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Spike McLarty
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When I plug this into a basic logistic growth model (A Verhulst-style curve fits nicely - I'm assuming the 2006 number is artificially low because that was a short year.), there's tremendous uncertainty about the long-term because you're so early in the curve and the exponential effects dominate. Still, an 'eyeball' fit suggests the object count should grow to at least 1,000,000 billion (1.0E+15) and not start to roll off (stabilize) before 2024. I interpret that as a lower bound, and that growth could run much longer, and reach much higher numbers. It implies doubling or more every year for at least the next 10 years. 2+ trillion objects Q4 2012, 5.6 trillion in 2013. Seems like a herculean infrastructure challenge. Is it even possible relative to world-wide disk drive production?
"Two years ago NOSQL was a niche and contrarian hacker movement. Today it's established in the web world. Two years from now it will be broadly adopted across the enterprise." ...Since adoption rates are the same in the enterprise as they are in the web development world. (Irony)
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Jan 9, 2012