This is NeilT's Typepad Profile.
Join Typepad and start following NeilT's activity
Join Now!
Already a member? Sign In
NeilT
Recent Activity
I like a little bit of history. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2006/ I love to look back at the graph to see the 2005 Record Low The baseline for melting of 1979 - 2000 And that polynia on Sept 11th was quite interesting. More interesting is the very low start to the year with the extent cross over in early July, compared to the "record low" of the time. I know, scratched record, but as this year evolves it is so much like a replay with post 2012 ice conditions, rather than post 2005 ice conditions. I'm also very close to what Neven believes; which is that MYI is going to be hosed all year. Which I believe will lead to some pretty spectacular events next year.
Toggle Commented Jun 22, 2016 on 2016 melting momentum, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Chris, 06/07 was a weak Nino moving to a moderate Nina in 07/08. I checked. For me it was more the way of the sudden opening followed by the March/April shift in weather patterns and the stubborn refusal for some areas to melt like 2012, even with the heat. It just felt like Deja Vu, I remember watching 2006 very closely because of the sudden and unprecedented melt in 2005 (who even considers that now after 07/12 but at the time it was really a wake up call). So I remember it unfolding and the stall and the hanging around before it started to really melt again late July. I wasn't really checking Nino or other potential causes. I was just remembering. Of course that then led to 2007 where my expectations were low and the end result was pretty shocking for everyone.
Toggle Commented Jun 13, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 2: closing the gap at Arctic Sea Ice
"The turn in the weather really has surprised me." I was looking for my comments on the Arctic Sea Ice forum to see when said that I did expect that. I found it on May 5th. Page 18. "Still, I'm waiting for it to stall...." It just felt too much like 2006 all over again with a different ice configuration. Of course time will tell....
Toggle Commented Jun 13, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 2: closing the gap at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Kevin. Yes there is significant heat loss. But there is significantly more heat to lose. This then leads to significant moisture locally in the area which can, with the right weather patterns, impact the onset of winter.. Which can tend to negate the heat loss overall. In the end my contention was that even with the existing heat budget it is enough to finish the job. We don't need to keep pushing CO2 out, the existing CO2 is there and will do the job just fine. However the variability of weather and solar is just enough to keep an unreasonable doubt alive. Which blocks action on further CO2 increases. Those further CO2 increases just mean the difference between 2030 and 2060. The end it not in doubt. Just the timeframe. Also the onset of another all season arctic ice cap will heavily depend on just how much more CO2 we push up there. Really the difference between hundreds and thousands of years.
Toggle Commented Jun 5, 2016 on Crisis in the Cryosphere at Arctic Sea Ice
There is an increasing energy budget and a decreasing amount of ice. As the ice decreases, the extra energy, not required to melt ice (given that half the summer sea ice since the 1950's is gone), goes into making the environment warmer. Which increases ice loss. Naturally weather makes variability because it affects the energy budget. Therefore there are peaks on the decline graph which we see each season as surprises. But, overall, I can't see how the end can be any different. Before ice will stop declining, the energy being input must fall. Not just seasonal weather blocking the input, but a long term fall like a century long maunder minimum. In an environment where solar input is relatively stable and CO2 concentration continues to rise, then I can't see that energy budget falling until CO2 concentration falls unless there is some sudden influx of reflectants, multiple massive Volcano eruptions, continuously, over a 2 year period. This is all without carbon sinks unfreezing, methane releases, soot accelerants in ice loss, land warming due to snow loss, cyclone intrusion and heat transport..... et al. So that's my contention. The heat budget rises and the melting impact of the heat creates a self reinforcing reaction which accelerates the ice loss. So we see a constant heat budget increase but an accelerating loss of ice. In that scenario I cannot see any way that the Arctic won't transition to a seasonally ice free state with the current climate. And let's be clear. We keep on pushing the climate further off the cliff as each year goes by. I'm not saying next year or next decade. I'm just saying it's inevitable with the current climate. We don't need any more to transition it. The fact that I believe it will happen in the next decade rather than in the next 5 decades is just a result of my observations.
Toggle Commented Jun 3, 2016 on Crisis in the Cryosphere at Arctic Sea Ice
"Why not exactly?" Let's have a look at that. Right now we have legacy pack ice which has a minimum size that protects some of the Arctic all year round. That ice is diminishing, year on year and the arctic is heating, year on year. It takes more energy to melt all the ice that is there, than it will take to melt the ice when it is seasonal. The second that the ice goes seasonal, that energy which is currently being used to convert the ice to water will go into heating the seas instead. This will shorten the freezing season and lengthen the melting/warming season. Both of which will increase the heat budget hugely as every year goes by. At the same time CO2 is increasing at an aggregate 2.2ppm per year, decadal average and increasing, decade on decade, by 0.3 to 0.4ppm decadal average growth. So, to reiterate. It's getting warmer The ice is melting Which will make it even warmer and trap even more of that heat CO2 is growing, not falling CO2 is trapping ever more heat In that scenario, when we hit a minimal ice cover, the transition to seasonal ice is going to accelerate rapidly and then the heat which is trapped is going to lock in the seasonal ice situation. The change may be very slow. But the flip over is probably going to be very quick. Back in the 90's I likened what we were doing with CO2 as pushing a huge wheel up a hill. It's uphill all the way and takes huge amounts of energy to get there. Some time you hit the top and things start to really move. Then you start downhill again.... The downhill, as I see it, is the inability of the planet to absorb any more CO2 as it is doing today. At least doubling the growth and the impact. I see absolutely nothing wrong with what Remko said.
Toggle Commented Jun 2, 2016 on Crisis in the Cryosphere at Arctic Sea Ice
Hindsight is a wonderful thing Chris and the usual calculation is probability * criticality of the data stream to customers. In this case the probability was low (but still a real threat) but the criticality of the data stream was even lower. Regardless of what we think. The good thing with computing though, usually, is that any work they have to do to get this back online can be re-used in the event of a future instrument failure. Not much consolation today but there we are.
Toggle Commented Jun 2, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 1: both sides at Arctic Sea Ice
Bill, I've noticed over the years that interesting seasons tend to have instrument breakdowns. Whilst it is irritating as hell and happens more often on "interesting" years than boring years (or is it just that we miss it more?), I wouldn't make the assumption that it's deliberate.. There is more than enough info for the casual watcher, but the lack of detailed graph data is a real pain.... There was a lot of talk at ESOC, when I arrived there, that the Airane5 and Cluster might have been interfered with. In the end it turned out to be a case of poor testing discipline. Not something ESA seem to have learned very well from when I spoke to the team manager who deployed Huygens....
Toggle Commented Jun 1, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 1: both sides at Arctic Sea Ice
No I didn't think it all ridged and slabbed. But I did think quite a lot. Which leaves the younger ice more exposed in water and air without it's snow cover. Whatever happens it's going to be interesting. I was just musing on the changes of the ice dynamics with a thinner, less resistant, pack and how it responds to extreme weather.
Toggle Commented May 29, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 1: both sides at Arctic Sea Ice
My first instinct, on reading your post Chris, was to think that it had to have something else to do with it. Such as anomalously thin FYI is such large amounts that there was ability for the wind to push the MYI somewhere. Reading your post it seems that you also came to that conclusion. That the extreme warmth of the winter season left the FYI in such a weakened state that the constant strong winds found little resistance as they pushed the MYI offshore. Creating, as it would, areas of extremely thick ice. Of course that extremely thick ice would still be FYI which is of higher salt content and therefore more susceptible to rapid melting when the sea warms in the summer. So whilst I agree that the winds are the main driver for the huge area of sea opening up, rather than radical melting, what you don't really address is that the state of the FYI, driven by the extreme winter warmth, was not able to resist the winds. For instance the last time, on your chart, that there were the same anomalous high winds, was in the 1990's. However the Arctic ice was a totally different beast in the Beaufort in those days. At the end of the 2015 melting season large chunks of MYI were locked in place by rapidly freezing FYI. FYI which did not gain the strength to resist even moderate wind on MYI with a higher freeboard. In short, the wind was able to create the space because there was room to move. Putting the two together gives you a complete picture which fits the ice dynamics of the 21st century.
Toggle Commented May 29, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 1: both sides at Arctic Sea Ice
In fact if you watch the latest 24 hour video http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/feeds/webcam-uaf-barrow-seaice-images/movies/current-1_day_animation.mp4 You can watch the snow on the shed, to the right of the chimney and down below, simply vanish as the sun comes out and the temp goes up. Latest still image shows the snow totally gone...
Toggle Commented May 11, 2016 on PIOMAS May 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
As I just posted on the forum, the Barrow webcam is showing 36F and heavy melt ponding. Seems the pacific heat is already there. http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam
Toggle Commented May 11, 2016 on PIOMAS May 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim, what I did notice is that the gyre and successive melt years have almost totally broken up that solid 5+ year band of ice which effectively blocked 2012 from much further melt. Another year the same as 2012 again and the impact will be much higher.
Fish, if you take the CT SIA graph http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html Then remove all years but 2006/2012 and 2016, you see that 2012 was much higher are than 2006 at this time. They converged about day 148 and 2012 was on it's way to history about day 160. I know that ice conditions are totally different now than they were in 2006, but I do recall reading, somewhere which I can't find now, that the weather was influenced by the heat energy and moisture released by the exceptionally early low ice conditions. Which is why I'm cautious about what might happen this year. The arctic is currently running In around 5 year cycles. If you add one more year to that mix, 2011, you see that it very closely matches both 2006 and 2016 at this time. In 5 year cycles, 2006 preceded the 2007 loss, 2011 preceded the 2012 shock and 2016??? We shall have to wait for that next instalment..
Talking about wave action Neven, wasn't it DR Barber who was researching how far wave action could penetrate into loosely connected thin and broken pack as opposed to solid thick pack. To try and stay on topic, does anyone know of a study describing how this would impact the gyre with the storms we're currently seeing there? I.e. wave action on the open water that has already been created then penetrating further and further into the pack due to the inability of the pack to resist the wave action. Once it's all broken up, then the gyre can shift it around much more easily.
Toggle Commented Apr 22, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
Is it my faulty memory or do I really remember a discussion somewhere about how the CO2 impact would be felt in the Arctic more visibly in the winter than in the summer? In terms of raised winter temperatures which might be significantly more dramatic than the temperature raise in summer. Also that the damage done in winter would lead to increased summer melt regardless of whether the summer conditions were right for melt or not. Just something playing around the edges of my memory.
Toggle Commented Apr 19, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
The most glaring thing about the whole CO2 and Nino impact we are seeing today is that it only took 15 years to make the 97/8 Nino temperatures "normal". But also the knock on impact during that time were the 2005/7/ and 12 shock ice losses. This does not bode well for 2016 to 2031! Also if countries are "doing a VAG", namely simply lying because they can't/won't reduce emissions, then things are going to go off the rails pretty quickly. None of which bodes well for the next few melt seasons. Personally 2016 is beginning to shape up like 2006, where the exceptional melt early in the season was damped down by extensive moisture cover which halted the melt. Leading, of course, to 2007. But it's warmer again now so that's debatable.
Toggle Commented Apr 18, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
Wayne, every time I see this I think. "Wasn't the goal of Kyoto and Every Single Summit after it, meant to _reduce_ the increase in CO2" Maybe I got it wrong.
Toggle Commented Apr 17, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
Ah yes, must have done something wrong when I typed it into the spreadsheet. However it comes on top of a 2015 annual 3ppm rise. The annual rise in 1998 was 2.82 It seems that the growth continues even though the Nino is fading. I'm wondering what the year will bring at the end, because the 1990's, of the other super Nino, averaged 1.5ppm, the 2000's averaged 1.9ppm and, so far, the 2010's have averaged 2.3ppm. Which would explain to me why such a low solar output cycle could continue the decay of the arctic ice and provide the huge losses we have seen in area and volume in the 2010's and the 80N heat records we are seeing.
Toggle Commented Apr 16, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
Whilst I remember did anyone notice the Feb/Feb year on year CO2 growth for 2015/16 was 3.6ppm??? http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html
Toggle Commented Apr 15, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
Also it's quite clear from eyeballing the Bremen AMSR-2 maps that there is early onset and quite significant melting happening already. The Barrow mass balance site is showing some loss already and even snow loss at -10C. Although it does look like it's been affected by some ridging. The webcam is showing melt ponding in the -5C to -10C range due to the clear skies and strong sunlight. Whatever happens it's going to be an interesting year, but that interest is not going to be in any kind of rebound...
Toggle Commented Apr 15, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
I see you used cumulative in the original post but not down here. Apologies.
Toggle Commented Apr 5, 2016 on Winter analysis addendum at Arctic Sea Ice
Just to add, if we look at 80N DMI temps, we are almost tracking to the trend line now.
Toggle Commented Apr 5, 2016 on Winter analysis addendum at Arctic Sea Ice
I looked through the descriptions here and tried to understand it. Then I realised the word which was missing for me was Cumulative. This is a cumulative value. So on day1 the difference will be negligible. However after, say, 100 days with -10C (trend), the long term trend value will be 1000FDD at day 100. If, however, the 100 days have only racked up 600FDD, in the current year (-6C average), then the anomaly will be -400 Therefore, also, to see any real difference in the chart, it would take several days of colder, or normal, weather to break the trend. i.e. 7 days at -20C where the long term average was -10C, for those 7 days, will add an additional 70FDD, to day 107 and will reduce the anomaly to -330 (in this example), for day 107. Does that make sense? Looking at the current graph it is doing exactly that right now. Also it might be interesting, in a vague way, to calculate out the heat energy of those anomaly days in terms, perhaps, of the little tracker on the top right???
Toggle Commented Apr 5, 2016 on Winter analysis addendum at Arctic Sea Ice
Bob, your point about the snow is very much to my own mind. Back in August 2000 I was working in Turin. I went home on Friday 13 Oct and my car swam, more than drove, to Milan to get the flight. When I came back on the Sunday, it took me 7.5 hours to make the return journey. I found out, later, that the entire 6 lane autostrada bridge had gone south 100m. But the key thing for me, at the time and later, was the impact of the freezing layer. Whilst the demarcation line between rain and snow had been rising in previous floods, this year it hit 3,500m. Also the extreme heat, the extreme moisture content and the extreme rainfall caused large amounts of landslips allowing huge volumes of boulders to enter the river causing extreme destruction. The analysis can be found here (pdf) http://tinyurl.com/j6hyefl There were many points in the analysis, but one here is to both our points. "A decisive factor of this event, which also makes the difference from some other previous floods (ref. [2], [3]), is the high temperature of atmosphere which has kept the freezing level at very high altitude: so that heavy precipitation over the mountain areas couldn’t be snow but have continually fed all the rivers of the basins." Food for thought. Given that it only took 15 years to bring average world temps up to the last El Nino High.... Doesn't spell anything good for freezing days, Ice conditions or summer extent or area figure...
Toggle Commented Apr 3, 2016 on Winter analysis addendum at Arctic Sea Ice