This is VaughnA's Typepad Profile.
Join Typepad and start following VaughnA's activity
Join Now!
Already a member? Sign In
Ridgefield, Washington
Recent Activity
Wall, in my world when a person calls another person a name like you mention, the reality is that the sayer of the name is in all actuality saying that about himself or herself. Just saying.... (Neven please delete this comment if you wish.)
Jai, great wordsmithing; I can't agree with you more. I read some of their crock-o-babble to stay current with their "disinformation propaganda" and sometimes post some clear evidence from our sources used on this blog. Hopefully we can constrain more of this pallyandering before it completely hits critical mass.
Thanks Pete, I also wonder about the dominant force. I also agree that the "aggravate" philosophy is also part of a plausible explanation as well.
Toggle Commented Oct 4, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Pete Williamson said: "whether these changes in circulation patterns are natural or CO2 forced or a bit of both." I like to think of these "changes" in the context of a "cascade of events." The initial causes of human released carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere set off a series of events that result in changes in Arctic Ocean circulation patterns. To oversimplify: Extra carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, etc., cause extra heat to build up in the atmosphere some of what the ocean absorbs. Water vapor then increases in the atmosphere warming the atmosphere even more. Air circulation changes as does non-Arctic Ocean circulation. More heat invades the Arctic, more ice melts, less ice refreezes and as a result there is more open water in the Arctic. Wind and storms move water through waves and start upwellings and downwellings in the Arctic similar to the other oceans causing even less ice cover in the Arctic. Repeat and repeat as long as additional carbon dioxide has an effect. The closest parallel example I am thinking about is similar to biological concentration of a toxin in the environment which may be very low. However, as this toxin moves up the food chain and becomes more concentrated at each step, eventually arriving at tertiary carnivores, the effects of this toxin may become lethal. Similarly, a seemingly small increase in carbon dioxide can have large effects up the line as heat energy becomes more concentrated. I am sure someone here has a better way to explain or deny this thinking pattern but I though I would take a stab at it.
Toggle Commented Oct 3, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Great discussion as usual. I have real from several sources about the heat content of the deep Arctic Ocean and how if this heat ever made it to the surface in enough quantity the era of Arctic Ice would basically be over. Due to saltiness, layering, and lack of the water being disturbed this heat has been stuck at the bottom. So, what I am hearing from this discussion is that wind and storminess during the low ice conditions we are having now is stirring deep waters and bringing this trapped heat to the surface in greater and greater quantities. That is really a scary thought.
Toggle Commented Oct 2, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Bill, thanks for pointing out the typo and Clare for posting on the Forum. Maybe the heat from the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge is getting to me... still 8 - 12 degrees C above normal in Western Oregon & Washington USA.
Bill, No, missed it...still don't see it, duh.
I just read this article in the New Zealand Herald. Maybe some new information: "What's going on in the big frozen continent below us? Dr Nancy Bertler of GNS Science and Victoria University, a plenary speaker in the 2015 Antarctic Science Conference opening in Christchurch tomorrow, answered these questions." from the NZ Herald. Q&A: Antarctica - our big icy threat
"Please, go find an echo chamber where you feel more at home; N.]" Thanks Neven, I appreciate your promptness to keep this under control. ,,,Meanwhile The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge continues. Thanks for the links explaining the causes/effects etc. I am reading these as I can get to them. Very interesting the changes in the Hadley Cell.
The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge is firmly in place and is forecast to intensify and stabilize over the next two weeks with temperatures in Western Oregon valleys from 30 to 40˚C which is 5˚C to 15˚C above normal. To make matters worse there was nearly no snow this past winter so mountainous areas that would normally still have 2 or 3 meters of snow on the ground have been barren of snow for over 3 weeks. It is highly unusual to have such a persistent heat forecast in place so early in the summer. Even late July into early August temperatures like these are unusual for such a long period of time. If this hot high pressure builds into Alaska and or the Arctic it would certainly affect the melting on the Pacific side. Also looking at the Arctic water temperature anomaly maps I cannot remember when there has been such a large anomaly over such a wide region around the periphery of the ice. That looks like an interesting predicament.
Colorado Bob, I made a mention of this factor some time back on this blog. Tremendous numbers of joules going deep into the ice. If liquid water is making it to bedrock it is starting to lubricate and float the ice. If it refreezes in deep cracks then it is splitting old ice apart much like water freezing in a crack in a rock splits it apart. The results should be increasingly interesting to say the least. From what I am reading about Greenland on the ASIF the increased speed of numerous glaciers and associated calvings indicate the water is already affecting the ice in a non linear fashion.
Bill, According to what I am seeing about barycenter is we currently vary about 0.8 radii of the sun with corresponding radiation gain when closer and equivalent loss when roughly this distance further away a half year later. This is independent of seasonal distance and is quite small. It looks like it will max out at about 1.6 solar radii in 2022-2023. The earth should get equivalent increased and decreased radiation over the course of each year with a net difference of "0" as both of us have been saying. I am not quite sure why you are saying my "0" is different from your "0." This is getting off topic, so it is probably not worth discussing further on this blog since the effects are as you say non existent or too small to measure.
Bill, I've never seen or heard of the tallbloke blog before you mentioned it. I have gotten all my info from astronomy resources that were mostly concerned about the mechanics of the motion. I think the topic is very interesting; however, I agree the effects on climate are ephemeral and swing both ways over a short time scale with a NET effect for all intents and purposes "0."
Bill, in case you missed it in my previous comment: "Of course, over time this all averages out but can cause variability over the span of several years." I am in no way suggesting this causes any type of long term trend, only temporary noise that averages out due to some variability in our distance from the sun over the short term. I am not even suggesting this is the major source of noise. I won't bore you with a list like that because they have been and continue to be well discussed here. It's probably more about me thinking artifacts like this are cool especially since this is one of the ways extrasolar planets are discovered.
Bill F., if I am remembering correctly the northern hemisphere summer is about 4 days longer than the northern hemisphere winter thereby making up for the greater distance from the barycenter of the solar system. The opposite is true in the southern hemisphere...winter is about 4 days longer and summer about 4 days shorter. Remember also we actually orbit the barycenter of the solar system instead of just the sun. This also causes variability in our distance from the sun as well as variability in solar input as the sun also orbits the barycenter as well. Of course, over time this all averages out but can cause variability over the span of several years. Right now the barycenter is beneath the surface of the sun so variability is smaller. Starting in 2017 the barycenter will be moving outside the sun for a number of years increasing the effect of this variation.
The Climate Reanalyzer with the GFS is now showing temperatures in the Beaufort, Chukchi and into the Arctic Basin above freezing in the forecast in about 5 to 7 days. This is a few days out, but if it holds true, melt ponds will likely become widespread in those areas.
Toggle Commented May 16, 2015 on 2014/2015 Winter analysis at Arctic Sea Ice
"I applaud Neven's decision and I deeply appreciate the hard work you all have done to make this a special place." Stan, I lurk a lot too and post occasionally. I also appreciate the collective intelligence on this blog and thank all of those who post informatively. It was definitely time for "C" to go for reasons others have already stated.
Toggle Commented May 12, 2015 on 2014/2015 Winter analysis at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven, this is a wonderful opportunity for you to really gather the information to put climate change in proper perspective(Not that you don't do a great job already!) Hopefully you will reconsider going to more than just one day. I have been to two Nation Science Teachers of America in Portland, Oregon USA and the other in San Jose, California USA. That was a few years ago(circa 2001-2003) but I consider attending these to be high points in my life. The volume of information scientists were publishing at that time about recent different studies and research was truly overwhelming. The American Chemical Society had a few presentations about atmospheric and oceanic effects of man-made greenhouse chemicals and how they were working to reduce the use of these. What I came away with from them was about things I didn't even know that I didn't even know existed about the monumental and subtle effects of some of these chemicals on earth's climate. One other important thing I brought from these symposiums was the effects of so many seemingly innocuous things and how they affect climate. The sheer volume and variety of information helped me put a few things together quickly which otherwise may have never happened at all. One suggestion: Take pictures of the posters if allowed. If you run out of time looking at all of them you can look at the pictures later.
Also a tidbit from Weather Underground weather historian, Christopher C. Burt: "Possible New Continental Heat Record for Antarctica"
Toggle Commented Mar 28, 2015 on Shock news! at Arctic Sea Ice
Bill, I thoroughly enjoyed your post. I got a couple chuckles here and there but I do have a couple questions/observations... "btw what's an "ice" seal?" I was thinking maybe of a generic type of a seal type animal carved out of ice...hmmm.... Or maybe when a waterpipe freezes and it is sealed full of ice. I would consider that to be an "ice seal." Or even a film of frozen water over the top of soft snow. Now that would be a real "ice seal." How about an ice arch? Now that could be could be considered to be an "ice seal" now couldn't it? This is the first I have heard about "ice seals" so I was rather scratching around for an answer and I do like your analysis of "ice seals" as well. Btw, I like your sign off handle, 'cheers bill f," however I do feel annoyed when someone else plagiarizes it. I mean, really, are sign off handles that limited?
Toggle Commented Mar 27, 2015 on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
Okay, eastern North America got 14 to 15 feet of snow. Out West places that normally get 30 to 40 feet of snow got a couple feet(Ok, exaggerating a little for some higher elevations but areas above 6000' feet might have gotten 5' to 10' especially in Washington state and British Columbia. Wide areas that normally get 10' got less tan 2' and most of that has melted except it is snowing in most areas of Washington state above 3500' now but not forecast to last. So, all that snow in the East will not make up for what we normally get here that doesn't mostly melt until late July or early August some years.
Toggle Commented Mar 24, 2015 on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
Bill thanks, you are absolutely right about the 540 cal/ gram. I read the article from NSIDC. Yes, good information but it really didn't answer my questions so I will rephrase them: If one cm of ice sublimes from the ice surface into the air, where does all the heat come from to sublime the ice and how much does it affect the freezing of the ice? If one cm of ice equivalent condenses on the ice from the air where does all that released heat go and how much does it affect the freezing of the ice? I am not sure about the effect but it must at least be something.
Toggle Commented Mar 20, 2015 on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
One thing I am wondering about, considering the feeble response of the ice this year, is how much relative humidity affects freezing. I have asked this question before a few years ago but did not get very much response. Consider that the heat of water vapor condensation(600 calories/gram + 80 calories/gram since the ice is going directly to vapor from ice) is about 8.5 times the heat of fusion alone(80 calories/gram). Therefore when relative humidity is low subliming 1cm of ice from the surface will cause 8.5cm of ice to freeze on the bottom for a net gain of 7.5cm. provided that 100% of this heat comes from the ice and none from the air to change the ice to water.(I am NOT suggesting that the efficiency is anywhere near 100%.) If the relative humidity is in the 90% range and there is no sublimation nor deposition then the ice thickness should not be affected by humidity but could still be thinner at similar temperatures in the past that had low humidity conditions. Likewise, if the relative humidity is near 100%, then for every 1cm deposition of ice equivalent of frost should prevent 7.5 cm of ice from freezing if 100% of the heat goes into the ice. Again, I am NOT suggesting the efficiency is near 100%. I do not know how much effect this has on freezing ice but I have watched ponds freeze under dry or humid conditions and the depth of the ice formed in the same number of days and similar temperatures is quite significant. I suspect this has been thoroughly researched but I have not seen any numbers published about the effects of humidity. Based on numerous posts on this blog, it appears the the arctic has been considerably more humid this winter than in the past which could be contributing to how feebly the ice has responded. Any ideas about this or information would be most helpful.
Toggle Commented Mar 19, 2015 on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
The suggestion that this kind of stuff is unknown to scientists is simply embarrassing." Bill, spot on. I am also waiting for Cincinnatus to publish a longer list than I of valid and reliable studies that provide good evidence that climate change is a matter of natural variation and that human activities have nothing to do with it.....haven't seen a longer list than mine from anyone in fact. (See my post in "Thinner and Thinner" about my list.)
Toggle Commented Mar 13, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
The Climate prediction Center also suggests that after a week of relatively cool temps in western Alaska during the coming week the warmth returneth:
Toggle Commented Mar 7, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice