The more you cherish your business, the more likely you are to be freaked out about the danger of saying the wrong thing. But you have to get over it, because you are just undermining the foundation of your marketing. The more is written about your business, the less important any single piece of content becomes. Are you going to write it? Are you going to hire someone who is a better writer? Or you going to let your competitors and detractors get ahead of you? WebInkNow: Building inbound marketing assets, not expenses, 2013-May-16, by David Meerman Scott Thinking of... Continue reading

Often, prejudicial thinking falls under the "Sin of Representativeness." We estimate the probability of success based on whether someone looks like a winner. How can you avoid prejudicial hiring? We are naturally drawn to likeable candidates that fit our expectations. Daniel Kahneman: Thinking, Fast and Slow: You surely understand in principle that worthless information should not be treated differently from a complete lack of information, but WYSIATI [the biased belief that you see is all there is] makes it very difficult to apply that principle. Unless you decide immedidately to reject evidence for example, by determining that you recieved it... Continue reading

This morning I'm blogging without having anything to say. That's because I've been so busy that I haven't had time to collect ideas. I've been trying to hold onto my routines, but searching doesn't always lead to finding. I've been re-reading Peter Bregman's 18 Minutes: Find your Focus..., which is better than that kitschy title suggests. I'm pretty sure I've been focusing on the most important things but I just cannot get over the desire to do more. I regret too much that I can't find enough time. It's just not fair. I could be so awesome if I had... Continue reading

Such a big part of being a good entrepreneur and/or being a good marketer is about objectively evaluating risk. Most of the public discourse about availability cascades focuses on the use of public funds, but private funds can be used imprudently as well. The correct management of risk is to recognize both the probability of the outcomes and the magnitude of those outcomes. So a sufficiently bad outcome can overpower a low probability and generate a high risk. Plus, correct risk calculation includes factoring in good outcomes as well as bad outcomes. But if the bad outcome is fresh in... Continue reading

I'm a big fan of listening, but make sure you're listening to the right things. Often, the most important things go unsaid. We can over-react to customer feedback, "always oiling the squeaky wheels," as Larry Freed says below. In my current job, the benefit my company provides is installing systems, and customers constantly complain that we're hard to work with. Well, yes, it's inconvenient to put in a new system, but that doesn't mean they are not getting great value for the investment. Harvard Business Review Blog: Are You Listening to your Most Important Customers?, 2013-Apr-17, by Larry Freed Measuring... Continue reading

Daniel Kahneman says the biggest hurdle to eliminating "availability bias" is that it requires a tireseome amount of effort. You have to second-guess yourself all the time. But if you make the effort, you may improve your quality of life. Don't avoid that short cut just because your car had a flat there yesterday. Don't stop reading an author because you didn't like the last book. Avoid the "I tried that once and it didn't work" fallacy. If it works for others, why shouldn't it work for you? Dig down to reality. Don't rely on your poor memory for statistical... Continue reading

As someone who's suffered job discrimination and terrible management, the news that researchers are studying which factors actually lead to better job performance is great news. Certain jobs may be off-limits to me because the data shows I won't be good at them, and as long as the science is sound, I'm okay with it. Of course, there will be abuses, but it's not like they're breaking a system that currently works well. NY Times: Big Data Trying to Build Better Workers, 2013-Apr-20, by Steve Lohr In the past, studies of worker behavior were typically based on observing a few... Continue reading

An anchor is a piece of irrelevant data which influences decisions. Research has shown that once a person has been exposed to an anchor, avoiding the influence of that anchor is nearly impossible. Although sellers often use asking-price anchors to manipulate people, they are pretty much trapped if the buyer demands one. Check out the J.C. Penney story. NY Times: Sometimes, We Want Prices to Fool Us, 2013-Apr-14, by Stephanie Clifford and Catherine Rampell Consumers infer that they get a great deal based on the reference point provided by the higher, presale price. Social scientists refer to this idea as... Continue reading

One of the most common errors in my profession is making a decision based on a small sample, a too-small sample. So how do we know if the sample is too small? We can make the decision rationally, like a scientist, using System 2 thinking. Or we can go with our gut, which says no sample is too small. Any data is better than no data. Fortunes have been lost with that kind of thinking. Small samples are naturally more extreme than large samples. (Kahneman refers to this as the Law of Small Numbers.) Bad data is all around us.... Continue reading

While I'm not fond of Starbucks coffee, I do admire the Starbucks brand. (Overheard while walking the Freedom Trail in Boston last week: "I have to walk all this way with you and there won't even be a Starbucks.") Increasing evidence shows that it's not the products that we acquire but the experiences we acquire which make our lives worthwhile. So I think about this matter when planning my next computer. The Mac Air is really tempting, but my loyal dollars will produce better experiences with a Sony. Huffington Post: Starbucks Brand Loyalty Keeps It Ahead Of The Artisanal Coffee... Continue reading

When I think about all the things I'd like to accomplish, I remember that the first thing I have to do is change my story. I just dug out my copy of Change Anything again, and the first step is to write yourself a good story, one that makes such good sense that you can't help but tell it completely and quickly. WebInkNow: Effective storytelling for business, 2013-Feb-18, by David Meerman Scott Instead of "creating copy", think about sitting in a restaurant with friends and explaining a little about your work to them. How would you say it? How would... Continue reading

The rise of smart phones really knocked the email newsletter on its ear. We had all gotten used to having elaborate graphics, which arose from a real desire for beauty, at least on my part. But now the graphics in an email need to be completely justified. In a way, it has made my life easier. I'll miss gorgeous multi-column layouts like you see at Dexigner.com. However, the rise of the simple solution is a good thing. Fewer words, fewer pictures... make them count. Campaign Monitor: Should email be 99.9% typography, too? 2013-Feb-13, by Ros Hodgekiss ...while multi-column layouts can... Continue reading

While our System 2 mind works intentionally to find the correct or best answer, our System 1 mind is constantly assessing the environment, looking for threats, cues, and change. System 1 doesn't have any intention and no agenda other than awareness. It's impossible to not know what System 1 thinks about your environment. It supports your well-being by looking for danger, putting things into categories, and looking for causality. It's good at calculating averages because it's tuned to detect normality. However, it doesn't always do a good job of adding things up. (Think about it next time you leave the... Continue reading

As Daniel Kahneman explains in Thinking, Fast and Slow, our brain is "a machine for jumping to conclusions." We derive many benefits from this fact. "Snap judgments are usually reliable and always efficient." We need to understand the hazards, and when we feel the urge to jump, try to PAUSE. When the situation is unfamiliar, when the stakes and high, and when we feel confident that we've nothing more to learn, we should check our decision for these dangers: Are we ignoring ambiguity and suppressing doubts? If evidence is capable of two or more interpretations, System 1 will select the... Continue reading

If you enjoy being creative, as I do, then you seek out a safe, comfortable environment where your creativity can thrive. But when you're in that environment, you are also at your most gullible. I used to have a Joan Rivers quote on my wall that said "Run scared... and they never catch you." When we're in our comfort zone, our associative machinery is running in high gear and we're subject to cognitive illusions. An idea which seems true may only be 'truthy.' Ideas to which we've been frequently exposed seem clear and safe, and all other things being equal,... Continue reading

We are really saved from ourselves by our curiosity. If you think you understand something, it's time to learn more about it. Because the mind is an associative machine, and it takes whatever you've learned so far and constructs a story that make sense. Whether or not you have really dug deep and learned what you need to know. In trying to help you understand the past so you can prepare for the future, the 'fast-thinking' mind seeks coherence NOT truth. Truth comes from the slow, hard process of thinking more deeply and questioning what you know. For me, the... Continue reading

In the midst of the culture wars that seem ready to tear our world apart, I like to remember that some people value culture because they believe we have something to learn from each other. The Guardian: Review of Jared Diamond book "The World Until Yesterday", 2013-Jan-9 by Wade Davis Far ahead of his time, Franz Boas believed that every distinct social community, every cluster of people distinguished by language or adaptive inclination, was a unique facet of the human legacy and its promise. He became the first scholar to explore in a truly open and neutral manner how human... Continue reading

Our rationality, our motivation to avoid thinking errors, is limited by the availability of self control. And self control is a finite resource, as is our attention. The more of our attention that's directed to self control, the less energy we have available for deliberate thought. A triumph of self control is followed by a state called ego depletion. We instinctively avoid effort and seek relaxation. For me, the way to avoid the sloppy thinking that can occur during ego depletion is to plan for some time to bounce back. Don't expect that you can develop this massive will-power muscle... Continue reading

Daniel Kahneman says his book Thinking Fast and Slow is not prescriptive, but plenty of us are trying to figure out how to improve our decision making since we read the book. In this excellent interview, Kahneman is asked how companies can apply what he's learned. He says one of the most important things a company can do is 'protect the pessimists.' All us optimists know that pessimists do not help us get more done. They slow us down. Right. They slow us down and make us think twice! FORA.tv: Q&A: Economist Daniel Kahneman, the Pioneer of Heuristics, 2012-Oct-14, Interview... Continue reading

They are instead seen as proof that the utopia Mr. Linklater and Mr. Rodriguez first hinted could be — a vibrant Texas filmmaking industry that might serve as a viable alternative to filmmakers who did not want to live on either coast — has come to fruition. To illustrate the... Continue reading

The last thing I need is another blog, but I'm starting this one to keep track of images and stories that help define Houston for me. I doubt I'll do much talking, mostly clipping and pointing. I hope it helps. Photo by Katie Laird on Flickr Continue reading

According to Daniel Kahneman in Thinking Fast and Slow, the two systems in our brain share the use of our attention, but are polar opposites when it comes to using effort. Using System 2 means more than slowing down, it means 'thinking harder.' Kahneman describes System 2 as lazy, which means it has to be kicked into action. I find it easier to think of System 2 as determined to conserve energy. The more you pressure System 2, the more you drain yourself, and one of the most exhausting things is to try and make slow thinking go faster. One... Continue reading

As I was reading Thinking Fast and Slow, my mind spun back to many times I've made bad decisions. In my profession, marketing, every big decision must deal with both complexity and uncertainty. And yet we're make so many decisions based on a hunch, a gut feeling, or a reflex. Our decisions are unfairly influenced by recent events or impressions. These bad decisions are accompanied by a strong sense of confidence because we're using our fast-thinking "System 1" which jumps to conclusions using heuristics, or decision-making short-cuts. With System 1, confidence does not reflect quality, it reflects the strength of... Continue reading

I listen to many of my friends complain about job listings, and my advice is... just pretend they don't exist because they are worthless. Figure out where you want to work... where you want to make a contribution... then network around that target. You may end up working somewhere else, but you'll be better off for the process. Ari on the Internet: College & Beyond: A Lesson in the Job Search, 2012-Dec-31, by Ari Diozon You can scour alI the job boards and classifieds you want. But it's a hell of a lot easier when you know somebody. I got... Continue reading

I like to think. Seriously, it's one of my 'Stengthsfinder' strengths--which means I'm supposed to use it and develop it. But that's not why I'm launching this project, a multi-month discussion of Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow (to be known here as TFS). For me, TFS's biggest revelation was why the marketing profession is so harsh. Outcomes seem random (because they usually are) and justifying your plans absorbs as much time as executing them. TFS author Daniel Kahneman brings together many things I've learned and packages them into a way of seeing the challenges which leads to a way... Continue reading