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“10 miles / KwH is brilliant, way better than everyone else.” Way better than all others would cause concern about credibility. While there are still concerns that that can pull this off their targets are in line with what Lightyear One pulled off in the cruiser class of the world solar Challenge in their 5 seater. Also the Aptera One in their first go round was a four seater so you may yet find it useful.
“They test under wholly artificial lab conditions which do not remotely approach on the road use and then claim or imply that this has something to do with real world usage.” Try re-reading it. What they explicitly suggest is that the data presented be used in lifetime modeling. Implicit in their explicit suggestion is the acknowledgment that the lab results are not equivalent to real world results.
“Reason 1: Around 50% of cars in Europe have nowhere they could reasonably be plugged into at home” Around 100% of ICEVs in Europe have nowhere to reasonably refuel at home. It’s no big deal though. They can refuel elsewhere. Same for your estimated 50%. With a range that equates to recharging typically once every two weeks if they can’t recharge at work or elsewhere. 15 minutes a a fast charger gets you an average weeks worth of driving. “Reason 2: This costs a heck of a lot more than an ICE, rather disguised by subsidies.” I think you meant initial cost. At an equivalent of $6 per gallon it isn’t difficult to save a thousand dollars per year on fuel. More if you factor in maintenance. Over the average life span of the car we would expect the ID3 to actually Cost less. “Reason 3: You might not fancy either spending thousands for a new battery pack when the old one gets tired, or junking your car after 10 years or so.” You might not fancy spending thousands on a new motor for an ICEV when the old one gets tired either. People deal with it. The good news is battery prices are dropping rapidly while batteries are getting improving VAG expects 3 million vehicles per year based on the MEB platform. With that volume in 10 years you should be able to upgrade the battery pack to contemporary-tech At a fraction of the price or sell your car.
I believe 16GWh would be Northvolt’s largest contract and would be adequate for 200k 80kWh vehicles or 400,000 40kWh vehicles. They do have other suppliers; “they [VAG] issued battery supply contracts worth $48 billion with existing battery manufacturers. The contracts are estimated to be for about 300 GWh of battery cells. VW split those billions worth of contracts between several companies: Samsung SDI, LG Chem , SK Innovation, and CATL.”
“No special treatment for Tesla” Tesla absolutely is getting special treatment as in mistreatment. What is absurd is the notion that a government agency is going to help expedite improvements in AP. There is a race with tremendous financial rewards to whichever company is first. NHTSA’s objective is in fact to slow down improvements via harassment.
“Are we (as a society) better off using batteries in stationary storage or vehicles ?” We will be better off putting batteries in vehicles, adding intelligence to the grid, and incenting a fraction of that capacity to be available for grid storage. This would enable cheap intermittent power sources to dominate the grid.
“However, it isn't that complicated in aggregate,” That is absurd. 20% of all US plugins are sold in Northern California and we get 0% of our electricity from coal. ~50% of all US plugins are sold in California and we get ~4.1% of our electricity from coal. In a few months it will drop to 1.7% and in 2021, when this takes effect, we will be down to 0.6% from coal. And all of those numbers are actually probably high by 10% because none of them factor in behind the meter solar. if I drive 15,000 miles per year I might save up to a tank and a half of gas? Theses MH press releases always seem to confirm the hopelessness of mild-hybrid approach.
“Vehicles with the new 2-speed drive consume less energy, which in turn extends range by up to five percent when compared to a one-speed unit.” 5% though not entirely meaningless is not a game changer. This is a bit less than the Mild hybrid gains by ICE proponents but this requires a fraction of the commitment. If the 3-10% gains reported for MH are the best they can manage then they are doomed.
“In typical Tesla fashion, it misleads grossly by naming the peak rate, which happens for just a few minutes.” Misleads? They actually charge at a higher rate than the250 peak rate advertised albeit for only a few minutes but I don’t think that is misleading. Your average Joe isn’t going to know what that rate means other than it recharges faster than the competition. An engineer or EV driver should know that that isn’t enough information to determine how long it will take to add enough range. For their purposes. GM tells me the Bolt can charge at 80 kW and add 90 miles in 30 minutes. Nissan tells me the Leaf can charge at 100kW and add 90 miles in 30 minutes. User tests of the TM3 show that it can charge at 255 kW and add 150 miles of range in under 15 minutes. It would not be a misrepresentation to suggest that the TM3 will recharge significantly faster than others. As for industry average battery pack costs BNEF tracks and reports those annually. Your estimates were accurate in 2017 but contrary to predictions of naysayers battery pack costs have. continued to decline. In 2018 BNEF reported the industry average as $176 per KWH. For 2019 you can expect BNEF to report ~$150 per kWh and in 2020. ~$125. As you have pointed out there are some that are more expensive.. That also means that there are others which are less expensive. Market leaders will almost certainly make your fantasy of $100 per kWh a reality in2021.
“...That is in cars 4 years old or so.” Why would they limit said update to cars over 4 years old? The simple explanation is the problem has been fixed. Sorry To break the news to you Calgary but Tesla has actually been raising the charging capacity for contemporary vehicles via OTAs.
“According to experts, the average service life of today’s lithium-ion batteries is 8-10 years or between 500 and 1,000 charge cycles. Battery” Who are these experts ? 8 year warranties generally equate to considerably longer expected life spans. 20 years ago when we were pioneering high performance Flash based SSDs our flash manufacturer warranted their flash for 1 million writes but informed us they didn’t actually know how long they would last because they stopped testing at 10 million writes. We began testing them and got a single block failure at 17 million writes and were over 20 million without a second block failure when legal informed us we could not warrant our drives for more than the manufacturer even though we had wear leveling and reserve blocks.
That’s a bit misleading headline. The over all market is down more than alt fuel vehicles so the percentage of AFVs has increased in spite of the loss of incentives. The larger trend is that BEVs are up over 60% both in the month and YTD. Meanwhile diesel is down over 20% and PHEVs are down 50%. Q3 may see the arrival of RHD Tesla M3s in significant Numbers.
In your context “soon” will be 2023. By then CA’s 100 H2 stations will have capacity to serve an installed base of 90,000 H2 vehicles but we will have a projected installed base of 15,000-25,00 H2 vehicles. In contrast CA adds that range of plug-ins each month and will have between 1 and 2 million plug-ins in 2023.
Before I hand down my ruling does the defense have anything more to say?
“The Proterra bus will not do 350 miles in winter conditions. ” Most bus routes cover significantly less than 150 miles per day. Even if winter conditions cut that in half the Proterra is still in good shape to complete the day’s load. If you have routes that need more range per day in most cases you can rotate routes allowing buses with a range surplus alleviate those that might be short.
“SCE closed the plant because they didn't think the government would allow them to run it long enough to recover costs if they fixed it. ” you’re saying if it hadn’t broken down it might still be productive? Diablo Canyon hasn’t broken down and is licensed for another 10 years but is scheduled for shutdown. Hinkley C and Vogtle 3&4 are financial failures that are embarrassments. NuScale is probably nuclear’s best near term hope and they won’t be ready until 2025 at the soonest.
“You know someone is profiting from this, but it sure isn't the California consumer.” California electricity rates are significantly higher than the national average and in spite of all this The average California electricity bill is significantly less than the national average.
“while California may have closed all of their coal fired electric generation, they are still buying coal fired electricity from Utah and Nevada and I am one of the down-winders.” ....and New Mexico but don’t blame CA. Each of these refused lucrative early buyouts. It is the locals that are resisting. Regardless. More than half of our imported coal power will cease in a few months when NGS shuts down in December. Coal electricity imports will drop more than half again in 2021 when SJGS shutters in New Mexico. Utah’s Intermountain plant will stop burning coal in 2024 and that will be the last of the coal sourced electricity for CA. Actually we don’t get electricity generated in Nevada. I think you mean Arizona from NGS.
“IMO, 20-30 mile PHEVs are the place to be - enough battery to do nearly all your daily runs, ” I agree but if you look at GM’s data on trip lengths then you would want something in the order of 50-60 miles AER to accommodate the typicalAmerican drive cycle.
“BEVs, requires a lot of very costly ($30K for 120+ KW) batteries.” You are using industry average pack pricing circa 2016. Your 120 kWh IAPP for 2019 will be below $18,000 and below $15k sometime next year. Your point that batteries are expensive is still valid but you have to realize that cost is a moving target. Follow the bouncing ball and you can see by 2023 ICEVs will have a real problem.
The average park and loop route covers 10 miles. 20-40 miles of range should be plenty for many routes. It would be a major waste to spec all vehicles with 85 miles of range.
Mass produced FCs will not happen in the near term. There are about 300 public H2 stations today and that may double in the next 3-4 years but no one has committed to mass production of FCEVs in that time frame. In order for mass production to become a reality we would need a major breakthrough now. When they have a major breakthrough or a minor one with FCs they will surely let us know. At that point significant increases in production will be at least a few years off. Until then fans will have to be satisfied with the six hand built Mirais per day.
Current LFP products weigh about a third of lead acid equivalent so I would guess you could expect to save two thirds the weight of your existing battery with LFP. The retail cost is probably in the range of 4-5x that of lead acid but manufacturers pay a fraction of retail so you are probably looking at $60-80 added to COGS and $100-200 to the retail price of a car.
“I doubt there IS any market with lower fuel costs” In Europe I Believe they pay $6-7 USD per gallon for gas so H2 @ 14 per Kg would not be a problem. There might be other perks like being able to use these in cities any day of the week and/or avoiding congestion fees. Does anyone know what H2 retails for in Europe, Japan, or South Korea? Are there issues with homologation? Are there H2 refueling system compatibility issues between CA and other regions?