Suggest you read Rowe's Goldpunk link. I gotta like a guy this honest: And lets set aside the question of communications. I think I would say that it's the public expectation we want to target. Not sure though. I thought about this once, and came to a conclusion, but I have forgotten what it was. Posted by: Nick Rowe

Wow, Tim, I don't usually read your long rambles, but this is a really good one. How does the attempt at a soft landing after 2000 compare to the periods you review here? I see from your graph of the labor share that there was bubble in mid decade, but I don't remember an inflation problem outside of housing, which indicated to me that cpi was underestimating housing.

Shame on Harvard.

Actually, it does. Average for April in SF is 1.4 inch. May is when rainfall has fallen off the table: nothing significant until October.

Dissonance: you're out of work and your party tells you that you lack the discipline to look for it, but at least they are against abortion and a healthcare mandate.

Where oh where are the Congressional hearings?

Cowen and Rodrik remarks are from Aug 2007: isn't it time to re-evaluate? I nominate Salmon.

You'll need a radiant heater or unshaded south-facing wall to grow tomatoes in Berkeley.

Good word, "shambles." Another is "slouches." The Second Coming by W.B. Yeats Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity. Surely some revelation is at hand; Surely the Second Coming is at hand. The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert A shape with lion body and the head of a man, A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun, Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds. The darkness drops again; but now I know That twenty centuries of stony sleep Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle, And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?