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Stephen Gordon
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That's in the first chart, isn't it?
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Nope. This post brings to mind something I wrote a while back: How economic policy analysis is done, and why it's not the same as forecasting
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I love love *love* that baseball bat correlation.
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some economists argue that even lower wages would be better. Really? Name three.
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Leo: No, I can't. The data I have are top-coded, and the truncation is below the 99.9 percentile.
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Possibly, but management isn't just the CEO. There are lots of managers below the 99th percentile, and one might have expected that some of them would have moved above the threshold. Unfortunately, because of the top-coding, I can't check to see if managers' salaries increased more than those in the one per cent. [eta: I see I cross-posted with Colin]
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Frances: I used the thresholds in the Cansim table. The Cansim numbers are based on all tax files, so I thought they'd be more reliable than the subsample in the PUMF. I did check, and the proportion of PUMF incomes above the Cansim thresholds were all close enough to 1% that I'm pretty sure I'm talking about the same people.
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This is why I keep my head down in these types of discussions. The only contribution I can think of making is to try and not be a jerk in my dealings with my female colleagues and students.
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I guess I should direct people to this thing I wrote about 'Dutch Disease'. It turns out that the reason manufacturing sector employment has declined is that the wages there are lower than what is on offer in other sectors.
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Thanks, Livio. Will do.
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I bet it means subsidising well-connected firms.
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Howard: Unless you have evidence that Quebec med schools are overwhelmingly populated by students from low-income households, my point stands.
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A couple of points: 1) Elementary and secondary school are compulsory. The 'public good' argument works more strongly here, because a democracy needs a literate and numerate citizenry. Most of the gains to PSE are private. 2) Sacrificed wages don't enter into it, because parents/guardians are obliged to supply the necessities of life to minor children. If we made PSE compulsory, extended parental obligations to age 22 and ensured that *all programs in all universities were of equal quality*, then extending the elementary/secondary free-tuition model to PSE would work.
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Really great post. I seem to recall that Tammy Schirle put together some graphs tracking incomes of specific cohorts, but now I can't find them.
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Chris J: I didn't. Employment falls in 2009 in all three scenarios. Increasing the minimum wage during a recession worsened job losses that would have happened anywsay. Increasing the minimum wage during a recovery slows the increase in employment.
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Kevin: I was responding to the comment immediately preceding, not yours. Your results and the ones I'm citing have the same sign.
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I don't think so. The minwage/average wage ratio also increased over this time.
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No, these regressions look like log[employment] = elasticity*log[min wage] + controls + e The ratio at the minimum has - unsurprisingly - increased. It's often been remarked that the effect of the minwage on employment gets stronger as it becomes more binding: the Card-Krueger study used data from 1992, after a decade-long freeze in the *nominal* minwage under Reagan. I may get back to this point.
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Maybe 'unpublish' instead of an outright 'delete'? I found this interesting, but then again, I've never given CWEN much thought. It always seemed like something that had nothing to do with me. I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing.
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No kidding. I wonder what the R2 is on that equation - 0.9999?
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You correctly anticipated where I was going to go next with this line of thought!
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Oh no - now you've jinxed it!
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This is an old habit, as far as I can tell.
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I thought it was only me. That's probably a widely-held sentiment.
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Fine, except 1) StatsCan doesn't tell you that. For all anyone knows, these series are completely incompatible. 2) If you look up the IPPI, they don't tell you where the old series are or how/if you can splice them 3) Why don't they do the splicing for us and publish the long series?
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