This is Tim Knight's Typepad Profile.
Join Typepad and start following Tim Knight's activity
Join Now!
Already a member? Sign In
Tim Knight
Active trader and technical analyst.
Interests: technical analysis, trading stocks and options, and making money in the equity and options markets.
Recent Activity
Well now that we've got that out of the way Get what out of the way you ask? Breakout into new all time highs in the S&P 500 that is. We're not really excited about this breakout errr eek into a new high rather as it took place into a holiday and into quarter end window dressing. But it is what it is. Don't forget to be on the lookout for a shake and bake shake out high here folks. If that's going to happen, it's going to happen soon. We've spent a lot of time the past few days... Continue reading
Posted Apr 1, 2013 at Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight
This Sunday for many is the most important day of the year. Of course I’m speaking of Easter. For many others it’s just a holiday celebrated with no time off of work. Then there are others who bristle at such a thing and go out of their way to not pay attention to anything religion based. Fair enough, it’s a free country which I believe is one of our great strengths when put into proper perspectives. Only people comfortable with who they are can tolerate or accept others for who they are. At least that’s how I see it. Regardless... Continue reading
Posted Mar 30, 2013 at Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight
Hey Fellow Slopers, I'm still digging into the new Slope, which looks pretty impressive so far. Just thought I'd take a moment to share something that caught my eye about SPY and GLD. Happy Easter to Tim and the Slope community. GLD versus SPY in Q1 The SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) dramatically outperformed the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) in the first quarter of 2013, as the chart below illustrates, but, interestingly, GLD is considerably less expensive to hedge over the next several months. Low Volatility On Both Gold and S&P 500 As of quarter end, expected volatility... Continue reading
Posted Mar 29, 2013 at Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight
Further to my last Weekly Market Update, this week's update will look at: 6 Major Indices 9 Major Sectors 30-Year Bonds U.S. $ Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) and BRIC Indices & ETF (BKF) Germany, France, and the PIIGS Indices 6 Major Indices As shown on the Weekly charts and the percentage gained/lost graph below of the Major Indices, the largest gains this past week were in the Dow Utilities, followed by Dow Transports, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow 30, and Russell 2000. The Indices remain (technically) in overbought territory on their Weekly and Monthly timeframes, which may be viewed as... Continue reading
Posted Mar 29, 2013 at Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight
Each candle on the following charts of the 4 Major Indices represents One Quarter. The last candle represents Q1 of 2013 and closed today (March 28th, since the markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday of the Easter long weekend). You can see at a glance that the Nasdaq 100 has lagged the other three all year, so far, and is hampered by major resistance. The Dow 30 and Russell 2000 have made a new all-time high and closing high, while the S&P 500 made an all-time closing high today (however, its all-time intraday high of 1576.09 remains unbroken and... Continue reading
Posted Mar 29, 2013 at Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight
Hold your thumb and forefinger tip so close that you can barely see an light between them. The space is about as thin as the support line on the first chart and the bottoming pattern neckline on the second. GYX daily chart The industrial metals (including ‘Economic Doctor’ copper) are on the verge of losing support and are a non-confirmation of any strong economic near-future. Yes of course, it is because of China’s growth problems and other global issues. Will the US and newly inflationary Japan pick up the slack? We have been noting economic strength in the US (sparked... Continue reading
Posted Mar 29, 2013 at Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight
Image
Hi Slopers - Real life had kept me from blogging for a while, but this woke me out of the slumber. Gamestop (GME) - for those of you who aren't familiar, is a retailer that sells video games and video game accessories. That's it. If Hank Hill sold technology, this would be his gig. I've worked with retailers for 22 years. I know shoppers habbits and understand certain items almost always require a trip to the store - Apparel, Food and Jewelry are great examples of items that need to be seen /touched / tried on in person rather than... Continue reading
Posted Mar 29, 2013 at Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight
Image
“What’s the deal with social networking stocks?” Mike’s frantic email read like an investor who risked far too much. “I risked $25,000 — my savings account — on the Facebook IPO, and it’s down by nearly half.” What could I tell him? That he missed the 800-pound gorilla sitting in the middle of the room? "Better luck next time?" The problem with social networking IPOs is that foolish investors — giddy with profit potential anticipation — are placing high valuations on social networking companies because they think the sector can’t fail. But as many are learning, these public social media... Continue reading
Posted Mar 29, 2013 at Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight
Image
Hang on to your hats, everyone! The big change is happening right now. So dont' be surprised if all kinds of weirdnesses and oddities are taking place (comments being down, etc.) The new Slope is being brought to life. Hang in there. Please also note that it takes a while for the Internet to catch up with domain name server changes, so if you find yourself on the new web site, log in, and then are whisked to the old one, please don't die of shock. It'll all straighten out in the end. Continue reading
Posted Mar 29, 2013 at Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight
Image
Eight years ago, I was on a celebratory vacation with my family in Cancun. My wife and I had sold our startup business, Prophet.net, a couple of months before, and now that we had tidied up all the loose ends, we wanted to go have some fun and spend time with our two young children. My wife had been prodding me for some time to start a blog, but I thought blogs were just a fad. I finally gave in, and I wrote my first post on March 29th, 2005. Today, therefore, completes eight full years of the Slope of... Continue reading
Posted Mar 28, 2013 at Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight
Image
We typically have bars on Fridays, but tomorrow is a holiday (and I'm going to be making a big announcement, so be sure to come on by anyway!), so we're going to do the bar today, courtesy of Doji Girl. It turns out that a friend of hers is a performing mermaid at this bar: Here's some video of the aforementioned friend in action........ Continue reading
Posted Mar 28, 2013 at Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight
MS or Morgan Stanley is looking very weak and is venerable for a significant drop lower. Over the last week and month MS has been trending downards towards previous support at 21.78. The last few days MS has chopped around this level but has not tested it again. MS 's price action has formed two descending triangle patterns which are all dependent on a base at 21.78. What make this level so important is that there is NO support below this level till 20.30 or about 6% lower and that support is even weak. The strong support is at 19.15... Continue reading
Posted Mar 28, 2013 at Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight
In an earlier post I pulled the old HUI 888 skeleton out of my closet. 888 (AKA the 3 Snowmen) was a target measurement based on how the chart looked in 2010. It can be liberating to take your worst call and publicize it for the world to see. They tell me that you sell a lot of newsletters that way too . All market geniuses should try it once in a while. Kidding aside, it can be a lesson in learning from mistakes. Can this chart tell us anything of value today? HUI monthly chart (through 2010) Well what... Continue reading
Posted Mar 28, 2013 at Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight
ES failed to make the top of the current channel on the last move up and formed a small triangle. That has now broken up and another test of the current high looks likely. If ES breaks above then channel resistance is now at 1566: On the SPX 60min chart the possible double-top is still in play. If we see a move up to test the next big resistance level at the 2007 high at 1576, then this would be more likely to be an early stage H&S forming: The daily upper bollinger band is also at 1576. Middle BB... Continue reading
Posted Mar 28, 2013 at Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight
Source: http://www.indexq.org/ UPDATE: 1:15 pm EST: Which market has been hurt the most over the past couple of days by the Cyprus banking crisis? Hint, see data below, as well as yesterday's post. UPDATE: 7:15 pm EST: This Daily ratio chart of the Russian Index vs. the Greek Index shows Russia's relative strength over Greece for the past two days. A break and hold above 30.00 could launch it higher above the trading range that it's been in since last November on further weakening of Greece, while a break and hold below 25.00 could signal much more trouble ahead for... Continue reading
Posted Mar 27, 2013 at Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight
Image
The best thing that happened to me today was that I successfully renewed my driver's license. Yes, the bar was set that low. After all, when one's profit peaks a few minutes after the opening bell, and by the closing bell one is looking at a small loss, well, that pretty much sucks the wind right out of you. So knowing I won't have to visit the horrible DMV office for another six years is the thin reed on which I am hanging today's happiness. The thing that tatters my tulips (OK, I just made that up.......) is how equities... Continue reading
Posted Mar 27, 2013 at Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight
Originally published on TheTechTrader.com. Continue reading
Posted Mar 27, 2013 at Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight
Image
If there was a way to strangle a monitor, I'd be surrounded by dead monitors right now. It's all because of one chart, comparing the EUR/USD for the past 120 trading days with the @ES: As you can see, for about the first half of the chart, the @ES cheerfully followed the EUR/USD higher. But somewhere around the time I've tinted in magenta, they disconnected. The EUR/USD has been in a bear market for two solid months. Equities, however, have merrily pushed higher, utterly oblivious. What scares the hell out of me is that the EUR/USD looks like it may... Continue reading
Posted Mar 27, 2013 at Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight
Image
Yesterday I shorted Best Buy (symbol BBY) at 22.68, and I've got a stop at 22.74. I think this bounce is out of gas. I was also reminded of one of my favorite pictures I saved on the Slope of Hope Facebook Page. This was taken during the glorious, wonderful days of the financial crisis, which is an era I wish the world had stayed in on a permanent basis. That was a time I could be truly, truly blissful. May it return again in spades and lay waste to the evildoers among us. Continue reading
Posted Mar 27, 2013 at Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight
Image
I wish I could find my first mention of CLF being a great short from last year, but I just don't have the time. I did find this "follow-up" post (meaning I had suggested it as a short earlier, probably when it broken its neckline at around $44): Even after this bragadocious follow-up post, CLF was still in the mid-30s. It's in the teens now. Continue reading
Posted Mar 27, 2013 at Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight
If the SPX rising channel had broken down on this recent retracement I would have little doubt that we were looking at topping action here, with a steep channel being replaced with a shallower channel prior to a significant breakdown. The rising channel on SPX has not yet broken down however, so this may just be consolidation. On the current ES channel an RSI 15min sell signal triggered overnight, but unlike the previous seven signals this was at the test of the last high rather than at channel resistance. This should mean that we are going to see this channel... Continue reading
Posted Mar 27, 2013 at Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight
Image
This is the TENTH DAY IN A ROW that the ES has "toggled" (up/down/up/down). Has this ever happened before? This market has lost its mind. I find it comic and tragic at the same time. At least the comment stream on Slope follows suit. On odd days, I will laugh and point at the bulls, who will be totally absent. On even days, Clint and Googley will be giddy, anticipating the ES will be at [{Current Value}+25 Points] in the next day or two, and I will be mute. I seriously can't remember ever seeing anything so ridiculous. Continue reading
Posted Mar 27, 2013 at Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight