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Cool, Larry, thanks so much.
Toggle Commented Oct 29, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
There was a bunch of live and archived video last year and my understanding is that they were planning on expanding that this year. Probably it's just too early. I too have been working through the abstracts and AFAICT there's tons more cryosphere material than last year. For one such topic (I forget which one exactly) there are seven poster sessions, and I don't recall seeing more than four before. Even if I limit myself to sea ice past present and future, which I won't because the ice sheets and circulation changes are more interesting and more important, there's a vast amount of material, so it's clear I'll have a hard time covering things. I'd also like to do a few full-up interviews of scientists, mainly focused on where they think things are headed. Once I can confirm who's actually going to be present and is willing to be interviewed, perhaps we can develop questions on the blog. I'm starting to get the feeling I may not be able to actually write much during the conference other than daily updates of the high points, but as it's a slow time of year for ASIB it seems like it should be fine to string out the posts over a couple weeks. A-Team, if you do show up hopefully you can uncloak long enough to say hello. Your secret identity is safe with me. :)
Toggle Commented Oct 29, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
I'm pretty sure that what they mean is blog posts analyzing breaking science news, which obviously won't be a problem to demonstrate. I suspect the purpose of this requirement is to exclude aggregators. I'll email you later. Thanks much to both for the compliments!
Toggle Commented Oct 28, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Neven, I am possibly willing to attend the AGU fall meeting and write posts on the sea ice-related material if the blog meets the qualifications, and of course if you're willing. These are the science blogger requirements (from this page): "Includes writers for recognized, editorially-independent blogs that have been in existence for at least one year, have a readership of at least 3,000 unique visitors or sessions per month, and regularly produce original news content in the Earth and space sciences. Blogs should have editorial freedom from advertising sponsors and sponsors must be clearly identified. Corporate-owned blogs and personal blogs are ineligible for press credentials. "Must present evidence of three (3) bylined news posts in the Earth and space sciences in the past year and a screen shot of blog analytics covering the period of the past year (i.e. Sept. 2013 – Sept. 2014) showing the number of unique visitors or users per month. (Click here for an example.) AGU’s Public Information Office may, on a case-by-case basis, weigh a bloggers’ social media following in determining eligibility for registration." On the plus side I think I'm up enough on the science to know what sessions to prioritize and which questions to ask, plus I wouldn't have any expenses since I'm local. On the minus side I'd be blowing an entire week on this, which is why I'm a little hesitant. I've also never written posts as such, although plenty of long comments. But on the whole I'm sure it would be an interesting experience. Let me know what you think.
Toggle Commented Oct 28, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
"Recovery" is true, Neven? Also, that first link (all I bothered to look at) doesn't seem to support JC's claim.
Toggle Commented Sep 5, 2014 on Ever sailed to 85N? at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks, Wayne and John. I took a minute to eyeball the recent progress of the bite toward the pole, and at this rate it would be there within a couple of weeks. On the one hand that seems strange for so late in the season at that latitude, but on the other hand that warm water probably isn't bothered much by slightly freezing temperatures. IIRC the bite has not been seen to do this before. It 2012 it got to only about 80N at minimum. A bite as such wasn't even apparent at that point, but that may be because the sides had all melted back as well. This behavior seems very striking to me. Could it be an indication of a lot more warm water entering the Arctic, at least in that region? With enough of that, weather unfavorable to melt will cease to matter much.
Toggle Commented Aug 22, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
Just to note that per Bremen the Laptev bite has now crossed 85N and AFAICT doesn't seem to be slowing down much.
Toggle Commented Aug 22, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
"I've argued recently that we're at an inflection in winter volume because first year ice growth is taking over from multi-year ice volume loss." There's been a long-standing argument that some degree of inflection in loss is to be expected simply because ice at higher latitudes is easier to form and harder to melt. Given that the mobility of sea ice points to the inevitability of big multi-year losses once substantial ice-free areas encroached on the central basin, your formulation seems to be a different way of saying the same thing.
Toggle Commented Aug 2, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 6: slow times at Arctic Sea Ice
A pause? Srsly? Based on that graph? You're a fraud or deranged, Osty.
Toggle Commented Jul 26, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
This is very interesting indeed. Collapsed pingo or not, I've never heard of such a thing before. It's located in the Yamal Peninsula, which IIRC is not part of the yedoma region since it has some history of glaciation, and as the report says there'a lot of gas there that could have had something to do with this event.
Toggle Commented Jul 17, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
The thing to remember about soot in the Arctic is that the effect of any increase will be sharply limited by fresh snowfall. If the snowfall is reduced, though...
Toggle Commented Jul 17, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
Bob, how extensive are peat deposits within the boreal forest? Landscape type conversion isn't a small concern, BTW. If I had to point to one thing, it would probably have to be ocean acidification, although that priority may change once the yedoma melts and dries out enough to burn extensively. Rainforest loss and conversion to savanna (with fire a big factor) is probably third on my list. Loss of the boreal forests might be fourth based on present evidence, but there are some other possibilities, in particular loss of shallow Arctic methane clathrates. All of that said, Indian monsoon failure and Chinese desertification would be huge geopolitically although arguably small relative to the global climate system.
Toggle Commented Jul 17, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
Yesterday a location in BC got over 40C and 35C+ temps were registered in the NWT, this because of the current wacky jet. I'm starting to wonder about short-term fire-induced landscape type conversion of the boreal forest. Conversion to what, though?
Toggle Commented Jul 16, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
Please to fix that first tag. TIA.
Toggle Commented Jul 16, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
ICYMI, two recent expert reports from the NAS that just came to my attention: The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions Linkages Between Arctic Warming and Mid-Latitude Weather Patterns, Summary of a Workshop These contain lots of material of interest to readers here.
Toggle Commented Jul 16, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
That was a typo, sorry. The 65 meters on a side is correct for 300,000 cubic meters. That is a vanishingly tiny volume, orders of order of magnitude smaller than what would be needed for a significant effect. "even an artificial anomaly of 1/10th of that would create a significant buoyance differential on the surface, causing a downwelling." Math for this? I find it more than a little ironic that you're asking me. And on a hot, sunny day in that region, how much does surface salinity increase due to evaporation? Also, if the seeding works to any degree, there will be extra fresh water running off into the sea in the same area, right?
Toggle Commented Jun 16, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim, enough open water to the NP for a jet ski to manage? Maybe. Successfully? Not so much.
Yes, although significantly is an understatement since 3000 cubic meters is only about 65 cubic meters on a side. The ocean is a large place. Re the cloud seeding effect, remember that, in addition to the point I made above about the effect probably being pretty local, this is the warm pool. Water is relatively shallow in most places, the thermocline is deep and ongoing evaporation from the surface is massive. The whole idea fails the smell test, IOW.
Toggle Commented Jun 15, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice
jai, 20 tonnes of salt has to be entirely inconsequential, the reason for which you should be able to work out for yourself. Re the cloud seeding, I would like to see a plausible physical rationale that it even has the potential to result in significantly more heat being forced into the ocean. Remember that when it rains in one location there's another, probably quite close in time and space, in which it doesn't.
Toggle Commented Jun 14, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice
Although the AMOC has been slowing of late. I don't understand the current system well enough to know what relationship that has with the overall transport of warmer water into the Arctic, although presumably some. Interesting times.
Toggle Commented Jun 12, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice
Just to note that the Svalbard sea ice paper press release CB linked to concludes "more advanced climate models coupled with observations are needed" to get a handle on the behavior of the currents warming the Arctic. Put another way, there's presently no means of projecting future behavior of these currents, although with continued expansion of the tropics (a fundamental consequence of warming that... wait for it... the models can't get right) "more of that" seems like a safe bet.
Toggle Commented Jun 12, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice
Good article overall, except for the confidence placed in the time needed for the GIS to undergo major loss. So many recent results have upended the ice sheet models that it's going to take years to catch up. Recall, e.g., that the warmer water encroaching on the marine-based ice sheets was not predicted by the models. As a general matter, the models haven't been able to manage the polar warming we *know* from paleoclimate research (e.g. Lake E sediment pollen and the Pliocene megafauna on Ellesmere Island) occurred the last time CO2 levels were in the present range. What else have they missed? Someone should do a timeline of the scientific understanding of ice sheet response to warming, recalling that no more than 15 years ago the general assumption was that even the marine-based ice sheets would respond very slowly. Lots of glaciologists seem still stuck in that paradigm. Anyway, I suspect the graph would take on the shape of a familiar sporting implement.
Toggle Commented Jun 12, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice
ARkStorms actually have about a 75-year return period, Jai. We are quite overdue, except it's unknown to what degree climate change may have affected the likelihood of these events.
Toggle Commented Jun 10, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice
OK, the forum photo shows the current calving front position already very close to last September's minimum, and so well past its position in June of earlier years indicated by A-Team's graph, which answers my question, so thanks to both. But A-Team, if I'm interpreting your graph correctly, it looks as if this year has already seen a distinct acceleration. Eyeballing, I would put this year's first early June (magenta) dots more or less where the m's are in "summer." Does that seem right to you? Plus, every past year, even 2010, looks to have had a significant amount of further loss beyond early June, such that 2014 seems almost guaranteed to set a substantial new minimum record. Now I stick my neck out: Averaging the retreat beyond early June for all years and adding that to the current position gives a new minimum point (I place it more or less above the 1 in "2013") such that, if a curve is plotted using the minima of all six years (yes, six, count 'em, six whole data points -- I'm aware of my problem here), it forms a smoothish curve that's starting to bend to the right pretty sharply. Not quite a hockey stick, but maybe one is on the way. Interesting times.
Just re-read all of the foregoing and I still have no sense of how unusual this event might be. Size aside, is the calving front even at record retreat for the date? Sometimes this site resembles a weather blog more than is helpful, IMO.