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Sumitro Sarkar

Interests: Applying quantitative techniques in healthcare, sports and other unrelated fields...

Recent Activity

EURO 2016: How can we predict wins?

What determines the probability to win a game? Yellow Cards, Shots at Goal and Attack from the Right-side of the offense Here is the analysis: The Adjusted R-squared is not significantly high (considering the small amount of data) . However, it is still high enough to conclude that the independent... Continue reading

Posted Jun 19, 2016 at Sports Math, Healthcare, Economics etc.

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EURO 2016: Are Teams More Vulnerable or Opportunistic at certain times of the game?

Here is a quick (not very accurate - small R-Sq, due to small sample) analysis on probability of a goal being scored at a certain minute in a game. So what does it tell us? some teams are more opportunistic/vulnerable just before and after the half-time, and close to the... Continue reading

Posted Jun 16, 2016 at Sports Math, Healthcare, Economics etc.

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NY Giants - No luck so far...

For tomorrow's season opener for the Giants, Cowboys seem to be the favorites per 2014-15 data and analysis. Data Using the same regression equation from SuperBowl 2015, the projections are as follows: Dallas Cowboys have 69% chance of winning this game compared to the Giants with only 43% probability of... Continue reading

Posted Sep 12, 2015 at Sports Math, Healthcare, Economics etc.

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Unbundling Healthcare - Will it Work?

On July 2014, there were approximately 40 million uninsured Americans. HHS.gov data shows an increase of 5.2% in gaining insurance. Enrollment to the Health Insurance Marketplace totaled approximately 8 million in May, 2014. Out of which 2.6 million signed up on the state-based, and over 5.4 million, on the federally-facilitated... Continue reading

Posted Feb 18, 2015 at Sports Math, Healthcare, Economics etc.

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NFL Arbitrage & SuperBowl Projections

Since the beginning of the season I have been trying to analyze various factors determining wins/losses. Some of my key findings are as follows: First Downs are key offense indicators of touchdown projections The ability to throw a 40+ yard pass is another key determinant of touchdowns The net Q3-Q4... Continue reading

Posted Jan 26, 2015 at Sports Math, Healthcare, Economics etc.

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NFL - Seahawks Prove the Q3-Q4 Rule

Earlier in the season I had analyzed the net Q3-Q4 scores to determine the winner of the game. This season throughout the playoffs, the ruel seems to be working to project the winner. Last week's games Ravens versus Patriots. Winner: Patriots with a net Q3-Q4 score difference of 11 Panthers... Continue reading

Posted Jan 18, 2015 at Sports Math, Healthcare, Economics etc.

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NFL Divisional Playoff Forecasts

Using the same factors (net Q3-Q4 score differential and 1st downs) as I discussed in my earlier posts towards the beginning of the season here are the forecasts for this weeks divisional playoffs. Seattle still seems like the hot favorites for their next SuperBowl title. Divisional Playoff Projections SuperBowl Projections... Continue reading

Posted Jan 9, 2015 at Sports Math, Healthcare, Economics etc.

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NFL Wildcard Projections: How did I do?

My previous post made projections on the wildcard winners. Here is a summary of how I did. It seems that if the Net Q3-Q4 scores difference between the two teams is less than a certain number (seems like 1.0) then the team with the higher 1st downs per game has... Continue reading

Posted Jan 5, 2015 at Sports Math, Healthcare, Economics etc.

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Wild Card Projections

Over the last several weeks, I have been sharing my conclusions and analysis from the 2013 data, and validating against the 2014 regular season. I identified that Q3-Q3 net score differential is the most critical indicator of a winning team. Based on that analysis, here are the projections for this... Continue reading

Posted Jan 3, 2015 at Sports Math, Healthcare, Economics etc.

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NFL: Home Team Advantage Statistics

Carrying on to explore the "Home Field Advantage", here is some simple statistics that show there is no significant advantage. Analysis I took the home win percentage for all the 32 teams and created a probabilistic distribution (see below) The following charts show the probability and cummulative probability for the... Continue reading

Posted Oct 6, 2014 at Sports Math, Healthcare, Economics etc.

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NFL: Is home team advantage a myth?

There is a strong opinion among fans and sports analysts that there is something called a "Home Team Advantage" where the home team has a higher probability to win on the home court/field. In this post I start by analyzing if weather/climatic conditions have an impact on the home team's... Continue reading

Posted Oct 4, 2014 at Sports Math, Healthcare, Economics etc.

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Net Positive Q3-Q4 Score Differential: Ticket to Playoffs?

NY Giants fail...others move on In my recent posts I analyzed some very interesting facts about statistics that determine wins. I identified: Net Q3/Q4 Score Difference (the score difference in the second half of the game) Number of 1st Downs as the two most critical factors that determine a WIN.... Continue reading

Posted Sep 28, 2014 at Sports Math, Healthcare, Economics etc.

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Ist Down: Pass or Rush

Since the NFL season opening, I have tried to establish factors that determine good QBs over not so good ones, and what factors determine WINS. The more I see this, it becomes clearly evident that "1st Down is King". 1st down is analogous to cash in a free cash flow... Continue reading

Posted Sep 25, 2014 at Sports Math, Healthcare, Economics etc.

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Net 4th Qtr Score Difference is key to Winning...

After analyzing the root characteristics of successful QBs, I tried to analyze the probability of Wins given scoring patterns for a team. The gist of this post revolves around a quarter-by-quarter point difference analysis for each team in 2013 regular season. I attempt to analyze patterns between wins and quarterly... Continue reading

Posted Sep 22, 2014 at Sports Math, Healthcare, Economics etc.

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