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It's a relatively simple message wayne. So long as temperatures fall rapidly in the Arctic in winter, then there will be a re-freeze. The more open water there is, then the faster it will freeze at some point in the year. Namely when the cooler weather has extracted enough warmth or where the sea has not warmed sufficiently (just melted), to resist the cold temperatures. Or, where there is significant ice already in the open water. However the planet is getting hotter and it has three heat sinks. Antarctica, the Arctic (including Greenland) and the land based Glaciers. Those heat sinks are shrinking to cool the planet. This cannot go on forever as they are a "scarce resource" which takes thousands or millions of years to generate. Just like the Oil we burn, we are burning our natural air conditioner. However, the other side of the coin is this. Our planet is warming, it is driven by CO2 emissions by humans and, this year, we've left 30x ppm behind forever, as far as the next 100 generations of humans are concerned. Because of that CO2 warming, the Arctic is warming up to 10 times faster than the rest of the planet. This is not good news because this is our planet's air conditioner. Eventually it will reach the point where it no longer cools enough, in winter, to freeze the ice. Of course humanity won't worry too much about that because whatever is left will be too busy surviving the wars that were fought over the diminishing food supplies, required by an ever increasing population. It has all the makings of a Greek Tragedy and all the concern of Nero from the population at large.
Ah P-maker, you are referring to the Biased Broadcasting Corporation... :-) I was on the other side. After 20 years of mainly living and working on the continent, having a home in France and still being a UK citizen, my vote was firmly LEAVE... I didn't need the dysfunctional media to tell me what was true and what was not. However here's the saddest thing for me and, perhaps, it's a message for everyone else in the world. Some of the toughest legislation and strong actions have been brought about by the EU Commission and Council. Undemocratic, virtually impossible to sanction if they do something you don't like, but actually doing the right thing on Climate and not caring what the voters think. Which begs a lot of thought about our current political mechanisms and how they are allowing us to, essentially, destroy ourselves...
Toggle Commented Sep 22, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Just to be clear. I'm not saying it has or has not started to freeze. What I'm saying is that watching the freeze this year will be interesting. Future tense was intended as I still believe we're bouncing around the bottom for a few more days. But in a week, latest two, we'll be seeing the freeze start to take over. My main interest is how long it takes to achieve it.
Toggle Commented Sep 22, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
I was talking about how long it will take for the freeze to spread out of the CAB and into the other regions and, eventually, out towards the pacific. This has been taking longer and longer and this season was quite interesting. It should not have been as bad as it was. Therefore the re-freeze should also be impacted in ways we don't expect. It will be worth watching.
Toggle Commented Sep 22, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
True we are getting off topic a bit. My point was that Arctic ice is on a road to destruction, the only unknown is how many years it will take to get there. Once that destruction has happened the sequestered heat is going to keep it down, initially seasonally, for thousands of years. There is little question about this and nothing being done today is going to change that path. So whilst we watch this re-freezing season and marvel at the impact all that sequestered heat has, we need to keep in the back of our minds that "recovery" is not an option. Any time. Ever. Within human relevant timescales. Whether it is 2017 or 2027 when we see seasonally ice free in the Arctic, it's coming and so long as we throw the CO2 balance even further out of whack there is nothing that is going to change that. Not even a 200 year solar minimum. That's the point I'm making with my somewhat OT direction. So the fantastic melt in a non melt conducive season, the sudden losses of ice in areas deemed resilient, the ever encroaching hurricanes and tropical storms, the El Nino and AO cycles all create more and more impact. Now the Arctic ice is in such a weakened state with so much volume loss that it no longer has the cooling capacity to shelter the arctic from the heat around it. It lost that cooling capacity with the sudden losses of volume at the start of the 21st century. Now we get to view cycles which have not been visible before with our measurement indices. I fully expect that at this time next year we'll be discussing another drastic loss of arctic ice and another record low. I will be surprised if we don't even though we'll have somewhat more winter re-growth with the end of the El Nino and the advance of the solar minimum. Right now we're at the fluctuating end of a torrid melting season, getting ready to go back into freeze. Key will be how long it takes to get back into freeze and how much heat it traps in the ocean when it does. Things to watch in the coming months.
Toggle Commented Sep 22, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
I think there has to be an element of pragmatism here. A few years back there was a lot of talk about how AGW had somehow "stopped" because of the lack of solid temperature rise. Even though there was a lot of 98 cherry picking going on, the rise was not quite so precipitous. A lot of studying later, the answer comes up. 90% of the heat which is held in the planet, each year, is locked in the deep ocean and takes about 30 years to make it into the general environment. So 90% of the 2015 heat will, if the theory is correct, emerge in 2045. When the CO2ppm value will be, at a minimum, 60ppm higher than today and at a worst case 90ppm higher than today. There is no cause for optimism or even hope of a recovery in our lifetimes. All we can do is provide a solid historical record so that whatever is left of our society, 100 years from now, will be able to pass on how not to manage the planet to their descendants. If, as is unlikely, that message survives intact for the next 10,000 years. Of will it just morph into a "Great Flood" story to be carried along by every religion on the planet?
Toggle Commented Sep 20, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Bill, I had a look through the data sets back to the beginning of the satellite record. It seems to be showing a 10 year pattern but hard to work it out without matching all the factors. You'd need to factor in solar cycle strength, Nino strength, AO strength and weather events to try and match it all. Also there is the fact that a cycle might not clearly represent itself given our measuring metrics when there is such a huge differential in actual ice volume and coverage. It could easily be that this cycle was always there but invisible based on the metrics we currently use, but made visible by the sheer lack of ice and the fragility of ice today. I'm sure, 30 years form now, we'll know as much as anyone could know, about how the cycles and how they manifest themselves. The critical point now, as Hans and I believe, is whether 2016 is a main event which just missed (2007/2012), or whether it's the precursor (2006/2011), and whether 2017 is going to be like 2007 or 2012. Because if they cycles Hans and I believe we are seeing are actually there, then we'll see a 2012 style drop next year. Then we can forget about cycles because there won't be enough ice left, in summer, to measure them. Well once the rebound of 18/19 has worked out of the system. The only good part of this is that Hans and I won't need to wait much longer to see the result of what we think we're seeing. Because if it is a 5 year cycle then 2022 is going to be a revelation in terms of loss of ice, duration of the ice free arctic and the delay of the freezing season into the Autumn... Of course if it isn't then we'll know next year.
Toggle Commented Sep 17, 2016 on PIOMAS September 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
On the melt thing I expect the heat to keep bouncing the figures around till the end of next week, or the end of the month, maximum. Then the momentum of the cooling should take over and it's all over for this year. But we've seen the worst of it. That is clear by the way the storm cleared areas started to re-freeze so quickly.
Toggle Commented Sep 15, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
In an environment where fresh water melt had just finished, but the fresh water had not yet mixed, I assume it would be possible for that fresh water to freeze before the salt water around it?? Also, as I understood it, if the heat transfer at the surface of the water was to be extreme (very cold conditions or extreme wind chill), then surely the surface could start to melt if the cooling exceeded the heat transfer potential of the water. For instance if I subject the surface of water to -100c it's going to freeze before the heat from the water column, 20m below, can transfer through to the freezing point? Correct? Yes, if you subject water to -0.5c conditions then it will suck the entire heat out of the column before it freezes because the heat transfer capability of the water column is greater than the 0.5c temperature to freeze the surface water. As I understood it this is not the same for much lower temperatures. Otherwise a static pond would only freeze totally, not on the top....
Toggle Commented Sep 15, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Sorry being dense again. Yep I'm totally in agreement. If we see a huge melt event in 2017, followed by a bounce back in 2018 (most likely, it seems to be doing that now); we're seeing a pattern. Albeit an early one.
Toggle Commented Sep 14, 2016 on PIOMAS September 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hans I think we were trying to establish that events prior to 2005 are different to events post 2005. Post 2005 we see the cycle of large loss and re-growth typical of the 5 year cycles since. As I see 2016 as being the same as 2006/2011, we would need to see 2017 and 2018 before that graph would start to match. I see little benefit in trying to match 2016 with 2007 or 2012, clearly it was like neither year and it only saw such huge losses because of the extreme SST values and lack of ice. 2017 should be a very different animal leading to interesting results. I'm more interested in when the heat trapped by the rapid onset of re-growth asserts itself towards the end of the month. Should produce some interesting phenomena. Or not, I don't know quite enough about what is happening on the ground/sea surface, right now, to guess.
Toggle Commented Sep 13, 2016 on PIOMAS September 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
RIP Andrew. I did a search and could not find anything. Seems to be private. It is sad to see one of the younger generation who is doing such good work to be lost so young. I feel for his family.
Toggle Commented Sep 13, 2016 on PIOMAS September 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
DMI 80N temperatures have now dropped below salt water freezing levels and the Bremen AMSR2 concentration is starting to show the NP and immediate area starting to close up after being ripped apart by the storms. Any huge drop will come from the periphery and, as we've seen, some of that is more resilient than was expected. I don't expect any major surprises unless it turns up as a huge polynya on the Atlantic side of the pole amongst the ice there. All that heat has to go somewhere after all.
Toggle Commented Aug 25, 2016 on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 3 at Arctic Sea Ice
"List me just one single comment from anyone on this blog, who in May or June had the right map and said we should anticipate cyclonic weather over the summer. " John, I tend to post that kind of stuff on the forum. But what do you think??,1493.msg75686.html#msg75686 May 5th. "Still I'm waiting for it to stall",1493.msg76912.html#msg76912 May 16th "It's all getting a bit rapid isn't it? Although I note that Barrow has stopped melting in it's tracks with the cold and the ice crush on the coast... Elsewhere though, very interesting.",1493.msg78246.html#msg78246 May 27th "At the risk of sticking my neck out to have my head chopped off, there are a lot of similarities I see with other seasons. Large ice loss the year before, warm winter leading to very early melt. Followed by a stall in June and a race to catch up and finish in July and August. Never quite making it.",1493.msg79711.html#msg79711 June 9th "All it takes, later in the season, is cloud and cold and the sea could be right back to normal. Yes, the ice will be seriously damaged and weakened. But it will pull back the pace of the melt.",1493.msg81156.html#msg81156 June 23rd "So whilst the storms and the heat transport from the south will have a heavy impact, especially in volume with bottom melting, the final coup de grace will be by the sun and the sun has been heavily masked this year in the CAB."
Toggle Commented Aug 24, 2016 on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
I'm not changing my base assumption on this. The GAC in 2012 was the last great event of a huge melting season pre-conditioned by the losses in volume in 2010/11. 2016 is not in that class. This storm is a final act of a weak melting season which had a flying start but never evolved. Also the pre-conditioning of 2015 is not enough to give the storm enough easy ice to "vanish". Well that's the way I see it. I see it this way. 2006 was this kind of year, it drove the 2007 season and had an impact but not a huge one at the time. 2011 was another one which had an even bigger impact but was, in the end, only a feeder for 2012. Post 2012 another 2006 esque event has an even bigger impact. But I haven't changed my position. I still see 2017 as the main event and for that we have to wait. No matter how big the impact of 2016.
Toggle Commented Aug 17, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 5: big cyclone at Arctic Sea Ice
Certainly the cyclone is doing more damage around 80N than the 2012 one did. However the ESS ice seems to be in better condition than it was in 2012. In 2012 it had been looking like smoke on the water for a while and the storm finished all of that up and dealt with the rest. I'm not so sure that will happen this time. However, as I've been saying from May, the Area is likely to be "interesting" when we finish. There are going to be areas of ice missing which have been constantly covered since our satellite records began and that's going to be far more significant than any area or extent records missed or made. The ice going into 2017 is going to be in the worst state that we have seen it since the records began.
Toggle Commented Aug 15, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 5: big cyclone at Arctic Sea Ice
Hans, get your point but my point was slightly different. I see a fuller cycle happening. 5/6/7 followed by the trough 8/9 followed by 10/11/12 followed by the trough 13/14 followed 15/16 and possibly 17 leading into the trough in 18/19.. If you also map it to the solar flux, it seems to come in on the 80 - 120 bracket on the rise and fall of the flux. Not at the bottom and not at the top, but in the change states. I have no idea why, but it is what I see. What interests me most is whether the solar lows, allied to the cycle rebound creates a larger rebound (08/09) as opposed to the smaller rebound on the solar peak (13/14). I guess we have to wait another 3 years for that to all unfold.
Toggle Commented Aug 11, 2016 on PIOMAS August 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven, there can be all the power and momentum in the world. But without focus and direction it is worthless and works against itself. Thank you very much for doing this and giving us a place to talk and share.
Toggle Commented Aug 11, 2016 on 1000 Forum members at Arctic Sea Ice
Hans, It might be worth stretching the line back to 2005.
Toggle Commented Aug 10, 2016 on PIOMAS August 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
I took a very different view, this year, to our annual obsessive view of the charts, the models and the statistics. I took a step back and looked at the woods instead of staring at the trees one by one. My assessment? This melt season looked remarkably like 2006. Not exactly the same, how could it be? We have massively less ice volume and a hugely more vulnerable pack. But the season itself, I predicted, would follow 2006. It's a funny thing but most, not all but most, of the charts on the forum start in 2007. Which really misses a trick. So what was the 2006 season like? Massive heat and early melt in the spring Slow down starting in May and running through June Fairly average melt in July Strong and rapid melt in August And the last part we haven't seen yet. An early stall to the melt in September followed by a very odd event of the polynya in the Beaufort forming, which kept ice conditions variable right up to Sept 18th. However ice re-growth had begun in areas around Sept 12th. So if the season follows 2006 to the bitter end, then we'll see the strong August melt grind to a halt in about 3 weeks time followed by a bit of toing and froing... That will put 2016 somewhere in 3rd to 4th place, I believe, but with massive damage done to the older ice through the decimation zones in the Beaufort and the Beaufort gyre helpfully transporting all that thicker ice into it. To me, that means 2017 should, all things being the same, be pretty close to the black swan event we're all waiting for. Of course I could be wrong, but I've put a monthly post up on the forum every month so far, surmising what it would be like if it followed 2006. So far it has. Time will tell but I'm not expecting anything dramatic, the DMI 80 North temps are firmly heading south towards freezing and I expect them to make it by the end of the month.
Toggle Commented Aug 9, 2016 on PIOMAS August 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
I see Watts and his merry band have remained silent.. Have they finally gone away from SEARCH or do we have to put up with them popping up some time in the future predicting that the climate will turn itself on it's heat through "faith"...
I agree that it was clear what Jim wrote, so long as you were on the same wavelength. However the English, in itself, was open to interpretation. I know Jim meant, I'm not sure the minimum won't be pushed to October. But, without the preamble, it could equally have meant that it happened in August. Anyway that's a level of pedantry we don't need, simple clarification reveals all. Anyway, In May I predicted that the season would run like 2016. Slow melt in June, pick up in July and a sprint finish to the end in August. But, all in context of 2007 - 2016 rather than 1981 - 2006. Which means less volume, weaker thinner ice and more heat in the ocean. Personally I believe weather trumps all and weather has been the major dominant in this season as it was in 2006. If so, then all the heat in the Ocean today won't stop a re-freeze in September if the weather turns against melt, or even simple stasis. Time will tell. I'm still betting on 2017 being the big year like 2007 and 2012.
Toggle Commented Jul 30, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 4: breaking point at Arctic Sea Ice
It's always worthwhile to be careful when talking about Sunspots and solar minimums. Yes, spots drive the flux, but flux is still at around 70, or a little under 1/2 of the maximum this cycle. Also we are still getting coronal holes and geomagnetic storming which we didn't really see between late 2008 and early 2010. Yes there will be an impact but it takes a while to work out the extra heat from the peak solar from what I've seen. Have a look at for more info and some charts. As was said, the Maunder Minimum was notable by it's length. People talked about another Maunder Minimum at the end of cycle 23 but it came to nothing but a slow start to a low cycle. 2012 is much more notable for when it happened in the cycle, the weakness of the cycle and the slowness of the solar cycle start which fed it. On another note I've been saying since early May that this feels like 2006. Let me level set this against what that meant at the time. In 2006, 2005 was the lowest extent on record. It missed and, due to incredibly bad weather in June, came in well behind it. If 2016 followed that track it would be somewhere behind 2007/2011, or maybe ahead depending on what the weather throws at it... As Neven says, never count out the weather in the Arctic, it will always surprise you if you do. Whatever the weather does it's going to be an interesting August because the ice in in a real state compared to 2006.
Toggle Commented Jul 4, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 3: crunch time at Arctic Sea Ice
I like a little bit of history. I love to look back at the graph to see the 2005 Record Low The baseline for melting of 1979 - 2000 And that polynia on Sept 11th was quite interesting. More interesting is the very low start to the year with the extent cross over in early July, compared to the "record low" of the time. I know, scratched record, but as this year evolves it is so much like a replay with post 2012 ice conditions, rather than post 2005 ice conditions. I'm also very close to what Neven believes; which is that MYI is going to be hosed all year. Which I believe will lead to some pretty spectacular events next year.
Toggle Commented Jun 22, 2016 on 2016 melting momentum, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Chris, 06/07 was a weak Nino moving to a moderate Nina in 07/08. I checked. For me it was more the way of the sudden opening followed by the March/April shift in weather patterns and the stubborn refusal for some areas to melt like 2012, even with the heat. It just felt like Deja Vu, I remember watching 2006 very closely because of the sudden and unprecedented melt in 2005 (who even considers that now after 07/12 but at the time it was really a wake up call). So I remember it unfolding and the stall and the hanging around before it started to really melt again late July. I wasn't really checking Nino or other potential causes. I was just remembering. Of course that then led to 2007 where my expectations were low and the end result was pretty shocking for everyone.
Toggle Commented Jun 13, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 2: closing the gap at Arctic Sea Ice