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Twemoran
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Is this object the size of a coin, a suitcase or a boxcar? A small object might be mistaken as a tasty tidbit by a polar bear or could get entangled in a seal's fur and hence transported to a safe haven on one of Ellesmere's ice shelves until possibly early this century. If it's acceptable to have the piece reappear at that time as opposed to 2014 some of the problems are mitigated. The larger the object is the more difficult explaining it's survival becomes. Pieces of the Ayles Shelf are still being tracked so once we've moved our object from the pole to the shelf it could conceivably be carried back close to the pole by the gyre. Terry
Toggle Commented Apr 7, 2014 on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
Congrats to the Sea Ice Prediction Workshop for recognising the importance of having your voice in the discussion. I'll vicariously share in your glory ;>) The most disturbing thing in the analysis is that "ensemble predictions do not improve as the season evolves". It seems as though we should be zeroing in on the solution as more data becomes available. Every year since I've been following the ice I've predicted that it would be the lowest ever, and this year is no exception. I watch as CO2 & CH4 percentages increase and think that the Arctic Sea Ice will follow in lockstep. Even when faced with the blockage of Nares Strait I assumed that openings through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago would render it mute. It appears that I'm a hopeless pessimist incapable of learning from my own mistakes. With this in mind I'll refrain from adding my 2 cents to this year's predictions other than to say again that we're going to break all previous records. Terry
Toggle Commented Mar 31, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
idunno The lag in sea level rise is something I'd not considered & I think it's possibly a game changer. Is anyone aware of the age of the undersea permafrost that we're worrying about? If it resulted from groundcover laid down during the most recent ice age then past interglacials and their CH4 releases may not be good proxies for what we're facing. The floor of Hudson Bay has large pingo features that postdate the breakup of the Laurentide ice sheet. With the seasonal loss of ice over the ESAS why would we not expect massive CH4 releases as the bottom water warms without the additional pressure that thawing ice sheets will eventually provide? The ocean temperatures off the MacKenzie Delta have been extreme in recent years. This is an area that also seems ripe for catastrophic blowouts. Terry
Toggle Commented Mar 27, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Jai From your linked article: "Temperatures in the region were 0.5-1C higher than in modern times for a period about 120,000 years ago, and at that time stalactites in caves further south, near Lake Baikal, showed signs of growth, and therefore melting." Since he has defined "modern times" to be pre-industrial earlier in the article is he here saying that regional temperatures, not global temperatures are what they are concerned with? If so at 60 North we've already blown by the 1.5c due to Arctic Amplification. Terry
Boa Interesting article - but the comment section reminded me of why Neven's sires are so wonderful. The deniers there aren't even familiar with the subject - amazing & in need of heavy moderation. Terry
I think that the opening of Nares Strait may have a much larger effect on ice volume than the width of the opening might indicate. After the 2009 year when Nares remained open all year 2010 had a huge crash in volume. In 2012 with Nares blocked by PII2012 for an extended period 2013's volume was far above expectations. By draining ice from the bottom of the Lincoln Sea where much of the thickest, oldest ice can accumulate I think that passage through Nares might allow ice to escape that otherwise makes the rounds through the Beaufort Gyre and increases PIOMAS readings for years. Terry
Toggle Commented Jan 31, 2014 on 2014 Nares Strait ice bridges at Arctic Sea Ice
Larry Your graph is eye opening but both links are to the 2,000 Meter graph. Terry
Toggle Commented Jan 21, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
That is a very strange site! Operation Popeye apparently was/is real & from time to time I wonder what advances have been made since the Vietnamese War era. Is there any way to discuss what is known without turning to the tin foil hat types? Terry
Toggle Commented Jan 15, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks Jim, I hadn't thought to check the Lincoln Sea for open water. I'd point out however that DMI is showing possibly even more open water today & the Max Temp I'm getting at Alert is -26, an even 20C change from the 22md. Naires Strait opened very late last melt season but is remaining open longer than I would have expected. Lots of MYI may have found the back door open. Terry
The little Fram Donut is raising temperatures in Northern Greenland by ~20C - Kap Morris Jesup is -4C while this date in 2012 it was -26C. Warmth is as far west as Alert at -6C. Terry
Andreas has some interesting musings on the topic at his blog. http://icyseas.org/2013/11/16/simple-design-intense-content/ Terry
Faux umbrage by faux skeptics - what a surprise. Terry
Toggle Commented Dec 8, 2013 on PIOMAS December 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
While I hate to see the internecine war taking place at RC I've read enough over the years to convince myself that S&S are on the right side of the dispute. Those that have a much better understanding of the situation than I were willing to give them the use of a Nuke Ice Breaker - and that's an expensive toy to deploy if you don't think that their position has legitimacy. Possible higher temperatures or less ice cover in the early Holocene are negated by the much colder temperatures retained in the recently inundated permafrost. The shallow bottom of Hudson Bay shows pingos post dating grooves left by iceberg keels, so clathrates have been erupting in that area since the ice sheet disintegrated. If shallow clathrate formation is impossible how were these features formed? We've been assured that the Storegga Slide wasn't caused by a clathrate blowout by BP, who then were given the OK to drill in the area - somehow I find that less than reassuring. Terry
Toggle Commented Dec 3, 2013 on And the wind cries methane at Arctic Sea Ice
John As far as prosperity bringing lower birth rates wouldn't something like the GINI index play a major role? If a country's GDP moves upward but the wealth is concentrated in the hands of the elite the majority will continue breeding at high rates. The rich get richer and the poor get children still resonates. Doesn't trickle down economics act to keep birth rates high in regions where a more equitable distribution of wealth, security or privilege might exert downward pressure? Perhaps redistribution rather than growth could fuel the beast long enough to give us time to develop some alternative. I think that Cuba has shown that people can live happily on far less when what is available is fairly distributed & China has demonstrated that a one child policy can be enforced multi generationally. If the West could learn from these examples instead of attempting to reinvent the wheel we just might find a path toward a sustainable future. Unfortunately the old "Better dead than red." meme is still strong & they now insist on taking everyone with them in their ideologically driven rush to the cliff. Terry
Toggle Commented Dec 3, 2013 on In memoriam: Albert A. Bartlett at Arctic Sea Ice
Watkin M Are you familiar with the split zoom feature at Actic.io? Flipping back through previous years is simplicity itself. Terry
Toggle Commented Sep 17, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
An exceedingly unimaginative storm naming convention would call this one AC2012-C. Terry
Toggle Commented Aug 8, 2013 on Third storm at Arctic Sea Ice
Lewis I'm in agreement with your 20 year time frame. What happens afterward won't have much impact on civilization since civilization will not survive those decades. Terry
Toggle Commented Aug 3, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
The earth began a cooling phase ~6,000 BP according to Imbrie's paper from 1980. If the Arctic had gone through a natural cycle the warm pulse originating from Arctic inundation would have been followed by a continuing cooling pulse and our worries of a sudden release of CH4 wouldn't be justified. A paper from 2012 finds that, at least in Nordic Seas, the Holocene has been warmer than the Eemian. "Moreover, inferred temperatures for the Nordic Seas were generally colder in the Eemian than in the Holocene" http://www.leif.org/EOS/2012GL051800.pdf Since this indicates that warm Atlantic waters were also absent from the Siberian shelves it provides another reason for CH4 to remaining sequestered through the Eemian. I see 4 factors at work & while no 3 of them would be cause for alarm, combined they assure a failure of the (formerly) impervious cap. 1) Sea water inundation as the ice age was ending 2) Geo-heating melting from below 3) Warm Atlantic water hastening top melt 4) AGW removing the sea ice forcing additional melt & allowing mixing Without all 4 in place the CH4 remains sequestered or vents over very long time periods. With all 4 in place the destruction of the cap is unavoidable. I don't see a sudden blow out as an unlikely event but rather the inevitable consequence of the combination of natural and man made forces that are being applied. Terry
Toggle Commented Jul 28, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven Is it possible to put someone on "ignore" in the is blog? Terry
Toggle Commented Jul 28, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
Ned & dorlomin I think that the frozen cap that makes up the ESAS has been melting since it was inundated at the end of the last ice age. The recent warm bottom water, available since summer ice has melted off, is only accelerating a process that has been ongoing since that time. Left to it's own devices the cap would have vented large amounts of CH4, but probably over long enough time periods to avoid catastrophic releases. With CH4 having 105 times the GHG potential of CO2 over a twenty year period the rate of escape is critical and as I understand it that is what S&S were researching. The HTM was too soon after the bitter cold of the ice age for this to have occurred & without AGW we'd be slowly cooling at this time in preparation for the next ice age so slow venting would have been expected. Terry
Toggle Commented Jul 27, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
I agree with A-Team's assessment. The buildup of CH4 beneath the frozen cap wasn't released during the Holocene Thermal Maximum because of the time required for the heat pulse from the inundation of the ESAS to work it's way down through the frozen cap. Shakhova raised this point back as early as 2010 I believe. The cap is no longer entirely impermeable and with warm bottom water now melting it from above as geo-heating attacks from beneath it will melt out. The gas pressure probably will cause the ever thinning cap to rupture rather than continue leaking. Watkin's point is that without summer ice keeping water hovering around 0C, this new warmer pulse is working it's way down, melting rapidly as it goes. The fact that CH4 didn't vent during the Holocene Maximum shouldn't viewed with relief, but rather with horror as we realize that we're faced with a much larger problem than would have been the case had CH4 been venting at low rates over long periods of time. Terry
Toggle Commented Jul 27, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
Let me endorse OLN's comments above. This is a new concept for (all?) of us & there are going to be bumps along the path. I just recieved a message from the folks that want the presentation for a First Nations education project so I'll have to get started in that direction. I'm typing between doctors appointments so don't have time to address each of the posts just yet. There is a problem about the latest modified versions not being visible from the posted URL - if anyone is familiar with Google Drive and how to share things properly - please advise. Terry
S Latham I think you may be right. WhatI'd been considering was the latent heat uptake and release during the freeze/melt cycles. During todays melting months, say from April to September, enormous amounts of sensible heat are being used to melt ice while in winter the freezing of Arctic ice stabilizes ocean temperatures at about -2C. In a seasonally ice free situation: In months without ice starting in September, then progressing through August and July the latent energy now melting ice will be released as sensible heat so cooler spring and summer temperatures with ice should be accurate. In the months when freezing now occurs from October through to March freezing will still be occurring at about the same rate as today so no change in fall or winter would be more accurate. In a constantly ice free Arctic - which may be impossible due to long winter nights: The present melting months of April through September will be exhibiting an increase in sensible heat so the Arctic ice is providing cooling in spring and summer. In the months when freezing now occurs from October through to March the lack of ice would mean no change of phase. Without the phase change temperatures would be colder, but since this will only occur in warmer conditions the phrase "Arctic ice keeps winters warmer", while accurate probably conveys the wrong message. Trying to synopsize this into one sentence may be beyond my limited literary prowess. "Arctic sea ice acts as a buffer, cooling our summers & warming our winters." might be better as "Arctic sea ice acts to stabilize Arctic Ocean temperatures to ~-2C which affects Northern Hemisphere weather year round." I've changed slide #64in the NiagaraModified presentation using the new sentence. Terry
Thanks for the kind words - and especially thanks to all that helped with the graphics that made up the bulk of the presentation. I'm inviting criticism so that this can evolve into something that the Arctic Sea Ice community can take pride in, even if no presentation is ever made in your area. I'll try to respond to all suggestions made & those I feel comfortable with will be incorporated into the NiagaraModified presentation which is the version I'll be using next time the opportunity arises. Terry
3.0 Extent is the least important metric IMHO. Area is far more important & Volume tells the story. PII2012 may delay Nares Strait advection but I believe that the CAA will again swallow up any MYI that approaches. I'd be more surprised by 4 than 0 but 2015 is still my best guess for hitting bottom.(for 1 day) Larry - I'll be interested in seeing what can be extrapolated from the poll. Can geographic data be extracted so that we could compare say Canadian guesses as opposed to American or European? Terry