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Ventura Co
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Thanks for the link to the DodgerSims WAR study. This is the first time I've stumbled across this blog and it appears there is some good statistical discussion here. It was asked how many games and "All Replacement Level" team would win. The "all things being equal" number that is used by the most respected saberists (Tango, Cameron etc...) is 48 wins. But of course all things are NOT equal. A replacement level team in the AL East and AL Central would not be expected to win the same (48) amount of games. The team in the AL East would be playing a much tougher schedule. If you set the replacement win level at 48 in the AL East you will then have the Yankees projected at something like 108 wins and the Red Sox at 106 and the Rays even at 100... this is not reality. I do something different than most and set the replacement win value at different levels for each division based on how many WAR are available in that division. It's my own way of doing things, but just wanted to make my methodology a little more clear. vr, Xei
Toggle Commented Jan 7, 2010 on Projecting the 2010 Red Sox at YFSF
1 reply
To all that responded. If you look at the Ms as is. I posted that the addition of Lee and Figgins was around a 4 win gain, then others said what about Bradley. My response is that "yes" I forgot about him but also forgot about the loss of Branyan and Carp at 1B for now. I would say that is probably a loss of about 0.5 wins right there. So revise my Ms improvement to only 3.5 wins. Most of the illusion of the Ms improvement will be the Angels regressing back down to a low to mid 80s win team. vr, Xei
I don't think a team like the Mariners have improved as much as people think. They've probably improved by about 4 wins, that's all. That may be the most of any team, I haven't thoroughly looked over every team. Lee - Washburn = 3 wins Figgins - Beltre = 1 win Without looking, I'd say that the Orioles improved by more than 4 wins. So at the moment, I'd go with them. They've improved by likely giving their good young players a full time job and typical improvement one would expect from youth. As far as which team has done the worst, I'd agree with the Angels and Blue Jays with the Dodgers and Indians a close 2nd. vr, Xei