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VaughnA
Ridgefield, Washington
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I need lessons on importing graphs. Maybe somebody can get this one from NOAA: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/ and/or http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.fig5.png In 1700 it looks like CO2eq was 270ppm and virtually all CO2. Now CO2eq is 490ppm. Sam, another poster here has CO2eq pegged at 527ppm if ozone is included. More of a telling tale than just CO2.
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on PIOMAS December 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
"I've considered many times to start a second blog to present the house (its strengths and flaws) with some numbers attached, and then do the same for the garden." --Neven I have followed your blog since its inception and the educational value to me has been very substantial. I look forward to a blog about gardening. I have been organic farming since I was a kid and that was back when there was talk about global cooling that was not coming from wing-nut jobs. I have done both dairy and gardening; I have taught high school horticulture for the past 16 years so I have hopefully learned a few things. There are many things yet for me to learn about gardening, however, my garden has been very successful over the years. Hopefully I can contribute in this area a bit. A blog about the house would also be great. I want to add solar power and make some other improvements as well. It would be nice to see by example how to be more environmental friendly.
Toggle Commented 4 days ago on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
In the third line "Never" should be "Neven" I need to turn off autocorrect.
Toggle Commented Dec 1, 2016 on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
Martin, thanks for linking to Chris Mooney's article about Neven and the Arctic Sea Ice Blog. The article is rich with well deserved accolades for Neven and the entire Arctic Sea Ice community. Never also seems to have a much wider sphere of influence that I realized. As Glenn says, possibly some of the most knowledgeable members of this community can make some guest posts to continue this wonderful education experience for the readers/members of this blog. There are 2 appropriate quotes that come to mind about Neven and the Arctic Sea Ice Blog: Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has. – Margaret Mead, Anthropologist Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world. – Nelson Mandela So, in that vein, Neven, may you time away from this blog be productive and fulfilling. You deserve a break. The education of this blog and the Arctic Sea Ice Forum will continue.
Toggle Commented Dec 1, 2016 on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
Personally, I find the "cyclemongers" informative, interesting and educational. One thing I also "read" from their posts is, "Will the cycle continue next year?"
Toggle Commented Nov 28, 2016 on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks Bill, I was wondering why water vapor was left out. What you say explains that.
Toggle Commented Nov 22, 2016 on PIOMAS November 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven, yes I remember when Patrick and you more or less worked together. A lot of good has come from that. Consider the popularity of this blog and the Arctic See Ice Forum. If anything is going to save the world it is forums like these. You have created something that now has a life of its own. You have done amazing things which will continue to educate me plus all the readers of these forums. As for growing food, I do that too. I grow more than I can eat myself so I give or trade it to neighbors for different garden stuff. I dehydrate and can vegetables and fruit. I feel fortunate that I do this and I hope you will too. So enjoy your time away from here when you can be away. Thank you for facilitating the information that flows here and sharing your knowledge of Sea Ice and climate principles.
Toggle Commented Nov 21, 2016 on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
Sam, NOAA has CO2eq at 485 ppm at the end of 2015. They also may use slightly different data values than CDIAC which could explain some of the difference. NOAA also does not include tropospheric ozone which looks to be most of the difference. This is reasonably close and supports what you are saying. This does not include water vapor either which has also increased some. I believe the 520 or 527 ppmCO2eq sounds reasonable. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/
Toggle Commented Nov 21, 2016 on PIOMAS November 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
"I'm just going to sit back and watch now. It should be quite interesting to see how the chartic curve ends up by January." NeilT, I hope you keep posting. I find your insights important to combat the "stupidity" in my world. I have several converts and I am working on some more. Your help is greatly appreciated. Patrick, good to hear you are posting again!
Toggle Commented Nov 18, 2016 on PIOMAS November 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Climate denial extremists consistently demonstrate their lack of understanding/knowledge of quantum physics and natural earth systems...not sure there is too much more to say on that topic. What is truly scary is the temperature north of 80 degrees that DMI is reporting. As best I can tell it is 268K just -5C. It looks like the average is 248K or -25C. That is a whopping 20C above average. Ice will not thicken very fast at that temperature. In my neck of the woods(Western Washington State by Oregon) average high temperatures are about 10C of 50F this time of year. This kind of anomaly here would put the temperature at 30C or 86F. Scary indeed. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png
Toggle Commented Nov 17, 2016 on PIOMAS November 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
"Well, as you know, IMO the 2016 vs 2012 ballgame is more important than the tiny local contest of Donald vs Hillary. Now I should insert tons of baseball metaphors and idioms, but I never understood the rules." viddaloo, I completely agree. Only a few governments of the world are currently facing the climate ballgame. Donald is ignoring climate change right now. I don't make many predictions, but the hair on the back of my neck is standing up a bit. I predict that Donald will face climate change square in the face if he survives the next several years. It will not be because he wants to either. "Ma Nature" will send the bill. It might go something like this: Ma Nature: "Miami, New Orleans, and Houston are flooded and Phoenix is too hot to be survivable, pay up and deal with it." Donald: "No." Ma Nature: "Whatever; also this is only the first installment, and by the way, Nigeria, Thailand, and Haiti need a $trillion each to help move their people. You won't forget them will you?" Donald: "Uhh." Ma Nature: "Yep deal with it." Etc. (Okay it probably won't go quite like this but I believe there will be some major events in the not too distant future for Donald to work on.) Neven, Thanks for your years of writing and moderating this blog. I have learned more about climate, politics, and consequences of inaction than from any other source. Hopefully you can continue in some capacity and/or partly pass the torch to another competent person to continue this dialogue. Wow! It's been quite a "rollercoaster' ride, only destined to get more dramatic. I hope your new journey is as fulfilling as this part has been.
Toggle Commented Nov 9, 2016 on PIOMAS November 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
"I can live with an ice free arctic better than the starvation of billions of people." Robert, An ice free Arctic will likely directly cause the starvation of billions of people. If not for lack of food, then things like flooding, fires, political unrest, etc. will lead to tremendous turmoil. As a gardener/horticulturist I see many more destructive insects after a warmer than normal winter. Some people may like the feel of a warmer winter, but when they are starving it will be too late to do anything about it. Hotter summers will kill many crops. During the daytime 30 degrees C is the generally accepted temperature of the maximum photosynthesis rate for C-3 plants. C-4 plants like corn and many tropical plants tolerate temperatures a few degrees warmer. Above 36 degrees C many/most C-3 plants are respiring faster than photosynthesizing so they starve to death. Warmer nighttime temperatures cause plants to respire faster at night as well, thereby leading to their starvation even faster during hotter weather. More heat causes more evaporation so soils dry out faster. Change in rainfall patterns does not help either. Things do not look good with an ice free Arctic.
vindaloo, unfortunately you did not recognize my sarcasm about the protocols/ politicians/"Politicians" as you put it. BTW, I am a long term lurker and have read this blog long before you started posting. I occasionally post when I have something to add. My point was about the table of the various greenhouse gasses that NOAA has documented since 1979 which have left us with a carbon equivalent of 485 ppm as of the end of 2015. That is considerably worse than the 402 ppm of CO2 being tossed around now. I am not sure most people think about the other greenhouse gasses although I believe most people on this blog may be aware of methane, nitrous oxide and other gasses. NOAA: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html
"I was doing some checking on the NOAA site for CO2 trends." Neil, I have spent some time looking at the NOAA CO2 website and things look even worse than you mention. At the end of 2015 CO2 equivalent was 485ppm of CO2. Global Radiative forcing was nearly 3 W/M^2. You are right about the rate increasing. The protocols the world is putting into place should be causing a decline in the rate increase, right?? NOAA has a nice chart that shows the numbers back to 1979: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/aggi.html
In the past it appears that the ice temperature and the dew point in the Arctic Basin were mostly at or below freezing during stormy weather even during the summer. If the temperature becomes warm enough with a dew point above freezing(which appears to be more likely), won't the liquid water condensing on the ice eventually cause as great a melt or even greater melt than sunny conditions do now? (There have been previous discussions about above freezing dew points and the rate of snow melt.) How high would the dew point need to be under cloudy conditions to melt as much ice as say sunny weather at 2 degrees C with a dew point of say -3 degrees C? Assume similar wind conditions. As I write this I think this question is rather complex, but considering this possibility my help us get a better handle on melt.
Toggle Commented May 21, 2016 on Beaufort final update at Arctic Sea Ice
Susan, Thanks for your "etiquette" comment. Most everyone on here follows this protocol exceptionally well especially considering the number of voices present. I appreciate the reminder. Bobcobb, Susan said, "You are, however, quick to attack and to overinterpret what other people say, while slow to moderate your own voice." As a long time mostly lurker who reads virtually 100% of this blog I appreciate the civil dialog and the "I want to know more; please explain so I will understand better" attitude of nearly everyone on here. Unfortunately, I stopped reading some of your posts because of the abruptness that Susan points out as well as the absoluteness of some of your statements. In my world all means "all" and never or none means "never or none." For example: a/b = c/d if a=c and b=d is in fact a false statement. To make this a true statement we need to state that b and d do not equal "0". So, when you make absolute statements I understand them in a similar fashion so it became pointless for me to continue reading your posts. I will try reading your posts again. Much of what you say has a "ring of truth." Please take Susan's advice.
This post on Weather Underground by Christopher Bert might be slightly off topic however it seems logical that some of this heat will likely continue to spread northward and affect the Arctic to an even greater degree: Extraordinary Heat Wave Sweeps Southeast Asia and Points Beyond By: Christopher C. Burt , 6:47 PM GMT on April 19, 2016 https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/extraordinary-heat-wave-sweeps-southeast-asia-and-points-beyond Also, the Climate Reanalyzer 7 day forecast shows continued heat in several days over India and Pakistan: http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/#ASIAPAC-CED Although the forecast for Pakistan/India is for slightly cooler temperatures for the next few days, if this heat trend continues for another month and a half I am wondering how survivable these conditions will become by the end of May/early June which is typically when it is the hottest there. It also makes sense that some of this heat will make it to the Arctic considering the current air circulation patterns.
Toggle Commented Apr 24, 2016 on Meanwhile, on the other side at Arctic Sea Ice
My daughter said that that truck was "indeed built in Portland, Oregon" and that even a Bill said, 'reached tipping point,' it still "looked pretty good and hoped that somebody pulled it out before it sank completely."
My daughter works for Western Star in Portland, OR. Western Star has a truck plant in Canada too, so the odds it was made in Portland are low. Nevertheless, she has been showing the photo around. It was at least a point of interest. So, Neven, thanks for the post. It made my day.
Abbotisgone, I think the quote from Kevin Schaefer at the NSIDC says a lot: "There is a huge amount of carbon stored in permafrost. Right now, the Earth's atmosphere contains about 850 gigatons of carbon. (A gigaton is one billion tons—about the weight of one hundred thousand school buses). We estimate that there are about 1,400 gigatons of carbon frozen in permafrost. So the carbon frozen in permafrost is greater than the amount of carbon that is already in the atmosphere today." https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/frozenground/methane.html This is completely freaky. Methane and carbon dioxide would increase dramatically if even half of this got into the atmosphere. Temperatures would increase how much??? In the Arctic the increase would be on the order of at least twice as much as mid-latitudes. This would cause how much Arctic sea ice to melt, how much of Greenland to melt, not to even mention Antarctica? I live 302 feet above sea level. However, are we going to get tsunamis from Antarctica this large if the ice sheet collapses like a pile of Jenga blocks?
Thanks A-Team that is very helpful It sounds like you are saying that a fair amount of heat is generated. Wouldn't heat generated a few meters underground be conducted both upwards and downwards preventing deeper freezing during the winter and continue thawing deeper as well due to close proximity to deeper frozen material? The video you supply the link to Colorado Bob shows the top layer sloughing off, certainly another part of the thawing process. My guess is that we are headed for "one hell of a mess."
Thanks, Rob and Neven. It sounds like there is a considerable potential for heat production in organic permafrost. The bigger question I have is whether or not the process can be "self-sustaining." I hypothesize that wherever it becomes self-sustaining the thaw will be much more rapid than if/where it is not self-sustaining. Maybe some answers will come from this workshop. In any case the problem sounds very serious and this workshop should give us a better idea about this seriousness.
As the permafrost layer thaws and as the organic material there decays via microbes heat is generated by this process. I have searched for some information on this topic but so far I have come up empty handed. It would seem that as the thaw layer deepens more heat would be generated with less heat escaping to the surface thereby heating deeper permafrost. With warmer air temperatures and with some decay generated heat not escaping to the surface due to more and more heat being generated at deeper and deeper levels as more permafrost thaws it follows that this could become a self sustaining process. The heat generated by the decay itself then could continue to thaw the deepest permafrost creating a rapid decay of deep organic layers until the supply of organics was exhausted. If this scenario is true then large amounts of methane and carbon dioxide would be released into the atmosphere quite rapidly. Questions: 1. How much heat is actually generated by the decay process. 2. Is it enough to become self-sustaining? 3. Would a process I described be enough to significantly alter the thaw/decay process?
Wishing everyone the best for the new year. Interestingly Weather Underground shows an active wildfire for December 31 near Peace River in northern Canada. Seems pretty unusual for a wildfire in that area this time of year. http://www.wunderground.com/
Toggle Commented Jan 1, 2016 on Winter solstice at Arctic Sea Ice