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Gasbag
California
Recent Activity
Before I hand down my ruling does the defense have anything more to say?
“The Proterra bus will not do 350 miles in winter conditions. ” Most bus routes cover significantly less than 150 miles per day. Even if winter conditions cut that in half the Proterra is still in good shape to complete the day’s load. If you have routes that need more range per day in most cases you can rotate routes allowing buses with a range surplus alleviate those that might be short.
“SCE closed the plant because they didn't think the government would allow them to run it long enough to recover costs if they fixed it. ” ...so you’re saying if it hadn’t broken down it might still be productive? Diablo Canyon hasn’t broken down and is licensed for another 10 years but is scheduled for shutdown. Hinkley C and Vogtle 3&4 are financial failures that are embarrassments. NuScale is probably nuclear’s best near term hope and they won’t be ready until 2025 at the soonest.
“You know someone is profiting from this, but it sure isn't the California consumer.” California electricity rates are significantly higher than the national average and in spite of all this The average California electricity bill is significantly less than the national average.
“while California may have closed all of their coal fired electric generation, they are still buying coal fired electricity from Utah and Nevada and I am one of the down-winders.” ....and New Mexico but don’t blame CA. Each of these refused lucrative early buyouts. It is the locals that are resisting. Regardless. More than half of our imported coal power will cease in a few months when NGS shuts down in December. Coal electricity imports will drop more than half again in 2021 when SJGS shutters in New Mexico. Utah’s Intermountain plant will stop burning coal in 2024 and that will be the last of the coal sourced electricity for CA. Actually we don’t get electricity generated in Nevada. I think you mean Arizona from NGS.
“IMO, 20-30 mile PHEVs are the place to be - enough battery to do nearly all your daily runs, ” I agree but if you look at GM’s data on trip lengths then you would want something in the order of 50-60 miles AER to accommodate the typicalAmerican drive cycle.
“BEVs, requires a lot of very costly ($30K for 120+ KW) batteries.” You are using industry average pack pricing circa 2016. Your 120 kWh IAPP for 2019 will be below $18,000 and below $15k sometime next year. Your point that batteries are expensive is still valid but you have to realize that cost is a moving target. Follow the bouncing ball and you can see by 2023 ICEVs will have a real problem.
The average park and loop route covers 10 miles. 20-40 miles of range should be plenty for many routes. It would be a major waste to spec all vehicles with 85 miles of range.
Mass produced FCs will not happen in the near term. There are about 300 public H2 stations today and that may double in the next 3-4 years but no one has committed to mass production of FCEVs in that time frame. In order for mass production to become a reality we would need a major breakthrough now. When they have a major breakthrough or a minor one with FCs they will surely let us know. At that point significant increases in production will be at least a few years off. Until then fans will have to be satisfied with the six hand built Mirais per day.
Current LFP products weigh about a third of lead acid equivalent so I would guess you could expect to save two thirds the weight of your existing battery with LFP. The retail cost is probably in the range of 4-5x that of lead acid but manufacturers pay a fraction of retail so you are probably looking at $60-80 added to COGS and $100-200 to the retail price of a car.
“I doubt there IS any market with lower fuel costs” In Europe I Believe they pay $6-7 USD per gallon for gas so H2 @ 14 per Kg would not be a problem. There might be other perks like being able to use these in cities any day of the week and/or avoiding congestion fees. Does anyone know what H2 retails for in Europe, Japan, or South Korea? Are there issues with homologation? Are there H2 refueling system compatibility issues between CA and other regions?
If I’m reading the graph correctly in CY2016 they were leasing less than 3 FCEVs per day and starting in about 2017 that jumped to a little less than 6 vehicles per day. That rate has remained fairly constant. Hyundai has contributed very little to the US total inspite of their bold claims. Meanwhile Honda flatlined a few months ago. Virtually all of these will be in California and are on a three year lease in order to get the CA incentives. It will be interesting to see what happens to the graph in 9 months when 6 vehicles per day start coming off lease. They are in. A tough position in that they can’t lease cars if they don’t include fuel and the retail cost of H2 will resist price declines as long as they are paying for fuel. When these come off lease they may have to ship them to a market with lower retail fuel costs or scrap them.
“, especially with all that torque. ” Contra Rotating Props (CRP) should help avoid an embarrassing mistake. Aside from making life easier for the pilot an advantage is how quickly the plane can be ready for takeoff.
It’s a puddle jumper. They do a lot of tours. Most of their flights are 20-45 minutes. They are a business looking to lower their costs and improve their customer experience. Electricity is readily available and costs significantly less than other fuels. The absence of motor noise would be a significant differentiator between them and their competitors.
“Those 5-5-5 storage units (batteries) ” Those 5-5-5 batteries didn’t happen but we will probably have 10-2-10 batteries soon. Not quite the same but it should be close enough to get the party started.
“Will real fast charging (100 kwh/5minutes) compact-mobile storage units and associated fast charging facilities be around by 2030 or 2040?” Real Fast Charging (RFC) as you define it will probably be available in 2020 but you may need to buy a Tesla Semi in order to utilize it. Tesla demonstrated 100kWh in 90 seconds back in 2013 and piloted that thru 2016 but it was not a financially viable service. They achieved that via battery swapping. There weren’t enough people willing to pay a premium for the service and the price wasn’t close to covering the costs. Tesla’s customer base is expanding rapidly and as battery costs come down swapping becomes less costly also. In the meantime Tesla has increased supercharging to the point that it will now meet the driving habits of most drivers. By that I mean more than three quarters of drivers don’t drive more than 2 hours before taking a 10-20 minute break.
What’s next? It should actually be FCS for the semi and roadster 2.0. As you may recall those were revealed in Late 2017 and according to Elon at that time would start production in late 2019. Gigafactory 3 is also slated to start some production of the M3 in late 2019. That should be interspersed with periodic chest thumping On progress of the supercharger buildout and teasers of the Tesla truck. Dates for one or all may slip into the first half of 2020. One thing that probably won’t slip into 2020 is borrowing another billion or so for these projects.
“The seven-seat interior will be available in 2012.” Seats but no car for eight years? I think we meant 2021. 66 cu ft is a lot for this form factor. How much of that is frunk? I would have liked to have seen the operation of the hatch. No word on towing capability? Available late 2020? Stating that is probably better than saying early 2020 and then delivering token quantities of prototypes and beta units to employees for nine months.
“Days later they reversed course...blah blah blah... That is desperation.” We’ve been hearing of their imminent demise for longer than the Elio is about to be released. Over a decade and counting. The words keep changing but the tune is the same. Chicken Little would be proud. Just for fun Please give us the year in which they will collapse. Mark Spiegle would like to know.
“Considering the limited resources of rare elements, HEVs and PHEVs make much more sense than EVs, ” Not to be pedantic but I think you meant BEVs instead of EVs as EVs includesBEVs, PHEVs, et al. Most rare elements aren’t that rare. They are unprofitable. In 2016 thru the first half of 2018 we saw prices for cobalt, lithium, and spherical graphite double and triple as predicted. Additional sources came online and prices dropped in half. In spite of this industry average prices for batteries dropped by 18%. There are designs for electric motors which don’t use any rare earth elements and batteries that use less of the more expensive elements. If the market dictates then these will come in vogue. With that said I think PHEVs make a lot of sense but more AER is desirable.
“Does this engine feel like a threat to all you EV fans?“ Not at all. I think EV fans view it as a bigger threat to the incumbents. In a REX application it could address all the current short comings of BEVs and accelerate the migration to PHEVs. The bigger problem is that it wasn’t production ready as a REX yesterday. It is unfortunate that the are celebrating a research grant instead of opening a production facility.
This is a significant step forward as it doesn’t require a significant modification of driving habits for most drivers. Market research shows that a super majority of drivers on long trips drive for 1-2 hours and stop for 5-15 minute breaks. The availability of High speed charging is a limitation but one that will likely be addressed in the near term.
“I'm amazed at the commenters here... are bad-mouthing it.” My comments should not be misconstrued as bad mouthing the Achates HOPE engine. I’m still hopeful for them though the fact that Achates is groveling for a pittance in grant money is a reliable sign that commercialization is not imminent. @Gryf What attributes do you think are holding it back in a REX application? Reliability? Noise? Vibrations? Emissions? Cost would not seem to be an issue in volume production.
“ I have a Niro PHEV and like it very much. “ Congrats. Excellent choice. “About 50% of my miles are now EV. “ That would be typical for a PHEV with about 25 miles AER. “Cross country fill-ups take 5min (vs 50min) “ Few people drive cross country on a regular basis who are not professional drivers. If you wanted a BEV for that purpose then the Tesla model 3 would probably be a better choice. Other viable options will be available in the coming years. “and $10,000 cheaper.” Locally the Niro Phevs start at a little over $29k while Chevy Bolts start at a little under $26k before subsidies. TM3s start at about 35k. “Any bets as to when BEVs reach 50% market share? “ EVs will probably reach 50% of new car sales in the US around 2027. Norway is already there. California will probably hit that sometime in 2023.
“Battery has always been 3-5 years away. ” In the past those saying batteries were three to five years away have mostly been either those looking for money to finance their endeavors or fans who were unrealistic. Batteries have now reached the point where they are adequate in all important aspects except two; cost and recharge time. For the next few years we can expect batteries t decline 15-20% per year. That should get the price where it needs to be in three years time. Recharge times wil also continue to improve. Tesla’s announcement tonight puts their product line in the acceptable range. I doubt the rest of the industry is much more than three years behind Tesla.