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Steve Bloom
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A pause? Srsly? Based on that graph? You're a fraud or deranged, Osty.
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
This is very interesting indeed. Collapsed pingo or not, I've never heard of such a thing before. It's located in the Yamal Peninsula, which IIRC is not part of the yedoma region since it has some history of glaciation, and as the report says there'a lot of gas there that could have had something to do with this event.
Toggle Commented Jul 17, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
The thing to remember about soot in the Arctic is that the effect of any increase will be sharply limited by fresh snowfall. If the snowfall is reduced, though...
Toggle Commented Jul 17, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
Bob, how extensive are peat deposits within the boreal forest? Landscape type conversion isn't a small concern, BTW. If I had to point to one thing, it would probably have to be ocean acidification, although that priority may change once the yedoma melts and dries out enough to burn extensively. Rainforest loss and conversion to savanna (with fire a big factor) is probably third on my list. Loss of the boreal forests might be fourth based on present evidence, but there are some other possibilities, in particular loss of shallow Arctic methane clathrates. All of that said, Indian monsoon failure and Chinese desertification would be huge geopolitically although arguably small relative to the global climate system.
Toggle Commented Jul 17, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
Yesterday a location in BC got over 40C and 35C+ temps were registered in the NWT, this because of the current wacky jet. I'm starting to wonder about short-term fire-induced landscape type conversion of the boreal forest. Conversion to what, though?
Toggle Commented Jul 16, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
Please to fix that first tag. TIA.
Toggle Commented Jul 16, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
ICYMI, two recent expert reports from the NAS that just came to my attention: The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions Linkages Between Arctic Warming and Mid-Latitude Weather Patterns, Summary of a Workshop These contain lots of material of interest to readers here.
Toggle Commented Jul 16, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
That was a typo, sorry. The 65 meters on a side is correct for 300,000 cubic meters. That is a vanishingly tiny volume, orders of order of magnitude smaller than what would be needed for a significant effect. "even an artificial anomaly of 1/10th of that would create a significant buoyance differential on the surface, causing a downwelling." Math for this? I find it more than a little ironic that you're asking me. And on a hot, sunny day in that region, how much does surface salinity increase due to evaporation? Also, if the seeding works to any degree, there will be extra fresh water running off into the sea in the same area, right?
Toggle Commented Jun 16, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim, enough open water to the NP for a jet ski to manage? Maybe. Successfully? Not so much.
Yes, although significantly is an understatement since 3000 cubic meters is only about 65 cubic meters on a side. The ocean is a large place. Re the cloud seeding effect, remember that, in addition to the point I made above about the effect probably being pretty local, this is the warm pool. Water is relatively shallow in most places, the thermocline is deep and ongoing evaporation from the surface is massive. The whole idea fails the smell test, IOW.
Toggle Commented Jun 15, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice
jai, 20 tonnes of salt has to be entirely inconsequential, the reason for which you should be able to work out for yourself. Re the cloud seeding, I would like to see a plausible physical rationale that it even has the potential to result in significantly more heat being forced into the ocean. Remember that when it rains in one location there's another, probably quite close in time and space, in which it doesn't.
Toggle Commented Jun 14, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice
Although the AMOC has been slowing of late. I don't understand the current system well enough to know what relationship that has with the overall transport of warmer water into the Arctic, although presumably some. Interesting times.
Toggle Commented Jun 12, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice
Just to note that the Svalbard sea ice paper press release CB linked to concludes "more advanced climate models coupled with observations are needed" to get a handle on the behavior of the currents warming the Arctic. Put another way, there's presently no means of projecting future behavior of these currents, although with continued expansion of the tropics (a fundamental consequence of warming that... wait for it... the models can't get right) "more of that" seems like a safe bet.
Toggle Commented Jun 12, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice
Good article overall, except for the confidence placed in the time needed for the GIS to undergo major loss. So many recent results have upended the ice sheet models that it's going to take years to catch up. Recall, e.g., that the warmer water encroaching on the marine-based ice sheets was not predicted by the models. As a general matter, the models haven't been able to manage the polar warming we *know* from paleoclimate research (e.g. Lake E sediment pollen and the Pliocene megafauna on Ellesmere Island) occurred the last time CO2 levels were in the present range. What else have they missed? Someone should do a timeline of the scientific understanding of ice sheet response to warming, recalling that no more than 15 years ago the general assumption was that even the marine-based ice sheets would respond very slowly. Lots of glaciologists seem still stuck in that paradigm. Anyway, I suspect the graph would take on the shape of a familiar sporting implement.
Toggle Commented Jun 12, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice
ARkStorms actually have about a 75-year return period, Jai. We are quite overdue, except it's unknown to what degree climate change may have affected the likelihood of these events.
Toggle Commented Jun 10, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice
OK, the forum photo shows the current calving front position already very close to last September's minimum, and so well past its position in June of earlier years indicated by A-Team's graph, which answers my question, so thanks to both. But A-Team, if I'm interpreting your graph correctly, it looks as if this year has already seen a distinct acceleration. Eyeballing, I would put this year's first early June (magenta) dots more or less where the m's are in "summer." Does that seem right to you? Plus, every past year, even 2010, looks to have had a significant amount of further loss beyond early June, such that 2014 seems almost guaranteed to set a substantial new minimum record. Now I stick my neck out: Averaging the retreat beyond early June for all years and adding that to the current position gives a new minimum point (I place it more or less above the 1 in "2013") such that, if a curve is plotted using the minima of all six years (yes, six, count 'em, six whole data points -- I'm aware of my problem here), it forms a smoothish curve that's starting to bend to the right pretty sharply. Not quite a hockey stick, but maybe one is on the way. Interesting times.
Just re-read all of the foregoing and I still have no sense of how unusual this event might be. Size aside, is the calving front even at record retreat for the date? Sometimes this site resembles a weather blog more than is helpful, IMO.
Espen, what's the actual retreat distance along the centerline, and how does that compare to the 2010 event?
Agreed, SH. Maybe Neven should add a general category for conspiracy theorizing? The WWII/nuclear testing stuff are long-refuted denialist memes, and it's most unfortunate to see them tolerated here.
Toggle Commented May 31, 2014 on Greenland 2013 in review at Arctic Sea Ice
"things look much too sudden and dramatic to be from natural causes" You need to re-scale your physical intuition, Jai. 'ware the ornery beast.
Toggle Commented May 31, 2014 on Greenland 2013 in review at Arctic Sea Ice
"I remember talking about the effect of ice melt on weather/jet stream almost a decade ago when I worked in the Western Australian Office of Climate Change" Out of curiosity, was this talk cued by Lisa Sloan's paper?
Toggle Commented May 31, 2014 on Greenland 2013 in review at Arctic Sea Ice
Bob, IMO that wave study you linked provides a mechanism for an abrupt dispersal and melt of the remaining ice, pretty much any year now. Perhaps this is what Wadhams had in mind when he predicted that the first ice-free (or effectively so) event would be sudden.
Toggle Commented May 2, 2014 on Getting ready at Arctic Sea Ice
The house looks good, Neven! Just a few more months now, in the nick of time to keep you from being distracted from peak Arctic sea ice melt. :)
Toggle Commented Apr 29, 2014 on Getting ready at Arctic Sea Ice
This new open-access paper in Climate Dynamics will be of interest to many here (title/abstract): Recent climate variation in the Bering and Chukchi Seas and its linkages to large-scale circulation in the Pacific The thermal state of the Bering Sea exhibits interdecadal variations, with distinct changes occurred in 1997–1998. After the unusual thermal condition of the Bering Sea in 1997–1998, we found that the recent climate variability (1999–2010) in the Bering Sea is closely related to Pacific basin-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. Specifically, warming in the Bering and Chukchi Seas in this period involves sea ice reduction and stronger oceanic heat flux to the atmosphere in winter. The atmospheric response to the recent warming in the Bering and Chukchi Seas resembles the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) pattern. Further analysis reveals that the recent climate variability in the Bering and Chukchi Seas has strong covariability with large-scale climate modes in the Pacific, that is, the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation and the central Pacific El Niño. In this study, physical connections among the recent climate variations in the Bering and Chukchi Seas, the NPO pattern and the Pacific large-scale climate patterns are investigated via cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function analysis. An additional model experiment using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmospheric Model, version 3, is conducted to support the robustness of the results.
Toggle Commented Apr 29, 2014 on Getting ready at Arctic Sea Ice
Right, Bob, and not only that one but several other very recent papers pointing in the same direction. This is on top of the still-recent overturning of the old slow-melt paradigm ~5 years back. Under natural conditions, the quick massive melt we're facing is nearly impossible because the warming is nowhere near as fast. I say nearly since all of this should be seen in the context of what is probably the only paleo-analog, the PETM, as described in DeConto et al. (2012). Probably we don't have as much permafrost as Paleocene Antarctica, but even so enough for a weaker repetition of the same type of event.
Toggle Commented Apr 29, 2014 on Getting ready at Arctic Sea Ice