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Willard Preacher
Los Angeles
Enjoying show business, the So Cal weather, and following the Phils.
Recent Activity
And while I appreciate the recent attention given to RAJ's BRef page, I'm just hoping like hell that I don't have to renew it next Spring!
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I have to admit that I was tepid in my support of any trade of Hamels (and RAJ is actually right to look for "the deal of the Century" - he's right in that he's in no position to have to trade him). However, the recent moves of the BoSox getting Yankees (or even late '00 Phillies) fever and handing out contracts to veterans to "win now" definitely has me rethinking things. If Cole can somehow result in Boegarts and other high-ceiling prospects to build around, perhaps this rebuild actually can occur sooner than I was anticipating. Hold strong, Rube! Ask for the farm! Oh, and count me among those thrilled to see JW and his unique (and thought/discussion provoking take) back in the mix in any form or fashion. I know he's felt that this site only became a place to essentially rehash details already posited elsewhere, but I think he's severely discounting his own unique perspective on those stories. And candidly, posted elsewhere or not, some of us actually came here first for those stories, because of the additional perspective and conversation. Philly.com comments just don't do it...
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Oh, I see the reason for the presumed backlash and while I like to think that most everyone who follows this team even from a distance understands the need to invest in the future, yeah, they're going to be pissed that it's going to take a few years to figure out what we really have offensively from these guys. Candidly, I'll be among those who complain about the lack of "production" during game threads (if they still exist here...), but I do get the big picture that we're going to see some regression before we see the payoff. It's basically dealing for a few D Browns and giving them time to (hopefully) figure it out. Thinking just a bit more on Chooch, and in the same vein, I do see value in hanging onto him through this season if the Phils do show some sort of inclination to develop young pitching at the big league level in a lost season. While I get that the Sox would need a catcher and Chooch would be a great short term solution to throw in, I have mixed feelings if the Phils go into total "learn on the job at the MLB level" mode and bring up Biddle (and even Nola in a Sept call up?). I'd much prefer to have Chooch help them with their learning curve. Man, this really is a dysfunctional spot this roster is in. There's simply no solution that won't take several years.
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Juums, I like to think that last year and the impending sh8t show coming up this season has the Phillies fandom reconsidering their emotional loyalties. I think speculation about a Hamels trade, in general, is evidence of that. But I see what you're saying about reluctance to throw in Chooch. That said, anyone who thinks that Carlos Ruiz is going to be the starting catcher the next time this team is relevant is smoking something that is illegal in 6 continents (Antarctica doesn't have a Parliament yet). I have no qualms on throwing him into any deal, but that return isn't much to build around, either. Yeah, there's potential upside, but I'd expect juuuuust a bit more if we're throwing in $, too. But we could definitely do worse (and RAJ probably will). While not as much as your "#2 Cubs scenario," I do like it...
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BTW, whenever the Phillies are "concerned" about anyone's "outfield defense," please remember that this FO alone is responsible for signing Delmon Young and his terrible defense to displace an already defensively challenged Dom Brown into further erosion of his defense (and let's not even get started on Pat Burrell or the Darin Ruf experiment - who is still listed as an outfielder on the 40 man roster on Phillies.com). I'm sure BAP can come up with a good analogy here, but I put as much stock in the "Phillies are concerned about his defense" comment, as I do in every time I hear Derrick Rose is day-to-day with a minor ankle injury.
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BAP, you're 100% correct. I have two posts queued up and ready to go, and I feel 100% confident in both. If the Phillies don't get him: "You just know Tomas is going to be the Cuban Manny Ramirez." If the Phillies do sign him: "Looks like RAJ overpaid for another guinea pig for the Phillies Medical Staff to play with."
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Getting a little whiplash here: Todd Zolecki @ToddZolecki Paul Hagen reports the Phillies have cooled on Yasmany Tomas. http://mlb.mlblogs.com/2014/11/20/phillies-backing-off-tomas/ … then: Jayson Stark @jaysonst Yasmani Tomas bidding in furious progress this week. Exec of one club says to bet the mortgage on the Phillies:"Wanting to do something big"
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But on a serious note, that's an absolute tragic situation for Ryan. I know he's not one to get much sympathy, but I genuinely feel bad for him, and though it's not really an excuse, who could realistically expect to play their best under those condition?
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[cue comments about "how much worse a hitter can Howard's brother even be?"]
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Dickie, I was thinking the same about Ron Howard... And now that you mention it, if his twin is trying to cash in on Howard's success, that business model was already set by Ozzie Canseco! Perhaps he's waiting on Howard to move on so the Phillies can enact their trademark "sign the wrong brother" model then?
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Surprised no one has posted this one yet. This is some pretty shady sh8t by Howard's family: http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/The_family_legal_fight_over_Ryan_Howards_finances.html As much as I hate what Howard brings to the Phillies (or more accurately doesn't bring...), I can't imagine the stress the guy is under with stuff like this, coupled with all the talk/speculation and physical evidence of his decline and drag on his employer. As a human, I feel for the guy. As a fan, I say give him his $, and let him move on with his life.
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There's also the small nuance that both are right handed batters...
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The bigger concern, for me, in platooning Ruf and Franco at 1B is that you want/need both to get as many PA's as possible (if you are, indeed, grooming them for the future - Franco, particularly).
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"Ruiz is an option, although Arizona’s Miguel Montero is the hottest name at the moment." This is going to be the death knell to those of us holding out any hope that the Phillies can build a future via prospects using their trade chips. Candidly, the secondary impact to the model that has resulted in bad contracts to aging/declining veterans means that those aging/declining veterans, at best, are another teams' "Plan B" if a trade was to occur. Even to a team that's a huge "buyer" at the deadline, their first preference (and one where they'd be willing to part with young talent of any ilk) is in players who have a few years left in them. Outside of Hamels, the Phils don't exactly have a lot of those guys. For every Ruiz, there is a Montero. Worse yet, for every Howard, there are infinite "dudes not named Howard and making $25M/yr."
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@BAP "Not to mention that few, if any, teams have the Braves' track record when it comes to developing pitchers." Except that if there is, indeed, another team in that conversation it would be the Cardinals. The fact that they're willing to let him go for what may be a season of Heyward tells me that he's unlikely to become that potential front line starter.
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I'm not an ESPN Insider, so I couldn't read the column, but I assume that in article where "Buster Olney ranks the Top 10 1B," that Howard slipped down to number 4 or 5 or so? I'd have to imagine that his 2014 didn't help.
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That trade alone should kill any discussion that might still be lingering (it's not really...) about Brown's status as a prospect vs. Heyward's at a similar point. That's a decent haul for one of the teams that's still relevant in the NLE, despite having to rebuild their core several times over now. I guess it doesn't always mean relegating yourself to 2+ years of losing baseball.
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DPat, I tend to agree. I think this isn't a case of "where there's smoke, there's fire." I think that the "smoke" of the Phillies interest here is just a smoke screen to create a perception that they're building for the future on young players. That said, I'd actually prefer that to be the case than to break the bank for a guy who, while he could absolutely likely help this team in the medium and long term, he's likely not the kind of guy you build a roster around. That is where the Phillies really should be throwing around $100M+. Spending a ton of money on a young (albeit promising) player, just to show that you're willing to throw money at young players, isn't the best way to deviate from the previous mindset of throwing money at aging proven veterans. I guess the simplest way I can look at it is that I'd love to have Tomas, but not on a deal that forces the team to make him the centerpiece of the team's future (you know, kind of what they did with the Howard extension...).
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I agree that it's the $'s that are likely to submarine any Tomas deal. Not the years, or even the lack of competitiveness. DPat is essentially right. The Phillies are being touted in the rumors to drive up the price. Other teams are likely to bid against their own previous offers as a result (the Phillies will do so only to a modest extent). This is being well-played by Tomas's agent. Unless the Phillies are 100% convinced that he's a can't-miss player to build around, they'd actually be smart to cap their offer accordingly considering their current state. The current Phillies situation is actually really simple - 1 yr deals to "stop gap" players or break the bank on can't miss young studs to build around. And even as it relates to the latter, let's not forget that this is the Phillies, so "break the bank" is relative and actually unprecedented when it comes to a player on the right side of 30.
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rob, the "if they don't dump them in their arb years" being the operable disclaimer, yes. That said, if that does come to fruition, it would be absolutely against every previous action that franchise has shown since their inception. They'll get good with a young team (kinda like the Cubs are hoping to do...), then sell off the parts that cost more than a rusty tin can. I just hope Stanton is getting one of those sweetheart RAJ-patented NTC's in whatever extension he signs.
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If the Fish spend that on Stanton, I hope he enjoys playing out the balance of what was a promising career with a bunch of league minimum dreck, in a dumpster fire of a stadium that's likely to get no upgrades or attention for the duration of the contract. Oh, and the endless trade speculation from year two onward.
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BAP, really makes me excited for the Rule 5 Draft!
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Over on TGP, Joecatz posted something that made this all make sense for me: In 2007, Grady SIzemore and Jeff Francoeur combined for 9.2 fWAR between them. The 2014 phillies put up 10.9 fWAR between all of their position players. So, per the standard 7 year RAJ lag, I'm absolutely shocked that we didn't see this coming from a million miles away.
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(I really need those BL points!)
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Conway, is this it? http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/15-Ruffleg-Cir-Denver-PA-17517/9680812_zpid/
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