move down.
idunno, I know Hans is just trolling, but to follow up, if methane from melting methane clathrates could be could be economically captured, it would be even better to disproportionate it, use the carbon-rich products as a chemical feedstock and only burn the hydrogen. Alas, I'm sure the methane from clathrates is far too dispersed to be a practical source.