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Douglas Macer
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Overall Draft Picks and Their Passing Efficiency Ratings As of Week 13 in the current NFL season. New Orleans Saints QB, Drew Brees, who was the first pick in the second round of the 2001 NFL draft, 33rd overall, is the top-rated passer among starting quarterbacks with an efficiency rating of 111.3. Oakland QB, JaMarcus Russell, whose efficiency rating is a league-low 47.7 was chosen first overall in 2007. Other No.1 overall draft picks, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Carson Palmer and Matthew Stafford rank 5th, 12th, 16th, 18th and 31st, respectively. Three quarterbacks who were never drafted, Kurt Warner, Tony Romo and Jake Delhomme, rank 8th, 10th and 32nd. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passer_rating Correlation Analysis Plot passer efficiency rating on the y-axis versus overall draft pick on the x-axis. Since the correlation coefficient, r=-0.02, is not significantly different from zero, efficiency is uncorrelated with overall draft pick. Assuming passing efficiency is a surrogate for winning, the earlier or later a QB was drafted is predictive of neither winning nor losing.
Toggle Commented Dec 12, 2009 on More on Quarterbacks at gladwell.com
Overall Draft Picks and Their Passing Efficiency Ratings As of Week 13 in the current NFL season. New Orleans Saints QB, Drew Brees, who was the first pick in the second round of the 2001 NFL draft, 33rd overall, is the top-rated passer among starting quarterbacks with an efficiency rating of 111.3. Oakland QB, JaMarcus Russell, whose efficiency rating is a league-low 47.7 was chosen first overall in 2007. Other No.1 overall draft picks, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Carson Palmer and Matthew Stafford rank 5th, 12th, 16th, 18th and 31st, respectively. Three quarterbacks who were never drafted, Kurt Warner, Tony Romo and Jake Delhomme, rank 8th, 10th and 32nd. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passer_rating Correlation Analysis Plot passer efficiency rating on the y-axis versus overall draft pick on the x-axis. Since the correlation coefficient, r=-0.02, is not significantly different from zero, efficiency is uncorrelated with overall draft pick. Assuming passing efficiency is a surrogate for winning, the earlier or later a QB was drafted is predictive of neither winning nor losing.
Toggle Commented Dec 11, 2009 on More on Quarterbacks at gladwell.com
Re: Distribution of birth dates among Canadian junior ice hockey players. Dear Malcolm, In the recent 2009 IIHF World Junior Championship, the ice hockey equivalent of US College Football's BCS, Team Canada won its fifth consecutive gold medal. Among the 24 players on the Team Canada roster, 10 were born in Jan-Mar, 6 in Apr-Jun, 4 in Jul-Sep and 4 in Oct-Dec. The disproportionate number of players with birth dates in the first calendar quarter is similar the front-end loading of birth dates you observed among the 2007 Memorial Cup tournament finalists in Chapter 1 of "Outliers." Interestingly, NHL rosters do not appear to be front-loaded, perhaps due to the influx of European-born players. Douglas Macer (a fellow, Canadian ex-pat)
Toggle Commented Jan 10, 2009 on Outliers update at gladwell.com