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Geoff Castle
I'm a financial professional based in North Vancouver, British Columbia
Interests: grouse grind hiker, hockey dad, martini creator, inexpert gardener, and most importantly rock-star wannabe (still living off the glory days of singing pinball wizard for the bain band)
Recent Activity
Hey, Thanks so much. I will give that a try. Geoff
Old TypePad interface set for retirement at the end of May
The original TypePad interface would be turning 7 in 2010. In dog years that's getting on a bit but in web years that's ancient. So it's time to say good bye. At the end of May the old design of the TypePad interface will be retired and will no longer be accessible. So if you are in the small re...
Im usually drafting in Word then copying and pasting. Is there a better way?
Old TypePad interface set for retirement at the end of May
The original TypePad interface would be turning 7 in 2010. In dog years that's getting on a bit but in web years that's ancient. So it's time to say good bye. At the end of May the old design of the TypePad interface will be retired and will no longer be accessible. So if you are in the small re...
I still have some problems with the new typepad. A lot of times the page is slow to load and gets hung on images from prior posts. Also when I copy and paste text into a new post it never quite comes out right and requires a lot of editing. If I have to make a backspace or delete I usually have to start my re-edits over from scratch. I have been using the old interface to compose posts because it seems to give me less grief.
Old TypePad interface set for retirement at the end of May
The original TypePad interface would be turning 7 in 2010. In dog years that's getting on a bit but in web years that's ancient. So it's time to say good bye. At the end of May the old design of the TypePad interface will be retired and will no longer be accessible. So if you are in the small re...
Geoff Castle is now following The Typepad Team
Mar 15, 2010
If you look at the past two fiscal years, net non-cash working capital is not significant, fluctuating in a range of -2 million to + 2 million. Essentially the $20 million of inventory, receivables and prepaids is offset by payables of similar magnitude.
Coastal Contacts - A Hanging Curve Ball
Every now and then you unearth a stock that just seems too cheap, regardless of what is going on in the rest of the universe. Seeing as it is World Series time, it seems appropriate to post on the stock market’s equivalent of the hanging curve ball. Disagree if you must, but my nominee in this...
Hi Wood,
Sometimes in the past I have posted my modelling. I might do that this weekend. In the meantime however, I am forecasting 2009 FY sales of C$136. million and EBITDA of $8.0 million. From the $8.0 million EBITDA, I subtract zero interest, cash taxes estimated at $1.2 million, expansion in net working capital estimated at $0.0 million, and capital expenditures of $1.0 million for a Free Cash Flow run-rate of $5.8 million.
I might as well also elaborate here on the "free cash flow yield is approaching 10%." At $1.25 share price, the market capitalization of Coastal is $72.3 million. From that total, I net out the $14.0 million cash balance that Coastal reported on July 31, to give me an Enterprise Value of $58.4 million. If you divide the unlevered Free Cash Flow into the Enterprise Value you get a FCF yield of 9.9%, which in my books is "approaching" 10%.
Note that Coastal's free cash flow yield is much higher than the free cash yields on a wide variety of "income trusts" from the past five years that actually paid out a distribution much higher than that by borrowing cash to fund distibutions. NOT That I am encouraging management to pay the cash out. These days building a war chest is a pretty sound strategy.
Coastal Contacts - A Hanging Curve Ball
Every now and then you unearth a stock that just seems too cheap, regardless of what is going on in the rest of the universe. Seeing as it is World Series time, it seems appropriate to post on the stock market’s equivalent of the hanging curve ball. Disagree if you must, but my nominee in this...
Hi VG,
Thanks for the question. With respect to barriers to entry on CC, I actually believe they are quite strong. First time online contact lens buyers may shop based on web search, but this business has a very high re-order rate, which means that a big customer list is a really stong competitive asset.
A second barrier to entry relates to certain industry specific scale economies. The first is purchasing power vis-a-vis the large suppliers like Ciba Vision. Leaders in this business will buy at lower costs than start-ups. Moreover numerous fixed costs relate to specific countries. If you need to pay Google for search priority, that is a fixed cost that tracks to a country. If you need to have a legal department to stickhandle through the regulatory roadblocks that optician colleges will try to establish, that is a fixed cost. So you can see how a market leader in online contacts retail can have a significant profitability advantage over new entrants. Successful leaders in this situation typically re-invest a portion of their excess profits in price reductions that further accentuate their relative advantage.
As for discount rate, I wouldn't differentiate between Coastal and a large cap. If you ask me, Bank of Nova Scotia ought to be tagged with a 25% discount rate and Coastal with only 10% because the relative risks are far more significant in the former than the latter.
GC
Coastal Contacts - A Hanging Curve Ball
Every now and then you unearth a stock that just seems too cheap, regardless of what is going on in the rest of the universe. Seeing as it is World Series time, it seems appropriate to post on the stock market’s equivalent of the hanging curve ball. Disagree if you must, but my nominee in this...
Hi Stephen,
For easy stats without having to do too much work, go to www.quantcast.com and just enter your website's URL on their bar. You can also discover traffic and patterns for some larger related sites.
GC
Reader survey: feedback and comments
Well, it's been just over a week since we posted the Reader Survey, which is a good time to take stocks of the responses. Thank you all who responded. It was just sheer curiosity that made me want to find out something about our readers. And perhaps our readers are also curious about other rea...
1. Canadian
2. Between-gigs investment fund manager and blogger (www.marketdepth.typepad.com)
3. MBA, and a bit of a self-taught economist, although my last official economics course was econ 100 at UBC
4. Just discovered this blog today. Very good depth. The internet doesn't have much good Canadian economic commentary and this site is a standout imo. I like the use of data and the depth and quality of the discussion of each post.
Reader Survey
We are just curious to know who is reading this blog, and would love to know a little bit more about you, including those who don't usually comment. 1. What is your nationality or country of residence? (What proportion of our readers are Canadian?). 2. What is your profession/occupation? Private...
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