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Gasbag
California
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“No special treatment for Tesla” Tesla absolutely is getting special treatment as in mistreatment. What is absurd is the notion that a government agency is going to help expedite improvements in AP. There is a race with tremendous financial rewards to whichever company is first. NHTSA’s objective is in fact to slow down improvements via harassment.
“Are we (as a society) better off using batteries in stationary storage or vehicles ?” We will be better off putting batteries in vehicles, adding intelligence to the grid, and incenting a fraction of that capacity to be available for grid storage. This would enable cheap intermittent power sources to dominate the grid.
“However, it isn't that complicated in aggregate,” That is absurd. 20% of all US plugins are sold in Northern California and we get 0% of our electricity from coal. ~50% of all US plugins are sold in California and we get ~4.1% of our electricity from coal. In a few months it will drop to 1.7% and in 2021, when this takes effect, we will be down to 0.6% from coal. And all of those numbers are actually probably high by 10% because none of them factor in behind the meter solar.
...so if I drive 15,000 miles per year I might save up to a tank and a half of gas? Theses MH press releases always seem to confirm the hopelessness of mild-hybrid approach.
“Vehicles with the new 2-speed drive consume less energy, which in turn extends range by up to five percent when compared to a one-speed unit.” 5% though not entirely meaningless is not a game changer. This is a bit less than the Mild hybrid gains by ICE proponents but this requires a fraction of the commitment. If the 3-10% gains reported for MH are the best they can manage then they are doomed.
“In typical Tesla fashion, it misleads grossly by naming the peak rate, which happens for just a few minutes.” Misleads? They actually charge at a higher rate than the250 peak rate advertised albeit for only a few minutes but I don’t think that is misleading. Your average Joe isn’t going to know what that rate means other than it recharges faster than the competition. An engineer or EV driver should know that that isn’t enough information to determine how long it will take to add enough range. For their purposes. GM tells me the Bolt can charge at 80 kW and add 90 miles in 30 minutes. Nissan tells me the Leaf can charge at 100kW and add 90 miles in 30 minutes. User tests of the TM3 show that it can charge at 255 kW and add 150 miles of range in under 15 minutes. It would not be a misrepresentation to suggest that the TM3 will recharge significantly faster than others. As for industry average battery pack costs BNEF tracks and reports those annually. Your estimates were accurate in 2017 but contrary to predictions of naysayers battery pack costs have. continued to decline. In 2018 BNEF reported the industry average as $176 per KWH. For 2019 you can expect BNEF to report ~$150 per kWh and in 2020. ~$125. As you have pointed out there are some that are more expensive.. That also means that there are others which are less expensive. Market leaders will almost certainly make your fantasy of $100 per kWh a reality in2021.
“...That is in cars 4 years old or so.” Why would they limit said update to cars over 4 years old? The simple explanation is the problem has been fixed. Sorry To break the news to you Calgary but Tesla has actually been raising the charging capacity for contemporary vehicles via OTAs. https://www.electrive.com/2019/06/11/tesla-raises-model-3-charge-capacity-to-200-kw/
“According to experts, the average service life of today’s lithium-ion batteries is 8-10 years or between 500 and 1,000 charge cycles. Battery” Who are these experts ? 8 year warranties generally equate to considerably longer expected life spans. 20 years ago when we were pioneering high performance Flash based SSDs our flash manufacturer warranted their flash for 1 million writes but informed us they didn’t actually know how long they would last because they stopped testing at 10 million writes. We began testing them and got a single block failure at 17 million writes and were over 20 million without a second block failure when legal informed us we could not warrant our drives for more than the manufacturer even though we had wear leveling and reserve blocks.
That’s a bit misleading headline. The over all market is down more than alt fuel vehicles so the percentage of AFVs has increased in spite of the loss of incentives. The larger trend is that BEVs are up over 60% both in the month and YTD. Meanwhile diesel is down over 20% and PHEVs are down 50%. Q3 may see the arrival of RHD Tesla M3s in significant Numbers.
In your context “soon” will be 2023. By then CA’s 100 H2 stations will have capacity to serve an installed base of 90,000 H2 vehicles but we will have a projected installed base of 15,000-25,00 H2 vehicles. In contrast CA adds that range of plug-ins each month and will have between 1 and 2 million plug-ins in 2023.
Before I hand down my ruling does the defense have anything more to say?
“The Proterra bus will not do 350 miles in winter conditions. ” Most bus routes cover significantly less than 150 miles per day. Even if winter conditions cut that in half the Proterra is still in good shape to complete the day’s load. If you have routes that need more range per day in most cases you can rotate routes allowing buses with a range surplus alleviate those that might be short.
“SCE closed the plant because they didn't think the government would allow them to run it long enough to recover costs if they fixed it. ” ...so you’re saying if it hadn’t broken down it might still be productive? Diablo Canyon hasn’t broken down and is licensed for another 10 years but is scheduled for shutdown. Hinkley C and Vogtle 3&4 are financial failures that are embarrassments. NuScale is probably nuclear’s best near term hope and they won’t be ready until 2025 at the soonest.
“You know someone is profiting from this, but it sure isn't the California consumer.” California electricity rates are significantly higher than the national average and in spite of all this The average California electricity bill is significantly less than the national average.
“while California may have closed all of their coal fired electric generation, they are still buying coal fired electricity from Utah and Nevada and I am one of the down-winders.” ....and New Mexico but don’t blame CA. Each of these refused lucrative early buyouts. It is the locals that are resisting. Regardless. More than half of our imported coal power will cease in a few months when NGS shuts down in December. Coal electricity imports will drop more than half again in 2021 when SJGS shutters in New Mexico. Utah’s Intermountain plant will stop burning coal in 2024 and that will be the last of the coal sourced electricity for CA. Actually we don’t get electricity generated in Nevada. I think you mean Arizona from NGS.
“IMO, 20-30 mile PHEVs are the place to be - enough battery to do nearly all your daily runs, ” I agree but if you look at GM’s data on trip lengths then you would want something in the order of 50-60 miles AER to accommodate the typicalAmerican drive cycle.
“BEVs, requires a lot of very costly ($30K for 120+ KW) batteries.” You are using industry average pack pricing circa 2016. Your 120 kWh IAPP for 2019 will be below $18,000 and below $15k sometime next year. Your point that batteries are expensive is still valid but you have to realize that cost is a moving target. Follow the bouncing ball and you can see by 2023 ICEVs will have a real problem.
The average park and loop route covers 10 miles. 20-40 miles of range should be plenty for many routes. It would be a major waste to spec all vehicles with 85 miles of range.
Mass produced FCs will not happen in the near term. There are about 300 public H2 stations today and that may double in the next 3-4 years but no one has committed to mass production of FCEVs in that time frame. In order for mass production to become a reality we would need a major breakthrough now. When they have a major breakthrough or a minor one with FCs they will surely let us know. At that point significant increases in production will be at least a few years off. Until then fans will have to be satisfied with the six hand built Mirais per day.
Current LFP products weigh about a third of lead acid equivalent so I would guess you could expect to save two thirds the weight of your existing battery with LFP. The retail cost is probably in the range of 4-5x that of lead acid but manufacturers pay a fraction of retail so you are probably looking at $60-80 added to COGS and $100-200 to the retail price of a car.
“I doubt there IS any market with lower fuel costs” In Europe I Believe they pay $6-7 USD per gallon for gas so H2 @ 14 per Kg would not be a problem. There might be other perks like being able to use these in cities any day of the week and/or avoiding congestion fees. Does anyone know what H2 retails for in Europe, Japan, or South Korea? Are there issues with homologation? Are there H2 refueling system compatibility issues between CA and other regions?
If I’m reading the graph correctly in CY2016 they were leasing less than 3 FCEVs per day and starting in about 2017 that jumped to a little less than 6 vehicles per day. That rate has remained fairly constant. Hyundai has contributed very little to the US total inspite of their bold claims. Meanwhile Honda flatlined a few months ago. Virtually all of these will be in California and are on a three year lease in order to get the CA incentives. It will be interesting to see what happens to the graph in 9 months when 6 vehicles per day start coming off lease. They are in. A tough position in that they can’t lease cars if they don’t include fuel and the retail cost of H2 will resist price declines as long as they are paying for fuel. When these come off lease they may have to ship them to a market with lower retail fuel costs or scrap them.
“, especially with all that torque. ” Contra Rotating Props (CRP) should help avoid an embarrassing mistake. Aside from making life easier for the pilot an advantage is how quickly the plane can be ready for takeoff.
It’s a puddle jumper. They do a lot of tours. Most of their flights are 20-45 minutes. They are a business looking to lower their costs and improve their customer experience. Electricity is readily available and costs significantly less than other fuels. The absence of motor noise would be a significant differentiator between them and their competitors.
“Those 5-5-5 storage units (batteries) ” Those 5-5-5 batteries didn’t happen but we will probably have 10-2-10 batteries soon. Not quite the same but it should be close enough to get the party started.