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Stephen Gordon
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Avon Barksdale: "If you would prefer that I not comment any further on the wci I will respect your wishes." I think that would be best. Your interpretation of "challenge bluntly" is not in keeping with the tone here.
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But as a complement to Livio's point, I might point to this old post about contrasting trends in Canadian and US median incomes
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Avon: You are free to disagree with a point, and explain why. You are not, however, the editor of WCI, and we don't work for you. It it most definitely not your job to decide who can say what here.
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Hey, that's great! And thanks for pointing me to this *before* I started looking at annual data!
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Eric Gyhsels had a paper that remarked the same thing - start dates for recessions seemed to be concentrated in the fall. It was the basis for a lot of his work on seasonality. We're accustomed to stripping out the seasonal cycle, assuming that there's no information there about the business cycle; perhaps we shouldn't.
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David - All I know from the SSHRC spreadsheets is that these areas had/have their own committees and budgets.
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Livio - Yes, that's really the issue, that the SSHRC grant program will fall into a death spiral. Low acceptance rates leading to people abandoning SSHRC completely. Frances - Back in 2007 or so, I circulated a letter to econ department chairs making the point that according to SSHRC budgetary policies in force at the time, more money requested for economics projects automatically translated into a bigger economics budget. We could have hired undergrads to write up 6 pages of absolute crap, added a grotesquely-inflated budget and cashed in big time. I suspect that to some extent, this is still the case.
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Bartbeaty - thanks. Given that it was coupled with Fine Arts in last year's competition, that's sort of what I was guessing.
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That's quite enough attitude, thank you.
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We also saw the same thing in Canadian economics departments. Probably other disciplines as well. There were just enough actual cases of people accepting a US job that the threat to leave was usually taken seriously.
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The entire analysis in the paper is at the margin. People may decide that those costs are enough to accept a certain gap between Canadian and US salaries, but there will be some behavioural response if the gap widens. If nothing else, salaries would have to increase to attract people who are just starting out and who haven't yet made those sunk costs.
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Hugo André: The story is really only one for Canada, and maybe some other English-speaking countries, where the threat to emigrate to the US is most credible.
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Vladimir: Yes, I think I used that example in an earlier post. I think I'll add that and the FT story of the bankers' bonus tax to the introduction as anecdotes to illustrate the point. Avon Barksdale: The bargaining power is based on a 'wage arbitrage' story, not monopoly power.
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Frances - Yes, that is an issue. I think the way to address it is for the organizers to fin one or two heavy hitters who are willing to be a good sport and do a poster. In my case, I was able to get Don Andrews to do a poster, and used that as leverage with people who thought they were being relegated to the second tier.
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Yes! Yes! A thousand times yes! I first saw posters at the Bayesian meetings, and I got so much out of them that I insisted on introducing them when I organised the CESGs all those years ago. Add beer and snacks, and it's the best session of any conference you can name.
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No, I can't break it down further than that. There are data by industry, but then you lose the public/private distinction. But there is a huge seasonal spike in public sector layoffs in July; those are presumably teachers. There's also a seasonal spike in public sector hires in May (summer jobs?) and again in September (probably teachers again).
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Nick: No, the current labour force status is reported as 'unemployed'. If they were retired, it would be 'not in labour force.' Frances: That's what I was thinking as well. A public sector worker is probably more likely to be in a position to accept a short transition in and out out unemployment during what is essentially a job-to-job transition.
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Oof. This hits home. I'm trying to do something similar (there's a post upcoming), and it's just as frustrating
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I prefer the word 'conjuncture' as well - it's the label for my file folder with all my current analysis stuff.
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Kevin - 380-0080 doesn't break down federal govt spending/revenues by province.
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The drop in GDI has been pretty large. For GDP, I'm also thinking of transition costs associated with a structural shift.
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How about as an oil price shock with the signs reversed because we're an oil exporter?
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I also think a negative productivity shock is how we should be looking at the most recent data. The drop in resource prices has sharply reduced our terms of trade, and that's best interpreted as a negative supply shock. Inflation has been creeping up over the past few months, too. Just what we'd expect from a negative supply shock.
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WCI gets results!
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